How Politicians Make Decisions: A Political Choice Experiment

The present paper reports on a political choice experiment with elected real-world politicians. A questionnaire on political and public issues is used to examine whether prospect theory predicts the responses of experts from the field better than rational choice theory. The results indicate that framing effects do not disappear with expertise.      

钱随官走:地方官员与地区间的资金流动

本文检验了地方官员对地区间资金流动的作用。利用中国人民银行大额支付系统的数据,在匹配省委书记个体特征的基础上,本文考察了官员政治关联地区即出生地、第一工作地和来源地的资金是否会跟随官员流动,并进一步检验了官员异质性的影响。结果显示,相比非任职年份,在官员任职期间,其出生地和来源地的资金会更多地流入任职地区,存在"钱随官走"的现象,但第一工作地的资金未显著增加。而政治关联强度越大的地区,"钱随官走"的效应也越大。进一步的研究表明,基于情感和理性的平衡,这一效应还会因官员的任期、年龄及来源而有所不同。总体而言,本文的结果表明地方官员与资金流动的关系可能是源于官员情感与理性的平衡。本文的结论为完善我国地方官员治理及深化地区协调发展提供了新的视角。     

大学生职业生涯中的思想政治素质

从大学生职业生涯角度,探讨职业生涯和思想政治素质的良性互动关系。良好的思想政治素质能提升职业生涯的适应能力,能创造性地应对职业生涯中的各种环境。职业生涯也是践行与检验思想政治素质的主阵地。     

The Control of Politicians in Divided Societies: The Politics of Fear

Autocrats in many developing countries have extracted enormous personal rents from power. In addition, they have imposed inefficient policies including pervasive patronage spending. I present a model in which the presence of ethnic identities and the absence of institutionalized succession processes allow the ruler to elicit support from a sizeable share of the population despite large reductions in welfare. The fear of falling under an equally inefficient and venal ruler that favours another group is enough to discipline supporters. The model predicts extensive use of patronage, ethnic bias in taxation, and spending patterns and unveils a new mechanism through which economic frictions translate into increased rent extraction by the leader. These predictions are consistent with the experiences of bad governance, ethnic bias, wasteful policies, and kleptocracy in post-colonial Africa.     

高校思想政治理论课教师要凝练“气”质

高校思想政治理论课是对大学生进行思想政治教育的主阵地。高校思想政治理论课教师队伍的整体素质如何,不仅直接影响大学生的成长成才,而且直接影响社会主义建设事业的长远发展。建设一支高素质的高校思想政治理论课教师队伍,不仅需要相应的物质与制度保障,更需要广大的思想政治理论课教师共同努力,不断加强自身建设。加强自身建设,就是要凝练＂气＂质,积极转变教育观念,在创新教学方法、加大理论宣传和抓好课堂管理等方面下工夫。     

Electoral Rules, Political Systems, and Institutional Quality

This paper explores the links between political rules and institutional quality. The paper concentrates on two political measures: the presence of checks and balances in the political system and an index of political particularism that measures the incentives for politicians to build personal support bases. The paper finds a positive correlation between checks and balances and institutional quality. It also finds that intermediate levels of particularism are associated with higher institutional quality.     

The Political Entrepreneur and the Coordination of the Political Process: A Market Process Perspective of the Political Market

The aim of this article is to apply the Austrian analysis of the entrepreneur to the political process. By distinguishing the political process from the economic process, we will endeavour to show to what extent an analysis in terms of the political market process is both possible and relevant. The existence of an information conveyance which can be assimilated to a price system within the political process, with its resulting profits, are motivating elements for the political entrepreneur. The political entrepreneur is doubly specialised and possesses all the Kirznerian functions of the Austrian entrepreneur as a coordinating agent for the political process.     

Are You Being Served? Political Accountability and Quality of Government

How well any government functions hinges on how good citizensare at making their politicians accountable for their actions.Political control of public officials depends on two factors.First, free and regular elections allow citizens to disciplinepoliticians—the credible threat of losing office in thenext period compels policy makers to respond to the voters'interests. Second, and equally important, the degree of citizeninformation curbs the opportunities politicians may have toengage in political corruption and management. The presenceof a well-informed electorate in a democratic setting explainsbetween one-half and two-thirds of the variance in the levelsof governmental performance and corruption.     

