Intrafirm trade and the developing countries: an assessment of the data

The state of general empirical knowledge of the extent of and trends in intrafirm international trade are surveyed with attention concentrated on United States and Canadian data sources. Focus is on conceptual and definitional distinctions, U.S. trade with U.S. majority-owned foreign affiliates, U.S. related-party imports, international subcontracting and value added tariffs, aggregative data from individual developing countries, and customs documents as micro-level data soruces. In this effort to outline the reasons for the growing concern with the phenomenon of intrafirm trade and to summarize the most readily available data on its nature and growth, the following were among the important points made: 1) it is essential to arrive at clear and uniform definitions as to what is meant by "intrafirm trade"; 2) the share of U.S. non-petroleum imports from developing countries which originates in majority-owned foreign affiliates of U.S. firms is declining; 3) very high proportions of some U.S. imports from developing countries originate with "related parties," and there are frequently large differences between import unit values in related-party trade and those in non-related-party trade; 4) international subcontracting, as indicated by the usage of value added tariff provisions, continues to be a rapidly growing element in manufactured goods trade between the U.S. and developing countries; and 5) further data should be collected and empirical research conducted.     

Import competition,fast-track authority and U.S. policy toward China

Has the rise of China influenced U.S. legislation? China’s economic rise in the past 30 years has largely been driven by its exports of labor intensive products. Taking advantage of this supply shock in the United States and cross-district variation in the composition of industries, we investigate the potential role of Chinese imports in U.S. legislators’ decision on granting Fast-Track Authority to the president. Consistent with Conconi et al. (2012), our empirical analyses indicate that in districts with more industries that are exposed to Chinese import competition, legislators are less likely to give up the power to amend international trade agreements. Interestingly, Chinese imports may distort the view of constituents toward China which render legislators in districts subject to large Chinese import competition to take an affirmative position on foreign policy that may hurt China.     

TRADE CREATION AND DIVERSION EFFECTS OF THE U.S.-CANADIAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT

This study empirically estimates and evaluates the economic benefits of the U.S. and Canadian Free Trade Agreement (FTA). Most past studies rely on aggregate data. The analysis here emphasizes the trade effects of removing tariff and nontariff barriers on each commodity group classified by the Standard International Trade Classification. Estimating the amount of trade expansion under FTA for both countries involves using the import demand elasticities from a dynamic demand model. Results show that U.S. imports from Canada are more sensitive to domestic, import, and world prices than are Canadian imports from the United States. U.S. imports from Canada would increase roughly £3.257 billion compared to the £2.432 billion increase for Canadian imports from the United States .     

COMPETITIVE NEED LIMITS AND THE U.S. GENERALIZED SYSTEM OF PREFERENCE

The United States uses competitive need limits to deny Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) treatment of imports from developing countries. The analysis here estimates in two ways the effect of competitive need limits on GSP imports. First, it uses ex post trade data to determine the effect on import values and shares. Second, it combines an ex ante model with trade and elasticity data to estimate the effect of competitive need limits. Results indicate that competitive need limits reduce affected imports by 10 to 17%. Benefits from this import reduction accrue almost exclusively to U.S. import competing firms.     

BILATERAL TRADE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA: IMPLICATIONS OF THE FREE TRADE AGREEMENT

This study's primary objective is to evaluate empirically the economic effects of the U.S.-Canada Free Trade Agreement (FTA). The paper emphasizes bilateral trade flows of agricultural and industrial products between the United States and Canada, given that the FTA removes tariff and non-tariff barriers. It evaluates the FTA's impact on the two countries' trade with third countries. The paper specifies a traditional log-linear trade model consisting of import demand and export supply equations for both agricultural and industrial products. It uses quarterly time-series U.S. and Canadian trade data for 1972–1985.
The study uses the two-stage least-squares estimator to estimate the models. The models had R coefficients ranging from 0.78 to 0.99, indicating that the models' explanatory variables explain most causes of variations in the dependent variable. This study reveals that U.S. imports of agricultural and industrial products from Canada were more sensitive than were Canadian imports not only to import and domestic prices but also to world prices. This is because Canadian consumers have less domestic substitutes than do their U.S. counterparts. Also, Canada has a smaller internal market than does the United States. The study estimates that U.S. imports from Canada will increase $2.8 billion while Canadian imports from the United States will increase $1.2 billion. The impact on the two countries' trade with third-party countries will be insignificant.     

Understanding the recent Sino-U.S. trade conflict

ABSTRACT

To understand Sino-U.S. trade relations, this article interprets the trade imbalance between China and the United States from the Trump administration’s perspective. The Trump administration claims that the Chinese government’s subsidies and high import tariffs cause the Sino-U.S. trade deficit, resulting in job losses in the U.S. The Trump administration therefore argues that imposing high tariffs on Chinese exports can resolve the deficit. The article finds that U.S. statistical accounting overestimates the deficit. Reducing China’s imports cannot increase U.S. employment, and China provides the United States with low-price and high-quality products. Chinese investors tend to invest the surplus by purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds. In addition, the United States limits Chinese investments due to ‘national security’ concerns. China’s upgrading to the high end of the global value chain is a consequence of economic development. Therefore, the two countries should rebalance Sino-U.S. trade by seeking economic and trade cooperation via trade negotiations.     

