Classification of Growth Clubs and Convergence： Evidence from Panel Data in China, 1981-2004

This paper uses provincial panel data to examine club convergence in China during 1981–2004. We estimate the province‐specific initial technology level, A(0), and classify the Chinese economy into “developed club” and “underdeveloped club” based on the economic characteristics of A(0), instead of on geographical location. We find significant evidence of conditional convergence across provinces, and that the convergence speed in the developed club is faster than that in the underdeveloped club. We also find that: (i) human capital accumulation contributes more than physical capital does to club convergence; (ii) there is a positive correlation between infrastructure and growth convergence at the national level and within the developed club, while the spillover effect of infrastructure has not been developed in the developing club; and (iii) the effect of economic openness on convergence is tiny, and insignificant across and within clubs.     

Inflation and Economic Growth in China： An Empirical Analysis

Using official provincial data for gross provincial product, consumer price index and other explanatory variables from 1986 to 2006, the present paper investigates the nonlinear effects of inflation on economic growth in China. The main finding of the study is that the inflation threshold effect is highly significant and robust in China. Above the 2.50 percent threshold, every 1‐percentage point increase in the inflation rate impedes economic growth by 0.61 percent; below this threshold, every 1‐percentage point increase in the inflation rate stimulates growth by 0.53 percent. This indicates that high inflation harms economic growth, whereas moderate inflation benefits growth. We suggest that China should maintain a moderate inflation rate for long‐run growth.     

Measures of human capital and the mechanics of economic growth

We examine the mechanism by which human capital affects economic growth and convergence, using provincial level panel data from China. We specify alternative measures of human capital and apply them to an enhanced growth model, which we estimate parametrically, nonparametrically, and with a threshold model. Our results show that economic convergence is pronouncedly conditional on human capital across all measures. The positive “benefit of being backward” due to lower initial income is almost trumped by the negative impact of low levels of human capital in the poorest areas.     

Convergence Triggers in Africa: Evidence from Convergence Clubs and Panel Models

This paper investigates the formation of convergence clubs and examines the drivers of growth convergence in Africa by accounting for individual heterogenous effects and establishing transitional paths. We particularly employ the sophisticated log t test to identify underlying convergence clubs and use LSDVC as a benchmark model for analysing the drivers of convergence. We also apply the System Generalized method of moments (GMM) model for sensitivity purposes. Our results reveal four core convergence clubs; seemingly characterised by the measures of institutional stability with distinct transitional paths. We consequently highlight the importance of initial conditions, human capital and institutions in the formation of convergence clubs. Thus, the paper provides insights into the adoption of differentiated development policies consistent with the specific conditions of African countries with the integration agenda driven by accelerated levels of human capital development and technological progress.     

The convergence dynamics of economic freedom across U.S. states

This study tests for convergence in economic freedom across the 50 U.S. states from 1981 to 2019. In particular, we test for stochastic convergence in overall economic freedom using unit root tests that account for structural breaks and bounded processes, two sources of parameter instability. We find limited evidence of stochastic convergence. Further analysis of relative (club) convergence and weak σ-convergence rejects the presence of overall convergence in the panel of the U.S. states, but the emergence of two convergence clubs with respect to state-level economic freedom. The logit analysis of the determinants of the convergence clubs reveals that more prosperous states and states with a higher initial level of economic freedom have a higher probability of being in the club with more economic freedom. However, more racially diverse states have a lower probability of being in the club with more economic freedom.     

A GROWTH MODEL FOR SOUTH AFRICA

We examine the South African growth experience during 1960‐2005 using an intertemporal growth model. The model combines old growth theory investment dynamics and new growth theory endogenous productivity growth. The consumption and investment decisions are intertemporal and assume open capital markets. Structural change is captured by separating the traded and nontraded sectors, and sectoral productivity growth is determined in a barriers‐to‐growth framework. Calibration of the model shows how the growth experience combines neoclassical convergence, technology spillovers with barriers and productivity‐investment interaction. Counterfactual analysis shows the growth costs of sanctions and protectionism. The suggested model is an alternative to existing growth modelling in South Africa, in which investments are short‐sighted and productivity growth is imposed exogenously.     

