行政主导型城镇化与地方融资平台债务：以撤县设区为观察视角

撤县设区是地方政府行政主导型城镇化的重要方式,在促进城镇化的同时可能也会带来未预料的风险。本文通过撤县设区的准自然实验,基于2006—2018年的地级市融资平台有息债务数据,分析了撤县设区这一行政主导型城镇化对地级市融资平台债务的影响。研究发现：撤县设区改革使得地级市债务融资能力提升,融资需求增加,对地级市融资平台债务规模有显著正向刺激作用;具体的作用机制包括土地金融效应和经济增长目标调整效应。异质性分析发现,撤县设区改革对非标债务的影响大于标准的城投债。本文的研究重新审视了行政主导型城镇化模式的效应,也为我国地级市融资平台债务增长提供了一个新的解释。     

就地城镇化的家庭收入效应——基于中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)的实证研究北大核心

新型城镇化对于提升居民收入、实现共同富裕具有重要意义.本文利用2013年、2015年和2017年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据构建双重差分模型,实证分析了以撤县设区为主要方式的就地城镇化政策对当地居民家庭可支配收入的影响.研究发现,县改区后当地居民的家庭可支配收入平均每年增长约9.35％,特别是通过增加他雇的工作机会和自雇形式的工商业创业增加了工资收入和工商业收入.此外,县改区的收入效应表现出空间和群体的异质性,在所属地级市中心城区较为发达的县、农村居民和初中以下教育水平的家庭中更加显著.进一步分析发现,撤县设区有利于缩小县域内部的收入差距.本文从微观视角深化了对撤县设区这一就地城镇化政策的认识,为审慎把握撤县(市)设区和优化城市市辖区规模提供了理论依据和参考.     

政府投资基金对初创期企业创新绩效的影响研究——基于政府配置资源市场化改革视角

本文从政府配置资源市场化改革视角探索政府投资基金在投融资改革中对企业创新绩效的潜在影响。研究发现,政府投资基金能够显著促进初创期企业的创新绩效提升。进一步研究发现,融资约束在政府投资基金与初创期企业创新绩效之间具有机制作用。通过内生性检验和稳定性检验后,结论依然成立。本文丰富了政府投资基金的研究视角和作用机制,揭示了政府投资基金对初创期企业的创新和高质量发展的促进作用。基于研究结论,为我国政府投资基金结构优化和促进企业创新绩效提出政策建议。     

城镇化加速发展背景下的撤县设区现状——基于1997～2015年的分析

20世纪90年代以来,城镇化发展进入高速时期且带有明显的政府主导特征,在城镇扩张和政府绩效压力推动下的行政区划调整行为不断涌现。撤县设区成为1997年后行政区划调整的主流方式并且基于不同的动因呈现出不同的阶段特征,其所形成的市辖区是一个"地域型政区"和"城市型政区"的融合型政区,未来应因地制宜、合理谨慎地选择与城市化进程相适应的行政区划调整方式。     

“乡财县管”改革、基层政府治理与经济发展

县乡两级政府处于我国政府层级的最末端，是大量公共事务的最终承担者，科学合理的县乡财政管理体制，是提升基层治理能力的重要制度保障。2004年以来，我国一些省份相继推行了乡财县管改革，由县级政府直接管理并监督乡镇财政，乡镇财政管理权被大幅度上收到县。本文利用2000-2019年的县域面板数据和双重差分模型，评估了乡财县管改革对经济发展的影响。结果显示，乡财县管促进了县域经济发展。机制分析显示，乡财县管减少了行政管理支出比重，抑制了财政供养人员规模膨胀，降低了税费负担。这些结果表明，加强上级政府对基层政府的财政管理与监督，有助于改善治理水平、促进经济发展。本文也发现，在地形较为复杂的人口大县及经济较发达地区的县，由于改革一定程度上提高了县级政府获取信息的难度，不利于发挥乡镇政府的积极性，乡财县管对经济发展的提升效果相对较弱，这说明，乡财县管不宜“一刀切”地实行。     

政府行政成本提升政府绩效的门槛效应研究——基于2010—2015年省级政府面板数据的实证分析

选取2010-2015年我国31个省、市、自治区为样本,利用门槛效应面板模型研究政府行政成本对政府绩效的非线性影响.实证结果显示:政府行政成本过低会制约政府绩效的提升,当处于58.69~64.78的合理区间时,行政成本与政府绩效间呈正相关关系,随着政府行政成本的增加,政府绩效会上升.而当超过第二门槛值64.78时,政府行政成本与政府绩效间存在显著的负相关关系,且随着行政成本扩大至第三门槛值70.21时,行政成本对政府绩效提升的负向作用达到最大.     

