Structural Change and Long‐run Relationships between US and EU Wheat Export Prices

This paper analyses the nature of the long‐run relationship between US and EU wheat export prices over the period 1981–2000. We employ a novel approach of testing for cointegration with structural change developed by Barassi and Taylor (A Test for Change in the Cointegrating Rank, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, 2004). The method enables us to determine the breakpoint, which is found to occur after the 1992 CAP reforms were implemented. On analysing the two separate subperiods, we find no evidence of a long‐run relationship prior to the 1992 CAP reform. However, clear evidence of a long‐run relationship is found after the CAP reforms were implemented. Further analysis reveals that, in the post‐CAP reform period, the EU wheat prices follow then US soft wheat prices, consistent with the EU export subsidy regime over this period, albeit that export subsidies by the EU have been relatively small.     

Spatial Market Efficiency and Policy Regime Change: Seemingly Unrelated Error Correction Model Estimation

We investigate the degree to which the wheat markets of France, Germany, and the United Kingdom are in spatial equilibrium and how reforms to the CAP affect the speed of convergence to the long–run relationship. Due to the interrelationship among these markets and the nonstationarity of our data we introduce a seemingly unrelated regression–augmented Dickey–Fuller and error correction methodology. We argue this methodology is more efficient than ordinary cointegration and error correction models. Empirically we find strong evidence of efficient spatial markets and conformity to the law of one price. Market liberalization reforms in the EU increased the comovement of domestic and world wheat prices; our post–Uruguay Round price transmission elasticity was 0.183.     

Brexit,Trade Agreements and CAP Reform

Although a number of reforms have significantly changed the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP ) over the past two decades, a defining characteristic of the policy is its prohibitively high import tariffs on a number of key commodities as tariff cuts have not formed part of CAP reform. These high tariffs, whilst protecting EU producers, complicate the EU 's attempts to negotiate Free Trade Area (FTA ) agreements around the world, and will likewise be problematic for agri‐food trade with a post‐Brexit UK , particularly over the politically sensitive border between the EU ‐27 and the UK on the island of Ireland. An open border could be more easily secured if the UK 's tariff barriers on CAP products matched those of the EU ‐27. This, however, implies either that the UK will have to abandon its plans to pursue ‘free‐trade’ policies with other countries around the world, or that the EU ‐27 needs to complete its reform of the CAP by unilaterally reducing its tariff barriers. It seems highly unlikely that the challenges posed by Brexit would prompt the EU to unilaterally reduce its excessively high CAP tariffs.     

An economic assessment of the Common Market Organization for bananas in the European Union

The main objective of this paper is to provide some estimates of how the world banana market has been affected by the Common Market Organization (CMO) for bananas established in the European Union (EU) on 1 July 1993, and modified in April 1994. We quantify the effects of the new EU regulation on world and EU prices, on the structure of EU imports from Latin American countries, African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries and EU regional suppliers, on the pattern of consumption in the various EU member states, and on consumers' and producers' welfare using a static partial equilibrium model of the world banana market. Simulation results suggest that the two key variables in determining the effects of the CMO are the size of the tariff quota on dollar and non-traditional ACP bananas and the capacity of ACP countries to exhaust their ACP contingent share.     

European Agriculture after Brexit: Does Anyone Benefit from the Divorce?

The UK exited the EU on 31 January 2020, with a transition period agreed as part of the Withdrawal Agreement. During this transition period the UK and the EU will decide on their future trading relationship. No matter what form this relationship takes, there will be disturbances to agri‐food markets. This study analyses four different scenarios with increasing barriers to trade, ranging from a very close relationship similar to the European Economic Area to a distant relationship in which the UK and EU trade on Most Favoured Nation terms, using the EU focused global agricultural sector model CAPRI. In the UK, food prices will increase in all scenarios, making consumers in the UK the biggest losers. Only in a free trade agreement scenario does the UK show an unambiguous positive net welfare gain in just the agri‐food sector. In the case of the European Economic Area scenario, which assumes continued access to the single market, the net welfare impact would depend on the size of the UK’s continued contribution to the EU. In the EU, declining food prices would benefit consumers but the sum of the loss in farmers’ incomes and the UK’s EU CAP contribution would be much greater than the consumer’s gain. These impacts in agricultural markets under different future trade arrangements will also be influenced by the UK’s agricultural policy changes in direct payments as well as by possible further UK trade liberalisation after the end of the transition period.     