政府间转移支付与省际经济收敛

本文通过对分税制以来中国省际面板数据的计量分析,检验了不同类型的政府间转移支付对省际经济收敛作用的影响。分析结果显示,转移支付从总体上发挥了缩小区域间经济差距的作用,有助于省际经济收敛,具有正的乘数效应,长期看有利于经济增长。其中财力性转移支付和专项转移支付具有显著均等化作用,而且财力性转移支付明显有利于经济增长,而税收返还倾向于扩大地区经济的差距。检验结果与目前转移支付的结构变化趋势是吻合的。     

Regional convergence under declining population: The case of Japan

Using regional data from Japan, we examine how population growth affected regional convergence in Japan, where population decline has become conspicuous in several regions. The basic equation in the analysis allows two distinct features that previous studies rarely explored. First, we allow the coefficient of initial per capita output to change when the growth rate of population is lower than a threshold value. Second, we allow the growth rate of population to have ambiguous effects on the growth rate of per capita output. Our estimation results confirm the convergence hypothesis in Japan. However, we find that the declining speed of convergence was more conspicuous in the regions that had negative population growth. We also find that the decline in population growth, which was irrelevant for regional economic growth before 1995, came to have harmful impacts on regional economic growth after 1995. We believe this occurred because in societies with declining populations, economies of agglomeration had more significantly disappeared in poorer regions than in richer regions.     

Impact of China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment on Its Regional Economic Growth

This paper investigates the impact of China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) on its economic growth. By using a provincial‐level panel dataset and applying fixed‐effects and instrumental variable regression techniques, the study finds that both OFDI from provincial firms and OFDI from state‐owned enterprises have a positive impact on China's provincial economic growth. The positive impact of OFDI on provincial economic growth may be the result of reverse knowledge spillovers from OFDI to the home provincial economy through demonstration and imitation, labor movement, and backward and forward industrial linkages, thus increasing the productivity and the efficiency of home firms and promoting the growth of the home economy.     

Changing Engines of Growth in China： From Exports, FDI and Marketization to Innovation and Exports

This paper investigates the changing sources of growth in post-reform China. Using crossprovince regressions, this paper finds that, in earlier periods, exports, foreign direct investment and marketization were significantly related to per capita income growth, whereas＇ since the late 1990s, foreign direct investment and marketization have lost their significance and have been replaced by new sources of growth, such as innovation and knowledge, with only exports continuing to be important. This finding is robust after controlling for other variables representing other economic policies and provincial characteristics. We also tackle the possible endogeneity of innovation variables using the instrumental variables estimation method.     

Chinese Regions in the Great Divergence: Provincial Gross Domestic Product per Capita, 1873–1918

We construct 1912/18 Chinese provincial gross domestic product per capita from primary sources and project cross‐sections for 1873 and 1893. The results fit the historical record. We hypothesise that regionally specific conflicts have a role to play in explaining differential growth rates, and that geography, governance, and sectoral structures explain relative income‐level rankings. China's richest provinces matched Europe's poorest. A divergence did indeed occur, but our estimates show that at a broader economic level, it was perhaps not as dramatic as some of the literature implies.     

Productivity, innovation and ICT in Old and New Europe

This paper investigates the productivity performance of CEE countries vis-à-vis the EU-15 during the 1990s to detect sources of convergence between the two regions. The paper shows that changes in labour intensity have been an important source of productivity convergence during the 1990s, and are likely to remain so in the near future. It is also found that despite lower income levels, ICT capital in the CEE-10 has contributed as much to labour productivity growth as in the EU-15. Industry analysis shows that manufacturing industries that have invested heavily in ICT have been key to the restructuring process. As such ICT may therefore have been an important source of growth but probably temporary source of convergence. In the longer run the impact of ICT on growth will have to come primarily from its productive use in services. The paper therefore includes a New Economy Indicator that reflects the existence of conducive environment for continued ICT investment and diffusion. It shows that further reforms are much needed for CEE countries to enter a second convergence phase in the coming decades.This paper is written as part of a project on Information & Communication Technologies as Drivers of Economic Development in Post-Communist Countries sponsored by USAid (Grant No. 220/001.6). The industry data for the EU-15 (section 4) are updated estimates derived from a study sponsored by DG Enterprise of the European Union (OMahony and van Ark 2003). We are grateful to Robert Inklaar and Edwin Stuivenwold for statistical assistance, and to various commentators on this paper at seminars and workshops. We benefited in particular from comments by Bart Los and Marcel Timmer. The authors are solely responsible for the results presented and any remaining omissions.     

Do Inland Provinces Benefit from Coastal Foreign Direct Investment in China?

Foreign direct investment (FDI) in China is heavily concentrated in the coastal regions. Do inland provinces benefit from coastal FDI? We use a provincial‐level panel dataset and employ the fixed‐effects instrumental variables regression technique to investigate the interregional spillovers from coastal FDI to inland provinces. The study finds that, on average, coastal FDI has a negative impact on the economic growth of inland provinces. In addition, depending on the different trade activities engaged in (i.e. whether processing trade or ordinary trade), coastal FDI has different impacts on the economic growth of inland provinces.     

