Globalization and Global Economic Governance

This article focuses on the World Trade Organization (WTO) andthe International Monetary Fund (IMF). It starts by noting thatthe case for creating such institutions is not self-evident,since the liberal order of the nineteenth century lacked comparableones. Nevertheless, these institutions perform valuable functions.The article then considers the criticisms of the WTO and theIMF. It finds most, thought not all, unjustified. It concludesthat the WTO could be improved. But, without it, the big powerswould do what they want to an even greater extent than theyalready do. Similarly, while the IMF has made significant mistakes,notably in its promotions of capital-market liberalization,prior to the Asian financial crisis, the charges against itare exaggerated. Finally, the article considers the possibilityof creating new institutions to cover investment, migration,taxation, and the environment.     

资本市场自由化、经济发展与中国经济外交

经济全球化最受争议的一个问题是资本市场自由化,其中包括外国直接投资规制措施和短期资本流动规制措施的自由化。虽然大部分外国直接投资能够促进经济发展,但是,包含投机性热钱在内的短期资本流动,带来的是虚假经济繁荣。资本市场自由化会加剧顺经济周期的短期资本流动,带来消费的急剧波动,造成宏观经济动荡,阻碍经济增长,不利于经济发展。中国在国际金融领域的经济外交,应该加强资本控制,抑制短期资本投机活动;适时推进货币整合进程,分散短期资本流动带来的金融风险;推动国际经济治理民主化,公平分担短期资本冲击的代价。     

Inflation,stabilization and attempted redemocratization in Peru, 1975–1979

This paper discusses the acute stabilization crisis of 1975–1978 and attempts to explain why, for so long, it proved difficult to handle both in economic and in political terms. The role of external creditors, in particular the International Monetary Fund (IMF), is discussed. We examine the response of the entrepreneurial and labour sectors to the policy of the government, and attempt to explain why a coup along Chilean lines would have been very difficult to impose in Peru. Finally we analyse the implications of the recovery of 1979, when suddenly IMF targets were easily fulfilled, but with a proposed return to democracy and not, as in the southern-cone countries, a repressive authoritarianism. The development of 1979 do not qualify the earlier analysis of the unsuitability of abrupt and orthodox stabilization to an economy such as Peru's.     

Economic openness and trade linkages of China: An empirical study of the determinants of chinese trade intensities from 1993 to 1999

In the 1980s, the Chinese regime took a number of piecemeal steps toward economic liberalization. This process accelerated impressively in the 1990s. This paper reports an empirical study into the determinants of the emerging pattern of Chinese trade (export and import) intensities in the liberalization decade by exploring international trade statistics for 1993 and 1999. Four models are estimated that explain the shifts in the export and import intensities of the trade with different trade partners in the 1993–1999 period. The estimation results reveal differences for export vis-à-vis import trade intentities, as well as for 1993 compared to 1999. For example, the political determinants of trade intensities that were still very important in 1993 have been moved to the background by economic explanations in 1999. JEL no. F14     

Stabilization: The political economy of overkill

This paper considers whether national and international aspects of the IMF's stabilization programmes during the 1970s and early 1980s have resulted in a process of ‘overkill’ — or, in other words, a process of economic retrenchment which went much further than was strictly necessary in terms of what could have been regarded as reasonable objectives. In the international context, the author describes how the attack on inflation has become an end in itself, at the expense of other stated objectives of the IMF, thus creating a distortion of its priorities. The paper discusses errors of diagnosis which have led to this disorientation and explains why deflationary policies should not be regarded as a panacea. The paper then considers the nead for equity and efficiency in the distribution of the political and economic costs of adjustment.The next section of this paper discusses the assumptions underlying the IMF's treatment of Fund members and to what extent ‘even-handedness’ in the application of stabilization measures may result in inequality of burden-sharing among borrowers. Problems related to monetarist theories and the consequent policies are examined, followed by a consideration of the dangers involved in devising ‘straightforward’ performance criteria in the form of precise monetary targets that can readily be monitored by the IMF. This means of evaluating the national adjustment policies' success is seen to be unsatisfactory, viz. the frequency of stand-by arrangement breakdowns and mistakes in forecasting.The paper concludes that the concept of unilateral adjustment is not an acceptable basis for IMF supervision of the international monetary system. In addition, care should be taken to avoid overkill in determining the degree and character of adjustment needed in stabilization programmes. One possible solution to the extra burden imposed on the LDCs might be a liberalization of the compensatory financing facility with the objective of applying the same kind of regime to imports as to exports.     