The trade distorting effects of export refunds: The case of beef exports to Africa

The usual sale of European agricultural products to Africa using export refunds has been heavily discussed in recent decades. At the centre of the discussion are the consequences on the agricultural producers in Western and Southern Africa. There are two different points of view: On the one hand, the European Union's (EU) export policy reduces the prices on these markets and relieves high burdens on local producers; on the other hand are claims that refunds do not influence local prices significantly. Hence, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has no effect on markets of third countries, besides depressing world market prices. This paper focuses on the effects of EU's export subsidies for beef exports on its market share in several developing countries. Twenty-seven African countries were analysed using a fixed-effects model between 1988 and 2000. The results clearly show a highly significant positive impact of the export refund rate on the market and the import share. With its export policy, the EU raises its market position and edges out other competitors.     

International diffusion of gains from biotechnology and the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy

This paper analyses the impact of adopting or rejecting genetically modified (GM) crops in the European Union, taking into account the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). In this paper the productivity impact of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) differs across crops, taking factor biased technology change into account. The transfer of knowledge across countries is modelled as a process of endogenous knowledge spill-overs. Analysis with a multi-region applied general equilibrium model shows that the CAP protects farm income and production despite non-adoption of the more productive GM crops in the EU. The EU will forgo substantial benefits in terms of economic welfare if it bans GM imports.     

The CAP for Turkey? Potential Market Effects and Budgetary Implications

EU accession negotiations with Turkey are scheduled to start in October 2005. The period of accession negotiations will probably last for ten years or longer, but the effects of applying the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) to Turkey are currently a controversial discussion in the EU. Effects of Turkish accession on EU agricultural markets are likely to be small. The EU would gain additional export opportunities for cereals and animal products. On the other hand, Turkish agricultural exports to the EU are projected to increase for only a few fruit and vegetable products. EU budgetary outlays for the application of the CAP to Turkey could total between £3.5 and £6.3 billion in 2015 – depending on whether direct payments are phased in or not – and £5.4 billion in 2025. Most of these outlays would be for direct payments to agricultural producers and that may not be in Turkey's best interest. This is because direct payments tend to be capitalized in land prices and may thus inhibit the necessary process of improving the Turkish agricultural structure. Transfers under the second pillar of the CAP may hold more interest for Turkey, because they can be targeted at improving productivity and thereby income. Projected outlays for the CAP take a backseat to projected transfers to Turkey under the structural policy of the EU.     

EU‐wide Economic and Environmental Impacts of CAP Greening with High Spatial and Farm‐type Detail

In this paper we analyse the economic and environmental impacts of CAP greening introduced by the 2013 CAP reform using the CAPRI model. CAPRI captures the farm heterogeneity across the EU and it allows to depict the implementation of the greening measures in high detail while integrating the environmental effects and the market feedback of the simulated policy changes. The simulated results reveal that the economic impacts (land use, production, price and income) of CAP greening are rather small, although some farm types, crops (fallow land and pulses) and Member States may be affected more significantly. The CAP greening will lead simultaneously to a small increase in prices and a small decrease in production. Farm income slightly increases because the price effects offset the production decline. Similarly to economic effects, the environmental impacts (GHG emissions, N surplus, ammonia emissions, soil erosion, and biodiversity‐friendly farming practices) of CAP greening are small, although some regions may see greater effects than others. In general, the environmental effects at EU level are positive on a per hectare basis, but the increase in UAA can reverse the sign for total impacts. Overall, simulated GHG and ammonia emissions decrease in the EU, while the total N surplus, soil erosion and biodiversity‐friendly farming practices indicator slightly increase due to the CAP greening.     