Understanding openness and productivity growth in China: An empirical study of the Chinese provinces

This paper investigates the effects of openness on China's regional productivity growth. We build a model of technology diffusion in which follower economies achieve productivity growth by taking advantage of technology spillovers from the world technology frontier. We hypothesize that China's regional productivity growth is a positive function of regional openness and a negative function of the current level of regional productivity. Empirical analysis in this paper focuses on how openness affects productivity growth in the Chinese provinces. We examine two effects of openness on regional productivity growth in China: the direct growth effect and the convergence effect. By using a variety of panel data regression techniques, we show that the direct growth effect of openness is the main effect while the convergence effect is insignificant. The findings of this paper lend strong support to the claim that the opening-up of China promotes the country's economic growth.     

African Development: Beyond Income Convergence

In examining some big questions on African development, I provide evidence that the dynamics of some development indicators could support both endogenous and neoclassical growth theories in the convergence debate. This paper investigates convergence in real per capita gross domestic product and inequality‐adjusted human development in 38 African countries, disaggregated into 10 homogenous panels based on regions (Sub‐Saharan and North Africa), income levels (low, middle, lower middle and upper middle), legal origins (English common law and French civil law) and religious dominations (Christianity and Islam). The main finding is that the income component of the Human Development Index moves slower than others in the convergence process, and thus requires a more focused policy intervention. As a policy implication, looking beyond income convergence can provide a concrete agenda for development involving all aspects of economic, institutional and social life.     

Spatial externalities in China regional economic growth

Using spatial econometric techniques, this paper presents an empirical analysis of the growth performances of Chinese prefectures over 1991 to 2007 period. Based on the Solow growth theory with technology spillovers, a Spatial Durbin growth model recently developed is employed to capture the spatial externalities. We find strong evidence of positive spatial dependence between Chinese prefectures after 1991. Apart from the usual divergence conclusions, we find evidence for significant conditional convergence force when the spatial spillover effects are controlled. Our results also indicate the competition effect of capital accumulation and urbanization growth among neighboring regions. Moreover, spatial convergence clubs are detected and the spatial interactions and growth behavior varies.     

High‐speed Rail and Urban Economic Growth in China after the Global Financial Crisis

High‐speed rail (HSR) has been an important driver of China's economic expansion over the last decade. Using data of 285 prefecture‐level cities over 2010–2014, this paper proposes an endogenous economic growth model to explain how and why HSR may have propelled China's economic growth by reducing the time‐space between cities. The research results show that HSR has a potent effect on urban economic growth and regional convergence. Ceteris paribus, HSR appears to have accelerated economic growth by more than 0.6 percent and the pace of regional economic convergence by approximately 2 percent per annum over the data period. Our research findings have important policy implications for the sustainability of China's economic development, backed by HSR.     

SOURCES OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER IN SUB‐SAHARAN AFRICA1

This paper provides some empirical evidence on the sources of growth in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA). Within the classical convergence framework, several macroeconomic, socio and political factors are identified as affecting the steady state growth paths of the SSA countries. The rejection of the constant technology growth rate assumption implied by the linearised Solow‐Swan growth specification suggests differences in the economies' technology growth rates. An endogenous technology growth model is estimated to measure contributions of diminishing returns and technology transfer to the rate of conditional convergence in the region. The results carry important policy implications for improving the standard of living and economic growth rate of African countries.     

Local Government Debt,Factor Misallocation and Regional Economic Performance in China

This paper examines total factor efficiency and productivity performance by taking into account local government debt (LGD) in 31 Chinese provincial regions for the period 2000–2013. The results show that neglecting LGD may overstate economic performance in Chinese provinces. The eastern region shows better performance in single factor efficiency and total factor efficiency than the non‐eastern regions. The western region shows the worst total factor performance. The north‐eastern region is the only region that has experienced a decline in total factor performance. The state‐dominated, investment‐driven development model may help technological progress across Chinese regions but could lead to significant factor misallocation. We argue that biases towards more state‐dominated investment and land supply in less productive western, central and north‐eastern regions, at the expense of investment and land supply in more productive eastern regions, have contributed to the recent slowdown in economic growth in China. Therefore, further market‐oriented reforms in factor markets should be considered in the future.     

Economic Convergence in the African Continent: Closing the Gap

The paper attempts to analyse the conditional β‐convergence and its sources for 32 African countries over the period 1960‐2008. The augmented Solow model with both gross domestic product (GDP) per worker and per capita income is estimated using the dynamic system generalized methods of moments (GMM) technique with the panel data. This is the first study on the sources of conditional β‐convergence for African countries. According to the results of the augmented Solow model, income convergence rates are lower than those of GDP per worker. Moreover, total factor productivity convergence, human capital convergence and capital labour convergence are contributing towards the convergence of GDP per worker in Africa. This means that growth in the poorest African countries is being augmented by “catch‐up factor,” which is good news for them. However, convergence in terms of GDP per worker is not being fully translated into income per capita convergence. The demographic structure in the African continent with its record of persistent population growth has played an important role in lowering the income convergence of its countries.