浅谈金融危机形势下企业的审计风险

当前，世界性金融危机犹如飓风一样席卷全球，对实体经济造成了空前强度的冲击，这场风暴导致我国企业也面对诸多严重的不利因素。面临经营风险，企业为应付金融危机粉饰财务报表，一定程度上又增加了审计风险。面对金融危机，企业必须采取相应的有力措旌对审计风险进行防范与控制。     

金融风险社会化的最后防线及我国的现实选择

金融风险社会化是金融风险从金融系统溢出，蔓延至实体经济、国家财政甚至社会公众的过程，这种风险扩散后患无穷。通过对历次金融危机的梳理，总结金融风险社会化的一般路径，厘清国家财政必须承担起金融风险社会化最后防线的责任，并参考国际经验和我国国情，提出防范金融风险社会化的政策建议。     

全球金融危机对中国实体经济影响分析

自2008年10月开始,由美国国家刺激危机引发的全球性金融风暴开始侵蚀实体经济.世界几个主要经济体的经济增速已经出现明显下滑,失业率剧增,世界经济出现衰退.作为发展中大国,中国经济也毋庸置疑得受到了此次金融风暴的冲击.本论文遗针对全球金融危机对中国实体经济的具体影响做出了较为详细的分析,并且结合当前中国实体经济发展状况,对我国金融系统的稳定做出一些政策性建议.     

对我国金融创新与金融监管相关问题的思考

美国经济最大的特点是虚拟经济，即高度依赖虚拟资本的循环来创造利润。虚拟经济本身并不创造价值，其存在必须依附于实体生产性经济。当前的美国金融危机是经济过度虚拟化和自由化后果的集中反映。有数据显示，全球金融衍生品总值达到480万亿美元，而全球实体经济GDP的年度总值也只有50万亿美元，创新的帽子显然太大了。这告诉我们，在开发金融衍生产品的同时必须加强相应监管，避免过度开发，从而控制风险规模。     

金融危机中珠三角中小企业的挑战与对策

随着金融危机的深化，世界经济下滑停滞仍未停止，供需出现严重不平衡，产能过剩困扰着几乎所有的经济部门，原来寄予希望的实体经济对金融市场形成恶性反馈回路。在金融危机的深度打击下，珠三角中小企业传统市场严重萎缩，传统经营模式受到重大的冲击。     

系统性风险下商业银行经营策略研究

2009年是国内商业银行艰难的一年。国际金融市场剧烈动荡,危机正加速从虚拟经济向实体经济扩散。国内经济面临诸多不确定因素,实体经济下滑影响存在一定的时滞,2009年国内商业银行信贷资产质量压力加大。鉴于本次风险具有极其明显的系统性特征,探究商业银行当前需要迫切关注和重点防范的系统性风险问题,并提出有针对性的对策建议。     

浅析次贷危机及其解决对策

美国次贷危机爆发，逐步演变为金融危机并向国外扩散。金融危机又迅速影响实体经济，全球性经济衰退的风险明显增大。本文介绍了美国金融危机的内在原因、如何走出金融危机和中国预防攻击性金融危机之策。     

金融危机对我国加工贸易升级的影响

金融危机的迅速蔓延对我国实体经济的影响逐步显现,尤其是"大进大出"的加工贸易在金融危机的冲击下迅速下滑。文章系统分析了金融危机对我国加工贸易转型升级的短期和长期影响,提出了相关的政策建议。     

定向宽松财政政策明确指向实体经济

对实体经济倾斜是我国一贯的经济政策,这一政策方向的正确性和重要性在金融危机爆发后更突出地表现出来。尤其在当前,财政政策的定向宽松,也需明确指向实体经济。     

进一步扩大内需的税收政策选择

美国次贷危机引发的全球金融危机使全球经济陷入衰退，这也引致我国经济下滑。本文从当前出口减少，内需不足的新形势出发，对改革和完善税收制度，充分发挥税收在扩大内需中的作用进行一些思考。     

Identifying the global transmission of the 2007–2009 financial crisis in a GVAR model

The paper analyses and compares the role that the tightening in liquidity conditions and the collapse in risk appetite played for the global transmission of the financial crisis. Dealing with identification and the large dimensionality of the empirical exercise with a Global VAR approach, the findings highlight the diversity of the transmission process. While liquidity shocks have had a more severe impact on advanced economies, it was mainly the decline in risk appetite that affected emerging market economies. The tightening of financial conditions was a key transmission channel for advanced economies, whereas for emerging markets it was mainly the real side of the economy that suffered. Moreover, there are some striking differences also within types of economies, with Europe being more adversely affected by the fall in risk appetite than other advanced economies.     

Evaluating sovereign risk spillovers on domestic banks during the European debt crisis

Using a Markov-switching model with time-varying probabilities, spillovers from sovereign to domestic bank CDS spreads during the European debt crisis for a set of 14 European countries and 30 European banks are investigated. Our model is able to capture how the increased sovereign risk observed between 2010 and 2013 throughout Europe has impacted i) the probability that banks fall into a crisis regime and ii) the probability that banks stay in the crisis regime. The latter state is characterized by a high volatility and large positive returns of CDS spreads. Different regime-dependent indicators have been computed to assess heterogeneity within the region. The evidence indicates that the intensification of sovereign risk observed during the European debt crisis has positively and significantly driven the regime shifts in volatility of the bank CDS spreads due to increased risk aversion. The results show that the increase in sovereign credit risk seems to have generated second-round effects for some banks that have experienced a deterioration in their funding conditions due to a rise in the domestic sovereign default risk. Overall, our results suggest that sovereign CDS spreads can be considered good forewarning indicators for predicting the evolution of bank CDS spreads. We also find that the effects differ depending on the country and the financial institution. This result suggests that banks are heterogeneously exposed to sovereign credit risk within the same country. One argument relates to the size of these financial institutions and the domestic exposure to sovereign debt.     

