The Monty Hall problem is not a probability puzzle* (It's a challenge in mathematical modelling)

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, ‘Do you want to pick door No. 2?’ Is it to your advantage to switch your choice? The answer is ‘yes’ but the literature offers many reasons why this is the correct answer. This article argues that the most common reasoning found in introductory statistics texts, depending on making a number of ‘obvious’ or ‘natural’ assumptions and then computing a conditional probability, is a classical example of solution driven science. The best reason to switch is to be found in von Neumann's minimax theorem from game theory, rather than in Bayes’ theorem.     

International pharmaceutical supply prices: Definitions — problems — policy implications

In cases where the buyer and the seller of goods and services are companies belonging to the same group the prices charged for goods and services are called ‘international delivery prices’ or ‘international transfer prices’. The peculiarities of research-based companies are such that attempts to ascertain in practice what constitutes an ‘appropriate’ international delivery price are beset by a number of problems. Any scheme that is devised to solve the problems of international transfer prices should feature general ‘rules’ on how the various countries ought to share in central costs. As international transfer prices are a prerequisite for an efficient world economy based on the division of labour an agreement should be reached on the design and content of suitable delivery price systems for a research-intensive industry.     

Your Life Chances Affect Where You Live: A Critique of the ‘Cottage Industry’ of Neighbourhood Effects Research

This article advances a critique of the ‘neighbourhood effects’ genre in urban studies, by arguing that an acceptance of the ‘where you live affects your life chances’ thesis, however well‐intentioned, misses the key structural question of why people live where they do in cities. By examining the structural factors that give rise to differential life chances and the inequalities they produce, and by inverting the neighbourhood effects thesis to: your life chances affect where you live, the problem becomes one of understanding life chances via a theory of capital accumulation and class struggle in cities. Such a theory provides an understanding of the injustices inherent in letting the market (buttressed by the state) be the force that determines the cost of housing and therefore being the major determinant of where people live. The article draws on Marxist urban theory to contend that the residential mobility programs advocated by neighbourhood effects proponents stand on shaky ground, for if it is true that ‘neighbourhood effects’ exceed what would be predicted by poverty alone, moving the poor to a richer place would only eliminate that incremental difference, without addressing the capitalist institutional arrangements that create poverty.     

International entrepreneurship and the small business

The topic of ‘international entrepreneurship’ is becoming increasingly popular with researchers concerned with examining how international and entrepreneurial activities intersect when people in organizations engage in pro-active brokering and risk-taking behaviour in cross-border contexts. Some caution is needed in over-generalizing the meaning and significance of international entrepreneurship – especially in relation to small businesses. Not all entrepreneurial risk-taking, brokering and opportunity-seeking activities lead to internationalization (as the statistics on small business international activities indicate). This might suggest then that the only truly internationally entrepreneurial firms are those that are ‘born global’. However, their entrepreneurial activities are more ‘spatial’, concerned with what can be constructed again in relation to global markets rather than in relation to the local/regional context in which the business is located. For small firms that internationalize a few years after start-up (late starters), processes of international entrepreneurship are different. For ‘later starters’, international entrepreneurship is distinctive in that it is characterized by extending and modifying entrepreneurial understandings and practices that have been socially constructed in relation to the local and regional context in which the small firm is located.     

CANTILLON AND HUME ON MONEY AND BANKING: THE FOUNDATIONS OF TWO THEORETICAL TRADITIONS

The distinction between the ‘classical’ monetary theory and ‘quantity’ theory has been proposed in literature on money and banking. The overall feature of the classical theory of money is that it holds one principle of regulation for each kind of issue (metallic money, bank issues and paper money) whereas the quantity theory applied the causality and proportionality postulates for all kinds of monies. Without claiming to adjudicate the validity of such a distinction, the paper investigates the foundation of each tradition. In this respect, this paper, respectively, examines, and provides a survey of the secondary literature on, Cantillon's Essai and the Hume's Discourses.     

The effects of accounting regulations on stock valuation and volatility: Evidence from the banking industry

Banking regulators and market participants learn from price signals in the stock market (e.g., Flannery, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 30: 273, 1998). Therefore, the system becomes more secure and developed as stock prices become more informative about banks’ financial conditions. Using a sample that includes major banks from 35 countries, this study investigates how accounting regulations affect bank stock valuation and volatility. The evidence suggests that bank stocks have higher valuation and lower volatility in countries that strictly regulate the quality of external audits and financial statement transparency. This study presents a comprehensive picture of the effects of bank accounting regulations on the stock market.     

