制度偏好差异与电力产业规制放松的困境--"厂网分开"引发的深层思考

本文利用“芝加哥”学派利益集团理论的基本假设，对我国电力产业内部人势力的形成、强化及其行为对市场交易的扭曲进行了详尽的分析，从而为当前电力产业规制困境的发生提出了一个基于制度偏好和企业行为的解释。结果表明，在缺乏有效规制的背景下．对自然垄断产业实施等同于一般产业的“放权让利”武改革，为利益集团的成长提供了制度条件和资金支持。由于管制权力分散在诸多的“条块”之间。“厂网分开”后也没有建立权威性的专业机构．不同利益取向的参与者之间的博弈使电力产业的规制放松陷入困境。     

Deregulation,governance structures,and efficiency: the U.S. electric utility sector

The business strategy literature offers apparently opposite views of the ability of vertical integration to cope with the uncertainty related to changing regulatory environments. In this paper, we analyze how the process of retail deregulation affects the comparative efficiency of governance structures, which range on a continuum from fully vertically integrated structures to market transactions. Based on the analysis of 177 U.S. electric utilities from 1998 to 2001, our results show that the process of retail deregulation has a negative impact on firms' productive efficiency, as measured using Data Envelopment Analysis. Furthermore, firms that are vertically integrated into electricity generation, or that rely on the market for the supply of their electricity, are more efficient than firms that adopt hybrid structures combining vertical integration and contracting. This research has important implications because it shows the coexistence of different types of governance structures that cope efficiently with regulatory uncertainty through different mechanisms. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

One country,two systems: contrasting approaches to telecommunications deregulation in Hong Kong China

Telecommunications deregulation strategies have been self-evidently different in Hong Kong and China due to differences existing in political and economic systems. This paper will provide an overview of contemporary trends in telecommunications deregulation in these two territories. Comparisons will be drawn between the two systems with regard to ownership, foreign direct investment, respective regulatory frameworks and the government’s perseverance in propelling deregulation. The study clearly indicates that the shared goal of deregulation can be reached at different rates by different routes (‘policy paths’) dependent on situational contingencies.     

The impact of liberalization on the scope of efficiency improvement in electricity-generating portfolios for the United States and Switzerland

In this study, Markowitz mean-variance portfolio theory is applied to electricity-generating technologies of the United States and Switzerland. Both an investor (focused on changes in return) and a current user (focused on return in levels) view are adopted to determine efficient frontiers of electricity generation technologies in terms of expected return and risk as of 2003. Since shocks in generation costs per kWh (the inverse of returns) are correlated, Seemingly Unrelated Regression Estimation (SURE) is used to filter out the systematic components of the covariance matrix. Results suggest that risk-averse investors and risk-neutral current users in the United States are considerably closer to their efficiency frontier than their Swiss counterparts. This may be due to earlier and more thorough deregulation of electricity markets in the United States.     

How does institutional change affect heterogeneity among firms?

This paper examines the variation in performance of incumbents and entrants following the deregulation of prices and entry in the airline industry. Our approach is similar to earlier studies of interfirm performance heterogeneity across industries. Drawing on theories of industry evolution, we hypothesize that the performance of entrants will have higher variance than incumbents. Further, given the opportunities offered by price deregulation, we propose that incumbents will have higher variance in performance under deregulation than in the earlier regime. The findings indicate that entrant performance heterogeneity is significantly greater than incumbent performance heterogeneity following deregulation, but that the variation in performance among incumbents does not significantly change when deregulation occurs. The second result is surprising given the range of service and process innovations that incumbents initiated. These results suggest that the distinction between entrants and incumbents is critical to future studies of performance variation within and across industries. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An Empirical Analysis of the Potential for Market Power in California's Electricity Industry

Using historical cost data, we simulate the California electricity market after deregulation as a static Cournot market with a competitive fringe. Our model indicates that, under the pre-deregulation structure of generation ownership, there is potential for significant market power in high demand hours, particularly in the fall and early winter months when hydroelectric output is at its lowest level relative to demand. The results also show that two of the most important factors in determining the extent and severity of market power are the level of available hydroelectric production and the elasticity of demand.     

美国电力管理体制的改革

美国电力工业从上世纪九十年代起开始改革。二十多年来,美国联邦能源监管委员会在建立电力批发市场方面以及在建立区域输电系统方面进行了一系列改革,包括对电力企业实行放松管制、引入竞争机制,开放输电网络、市场定价,无歧视入网、搁浅成本的处理、输电系统的信息透明化等,最终使美国的电力系统效率更高、电价更低,服务质量逐步提高。     

Opportunity Cost Pass‐Through from Fossil Fuel Market Prices to Procurement Costs of the U.S. Power Producers

This paper investigates the transmission of fossil fuel commodity spot market price changes to procurement costs of U.S. power producers. We measure and compare the speed and magnitude with which spot prices predict procurement costs using restricted access fuel price data. Natural gas spot prices are quickly reflected in procurement costs. Coal spot prices offer very little predictive power to coal procurement costs. Although not causal, the empirical results also show differences across regulatory status. These findings may have implications for the electricity market deregulation literature that creates marginal cost curves as a competitive benchmark.     

