Enkele opmerkingen over groeimodellen

Summary In this article some aspects of growth models are considered. After an introduction on the subject-matter of growth theory, the standard growth models are discussed at some length from the point of view of equilibrium as well at disequilibrium dynamics. An attemptis made to discover the implicit assumptions that are made with respect to the behaviour pattern of consumers and producers who govern the actual path of a process of economic growth. It appears to be useful to distinguish demand-orientated and supply-orientatated aspects of growth models. The third part of the paper deals briefly with the dynamics of the dynamic models. The reaction pattern of the individuals who cope with a situation of disequilibrium comes to the fore in a more subtle way than in case of equilibrium dynamics. One of the main conclusions of the article is that the growth models under discussion seem to start from a behaviour pattern of producers that is either compatible with perfect competition or based on an investment decision that plays a role in the macro-economic adjustment mechanism but which lacks a microeconomic justification.      

Tests of microeconomic foundations of Asian common currency areas

The formation of the euro bloc sparked renewed interest in other potential common currency areas. Swofford [Swofford, J. L. (2000). Microeconomic foundations of an optimal currency area. Review of Financial Economics, 9, 121–128] set forth some microeconomic foundations for a common currency area. In this paper, some results from tests of these microeconomic foundations for various hypothesized Asian common currency areas are presented. These results can be viewed as broadly favorable for the formation of some Asian common currency areas.     

Towards an analysis of tax effects on labour market and allocation: A micro/macro approach

Summary Tax effects on labour market and allocation are analysed with a sectoral model which is based on the microeconomic theory of the behaviour of economic agents. The model contains a highly disaggregated household sector, an enterprise sector, equilibrium unemployment on the labour market and a detailed modelling of institutional aspects of the tax and social security system. The model is calibrated for 1985. Simulation results show that temporary increases of world trade and higher value-added tax rates do not affect the equilibrium unemployment rate in the long run. A higher replacement rate of unemployment benefits increases unemployment and a tax reform containing lower marginal and average tax rates reduces unemployment.The authors thank F.J.H. Don, C.J.J. Eijgenraam, F.H. Huizinga and R.M. van Opstal for assistance on the household model, the cumulated production structure approach, the wage model and the model of firm behaviour respectively, and other colleagues of the Central Planning Bureau for useful comments.See Shoven and Whalley (1984) and Borges (1986) for reviews, and Keller (1980) for an application to The Netherlands.See, for instance, Abel (1980), Summers (1981), Bruno and Sachs (1985), Van de Klundert and Peters (1986).Ginsburgh and Mercenier (1988) review AGE modelling and the disequilibrium approach.     

Understanding the Cyclical Nature of Financial Intermediation Costs

Intermediation costs (i.e., all noninterest bank expenses) are counter‐cyclical and their changes have significant effects at the country‐level; however, the literature is silent on what drives their cyclicality. Previous studies have examined costs using cross‐sectional or low frequency data and thus cannot capture dynamic macroeconomic effects across time. We fill this gap by examining U.S. intermediation costs using a quarterly, bank‐level dataset from 1993 through 2012. This data set allows for the separation of microeconomic and macroeconomic factors affecting the cyclicality of costs. The analysis shows that house prices are the main driving source of this counter‐cyclicality. Because housing is used as collateral, a price decline leads banks to increase their operating costs for monitoring, screening and litigation costs which cause a credit crunch in the economy.     

Bank lending behaviour under a liquidity constraint

In this paper, we propose a new model of bank lending behaviour, in which there are three possible regimes under asymmetric information. We have found empirical evidence for the existence of the third regime, in which banks lend under their liquidity constraint. In this regime, both the land price index and bank capital have large and positive effects on bank loans. On the other hand, the call rate and economic activity (real GDP) have negative effects. Moreover, we have a new understanding of how financial liberalization and the regulation of bank capital also affect bank lending behaviour.     

Estimating Cost Functions of Malaysian Commercial Banks: The Differential Effects of Size,Location, and Ownership*

Bank integration and competition policies are a core part of current financial reforms intended to strengthen the financial sector in Malaysia. This paper intends to clarify the production technology employed in Malaysian banks and indicate important policy implications for current bank consolidation policy. While it is essential to conduct a microeconomic analysis of the banking sector to appraise financial reform policy, Katib and Mathews (2000) is the only formal study in this area that uses micro level data on Malaysian banks. Our analysis expands on Katib and Mathews’ study in three aspects. Firstly, while Katib and Mathews employed Data Envelopment Analysis, we use estimation analysis based on a parametric approach. Secondly, we examine technological differences among Malaysian banks according to the size of operations, location of branches and ownership structure. Thirdly, we also explicitly incorporate the existence of hidden bad loans in estimating cost functions. According to our estimation analysis, there is a difference in production technology between large‐sized banks and small or medium‐sized banks. While economies of scale are observed for large‐sized banks, no economies of scope and technological progress are observed for any banks. The results of our analysis suggest that, while the current reform policy is basically appropriate, serious problems remain regarding bank consolidation and the lack of market competition.     