A Computational Dynamic Model of Strategic Behavior in the US Retail Banking Market

This paper examines the dynamics of bank strategies and performance in retail deposit markets. I develop an infinite‐horizon computational dynamic equilibrium duopoly model of value‐maximizing banks. It is used to analyze several critical aspects of behavior in local banking markets such as price and non‐price competition, strategic interactions between small and large banks, de novo bank growth, and consumer switching. The results suggest that growing banks offer higher deposit interest rates than established banks. Established banks are more likely to engage in non‐price competition, which can impede the effectiveness of de novo bank strategies and growth. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Accounting and the Truth of Earnings Reports: Philosophical Considerations

This paper investigates the philosophical nature of accounting reports of earnings. Standard setters' authoritative pronouncements (conceptual frameworks, GAAP, EITFs, etc.) hold to the realist philosophical view that true earnings reports are ex post representations of some ex ante out-there, preexisting, extra-linguistic real economic increase in the enterprise's wealth. Contra this view, in practice financial accounting executives, in league with investment analysts, routinely engage in earnings management and manipulation in order to satisfy the capital market's insatiable demands for earnings levels which will support and enhance the enterprise's stock market price. The paper considers this state of affairs from Harold Frankfurt's truth, lies and ‘bullshit’ treatise (2005, 2006). It sees earnings reports as ‘short of lies’, and so the accountants can only be faulted for their indifference to the truth and for giving the impression that they are trying to present the truth. A poststructuralist philosophical perspective, however, problematizes this conclusion on the basis that accounting language is not a transparent medium but rather is the material used to manufacture accounting ‘truths’. It sees accounting ‘truths’ as contingent upon linguistic doctrinal accounting discourses currently ceded place of privilege by standard setters and upon the subjective considerations of accountants when they produce reports of earnings. The paper concludes that both Frankfurt's perspective and that of poststructuralist philosophers can provide valuable insights into this ironic state of affairs.     

Measuring workplace internationalization: incorporating self-reported measures of international engagement

This paper constructs a multi-criterion index to assess the degree of workplace internationalization in Canadian workplaces in a major nationally representative dataset – the Workplace and Employee Survey. The measure, referred to as the degree of workplace internationalization (DWI) index, is designed to capture an inclusive representation of internationalization consistent with globalization. It is made up of two parts: an observed measurement component and a self-reported component. The observed measurement component is the sum of two ratios: ‘foreign sales to total sales’ and ‘foreign ownership to total ownership’. The self-reported component is the summed result of two scale measurements: ‘importance of international competition’ and ‘importance of expanding into new geographic markets’. The value-added of the DWI index is the self-reported component, which integrates the consequences (importance of international competition) and opportunities (importance of expanding into new geographic markets) of globalization. The index is developed and verified in three stages. The first describes an effort to ensure measurement validity. The second stage examines the index's measurement reliability by subjecting the DWI index to statistical tests common to psychometric theory of index building. In the third stage, the index is decomposed into an observed measurement component and a self-reported component. In separate tests, these components, along with the DWI index as a whole, are regressed against two sets of measures with known relationships with internationalization: the propensity to innovate, and the use of conceptual training programmes. The main result is that the index as a whole serves as the better proxy of workplace internationalization. Finally, it is argued to be an improvement on existing measures of internationalization.     

Central bank hawks unlikely to gain the ascendancy

• ? Although further financial market weakness could delay or scale back central bank tightening this year, the waters are being muddied by the perception that underlying inflation pressures are building and that past exceptional measures to counter downside risks may no longer be needed. On balance, we think that it is more likely that central banks will push back, rather than bring forward, rate hikes, especially if the recent oil price weakness persists.
• ? The most crucial issues for the path of monetary policy are likely to be the outlook for inflation and the risks to growth prospects. While there may be grounds to reverse past ‘insurance’ cuts in interest rates, only a slow pace of normalisation is justified at present, in our view. In Europe in particular, sustained lowflation remains a risk.
• ? Central banks may develop a taste for raising rates if they perceive the neutral interest rate to be trending up. There may also be a desire to normalise policy to create space for future loosening, but this will only affect policy at the margin. Meanwhile, although problems such as banking troubles and the zombification of firms are often blamed on low interest rates, they are probably more a symptom of low growth and other more structural issues. Raising interest rates is unlikely to resolve these problems.
• ? At the margin, central bank behaviour may become less dovish. However, with the global economy slowing and some recession warning indicators flashing amber, the wings of the hawks will likely remain clipped.