官商结盟的体制效应——以近代中国民营企业发展为例的分析

开放经济条件下,在一个相对集权的体制中,为规避潜在的风险,民营企业通常会采取消极适应或积极适应两种发展形式。以牺牲企业对外部(技术、市场)变化适应性为代价换取产权安全的消极适应型发展的直接后果是使得政府提升国家产业竞争力的努力受挫。与消极适应型发展模式不同,一些民营企业会选择积极适应型的发展模式,即通过寻求官方庇护的政治方式来确保创新收益安全,企业发展与滋生腐败之间极易发生联系。‘腐败’成为企业发展‘润滑剂’现象的出现,侵蚀了国家政治体制,加剧了政府和社会大众的不满,客观上加大了企业发展面临的潜在风险。体制怪圈的形成,既不利于国家竞争力的提升,又极可能引发政府统治的合法性危机。本文分析表明,只有将民营企业从坏体制始作俑者的角色中解放出来,才能破解体制怪圈。这需要从根本上改变民营企业既是被需要的,同时又是被歧视的尴尬处境。中国近代史上有关民营企业发展的案例为本文假说提供了丰富的实质性内容。     

“五大发展理念”的时代品质和实践要求——马克思主义政治经济学视角的研究

发展理念是经济发展思想的历史路标,具有前瞻性、整体性、统领性等特点。我国社会主义制度建立以来,经过长期建设和发展,以物的依赖性为特征的第二个历史发展阶段已呈现向以自由个性为特征的第三个阶段过渡的某些先兆性特征。在这一时代背景下,党的十八届五中全会提出创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享五大发展理念,在实现两个一百年的发展道路上再一次树立起历史路标,旨在开启由物的依赖性向自由个性转变的历史征程。五大发展理念是从我国发展实践中提炼出来的规律性认识,其本身就是理论创新的重要成果,也将进一步引领对当代中国重大经济现实问题的理论研究。     

Politicians, deficits, and monetary policy in the U.S. revisited

This paper reconsiders the evidence regarding the existence of executive and congressional influences on monetary policy in the U.S. Results regarding the source of the federal deficit (cyclical or structural) provide evidence that structural deficits occurring under Democratic presidential administrations have a significant impact on money growth rates, but those occurring under their Republican counterparts may not. Although the evidence regarding cyclical deficits is statistically weaker, their more limited influence on monetary growth rates appears to be similar regardless of whether they occur under Democratic or Republican presidents. This contrasts with previous research which suggests that cyclical deficits influence monetary growth rates under Democratic administrations while structural deficits generated a similar monetary response regardless of which party held the presidency.     

Bad Eggs,Learning-by-doing,and the Choice of Technology

We model long-run economic development through technology adoption under scientific uncertainty about environmental effects. There are four possible long-run equilibria in a socially planned economy: ‘High-growth’, adopt rapidly, but abandon damaging technologies once revealed (DDT, CFCs); ‘Cautious’, brake the introduction of new technologies to avoid mistakes (genetically modified organisms); ‘No-growth’, halt technological progress to preserve secondary knowledge; and ‘Collapse’, adopt rapidly without ever abandoning damaging technologies. In the base parameterization a short-sighted social planner chooses the cautious strategy. A far-sighted planner chooses the high-growth strategy, unless damages are irreversible in which case the cautious strategy again dominates. Regulatory options in the market economy are investigated. Pollution taxes do not affect the firm’s level of precaution if they can only be applied after the adopting firm has reaped the benefits; however, they do encourage the abandonment of damaging technologies. Liability rules do affect precaution, but may lead to excessive caution, or even a no-growth trap.     

政治关联、审计需求与会计信息质量——基于我国上市公司的经验证据

以2005—2008年在我国沪深两市的民营上市公司为样本,实证分析了上市公司的政治关系、会计信息质量与审计需求之间的相互关系。研究结果显示,有政治关系的上市公司更倾向于选择低水平的审计师,而选择低质量外部审计服务的上市公司的会计信息质量也更低。     

Bad volatility is not always bad: evidence from the commodity markets

ABSTRACT

Using exchange-traded fund (ETF) options data, we examine the predictive power of variance risk premium on returns of four commodities: crude oil, natural gas, gold and silver. We also analyze the predictive power of upside and downside variance risk premiums using a decomposition model conditional on the direction of the underlying market movement. We find that both the undecomposed and decomposed variance risk premiums are able to predict commodity prices. The decomposed variance risk premiums, however, outperform the undecomposed premium. The importance of upside and downside variance risk premiums differs across markets, related to hedging demand. In energy markets, both upside and downside premiums have strong predictive power, while in precious metal markets, only the upside premium is predictive.     

企业国际化经营的政治风险及其对策分析

随着经济的发展,越来越多的企业开始涉足到国际市场中来,国际化成了企业发展的必然趋势。开展国际化经营不仅给企业的发展带来了更多的机遇,而且也使企业冒了非常大的政治风险。因此,需要分析企业国际化的政治风险,从进入投资前和进入投资后两个阶段提出我国企业国际化经营中政治风险的防范和控制对策。