服务业FDI自由化与我国经济福利关系实证分析

本文利用我国1985~2005年数据对服务业FDI自由化与福利效应之间的关系进行实证分析发现:服务业FDI自由化在长期内有利于我国经济福利的改善,但短期内对我国经济福利的影响不显著。同时发现,服务业FDI自由化不是我国经济福利增加的Granger原因,而我国经济福利增加却是服务业FDI自由化的Granger原因。     

Mexico from bust to boom: A political evaluation of the 1976–1979 stabilization programme

This paper evaluates Mexico's recent experience of economic stabilization policies (under the the 3-yr Extended Fund Facility arranged with the IMF in September 1976) from a comparative politics standpoint. By comparison with various South American experiences of inflation and stabilization that were discussed in the same Wilson Centre workshop, Mexico's short-term performance must be rated quite favourably. This was not a case in which Fund orthodoxy prevailed at every point, nor was the Fund analysis accepted without qualification by Mexico's policy-markers. At the end of the period, economic disequilibria, as measured by IMF criteria, remained considerably larger than the 3-yr plan had envisaged, but ‘confidence’ had been restored and rapid growth was in prospect. The interpretation offered in the paper is that Mexico's cyclical pattern of presidential politics largely determined the effective contents of the stabilization package, and that the resilience of the Mexican system of political management goes far to explain why the economic outcome was more favourable than in the South American cases. An accident of geological endowment (the nation's huge oil resources) certainly accentuated the process of recovery from ‘bust’ to ‘boom’, but this factor did not operate in isolation, and should not be considered an adequate explanation on its own. The impact of a geological endowment upon economic conditions depends upon political mediation. However, although this paper seeks to highlight the contribution of Mexican political management to the recent short-term economic improvement, it concludes with some qualifications. The final section considers some constraints on the scope and efficacy of Mexican ‘reformism’, particularly in relation to longer-term and more structural problems.     

THE EVOLUTION OF GENDER EARNINGS GAPS AND DISCRIMINATION IN URBAN CHINA, 1988–95

This paper analyzes the impact of market liberalization on gender earnings differentials and discrimination against women in urban China at the beginning of the 1990s. The observed stability in the overall gender earnings gap between 1988 and 1995 is shown to result from a complex set of evolutions across enterprises, earnings distributions, and time. Our results highlight the interplay of opposing forces, with economic reforms contributing to changes in managers’ behaviors in different dimensions. On the one hand, by bringing more competition, liberalization favored a reduction in discriminating behaviors in both urban collectives and foreign‐invested enterprises; on the other hand, by relaxing institutional rules, it led to a loosening of the government's egalitarian wage‐setting policies, leaving more space for discrimination in state‐owned enterprises.     

Thirty years of legal and economic reform in China: growth,institutions, and laws

China's impressive economic growth over three decades has seemingly occurred in the absence of a strong legal system. This paper views China's reform process over the past three decades as one that has entailed a gradual introduction of market forces into areas of the economy, which requires both dismantling the structure of the centrally planned economy and developing market-oriented institutions. This paper argues that China's transition is premised on a set of informal, and increasingly formal, institutions that provided incentives during the process of gradual liberalization. Therefore, institutional developments were not absent. The exploration of the interplay between growth and institutions leads to the conclusion that continued economic growth in China will depend on implementing legal reforms better suited to the nature of the decentralized economy, hastened by the introduction of international economic laws and rules with greater global integration.     