CAP Reform in the Dairy Sector: Remove Export Subsidies and Retain Milk Quota

CAP Reform in the Dairy Sector: Remove Export Subsidies and Retain Milk Quota The reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy of June 2003 introduced major policy changes, In the dairy sector the aim is to decrease price distortions between the EU and world dairy markets through successive reductions in milk intervention prices. However, the milk quota system is still in place and successive increases in milk quotas are planned. The question is whether these dairy reforms are going in the right direction given the three main characteristics of the EU dairy sector. First the price inelasticity of both milk supply (due to quota) and domestic demand means that price distortion mainly affects the distribution of economic surplus between consumers and producers but does not generate significant net losses in economic welfare. Second, the ‘large country’ position of the EU on the world market means that the EU should remove all export subsidies, which will reduce EU exports and increase world prices. Third, the projected increase in EU aggregate demand for milk favours a reduction in all subsidies. The CAP is going in the right direction in the dairy sector. But to reduce price distortions all subsidies should be removed as soon as possible and the milk production quota should be retained. La réforme de la PAC laitiére: supprimer les subventions aux exportations et conserver les quotas La réforme de la PAC en juin 2003 est un changement majeur. En ce qui concerne le secteur laitier, l'idée consiste à diminuer les distorsions entre les prix européens et ceux du marché mondial par une série de réductions progressives du prix d'intervention. En même temps, le système des quotas reste en place et des accroissements progressifs sont envisageés pour les droits à produire. La question. est alors de savoir si une telle politique est bien orientée, compte tenu des trois caractéristiques principales du secteur laitier européen. En premier lieu, la faible élasticité-prix aussi bien de l'offre (à cause des quotas) que de la demande, implique que les distorsions, si elies affectent la répartition des bénéfices entre producteurs et consommateurs, ne génèrent pas de très grandes pertes sociales au niveau du bien-être global. Ensuite, l'importance de l'Union européenne sur les marchés mondiaux implique que l'UE doive réduire ses subventions à l'exportation, ce qui diminuera le volume des exportations et en fera remonter le prix, Enfin, l'accroissement prévisible de la demande globale européenne en produits laitiers devrait conduire G une réduction des subventions de toute sorte. La PAC est done sur la bonne voie en matière laitière. Mais pour réduire les distorsions, il faut le plus vite possible supprimer les subventions et conserver les quotas laitiers. Reform der GAP im Milchsektor: Abschaffung der Exportsubventionen und Beibehaltung der Milchquoten Die Reform der Gemeinsamen Agrarpolitik vom Juni 2003 führt zu erheblichen Politikänderungen. Im Milchsektor ist das Ziel, die Preisverzerrungen zwischen der EU und den Weltmärkten für Milchprodukte durch eine sukzessive Reduzierung der Milchinterventionspreise zu verringern. Das Milchquotensystem bleibt jedoch weiter bestehen und sukzessive Erhöhungen der Milchquoten sind geplant. Es ergibt sich die Frage, ob die Reform bei den vorhandenen drei Charakteristika im EU Milchsektor in die richtige Richtung geht. Erstens bedeuten das gegebene preisunelastische Angebot von Milch (wegen der Quotierung) und die Nachfrage im Inland, dass die Preisverzerrung sich vomehmlich auf die Verteilung der ökonomischen Rente zwischen Konsumenten und Produzenten auswirkt, nicht aber zu bedeutenden Wohlfahrtsverlusten führt. Zweitens fuhrt die Abschaffung aller Exporterstattungen für Milch und Milchprodukte dazu, dass die EU Exporte sinken und damit wegen der EU als relative großes Land die Weltmarktpreise für Milch steigen werden. Drittens begünstigt die vorausgesagte Zunahme in der aggregierten Milchnachfrage in der EU eine Reduzierung aller Subventionen. Die GAP entwickelt sich im Milchsektor in die richtige Richtung. Es sollten aber alle Subventionen so schnell wie möglich abgebaut und die Milchquote sollte aufrechterhalten werden, um Preisverzerrungen zu reduzieren.     

A MODEL OF THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY

Several efforts have been made since 1980 to estimate the costs and benefits of the European Community's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). This paper summarises the approach and method adopted in developing one such effort, which aims to provide results at country, commodity and interest group level both for the CAP as a whole, and for changes in it. Economic analysis of the effects of price changes in the CAP is carried out with the use of direct and crossprice elasticities of supply and demand for sixteen major commodities, using base levels of production, consumption, and gross trade flows in each member state, along with rest-of-world data. A number of CAP instruments, such as subsidies, levies, quotas and ‘green’ exchange rates, are built into the calculations and can be varied, along with support prices, to produce new situations in domestic markets and in world price levels. Both financial (budgetary) and welfare (economic surplus) effects of such exogenous price changes can be calculated. Certain policy changes, such as a move to ‘free’ markets, involve endogenous calculation of equilibrium prices. Trend projections subject to a priori constraints are used to produce results for years beyond the extent of data currently available. The types of model run commonly carried out are discussed, along with several strategic judgments that became necessary in carrying out the research. Finally, questions concerning the future development and use of the model are addressed.     