农信社股份制改革对县域经济增长的影响研究

2010年以来,我国农信社改革进入了全面股份制改革阶段,作为我国县域金融体系的主要组成部分,这一改革对县域经济增长的影响是一个有待探讨的重大理论和现实问题。文章利用历年收集的全国金融机构的金融许可证信息来识别全国范围内农信社改制进程,采用1549个县(市、旗)在2011-2018年期间的数据,基于双重差分模型系统评估了农信社股份制改革对县域经济增长的影响。研究结果表明,农信社股份制改革对县域经济增长具有显著的促进作用。其机制为农信社股份制改革能够抑制资金供给不足的县域的资金外流,促进县域资本积累和提升县域投资效率。地区异质性分析发现,在中部和西部地区农信社股份制改革促进了县域经济增长,而在东部地区则表现为“脱农离小”和加速县域资金外流。文章的研究拓展了对农信社改革绩效的研究,为我国正在进行的农信社改制工作和今后的政策调整提供了一定的决策依据,同时对新阶段县域经济的平衡充分发展具有重要政策含义。     

对经济欠发达地区实施稳健货币政策的建议

1.地方政府及有关部门要更新观念,创造性地培育地方经济发展的增长点.一方面地方政府应根据因地制宜,因势利导的原则,进一步明确县域经济发展的思路,千方百计引进附加值大、科技含量高的高新技术产品项目.加快产业结构的调整、优化和升级,壮大县域经济的实力;其次要尽量减少不必要的行政干预,在尊重银行信贷自主权的前提下,主动为企业和银行牵线搭桥,在公平、公正、诚实信用的基础上获得银行部门的资金支持,从而为地方经济的全面发展营造一个比较宽松的优良环境.另一方面,金融部门要进一步加大对辖区经济发展的支持力度,发挥金融在经济结构调整中的调节功能,调整信贷结构,优化信贷投向,大力扶持具有发展潜力的中小企业的发展,培育优势产业和优势企业,促进产业结构的提升.     

出口能力、汇率变动及对纺织上市企业经营绩效影响的研究

中国纺织业是中国国民经济中重要的出口创汇产业,出口额占全国出口总额15%以上。由近十年的纺织品行业出口情况,纺织品行业几近处于净出口的状态,因而研究纺织品出口更具有意义。纺织品出口对企业影响因素中,汇率的变动不单只是对一个出口企业产生单纯的影响,其影响是多层次、多方面的。基于这一新的视角,本研究对纺织品出口上市企业具有代表性十六家企业2007至2014年全新数据,采用相关工具进行处理,运用文献法、案例法以及沃尔评分法和因素分析法等较新理论进行分析,最终验证汇率变动对经营绩效有正向影响,汇率变动对出口能力有正向影响,出口能力对经营绩效有负向影响;并提出从营业收入与营业成本等方面来解析汇率变动影响经营绩效与出口能力的原因与要素,并提出了出口销售陷阱。最后提建议纺织出口上市企业可采取,提高销售利润率,适当减少负债,提高货品处理速率,从外销适当转内销,适当持有现金人民币,以及求取政府相关政策及税务支持等方法来应对人民币的持续升值。     

南宁辖区县域经济的发展与金融支持探讨

县域经济指的是以县为行政单位进行的经济活动及与此有关的经济事件，县域经济是我们国家经济发展乃至社会发展的基础。特别是在我国全面建设小康社会的历史进程中，县域经济的发展如何、农村经济的发展如何、农民收入增长情况如何，直接影响我国在这一历史进程中的步伐，也影响到我国在全世界的地位。南宁辖区(含现在的南宁市和崇左市)共有14个县，     

Bayesian Premium Rating with Latent Structure

We propose a fully Bayesian approach to non-life risk premium rating, based on hierarchical models with latent variables for both claim frequency and claim size. Inference is based on the joint posterior distribution and is performed by Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Rather than plug-in point estimates of all unknown parameters, we take into account all sources of uncertainty simultaneously when the model is used to predict claims and estimate risk premiums. Several models are fitted to both a simulated dataset and a small portfolio regarding theft from cars. We show that interaction among latent variables can improve predictions significantly. We also investigate when interaction is not necessary. We compare our results with those obtained under a standard generalized linear model and show through numerical simulation that geographically located and spatially interacting latent variables can successfully compensate for missing covariates. However, when applied to the real portfolio data, the proposed models are not better than standard models due to the lack of spatial structure in the data.     