Inventories and antidumping: the case of orange juice trade

The United States and Brazil are key players in the international market for orange juice, mainly frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ). The U.S. orange juice industry benefits from one of the highest levels of import protection in U.S. agriculture. Additional trade protection was recently added with a U.S. industry victory in an antidumping trade suit against Brazil. We study the impact of FCOJ imports from Brazil on U.S. prices using time series econometric models and find only a weak FCOJ domestic price response to imports from Brazil, because extremely large U.S. inventories mute the price impact of any fluctuation in imports. Our findings imply that the antidumping tariffs were unjustified based on a material injury argument.     

Exchange-rate variability and U.S.-French trade flows: evidence from industry data

Recent studies have greatly expanded the literature on the effects of exchange-rate volatility on industry-level bilateral trade flows. In this study, we examine the case of the United States and France, applying cointegration analysis to a set of 146 U.S. export and 115 U.S. import industries. We find that the majority of industries show little or no relationship between risk and trade volumes, but that small industries—particularly for exports—show more sensitivity than do large ones. A disproportionate share of industries respond positively to increased volatility, particularly among U.S. importers, suggesting the presence of “risk loving” behavior.     

Offshoring and skill overlap: An empirical investigation

Conventional international trade theory predicts that bilateral offshoring flows will be highest when two countries have very different relative factor endowments. In contrast, the new trade theory contends that offshoring is more likely to exist when countries’ relative factor endowments are similar. This paper empirically tests the relationship between offshoring and relative factor endowments, measured by the skill overlap index between two countries and finds evidence that there is an inverted U‐shape relationship. Our empirical results predict that the rise in educational attainment in China will motivate U.S. multinationals to send their tasks to China in the short run; over the long run, however, U.S. multinationals will have fewer incentives to send their tasks to China. This finding sheds new light on the current trade tensions between the United States and China and has implications for trade policy.     

Why will Trump lose the trade war?

ABSTRACT

The escalating U.S.–China trade conflicts have increasingly shadowed the outlook of the world economy. The Trump administration aims to achieve its strategic goals including reducing current account deficits, promoting the U.S. manufacturing sector, and curbing Chinese high-tech industries by waging the trade war against China. This paper argues that the current account deficits and the declining manufacturing sector in the U.S. are mainly driven by its internal structural factors, such as low saving rates, high labor costs, and rising service sector, rather than by the import competition from China. Moreover, the trade war further deteriorates the U.S. current account deficits and erode its comparative advantage, and it forces China to invest more in technological innovation and human capital, and thus promote its progress in high-tech industries. Thus, the U.S. will not be able to achieve its strategical goals and eventually lose the trade war.     

ICT AND EUROPE's PRODUCTIVITY PERFORMANCE: INDUSTRY-LEVEL GROWTH ACCOUNT COMPARISONS WITH THE UNITED STATES

In this paper we present a new industry-level database to analyze sources of growth in four major European countries: France, Germany, Netherlands and the United Kingdom (EU-4), in comparison with the United States for the period 1979–2000. Aggregate labor productivity growth is decomposed into industry-level contributions of labor quality, ICT and non-ICT capital deepening and TFP. A small set of service industries is mainly responsible for the acceleration in ICT capital deepening in both regions, but their contribution to growth is lower in the EU-4 than in the U.S. TFP in these ICT-intensive services accelerated in the U.S. in the 1990s, but not in Europe. In addition, widespread deceleration in non-ICT capital deepening in the EU-4 has led to a European labor productivity slowdown.     

Partisanship and antidumping

This paper empirically examines the influence of political partisanship on antidumping protection, which has become the most frequently used contingent trade remedy in the last 20 years. First, we show that the number of antidumping initiations from the labor intensive industries increases when there is a left-wing government in power. In addition, the evidence on the governments' decision to impose antidumping duty demonstrates that the increase in the leftist orientation of the governments is associated with an increase in the likelihood of an affirmative antidumping outcome from the petitions of labor intensive industries. Although antidumping is an administrative protection which includes a set of necessary procedures and rules to follow, our findings clearly point out the political bias in AD actions in the form of partisan preferences.     

