货币政策对北京房价的影响分析

2003年以来,面对全国房价普遍上涨趋势,人民银行先后出台了一系列以调控房地产市场为目标的货币政策,但调控的效果如何有待检验和论证。本文以北京房价变化为例,分析和实证了货币政策对房地产市场的调控效果。并对提高货币政策的有效性提出了相关建议。     

现行房价调控措施分析及对策研究

本文认为,“房地产新政”出台实施以来,效果很不理想,其中原因主要是调控策略和税收调控的着力点选择不完全正确。为此,提出了增加经济适用房和廉租房供给、降低地价、严控信贷及改变税收调控着力点四个方面的政策建议。     

波动率风险及风险价格——来自中国A股市场的证据

本文应用Fama-Macbeth估计方法,以1997年2月至2009年6月中国A股股票为样本,考察股票市场波动率风险及其风险价格的特征。研究表明:波动率风险是一个显著的横截面定价因子,其风险价格为负,该结论不受流动性及市场偏度因子、待检资产改变、波动率模型设定的影响;在资产定价模型中引入波动率风险因子有利于解释规模效应和账面市值比效应异象。波动率的风险因子可以涵盖部分宏观经济变量的定价信息,规模因子是波动率风险因子的代理变量。     

Evaluating the Usefulness of the American Housing Survey for Creating House Price Indices

The American Housing Survey (AHS) is a valuable source of information on houses and occupants over time. The AHS has several advantages over sales data for use in the creation of price indices: it is readily available, has frequent observations over time and space, has data from the late 1970s through the mid-1990s, includes houses that do not sell, as well as those that do, and has information on the occupants. The drawbacks include: a time lag between the interview and the release of the data, data suppression issues, owner-stated house values, and a lack of neighborhood information. In this study, we use the metropolitan version of the AHS, which has been supplemented with the original survey data as well as Census tract data for three cities over 14 years to examine whether the AHS can be used to create indices. Indices are estimated using hedonic, repeat valuation, and hybrid techniques, overcoming some of the problems inherent in the estimation of indices. We find that the data-suppression issues and the owner-stated house values are not problematic. The biggest drawback of the AHS is its lack of objective information on neighborhood quality.     

人民币汇率波动与中国股票价格报酬之间的相关性——基于2005年至2007年的实证分析

本文以2005年7月21日至2007年9月18日的中国股价与人民币兑美元的名义汇率数据,利用GARCH模型来探讨在这段时间内人民币汇率波动对中国股票价格报酬的影响。实证结果得知,在这段时间内人民币兑美元名义汇率波动是负向影响中国股票价格报酬的,也符合有价证券余额理论的主张;汇率市场对股票市场的影响在宏观决策中应予以高度重视。     

Futures Trading Activity and Commodity Cash Price Volatility

Abstract:   This paper examines the lead‐lag relationship between futures trading activity (volume and open interest) and cash price volatility for major agricultural commodities. Granger causality tests and generalized forecast error variance decompositions show that an unexpected increase in futures trading volume unidirectionally causes an increase in cash price volatility for most commodities. Likewise, there is a weak causal feedback between open interest and cash price volatility. These findings are generally consistent with the destabilizing effect of futures trading on agricultural commodity markets.     

货币供给、通货膨胀和粮食价格波动互动关系研究

在VAR模型和方差分解基础上,利用1997年以来的月度数据,分析货币供应量、通货膨胀和粮食价格之间的关系。结果显示：通货膨胀对粮食价格有显著影响,存在货币供应量、通货膨胀到粮食价格变动这一传导途径,同时发现通货膨胀有较强的自身惯性,通过抑制粮食价格来控制通货膨胀是无效的。     

The Dividend Pricing Model: New Evidence from the Korean Housing Market

It is generally conceded that dividend pricing models are poor predictors of asset prices. This finding is sometimes attributed to excess volatility or to a dividend process manipulated by firm managers. In this paper, we present rather powerful panel tests of the dividend pricing relation using a unique data set in which dividends are set by market forces independent of managers' preferences. We rely on observations on the market for condominium dwellings in Korea—perhaps the only market in which information on dividends and prices is publicly and continuously available to consumers and investors. We extend the “dividend-price ratio model” to panels of housing returns and rents differentiated by type and location. We find broad support for the dividend pricing model during periods both before and after the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997–1998, suggesting that the market for housing assets in Korea has been remarkably efficient. Previous versions of this paper were presented at the Hong Kong-Singapore International Real Estate Research Symposium, August 2004, Hong Kong and the meeting of the Hong Kong Economic Association, January 2005. We are grateful for the comments of Ashok Bardhan, Yuming Fu, Chinmoy Ghosh, Lok Sang Ho, Charles Ka Yui Leung, Sau Kim Lum and Seow Eng Ong. Son's research was supported by the Konkuk University and Hwang's research was supported by the National University of Singapore.     

Fund Volatility Index using equity market state prices

The Fund Volatility Index (FVX) is proposed as a forward measure of volatility with applications in fund hedging and risk management. The method applies equity market state prices to individual fund pay‐offs. FVX is validated as a predictor of short‐term realised volatility for 30 exchange traded funds. Performance of the method is compared with existing methods using a data set of 14 925 non‐traded funds. FVX has lower bias and higher forecast accuracy than existing methods. As a more general measure, it allows for incorporation of terms to capture individual fund skewness and projection of higher moments of returns.     

The Impact of Information Release on Stock Price Volatility and Trading Volume: The Rights Offering Case

This paper examines whether information released via rights offering announcements induces changes in price volatility and trading volume of underlying stock. The results of this paper provide support for the release of new information via offering announcements and evidence of its effects on price volatility and volume of underlying stock. Specifically, utilization of the announced information by investors is evidenced by greater trading volume following the announcement date than during the pre-announcement period. We interpret this result to mean that informedness dominates consensus. However, stock price volatility decreased from the pre-announcement period to the post-expiration period of rights offerings.