贸易自由化、劳动流动与就业结构调整

就业结构的适时调整对于中国加快转变经济发展方式有积极意义。本文借助就业结构调整指数的构建,将劳动流动的因素纳入到贸易自由化对中国就业结构调整的影响之中,定量分析了二者对就业结构调整的影响。研究结果表明,贸易自由化程度和劳动流动自由程度的提高对中国就业结构调整有正向影响,但这种影响具有区域差异。     

Understanding China's grain procurement policy from a perspective of optimization

This paper develops an optimization model to analyze the policy formulation under China's dual-track grain procurement system. By capturing the redistribution objective and the urban food security objective in a political preference function, we provide some rigorous explanations of three important aspects of China's grain policies: the choice of the dual-track procurement system over the lump-sum tax scheme as a means of extracting economic surpluses from the grain sector; the suppression of the procurement price to its minimum until the mid-1990s; and the switch from taxing to subsidizing grain production at end-1996. Our findings underscore the paramount importance of the urban food security objective behind the evolution of China's grain procurement policy, including the liberalization of the system in the 2000s.     

Economic Liberalization and the Computer Industry: Comparing Outcomes in Brazil and Mexico

Market liberalization has been carried out by many developing countries in the hopes of stimulating trade, investment and technology transfer. In order to analyze the impacts of liberalization on a specific industry sector, this paper compares the experiences of Brazil and Mexico in liberalizing the computer industry in the 1990s. The authors conclude that liberalization leads to lower prices and more rapid diffusion of computer use throughout the economy, but at a cost to domestic computer firms who were harmed by foreign competition. Both countries saw an increase in computer production, but Mexico's production was mainly for export to the United States, while Brazil was producing for the domestic market. The differences between outcomes in the two countries have been determined more by environmental factors than by the nature and pace of liberalization.     

The Tet offensive: A turning point in America's Asian policy

A series of financial crises in emerging market economies during the 1990s have been a catalyst for efforts to strengthen the international financial system. Indeed, much has been done to strengthen the architecture of the international financial system, both in terms of crisis prevention and crisis management. The powerful G‐7 countries have made it clear that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) plays a significant role in shaping the new global financial architecture. However, is the IMF up to the task? This paper argues that despite its many limitations, the IMF is an important institution that can strengthen the global financial system. The paper begins with a discussion of what the IMF is and what it is not This will help put in perspective the nature, mandate, and role of this much‐misunderstood global institution. The second section reviews some of the recent reforms the IMF has introduced to effectively carry out its new function. While these reforms are hardly revolutionary, they nevertheless, will significantly strengthen both the domestic and international financial system. The third section examines the Achilles heel of the IMF—that its policies promote moral hazard. How effectively have the IMF reforms addressed this? It is argued that although the problems associated with moral hazard can never be fully eliminated, the IMF reforms will greatly mitigate the problem. It is very likely that for the foreseeable future, the IMF will continue to serve as an informal international lender of last resort.     

Political institutions,entrenchments, and the sustainability of economic development – A lesson from rural finance

This paper provides insights on the sustainability of economic development from a historical and political economy perspective. We demonstrate that China's rural financial policy in the 1980s was quite liberal in employing market mechanisms, supporting entrepreneurship, and encouraging competition. These policies were abandoned in the early 1990s and replaced by ubiquitous government interferences that shifted resource and policy priorities to benefit political incumbents. A large panel of survey data confirms that rural household access to finance decreased dramatically in the 1990s and that the statistical significance of economic entrepreneurial factors in determining credit allocation also fell. Further empirical analyses show that market economic conditions are not sufficient to explain these changes and the evidence is consistent with a political entrenchment motive during the political regime after the turmoil in the year 1989. Given the connection between entrenchment and underdevelopment, our findings raise the concern that China's political institutions' insufficient limits on the government could be a challenge for China to sustain its economic success.     