     

Economic Outlook 1991–1995: The London Business School with Gower Publishing: Forecast Release: THE CHANCELLOR'S ECONOMIC ADVICE

Within the last month the Chancellor has made two important speeches on macroeconomic policy. The first, to Surrey businessmen in June, pledged the UK to the French route to a ‘virtuous circle of low inflation, rising competitiveness and increasing market share’; the second, in July to the European Policy Forum, vigorously defended his present policy against the alternatives, which he dismissed as ‘illusory or destined to fail’, of devaluation or cutting interest rates. On both occasions Mr. Lamont placed the permanent conquest of inflation at the centre of his policy, arguing that holding sterling at its present central parity of DM 2.95 is the only way to achieve this objective. In his view the consequence of any of the alternative proposals would be ‘either higher interest rates, higher inflation, or most likely both’. In this Forecast Release we consider these claims and the economic advice on which it is based. On the latter we would surmise that the thrust of the advice which Mr. Lamont is receiving is that he has the opportunity to deliver a sustainably low inflation rate and that this requires a stable pound within the ERM. The alternatives involve a sterling devaluation which, no matter how obtained, would obstruct the goal of permanently low inflation in return for only transient benefits on output and unemployment. But the price of defeating inflation has been high and is not yet fully paid. Moreover the goalposts have been moved: to reach the French position on competitiveness, which underpins their gains in market share and which has taken the best part of a deeade to achieve, requires a still better inflation performance on the part of the UK and while this is being achieved, adjustment costs will persist. It is partly in defence of his own policies and partly in an attempt to moderate the already-high adjustment costs that Mr. Lamont has adopted a more combative stance. His advice is that to compete with Europe, we cannot award ourselves pay increases far in excess of European levels, indeed we need a period of below-average pay rises.     

The measurement of the gains or losses to an enterprise through relative price changes: The terms-of-trade effect and real income

This paper provides a framework for measuring the terms-of-trade effect for an enterprise. This effect is the impact on the organization of changes in input to output prices as well as in the prices of goods and service upon which the income is utilized. The measurement of the effect is outlined with illustrative data and applied to the German Telecom sector, which has suffered particularly badly through adverse relative price changes. The case study of the German Telecom sector is also used to introduce the concept of real income. The framework advocated is argued to be particularly useful, since it allows not only the effects ex post of relative price movements to be evaluated, but also the effects ex ante of particular spending scenarios to be simulated (for example, investment). As such, it should be a useful addition to the ‘toolbag’ of managerial economists.     

Selection in a field experiment with voluntary participation

The external validity of experiments in economics can be ensured only if participants reflect the relevant market population. We study data from a promotional campaign of NH‐Hoteles to study sample selection problems in a gift exchange field experiment. The promotion allowed guests to pay any non‐negative amount for a stay in one of 36 hotels in Belgium and the Netherlands. We distinguish between involuntary participants, who booked prior to the announcement of the promotional campaign, and voluntary participants, who booked after the campaign was announced. The involuntary participants pay, on average, substantially more. This different behavior cannot be explained by differences in satisfaction or observed compositional differences between both groups. During the promotion we varied the posted price of a room that was communicated to the guests. Only the involuntary participants respond to this exogenous variation in the posted price. We argue that the promotional campaign mainly attracted individuals with relatively few prosocial reputational concerns, because they benefit most from a name‐your‐own‐price scheme. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Methodology in International acquisitions: An exploratory study

There has been relatively little empirical research into international acquisition methodology; this article examines several strategy and methodology issues through an exploratory approach based mainly on seven detailed case studies of UK-based companies. The research suggests, inter alia, that there has been greater concentration not only in terms of product categories but also in geographic markets, that the companies had well-established acquisition and country screening criteria and that for important acquisitions there is concern to achieve a detailed ‘strategic fit’. The article concludes by making tentative recommendations for company management regarding acquisition analysis.     