Potential impact of a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership on the global forest sector

The effects of a transatlantic trade agreement on the global forest sector were assessed with the Global Forest Products Model, conditional on previous macroeconomic impacts predicted with a general equilibrium model. Comprehensive tariff elimination per se had little effect on the forest sector. However, with deeper reforms and integration consumption would increase twice as much in percent in the US as in the EU. Net trade decreased in the US more than in the EU while it increased in Asia. Consumers and producers’ welfare increased by $7000 million in the EU and $14,000 million in the US, but decreased in some third countries, especially in Asia.     

Developments in the Doha Round and WTO dispute settlement: some implications for EU agricultural policy

Progress in the Doha Round is assessed against the changes tothe common agricultural policy (CAP) brought about by the Fischlerreforms of 2003–2004, and that proposed for sugar. Anelimination of export subsidies could place EU exports of processedfoods at a competitive disadvantage because of high sugar andmilk prices. Provided the single payment scheme falls withinthe green box, the likely new limits on domestic support shouldnot be problematic for the post-Fischler CAP. However, an ambitiousmarket access package could open up EU markets and bring pressurefor further reform. If there is no Doha agreement, existingprovisions will continue to apply, but without the protectionof the Peace Clause; and increased litigation is likely. FurtherCAP reform is to be expected.     

Re‐evaluating the Harbinson Proposal – Prospects for the EU25: A Note

In this study, we use the Harbinson Proposal and July Framework to compare a ‘likely’ Doha scenario with a realistic baseline. The novelty of this study is that we focus exclusively on the trade‐led welfare impacts in selected EU member states. The important features of this note are the: (i) usage of the latest Global Trade Analysis Project (version 6) data; (ii) focus on EU25 regions incorporating all major Common Agricultural Policy instruments and reforms; and (iii) inclusion of binding tariff overhangs into the Harbinson tariff reductions. Results show the damping effects of tariff‐binding overhangs on welfare outcomes. This and other factors which limit the gains to liberalisation mean that the EU25 only realises 10% of its long‐run welfare gain potential, as defined by complete liberalisation.     

Levelling the playing field for European Union agriculture: Does the Common Agricultural Policy impact homogeneously on farm productivity and efficiency?

Originally conceived as a post-war policy vehicle for ensuring agricultural self-sufficiency, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has evolved into a multifunctional instrument designed to satisfy a diverse portfolio of European Union (EU) policy objectives including nature protection. Notwithstanding, whilst the CAP has become more environmental and socially responsible, it is still expected to deliver an efficient farm production system capable of competing on world markets. The current paper combines a farm business panel dataset for 98 EU territories with a Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) approach, to assess the impact of four contemporary broad categories of CAP subsidy programs on efficiency and environmental sustainability. In accordance with the literature, this study more correctly defines inputs as “facilitating”, whilst following recent methodological developments, crop-subsidies are treated as an endogenous strategic variable in the production function. Comparing between two discrete time periods, further tests are conducted to examine the hypothesis of technical efficiency convergence across european territories. The results suggest that first pillar crop subsidies and pillar two environmental programs generate a disincentive effect on productivity, whilst in general, the CAP promotes technical efficiency convergence within Europe.     

The Impact of an EU–US Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement on Biofuel and Feedstock Markets

We assess the impact of a potential TTIP bilateral free trade agreement on the EU and US bio‐economies (feedstock, biofuels, by‐products, and related competing crops) and major trade partners in these markets. The analysis develops a multi‐market model that incorporates bilateral trade flows (US to EU, EU to US, and similarly with third countries) and is calibrated to the OECD‐FAO baseline for 2013–2022 to account for recent policy decisions. The major policy reforms from a TTIP involve tariff and TRQ liberalisation and their direct contractionary impact on US sugar supply, EU biofuel production, and indirect negative effect on US high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) production. EU sugar and isoglucose production expand along with US ethanol and biodiesel and oilseed crushing. EU sugar would flow to the US, US biofuels and vegetable oil to the EU. We further quantify non‐tariff measures (NTM) affecting these trade flows between the EU and the US. EU oilseed production contracts, and EU crushing expands with improving crushing margins following reduced NTM frictions. Our analysis reveals limited net welfare gains with most net benefits reaped by Brazil and not the two trading partners of the TTIP.     