Bank Lending and Inflation in Malaysia: Assessment from Unrestricted Error-Correction Models

The paper estimates inflation models for Malaysia by considering the influence of bank lending. The unrestricted error-correction model (UECM) proposed in Pesaran et al. (2000) was employed as being appropriate for small sample analysis such as the present study which covered annual data from 1973 to 1997. The results of 'bounds' tests confirmed a long-run equilibrium relationship between inflation and its determinants, namely import price, money supply (M3), bank credit and real income. The estimated UECMs revealed that the important factors in the Malaysian inflation process are import price and real-income variables. It was found that concurrent fiscal policies had a major influence on the impact of the depreciation of the naira on inflation. The UECMs appear to perform well and to provide an appropriate framework for forecasting the Malaysian inflation behaviour.     

银行定期存款客户预测——基于Lasso-Forest方法

从定性角度通过对数据进行描述性统计分析，给予银行营销策略建议。使用Lasso-Forest、Logistic、决策树及SVM模型分别进行建模分析，结合不平衡数据处理方法SMOTE算法，使用一系列评价指标进行模型效果评估，得到最优模型。所提出的Lasso-Forest组合模型具有比上述其他模型更精确的预测效果，识别准确率达到93%。使用提供的营销策略以及Lasso-Forest模型可以有效降低银行成本，对客户类型进行精确识别并加以针对性营销，以此达到增加银行定期存款储备的目的。     

Education and the natural rate of unemployment

We show how changes in the educational composition of the labourforce affect both the level and the behaviour over time of aggregateunemployment series. We also demonstrate that if it had notbeen for such changes, the US unemployment series would look'European' since the within-group unemployment series all havethat same appearance. We derive a natural-rate model of unemploymentfor two education groups, providing microfoundations for inter-groupdifferences in wages and unemployment, and evaluate its plausibilityin light of microeconomic evidence.     

Migrant happiness in China

In China, surveys find that migrant households’ average happiness (compared with rural households) is lower despite higher income. These findings appear to contradict the standard microeconomic utility function, which predicts that higher income will always result in higher utility. We show that an intuitively plausible modification of the utility function, relating income to status and security utility, preserves standard microeconomic maximization results, and also provides a consistent explanation for the empirical findings on happiness. These results lead to some novel but intuitively plausible implications for economic development in China and elsewhere.     

考虑非期望产出的我国商业银行经营效率研究

考虑到商业银行经营活动中非期望产出的存在,文章利用一种新的生产技术描述方式将不良贷款纳入银行经营活动的投入产出框架中,借助于有向距离函数构建了要求净利润最大化的一维效率模型和同时要求净利润增加与不良贷款减少的二维效率模型,以此为基础,分析了我国主要商业银行的效率表现.研究表明:14家商业银行的经营效率在2005-2010年间得到了一定程度的提高,一维效率的提升幅度较二维效率更大些,净利润和不良贷款同比例增加与减少的潜力在22.3％～32.8％;不同的评价标准导致了部分商业银行经营效率相对排名的变化,不良贷款的多少是其主要影响因素;此外,银行经营活动的稳健性有待加强.     

Investor behaviour in a nascent capital market: Scottish bank shareholders in the nineteenth century

This article uses the records of nineteenth‐century Scottish banks in an attempt to understand investor behaviour in the early British capital market. It presents four main findings, some of which do not conform to the basic assumptions of standard asset pricing theories. First, in an era when efficient portfolio diversification was not possible, the intrinsic risk of an equity security was an important input into investor decision‐making. Second, our evidence suggests that businesspeople initially regarded bank stock as a consumption good, as being a stockholder gave them privileged access to bank finance. When bank lending practices changed in the middle of the century, this access‐to‐credit advantage associated with owning bank stock largely disappeared. Third, investors typically exhibited a bias towards banks that conducted business in the areas where they resided. Fourth, a sizeable proportion of investors were stockholders in more than one bank.     

An oligopoly model of free banking: Theory and tests

Summary The paper demonstrates that in an environment of free banking where some agents have imperfect information regarding the circulation and debasement rates of alternative money suppliers, the equilibrium supply of money involves mixed strategies. It follows that the circulation and debasement rates are intrinsically stochastic, but that their averages are below the rates set by a monopoly bank. Empirical tests reveal that these predictions are consistent with the free banking era of the United States. The paper is also relevant for the discussion about the future monetary union in the EC. We are grateful to J. Carlson, D. Jansen, R. van der Ploeg and the referees for their stimulating comments, to L.T. Gordon of the Krannert Economics Library for providing the data, and to J.G. Song for his able computational assistance.     