Catastrophe theory and the financial crisis

This paper develops and estimates catastrophe‐augmented models of the financial crisis. We employ catastrophe theory to explain discontinuous jumps in state variables of dynamic systems. We estimate an augmented bank failure model showing that the buildup of risk and an increase in the Federal Funds rate combined with low reserves (negative insurance effect) have been the main drivers of the financial crisis. Therefore, macroprudential policy and rating agencies play a key role in preventing the buildup of (systemic) risk and preventing the economy from entering a bifurcation area.     

Bank loan versus financial lease: how do traditional and innovative approaches within the banking sector influence economic growth? A comparative analysis between the US and China

ABSTRACT

The argument over the effects of financial structures on economic growth remains unsettled. This study, therefore, compares the dynamic correlation and lead–lag relationship between the different financial approaches within the banking sector (that is, traditional bank loans versus innovative financial leasing) and economic growth. We employ a continuous wavelet analysis using time-series data from 1982–2017 from the US (the world’s largest developed country) and China (the world’s largest developing country). The empirical results show that (1) episodes of significant correlation usually emerge during periods of reform, crisis or policy implementation; and (2) in China, traditional banking promotes economic growth in the long term, while the real economy only imputes the evolution of banks during critical economic reforms in the short term. Meanwhile, financial leasing could only promote the development of the real economy under suitable regulation; and (3) in the US, before the crises, the irrational growth of the real economy could increase bank assets, while during the crises, the traditional banking approach harms economic growth, and after the crises, financial leases play an important role in recovery. Therefore, we suggest that policymakers should establish adequate policies and regulations to solve the situation.     

Firm credit in the euro area: a tale of three crises

Using survey data from 2009 to 2011, we analyse the effects of the recent euro area economic, financial and private debt crisis on the supply of and demand for bank finance for small and medium enterprises (SMEs). At the country level, we identify three distinct aspects of the recent crisis in the euro area affecting firm credit through different channels. Controlling for country fixed effects, the impact of a weak real economy on firm credit operates both by reducing firms’ demand for bank financing and by lenders increasing loan rejections and tightening terms and conditions on credit allocated. On the other hand, financial conditions have no significant effect on demand, but they do affect credit supply as we find that financial tensions worsen the chances of obtaining credit and its terms and conditions. We interpret this as evidence of a bank balance sheet channel negatively impacting credit provision. We find that private sector indebtedness has important effects on SMEs’ credit access and its terms and conditions.     

中央银行金融危机救助的成本-收益分析

维护金融稳定是中央银行的一项基本职能,这决定了中央银行在金融危机救助中的主体地位.但中央银行的金融危机救助能力不是无限的,因为无论哪种救助措施都不是无成本的.文章通过成本-收益分析方法,考察了中央银行对金融危机救助的成本与收益,既包括直接成本与直接收益,又包括隐性成本与间接收益,并通过建立成本.收益模型,考察最优的中央银行金融危机救助应满足的条件,结合我国中央银行金融危机救助的实际,提出成本收益分析对我国的启示.     

银行顺周期性文献述评

本文对国内外有关银行顺周期性的文献进行了初步梳理。银行顺周期性在2008年国际金融危机后引起了广泛关注,对其发生机理,学术界从不同视角进行了解读。现行的监管体系由于更多地关注银行机构微观层次的稳健性而对宏观层面的风险关注不够。虽然最新的巴塞尔资本协议进行了有针对性地改进,但其实际效果如何仍有待检验。目前,对银行顺周期的讨论仍存在分歧,有待进行更深层次的研究。     

中国房地产融资途径发展趋势分析

目前房地产融资方式很多，但银行信贷资金比重大的融资格局一直没有改变，这显然与中国不完善的金融市场有关。实行房地产行业融资渠道的多元化，有利于国民经济的健康发展，并可以进一步防范和化解金融风险。     

西方金融资本主义下的寄生阶级、债务通缩与大萧条——兼评迈克尔·赫德森的金融资本主义批判理论

金融资本生成于产业资本、商业资本和银行资本的垄断融合。在支配生产、流通和信用的基础上,金融资本通过定价权、金融投机、地租寻租、支配国债、滥用货币发行权等途径而建立一套寄生性的积累机制。随着金融资本对生产关系的全面支配,金融资本的寄生性积累也越来越系统化、自主化,造成的社会危机也越来越不容易从外部加以克服,但同时,金融资本内部自我否定的逻辑却表现得越来越强烈。金融资本的寄生性积累导致债务膨胀和产业萎缩相互加强的危机,即债务通缩危机。新自由主义量化宽松的反通缩政策,在一定程度上避免了旧版大萧条,却导致了更难以解决的新版大萧条。美国学者赫德森把对金融资本寄生性积累的批判纳入到从古典政治经学到马克思主义政治经济学的传统中,从金融资本的寄生性积累探讨西方经济、政治危机的根源,虽然其金融资本批判理论还因缺乏辩证逻辑而有一定的缺点,但是该理论基本的理论方向是值得肯定的。     

我国商业银行风险预警机制的构建

相对于国外的银行监管机制而言,目前我国商业银行风险防范和预警机制仍不完善,风险管理手段也相对落后。在分析商业银行原有风险预警机制缺陷的基础上,构建了由财务、非财务及EVA等指标体系组成的信贷风险预警系统,并探讨了该系统的实证分析案例,旨在为我国金融监管机构准确评估当前金融危机环境下商业银行的风险状况提供决策依据。