Restructuring the U.S. Electric Power Sector: A Review of Recent Studies

The restructuring of the U.S. electric power industry has been described as “one of the largest single industrial reorganizations in the history of the world.” As with deregulation and reform of other industries, electricity restructuring was intended to produce cost efficiencies and price benefits to consumers. Whether it has achieved its stated objective is the focus of a number of recent studies that are examined in this review. The studies differ in numerous important ways – most importantly, in their methodologies and their conclusions. The focus of this review is on the strengths and limitations of their specific methodologies and, hence, on the confidence one might place in their conclusions. The article begins by setting out the basic methodological approaches employed in public policy evaluation. It then illustrates these points with examples from methodologies employed in several studies of electricity restructuring, concluding that several methodological deficiencies call into question the study results. In particular, despite much advocacy, there is little reliable and convincing evidence that consumers are better off as a result of the restructuring of the U.S. electric power industry.     

实施峰谷阶梯电价的计费方法及执行措施

介绍了浙江永康为了既保证基本生活用电水平又倡导节约用电和合理用电而执行峰谷阶梯电价的具体方法、阶梯电价计费方式和实施过程,以及居民用户在实施峰谷阶梯电价中采取的降低电费的相应措施;指出执行居民峰谷阶梯电价既有移峰填谷的作用又有促进节约用电的功能,并可引导人们改变用电习惯,是一项利国利民的电价政策。     

Wettbewerbsfähigkeit der Photovoltaik im deutschen Energiemix – Neudefinition des Ansatzes der Netzparität

Photovoltaics are one of the fastest growing energy sources in the world. Despite high costs and a limited energy yield, attractive support schemes particularly the German renewable energy law have paved the way for the strong market growth of this technology within the last decade. Here the question arises as to when photovoltaics will reach a competitive level in Germany without the support of subsidies. The prominent grid parity approach is simple and considered critical in this discussion. It is critical because of the different references regarding the costs of electricity generated by a newly installed PV system and the electricity price of private households, which consists of electricity generation, distribution, sales as well as taxes and duties on the one hand. On the other hand, there are different time references in the calculation of electricity generation costs and electricity prices of private households. Transferring the approach of Levelized Costs of Electricity (LCOE) to all power generation plants within the energy mix means a redefinition of the grid parity of photovoltaics will be carried out. Here the electricity generation costs of photovoltaics as well as the energy mix will be calculated in the same way. The LCOE calculation refers to the whole life cycle of every power generation plant. That is why a balance between the high investment costs of photovoltaics and the increasing operation costs of fossil fuelled power plants is made. It can be shown that the reaching of competitiveness of photovoltaics in Germany depends on structural changes in electricity generation and it is to be realized within the anticipated time frame until the year 2020.     

大部制背景下垄断性产业的管制机构改革——以中国电力管制机构改革为例

在新一轮的政府机构改革中推行大部门体制,这需要探讨与此相关的垄断性产业管制机构改革问题。本文以中国能源产业大部制改革为背景,并以电力产业为例,讨论政府行政部与垄断性产业管制机构的区别与联系;在能源产业大部制过渡时期,现行电力管制机构的定位问题;在能源产业最终实现大部制后,电力管制机构将采取的理论模式及其特征;最后,本文对电力管制机构的动态发展趋势作了预期分析。     

Die Kosten des Klimaschutzes am Beispiel der Strompreise für private Haushalte

Power prices in Germany have been surging since the outset of the new millennium. Among the major reasons for this tendency are newly raised taxes and levies on electricity prices, whose introduction is primarily motivated by climate concerns. Without these taxes and levies, net electricity prices would have remained constant for private households. This article discusses these taxes and levies that have been responsible for the cost increases in private households’ electricity consumption. Most influential have been the feed-in tariffs for renewable energies, above all photovoltaics. According to our calculations, the levy for renewables will further increase in the up-coming years, thereby pushing consumers’ electricity cost once again. Our calculations also show that within the next couple of years, there will be a fierce competition among renewable energy technologies, most notably between photovoltaics and wind power. Politics would be well-advised, therefore, to limit the annual capacity of newly installed solar modules in order to avoid both the explosion of consumers’ electricity bills and strong competition among renewables.     