美国购油策略分析及对中国的启示

美国页岩油革命改变了美国原油贸易格局，使得美国进口原油品质趋于重质化，且地域来源趋于集中化。本文通过挖掘页岩油革命后美国原油进口策略转变的内在原因，提出美国国内页岩油需求与对加拿大原油进口之间存在互补效应，而与对欧佩克原油进口之间存在替代效应，并通过协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验，分析了美国页岩油需求和对各国原油进口的互动关系。本文的研究结果对中国的页岩油战略和中美原油贸易关系均有重要的政策启示。     

The Changing External Exposure of Australian Industry

This article examines changes in trade‐related external exposure for Australian industry from 1990–91 to 2000–01, using primary and composite measures that capture the effects of exports, imports and imported inputs. The primary measures show that export market share for all exporting industries increased, but import market share increased at an equal or greater rate both overall and in most industries. Input value import shares also increased across virtually all industries. Two composite measures are calculated, the Index of Effective Exposure (IEE) and an extended IEE incorporating import market shares. The extended IEE shows that the net external exposure of Australian industry has been increasing over the decade, particularly in the Manufacturing and Mining Divisions. The net exposure of Australian manufacturing industries is lower than expected compared to the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and Japan, but the rankings of manufacturing industries in each country are similar and becoming more so.     

THE ROLE OF EXCHANGE RATE IN SINO-U.S. BILATERAL TRADE

We use the error component two-stage least squares estimation method to examine the effects of the Sino-U.S. exchange rate and the weighted exchange rate between the United States and other Asian countries on the Sino-U.S. trade patterns. Our study suggests that both the exchange rates have contributed to China's increased trade surplus with the United States. China has imported intermediate goods from the Asian countries, produced final goods using its cheap labor, and exported those goods to the United States. This is especially true for bilateral trade of high-tech manufacturing goods. Our study also reveals that the U.S. bilateral trade balance could improve if China appreciates its currency (Yuan) against the U.S. dollar. ( JEL F14, F10, F19)     

Intermediate good sourcing,wages and inequality: From theory to evidence

This paper examines the consequences of offshoring and outsourcing on domestic wages and wage inequality. I highlight the role of labor market frictions in impacting firms’ outsourcing and offshoring decisions; specifically, how differential costs of matching with workers affect the location of production (onshore or offshore) and how differential costs of assessing worker quality affect the ownership of intermediate production (intra‐firm or inter‐firm). I demonstrate how firm sourcing decisions can depend crucially on the industry skill intensity, which reflects the importance of worker–firm match quality, and as a result, the effect of offshoring on domestic labor depends on occupation and industry characteristics, as well as the ownership regime of trade. Bringing the theory to the data I rely on plausibly exogenous variation in the cost of inter‐ and intra‐firm offshoring to identify the effects of a change in each type of offshoring on domestic wages. I find strong evidence that the effect of offshoring on domestic wages—both on the average and on the wage distribution—is governed by the type of offshoring (inter‐ vs. intra‐firm), the skill intensity of the industry, and the offshorability of the occupation.     

浅析美国在华直接投资与中美贸易的关系

贸易和投资——世界经济全球化的两个主要推动力量,日益向着一体化的方向发展。随着经济全球化的日益深入,中美两国的经贸联系越发密切。美国是当今世界经济的主要引擎之一,其在华的直接投资对中关进出口贸易产生着举足轻重的影响。文章分析了美国在华直接投资与中关贸易的发展趋势及其特点,并在此基础上探讨了美国对华投资与中关贸易互相促进的关系。     

Identifying foreign suppliers in U.S. import data

Relationships between firms and their foreign suppliers are the foundation of international trade, but data limitations and reliability concerns make studying such relationships challenging. We evaluate and enhance supplier information in U.S. import data and present new facts about importer–exporter relationships. Count of foreign exporters from U.S. import data tends to exceed those from source country data, especially from China. The pattern of U.S. imports from origin countries changes substantially by tracing trade back to the supplier's location instead. Related‐party relationships trade more, while larger countries have more relationships.     

THE IMPACT OF TAX REGIMES ON INTERNATIONAL TRADE PATTERNS

This paper discusses the trade implications of value‐added taxes (VATs) that refund domestic taxes paid by exporters of domestic production while imposing taxes on imports of foreign production. VATs are used by over 140 countries of the world, including every member of the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development except the United States. An investigation of the implications of border‐adjustable taxes on the U.S. trade balance suggests that VATs positively affect trade competitiveness but with differing impacts by sector. These results do not necessarily extend to the conclusion that a U.S. VAT would increase U.S. exports; such a prediction requires economic forecasting and appropriate simulations. The present results do imply that the adoption of VATs by other countries appears to have benefited U.S. trade. Panel data over 20 years, 29 industries, and 145 countries is used to conduct the analysis. (JEL F10, H20, K34)     

The effects of currency fluctuations and trade integration on industry trade between Canada and Mexico

Since studies of North American trade flows tend to focus on the United States as the main trading partner, trade between Canada and Mexico has received relatively little attention. Here, we examine bilateral trade flows for 62 Canadian export industries to Mexico and 45 import industries from Mexico to assess the effects of currency fluctuations and trade integration on these individual trade flows. We find that Mexico’s largest export industries respond to depreciation more than Canada’s largest export industries do. Both countries’ trade flows are influenced even more by trade integration. Since there is evidence of strong intra-industry trade between these two countries, we can attribute this effect to the exploitation of economies of scale.