Setting Climate Action as the Priority for the Common Agricultural Policy: A Simulation Experiment

We quantitatively assess the impacts of re-allocating budgetary resources within Pillar 1 of the EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) from direct income support to a direct greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction subsidy for EU farmers. The analysis is motivated by the discussion on the future CAP, with calls for both an increased ambition on climate action from the agricultural sector and for a more incentive-based delivery system of direct payments under strict budgetary restrictions. By conducting a simulation experiment with an agricultural partial equilibrium model (CAPRI), we are able to factor in farmers’ supply and technology-adjusting responses to the policy change and to estimate the potential uptake of the GHG-reduction subsidy in EU regions. We find that a budget-neutral re-allocation of financial resources towards subsidised emission savings can reduce EU agricultural non-CO₂ emissions by 21% by 2030, compared to a business-as-usual baseline. Two-thirds of the emission savings are due to changes in production levels and composition, implying that a significant part of the achieved GHG reduction is offset globally by emission leakage. At the aggregated level, the emission-saving subsidy and increased producer prices compensate farmers for the foregone direct income support, but differences in regional impacts indicate accelerated structural change and heterogeneous income effects in the farm population. We conclude that the assumed regional budget-neutrality condition introduces inefficiencies in the incentive system, and the full potential of the EU farming sector for GHG emissions reduction is not reached, leaving ample room for the design of more efficient agricultural policies for climate action.     

The U.S. Sugar Policy Reforms and World Sugar Trade

This article incorporates the U.S. sugar policy instruments in a spatial Nash equilibrium model of world sugar trade and simulates the consequences of the U.S. sugar policy reforms on sugar trade among major producing and consuming regions of the world. The results show that policy reforms which eliminate import barriers by the U.S. can lead to major changes in the directions and volumes of sugar trade. Specifically, U.S. sugar imports would increase but domestic production and consumer prices would decline. Several regions in the developing world would increase their shares of the world sugar export trade.     

Impacts of agricultural price support policy on price variability and welfare: Evidence from China's soybean market

China is a predominant soybean importer; thus, its domestic soybean policies have a large impact on world soybean market dynamics. We develop the first aggregate structural econometric model of China's soybean market and link it to the rest of the world (ROW), which allows us to analyze the impacts of China's soybean price support policy that ran from 2008 to 2013. We investigate the impacts of China's policy on the variability of their domestic and world soybean prices, and adopt a Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the effects on distributional and aggregate welfare. Our results indicate: (a) after China's soybean price support policy, price transmission elasticity decreases, China's domestic price variability decreases, and world price variability increases; (b) China's producer surplus increases, consumer surplus decreases and the net welfare change in their domestic market is negative; and (c) although soybean exporting countries in the ROW experience significant welfare gains, the world net welfare change is negative.     

The International Coffee Agreement: Economics of the Nonmember Market

The provisions of the 1983 International Coffee Agreement (ICA) and proposed reforms to eliminate exports to nonmember importers at discounted prices are analyzed. The discounted sales were a key issue that led to the breakdown of negotiations for a new ICA and the end of export quotas under the current agreement. A model of the world coffee market incorporating the policy response of exporting countries is used to analyze the welfare implications of the different alternatives. The model shows that the price discounts result from the structure of the current agreement (the existence of nonmember importing countries) and allocation of export quotas for the member market, which does not reflect export capacity. Welfare calculations based on the model show that several small exporters derive substantial benefits from nonmember market sales. These exporters will not be willing to comply with an arrangement to allocate quotas for the nonmember market unless they receive a large share of this market. However, the large exporters appear determined to retain their market share. The results of the model predict that, unless importers no longer insist on eliminating the price discounts, a new agreement is unlikely.