Autonomy and Effectiveness of Chinese Monetary Policy under the De Facto Fixed Exchange Rate System

This paper uses monthly data to examine the autonomy and effectiveness of monetary policy in China under the de facto fixed exchange rate arrangement in place from 1998 to 2005. The results obtained from Granger causality tests in a vector autoregression framework indicate that： （i） China actually conducted independent monetary policy during the fixed exchange rate period; and （ii） market-oriented policy measures are impotent in influencing real output and prices. The framework of the investigation into the autonomy of monetary policy adapts to the Chinese economic condition that primary loan and deposit rates are set by the central bank. Based on the empirical results, the present paper provides alternative strategies to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy in China, including developing the financial system and solidifying microeconomic fundamentals instead of forcing the adaptation of a more flexible exchange rate regime.     

Evaluation of investment projects based on a complex of interindustry and interregional models

This paper presents a methodical approach and complex of economic and mathematical models to evaluate the efficiency of large investment projects implemented on the basis of public private partnership mechanisms permitting to forecast public results of projects simultaneously implemented at the macro-, meso-, and microeconomic levels.     

International Trade and Bank Groups: Welfare Enhancing or Welfare Reducing?

In international competition, are bank groups efficiency enhancing or efficiency reducing? This paper attempts to clarify this issue by asking instead: efficiency for whom? In a simple, illustrative model, this paper shows that bank groups can be efficiency enhancing for the bank and the member firms, but hurting its competitor. More important global welfare rises with bank groups. These results are robust when we allow the bank and the member firm to bargain over its loan rate, when bank groups can be formed endogenously and when there are multiple exporters. Results in this paper suggest alternative interpretations of existing econometric results concerning the role of Japanese groups in U.S.–Japan trade. J. Japan. Int. Econ., June 2002, 16(2) pp. 212–226. Department of Economics, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California.     

从“三元悖论”谈我国人民币汇率制度的选择

作为经典的汇率制度选择依据——“三元悖论“，长期以来一直被学术界所信奉，同样在我国，近年来关于人民币汇率制度的选择问题也是一直以此为基石。认为人民币汇率制度的选择主要依据是我国中央银行的货币政策自主。然而本文将利用Mendel-Fleming和Mendel-Fleming-Dombusch两个模型去分析，得出即使在国际资本完全不自由流动下的固定汇率政策以及在国际资本的完全自由流动情况下的浮动汇率政策都无法完全得以实现，从而理清了我国人民币汇率制度选择时依赖于中央银行货币政策自主的模糊认识。     

从“三元悖论”谈我国人民币汇率制度的选择

作为经典的汇率制度选择依据--"三元悖论",长期以来一直被学术界所信奉,同样在我国,近年来关于人民币汇率制度的选择问题也是一直以此为基石.认为人民币汇率制度的选择主要依据是我国中央银行的货币政策自主,然而本文将利用Mendel-Fleming和Mendel-Fleming-Dornbusch两个模型去分析,得出即使在国际资本完全不自由流动下的固定汇率政策以及在国际资本的完全自由流动情况下的浮动汇率政策都无法完全得以实现,从而理清了我国人民币汇率制度选择时依赖于中央银行货币政策自主的模糊认识.     

Effects of wages on job tenure

In this article, the effect of wages on the job tenure is studied using microeconomic data on industrial companies. The data cover a period of 11 years starting from the first quarter of 1980 and contain several pieces of information on workers, jobs, and companies. The models were estimated in a competing risk framework. According to the results the wage groups of the workers and relative wage within a company are positively related to the job tenure. These effects are larger among the persons who leave the industry than among the persons who find new industrial jobs.     

Influence of real estate prices on domestic bank loans in Southeast Asia

This study examines whether and how fluctuations in real estate prices affected bank lending in Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand before and after the 1997–98 Asian financial crisis. Since the crisis, it has been claimed that the rise and fall in the price of real estate, which is used as collateral, affected bank lending and the macroeconomy in these Southeast Asian countries. The study implements a dynamic model of bank lending and employs a test using the panel data of domestic bank balance sheets in order to estimate the influence of real estate prices on new bank lending in the three countries. The study also examines the conditions surrounding the role of real estate as collateral for bank loans in the countries. The regression results suggest that fluctuations in real estate prices can influence domestic bank lending and did so, especially after the crisis in Singapore and Thailand, and that domestic bank lending behaviour in these countries changed after the crisis.