The development of the group accounts disclosure system in Japan

The Japanese disclosure system of consolidated statements was introduced in 1977 and extensively revised in 1997. The role of the bureaucracy has been significant in these developments and seems to be part of Japan's closed culture. However, other explanations could also be applied. In particular, although Japanese firms opposed such disclosures on the basis of preparation costs, the Japanese government had to modernize the disclosure system, including consolidation, in order to develop the securities market regardless of an individual company's interests.     

Moments of Compound Mixed Poisson Distributions

Recursive formulae are derived for the evaluation of the moments and the descending factorial moments about a point n of mixed Poisson and compound mixed Poisson distributions, in the case where the derivative of the logarithm of the mixing density can be written as a ratio of polynomials. As byproduct, we also obtain recursive formulae for the evaluation of the moments about the origin, central moments, descending and ascending factorial moments of these distributions. Examples are also presented for a number of mixing densities.     

The designing of corporate accounting law in Japan after the Second World War

After the Second World War, during the neutralization of the controlled economy of wartime Japan, a design for a Corporate Accounting Law was elaborated by the Investigation Committee on the Business Accounting System. The Investigation Committee tried to establish not only new business accounting standards but also a central and independent administrative organ of corporate accounting regulation on the basis of the Corporate Accounting Law. The Corporate Accounting Law was expected to lay the legal foundation of the new corporate accounting regulation regime in Japan. Nevertheless, even though the original design of the fundamental accounting law was never realized, it should be considered the starting point for our understanding of external accounting history in post-war Japan.     

Disclosure of government financial information and the cost of local government’s debt financing——Empirical evidence from provincial investment bonds for urban construction

China’s slowing economic growth and rapid urbanization have made local government debt financing a significant issue.This study uses a sample of China’s provinc...     

The deliberation around accounting techniques: accounting for depreciation and foreign exchange in an Indian jute company, 1870-1900

This paper examines the way two accounting techniques, namely depreciation and foreign exchange, were deliberated on, between 1870 and 1900, in an Indian jute company whose shareholders resided in the UK. The arena for these deliberations was the conflictual relationship between controlling and non-controlling shareholders as to how best to account for depreciation and foreign exchange especially when the particular accountings affected distributional issues such as the dividend decision. The purpose of this paper is to analyse and explain the processes by which a company's accounting practices emerge and develop as a contest between different interests. Accounting framed the parameters of the deliberations and provided the language of power and dissent. The paper uses a rich archive that includes narrative and accounting material.     

Guidelines for Manuscripts Submitted to The China Journal of Accounting Research

【正】The China Journal of Accounting Research"CJAR"(ISSN 1755-3091)publishes quarterly.It contains peer-reviewed articles and commentaries on accounting,auditing ...     

Short-sale refinancing and price adjustment speed to bad news: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China

Short selling may accelerate stock price adjustment to negative news. However, the literature provides mixed evidence for this prediction. Using short-sale refinancing and a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) model, this paper explores the effect of short selling on stock price adjustment. Our results show that (1) short-sale refinancing improves the speed of stock price adjustment to negative news. This result holds after we control for endogeneity. (2) The positive relationship between short-sale refinancing and stock price adjustment speed is significant in subsamples of stocks with higher earnings management or lower accuracy of analyst forecasts, indicating that firms with more opaque information are more likely to be targeted by short sellers. In subsamples of stocks with a higher ownership concentration or lower ownership by institutional investors, short selling is more likely to increase the speed of stock price adjustment, indicating that ownership structure may influence negative news mining. (3) As short-sale refinancing exacerbates the absorption of bad news by stock prices, it increases crash risk. This study enriches the research on the economic consequences of short selling and provides empirical evidence supporting regulations on short selling in China.     

Pricing Dynamic Insurance Risks Using the Principle of Equivalent Utility

We introduce an expected utility approach to price insurance risks in a dynamic financial market setting. The valuation method is based on comparing the maximal expected utility functions with and without incorporating the insurance product, as in the classical principle of equivalent utility. The pricing mechanism relies heavily on risk preferences and yields two reservation prices - one each for the underwriter and buyer of the contract. The framework is rather general and applies to a number of applications that we extensively analyze.