中国企业“走出去”的政治风险防范:利比亚危机的启示

利比亚危机给中国"走出去"的企业如何应对政治风险具有案例式的启示作用。文章认为,应加强我国国外投资企业的政治风险评估和政治风险预警,通过制定亏损准备金制度、与东道国签订双边投资保证协定和建立完善问责机制等措施规避政治风险,同时妥善处理好政治风险善后问题,化被动为主动。     

全球化进程中的美国次贷危机和中国经济安全

美国次贷危机于2007年4月爆发,目前正演变为全球性的金融危机和经济危机,其“蝴蝶效应”在全球范围不断扩大：多家金融机构出现巨额亏损甚至倒闭,股市债市剧烈波动,通胀加剧,信贷紧缩,各国实体经济也陷入衰退风险。随着全球化已经成为当代世界的发展潮流和客观趋势,中国参与全球化程度的不断深化,美国次贷危机也对中国的银行保险业、外汇储备、工业企业、国家财政、股市楼市汇市、就业需求、CPI等产生了明显或潜在的深刻影响。为了更好地规避经济危机,实现整体国民经济的可持续健康发展,政府层面要重新定位全球化时代的中国经济安全,监管与服务并重,以防范全球性的金融风险;银行业层面要开拓一条中国特色的金融创新道路;国民层面要养成传统文化和现代文明相结合的消费习惯。     

Monetary Policy and Sectoral Bank Lending in Malaysia

Abstract

Unlike most studies on the effect of monetary policy on bank lending, this article intends to answer the question whether the tightening of monetary policy in Malaysia before and after the financial crisis in 1997 affected differently the commercial bank lending to various sectors of the economy. To achieve the objective, Vector Autoregressive Regression (VAR) method was used to generate impulse response function and variance decomposition to trace the impact of a shock in monetary policy on bank lending in Malaysia. The results show that a monetary policy tightening in Malaysia gives a negative impact on all the sectors. Analyzing sectoral responses to monetary shocks, evidence is found that some sectors are more affected than the others. The manufacturing, agricultural, and mining sector seems to decline more than the aggregate bank lending in response to interest rate shock.     

Budgeting in Times of Economic Crisis

This article examines how corporate reliance on budgets is affected by major changes in the economic environment. We combine survey and archival data from the economic crisis that began in 2008. The results indicate that budgeting became more important for planning and resource allocation but less important for performance evaluation in companies affected more strongly by the 2008 economic crisis. Additional evidence from interviews and data gathered in a focus group further illustrate these results and show the changes organizations have introduced to respond to the economic crisis. Taken together, and contrary to more general conclusions from the literature such as an overall increase or decrease in the importance of budgeting, we find that companies emphasize certain budgeting functions over others during economic crises.     

我国P2P网络借贷风险防范及发展前景

随着网络技术的发展和网络的普及,一种新的P2P网络借贷模式出现在人们视野之中。从2007年在国内兴起至今,P2P网络借贷已发展出不同的模式,改善了民间借贷困难的状况,但也一直伴随着巨大的风险问题。本文通过分析P2P网络借贷的不同模式,以失败的网络借贷公司案例引出贷款人、借款人、经营者以及国家与社会四方所面临的风险并提出风险防范的建议,最后阐明P2P网络借贷的发展前景。     

货币危机的政治经济学解释:文献评述

作者从文献的角度对货币危机的政治经济学解释做了一次比较全面的梳理,从中可以看出国际金融政治经济学的研究特点和思维方式。在理论构建上,政治经济学的学者们完全沿用了经济学模型中的不完全信息和动态博弈论,引入了预期的形成以及市场交易者和政府之间的战略互动,从而成功地把各种政治和经济变量纳入到一个模型之内。他们的贡献是,把政治变量引入到市场交易者和政府的预期形成中,强调了政治变量以及作为一种信息的政治变量在市场交易者和政府预期中的作用或者地位,并强调了政治变量在市场交易者和政府之间战略互动或动态博弈过程中的作用,从而更好地解释了货币危机的原因,提高了预测货币危机的准确性。在实证研究上,政治经济学通过预期效用函数、战略概率模型等方式,较为成功地实现了对政治因素这个分类变量的模型化,较好地实现了对政治因素的量化分析。     

Trade Diversification and Crisis Transmission: A Case Study of Thailand

The international trade literature suggests trade concentration is an important factor in the amplification of the global financial crisis. However, the relationship between trade concentration and transmission of the subprime crisis is empirically weak. Thailand is one of the countries with declining reliance on the advanced economies, yet it was greatly affected by the recent crisis. This might result because the formation of global supply chains creates both direct and indirect trade linkages. In this paper, the authors include the effects of both linkages to examine their connection to the transmission of external shocks, as experienced by the Thai economy. If total trade linkages are calculated, Thailand is still found to be highly exposed to advanced markets. Simulation using a computational general equilibrium model also indicates that the country was seriously affected by the financial crisis through indirect channels.     

The Global Financial Crisis Revisited: Competition and Regulation

Abstract

Using data of the systematic banking crises from 1981 to 2008, we examine how competition and regulation are related to the crises. We find that countries with higher concentration and/or higher market power of the banking industry are less prone to crises. Further, they are more likely to have weathered the 2008 global financial crisis. However, regulatory and institutional factors play little role and the estimation results are shown to be sensitive to measures of the degree of competition or severity of the crisis, as well as the coverage of the crises.     

权力结构变迁下的IMF改革——基于制度改革的分析路径

IMF作为一种国际制度,其改革是权力结构变迁的合理性诉求,也是制度自身不断调整与效率提升的内在需求。在世界权力关系并未发生根本性转移的大背景下,IMF的改革在当下将仅表现为制度的不断调适而非完全被取代。     

美国储贷危机与次贷危机的比较分析

20世纪80年代至今的短短20多年,关国金融业先后爆发了以房地产市场泡沫破裂为导火索的储贷危机、次级抵押贷款危机,均不同程度地给美国乃至全球经济的运行和发展带来了不小的冲击。     

企业财务危机形成机理和防范研究：一个文献综述

目前,学术界对企业财务危机形成机理及防范的研究主要集中在对财务危机定义和标志的界定、财务危机预测方法和模型的确定、财务危机成因的分析及财务危机的处置等几方面。基于此,本文在对国内外专家对上述问题研究的相关文献进行梳理的基础上,对企业财务危机形成机理和防范研究的发展趋势进行展望。     

从全球金融危机看中国个人与社会关系伦理之维

全球金融危机对我国传统粗放型经济发展模式提出了严峻挑战,而这一挑战的应对,最终要落实到当下中国个人与社会关系的重新思考与科学定位,因为,任何经济发展模式本质都是由一定的人与社会关系所支撑的。文章以伦理学为研究视角,回顾了支撑现当代中、西方经济发展模式的个人与社会关系伦理架构,进而铺陈了当代中国在这一问题研究中的基本路向,这对消解当下金融危机带来的负面影响具有一定积极意义。     

中国抵御世界金融危机的条件和方法

如何看待目前全球性的金融危机,本文基于虚拟经济的理论给出了解释。文章在对中国和美国进行比较的基础上,指出中国具备抵御世界金融危机的条件,并提出了抵御世界金融危机的一些方法。     

全球金融危机背景下我国服务业的发展研究

尽管全球金融危机给我国服务业发展带来不利的影响,但是,我们还是要大力发展服务业,这既有助于达到保增长、促就业的目标,又有助于优化产业结构、转变经济发展方式。服务业的发展策略是优先发展中小服务业企业、生产性服务业、关系到民生的服务业,加大服务业的开放力度,实施人才兴业战略。