Eine Bewertung der Regelenergievermarktung im Power-to-Gas-Konzept

The integration of the increasing share of fluctuating renewable energy sources into the energy system requires more options in flexibility. A promising attempt is the power-to-gas concept (PtG) which allows the production of hydrogen and synthetic natural gas (SNG) from electricity and the storage in caverns or existing gas storage facilities. However, an economic operation in Germany is not expected before 2030, when the amount of surplus energy, mainly generated in wind parks, will be sufficient. Currently, a hardly analyzed aspect is the potential commercialization of the flexible electrolysis as controllable load on the electricity balancing market. This offers opportunities to generate additional revenues and to obtain cheap electricity in the form of balancing energy. The present article has been designed to analyze this aspect and to examine the impact of a potential commercialization of balancing energy on the gas production costs within the PtG concept. At first, the current legal framework, the funding instruments of SNG and the differences between the notion ‘Speichergas’ and ‘Biogas’ will be outlined. An overview of the current balancing market will be given and the development of prices on the secondary balancing market will be evaluated as well as expected market trends will be presented. The following calculation of gas production costs, which result from applying an optimal proposal strategy on the secondary balancing market, is model-based and uses historical data. Three scenarios are defined and examined, and the impact of variable electricity prices is analyzed. The electricity balancing market is profitable and offers many opportunities for PtG plants. The results show a decrease of SNG production costs by up to 74 % to 46,9 €/MWh. As for the hydrogen, the production costs amount to approximately 25,8 €/MWh which equals a cost reduction of up to 81 % compared to conventional PtG plants without commercialization of balancing energy.     

基于ARE模型推导中国2010年投入产出表

编制投入产出表涉及大量的数据与计算,滞后问题严重。根据电力与经济呈正相关的原理,将已有的投入产出表及已知相关数据作为经济体的初始状态,以用电量及公布的宏观经济数据作为经济体运行的目标状态,采用ARE（智能体响应均衡）模型,模拟宏观经济的运行。并以用电量为约束的迭代算法让经济体达到目标状态,推出新的投入产出表。在ARE模拟中,各行业的模拟用电量与实际用电量之间的误差越小,得到的投入产出表精度越高。以此方法更新的投入产出表滞后期减少1～2年,可为其他经济模型研究及政策制定提供基础。     

Cost Recovery in Congested Electricity Networks

Large scale investments in European electricity networks are foreseen in the next decade. Pricing the network at marginal cost will not be sufficient to pay for those investments as the network is a natural monopoly. This paper derives numerically the socially optimal transmission prices for cost recovery, taking into account that electricity networks are often congested, while allowing for market power in generation. The model is illustrated with a Stackelberg game for the Belgian electricity market.     

Negative Strompreise und der Vorrang Erneuerbarer Energien

With the appearance of negative prices a discussion about flaws in the design of the German electricity market arose. We show that negative prices are not only due to the integration of electricity from renewable energy sources. Negative prices can actually increase welfare. Yet, a loss of welfare does arise because of the priority feed-in of these sources. They are inclined to deliver energy even when the cost of production exceeds the market price, i.e. the electricity’s value. We suggest to remove the priority feed-in combined with a modification of the feed-in tariffs. Thereby, renewable electricity producers will suffer no drawbacks but social welfare increases.     

2005年电力供需分析及2006年预测

2005年下半年开始我国电力供需矛盾开始出现缓和,作者对2005年全国电力供需情况进行了全面分析总结,并对2006年全国电力供需形势进行了分析预测,对2007年电力供需形势进行了展望。根据分析预测结果,2006年全国电力供需形势将由缺电向基本平衡过渡,自2002年以来这一轮全国性缺电局面将于2007年全面结束。     

Deregulation of commercial TV in the USA: Control by government or market

Following the FCC's decision to partially deregulate radio, attention is now focusing on the possibility of television deregulation. The authors review the radio deregulation decision and apply similar criteria to television. Debate centres around government v marketplace control; the extent to which stations meet FCC standards for information, local and total non-entertainment programming; and, the effect of deregulation on provision of non-entertainment programming. The real question is when should deregulation take place. The authors suggest that the FCC and Congress should pave the way for deregulation by encouraging competition.     

Die Berücksichtigung von Spitzenkappung in der Anreizregulierung

The model of temporary disconnection of renewable energy in case of high energy injection and low demand is thought to be an effective method for reducing investments in electricity networks. However, plant owners need to be reimbursed for foregone sales. According to the currently discussed draft of the Amendment of the German Incentive Regulation Ordinance, these costs can be rolled over to the consumer on a yearly basis, but are part of the cost benchmark with their base year values. This paper shows that this model sets incentives for optimal investments in electricity networks, but violates the participation constraint: Net operators will be exposed to a severe risk of worsening their position in the cost benchmark. In expectation, they will generate losses and investors have no incentive to invest in electricity networks. This problem can be solved by allowing net operators to roll over costs to customers, while considering average reimbursement fees in the cost benchmark.