Canada's Housing Bubble Story: Mortgage Securitization,the State,and the Global Financial Crisis

Canada's experience during and after the financial crisis appears to distinguish it from its international peers. Canadian real estate sales and values experienced record increases since the global financial crisis emerged in 2008, rather than declines, and Canada did not witness any bank failures. The dominant trope concerning Canada's financial and housing markets is that they are sound, prudent, appropriately regulated and ‘boring but effective’. It is widely assumed that Canadian banks did not need, nor receive, a ‘bailout’, that mortgage lending standards remained high, and that the securitization of mortgages was not widespread. The truth, however, does not accord with this mainstream view. In fact, the Canadian financial and housing markets reveal marked similarities with their international peers. Canada's banks needed, and received, a substantial ‘bailout’, while federal policies before and after the financial crisis resulted in the massive growth of mortgage securitization and record household indebtedness. This article documents the growth of Canada's housing bubble, the history of mortgage securitization, and of government policies implemented before and after the crisis. Instead of making the Canadian financial and housing sectors more resilient and sustainable, the outcomes of state responses are best understood as regressively redistributive.     

Identification and Estimation Issues in Exponential Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models

Exponential smooth transition autoregressive (ESTAR) models are widely used in the international finance literature, particularly for the modelling of real exchange rates. We show that the exponential function is ill‐suited as a regime weighting function because of two undesirable properties. Firstly, it can be well approximated by a quadratic function in the threshold variable whenever the transition function parameter γ, which governs the shape of the function, is ‘small’. This leads to an identification problem with respect to the transition function parameter and the slope vector, as both enter as a product into the conditional mean of the model. Secondly, the exponential regime weighting function can behave like an indicator function (or dummy variable) for very large values of γ. This has the effect of ‘spuriously overfitting’ a small number of observations around the location parameter μ. We show that both of these effects lead to estimation problems in ESTAR models. We illustrate this by means of an empirical replication of a widely cited study, as well as a simulation exercise.     

A BIBLIOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE TOP FIVE ECONOMICS JOURNALS DURING 2012–2016

This study presents a bibliometric analysis of the top five economics journals during the period 2012–2016 and provides helpful insights into the document types, the distribution of country/territories, the distribution of institutions, the geographical distribution of authors, the most active authors and their research interests or fields, the co‐authorship network, and global/local cooperation. This paper also provides valuable information about the core historical references and the hottest new papers through co‐citation analysis and citation analysis. A co‐word analysis based on the keywords and thematic noun‐phrases in the titles and abstracts of the sample papers was used to explore the hot research topics in the top five journals (e.g. ‘price’, ‘game’, ‘consumption’, ‘income’, ‘international trade’, ‘employment’, ‘monetary policy’, ‘welfare effects’ and ‘developing countries’). In addition, a comparative keyword analysis was used to explore the differences in the directions and characteristics of each journal and the changes in research focuses between ‘new’ and ‘old’ studies. The analytical methods of this study differ from those of reviews or previous studies, and the results fill the gaps not covered by those works.     

Estimation and testing for a partially linear single-index spatial regression model

ABSTRACT

Observations recorded on ‘locations’ usually exhibit spatial dependence. In an effort to take into account both the spatial dependence and the possible underlying non-linear relationship, a partially linear single-index spatial regression model is proposed. This paper establishes the estimators of the unknowns. Moreover, it builds a generalized F-test to determine whether or not the data provide evidence on using linear settings in empirical studies. Their asymptotic properties are derived. Monte Carlo simulations indicate that the estimators and test statistic perform well. The analysis of Chinese house price data shows the existence of both spatial dependence and a non-linear relationship.     

Reinventing auditing,redefining consulting and independence

This paper deals with recent developments in auditing, taking KPMG's ‘business measurement process’ as its example. From this example it is discussed how and why auditing is currently being ‘reinvented’. The ‘reinvention’ of auditing, it is argued, represents a fundamental break with the established epistemological dualism between auditing and management advisory services,¹ that is central to most literature on auditor independence, including the European Commission's Green Paper. Consequently, it is not only auditing that is being reinvented, it is also consulting and independence, and the consequences of this rupture are finally discussed. The paper concludes that the auditor cannot be independent because auditing is no longer independent.