政府采购、贸易自由化与发展——政府采购贸易自由化理论综述与批判

基于我国参与政府采购贸易自由化谈判的紧迫性和国内政府采购制度发展的战略需要,对新自由主义政府采购贸易自由化理论这一世贸组织《政府采购协议》的理论基石进行系统全面的梳理,考察这一理论如何推动西方现代政府采购制度的建立,如何积极促成政府采购市场的贸易自由化,以及如何建立政府采购贸易自由化与发展之间的联系。在此基础上采取庖丁解牛的方法,对新自由主义政府采购贸易自由化理论体系的构成要素逐一进行批判性评论,指出这一理论体系的薄弱和矛盾之处,以及对中国参与《政府采购协议》谈判的启示意义。     

Modelling reality

There is a thriving debate on the usefulness of economic modelsfor policy analysis which this paper explores. It argues thatthere is a need for models that incorporate both the modernintertemporal approach to macroeconomics and short-run ad-hocbehaviour. This need cannot be met by the simple models thatpermeate the macroeconomics literature, but requires large-scalesimulation models such as the MSG2 and G-Cubed multi-countrymodels. In particular, it is shown that the approach of thesemodels gives insights into the adjustment into a number of historicalepisodes which are not well explained by simple macroeconomicframeworks: Reaganomics in the 1980s; German reunification inthe early 1990s; fiscal consolidation in Europe in the 1990s;the formation of NAFTA; the Asian Crisis; and the current productivityboom in the USA. The paper also argues that using a well-definedtheoretical specification but introducing real-world rigiditiescan also go some way towards explaining the so called 'six majorpuzzles in international macroeconomics' highlighted in a recentpaper by Obstfeld and Rogoff (2000).     

Macro Economic Determinants of Antidumping: A Comparative Analysis of Developed and Developing Countries

This study examines how macro factors influence the use of antidumping in developed and developing countries. A panel data analysis of 99 countries over 1980–2000 reinforces the view that the primary jurisdiction for the antidumping law is really more political than economic. Furthermore, it suggests that once the WTO is fully enforced, the use of antidumping will spread among developing countries not only due to greater liberalization pressures but also as many countries would like to create an antidumping ability so as to counter its use against them. This may reverse the trade gains that liberalization may ensure to them. This paper thus calls for the granting of the special and differential treatment to developing countries in this provision. Finally, based on its findings, the paper argues that future negotiations should be directed toward revising safeguard rules and replacing antidumping by this new clause.     

Money Demand and Economic Liberalization in a Small Open Economy—Trinidad and Tobago

Economic liberalization creates potential instability in money demand. The introduction of liberalization in the early 1990s coincided with instability in the long-run demand for broad money (M2). OLS estimates confirm the presence of a structural break in the M2 model. Monetary policy should be based on a narrow definition of money. Moreover, the demand for money function must take explicit account of the openness of the economy. The results have important implications for policymakers in other Caribbean countries that are contemplating economic liberalization.     

Openness,Regional Trade Agreements and Growth: Evidence from Asia*

This paper assesses the relationship between regional trade agreements, trade integration and economic growth in 21 South and South‐East Asian countries over the period from 1980 to 2004. We aim to answer the following questions. First, how does the trade policy of a given country (and countries within the same region) affect a nation's domestic growth? Second, should developing economies in South and South‐East Asia engage in regional trade agreements (RTA) or move towards broad liberalization? Our results show that openness of either a single country or of its neighbors does not affect a nation's growth and that the impacts of RTA are unclear (if not detrimental to growth in some cases, once endogeneity is accounted for). Panel Granger‐causality tests running from openness to growth yield mixed results and some conclusions depend on the particular subsample under scrutiny.     

Indonesian economic development: Mirage or miracle?

This paper focuses on a few major developments that took place during the three decades from the late 1960s to the Asian financial crisis. The study finds, in retrospect, that many of the Indonesian economy’s weaknesses—now so glaringly apparent—were there all the time. The paper concludes that the Indonesian banking crisis was primarily domestic in nature, more so than the crises in Korea and Thailand. The extent of the failure was much more widespread and probably resulted from a chain of bank runs and bank closings, reinforced by uncertainty and lack of faith in the government’s commitment to the IMF program and IMF fumbling.