澳门发展路向:企业家型城市

澳门是我国南方的一小块领域土,自16世纪以来,它一直在葡萄牙管治之下,1999年澳门回归,成为我国继香港之后的第二个特别行政区。本文讨论了澳门的经济和城市发展特色,认为它是香港都经济区的一个组成部分,其回归后的发展应为“企业家型城市”,充分发挥“一国两制”和它的地理优势。     

人民币区域接受程度： 指数构建与影响因子计量 ——以东盟及中国香港为例

金融危机以来,改革现有的国际货币体系,逐步推进“去美元化”进程,已是国际社会共识。周边化及区域化是人民币国际化进程中的重要阶段,建立人民币区域接受程度监测指标体系,具有重要意义。本文基于对东盟及中国香港人民币使用情况的分析,提出人民币区域接受程度指数的构建框架并进行影响因子的计量分析,实证结果表明：(1)在政策推动及市场需求双重作用下,未来东盟人民币接受程度将持续提升,但短期内受经济政治影响会出现较大反复;(2)受政策推动、存款规模较小以及贬值预期影响,中国香港人民币贸易接受程度的提升快于金融接受程度,提高人民币存款占比有助于提升人民币接受程度;(3)中国香港经济状况对人民币接受程度的影响力要高于内地,反映出货币国际化是市场自发选择的过程;(4)由于货币替代影响双边货币政策效果,中国香港通胀水平、利率以及内地通胀水平会受中国香港人民币接受程度的反向影响。     

The Case for Adopting the Convertible Reserves System in Hong Kong

The East Asian currency crisis spread to Hong Kong in October 1997, touching off worldwide repercussions. Weaknesses were revealed in the operational mechanism of Hong Kong's linked exchange rate system (the link). This paper casts the link as a peculiar currency board system in the proper historical and comparative contexts. After examining the conflict between the classical currency board (which relies on the two "automatic" stabilizers of specie-flow and cash arbitrage) and modern financial developments, it is pointed out that Hong Kong should move forward to the convertible reserves system of Argentina, Estonia and Lithuania (the AEL model), and adopt its cashless/electronic arbitrage arrangement to defend the link. Moreover, it is necessary to balance the need for short-term stability and the consideration of long-term flexibility. Any measure that increases the ultimate exit cost from the link must be assessed carefully.     

粤港澳区域合作创新机制研究

粤港澳区域合作是区域经济一体化和经济全球化的必然要求,也是珠三角大都市圈经济转型的必然选择.如何实现粤港澳区域合作创新是研究粤港澳经济发展的重要课题.选择该题目进行研究,其目的就是希望通过对粤港澳区域合作的趋势和障碍分析,进一步探索粤港澳进行区域合作创新机制的设立问题.应从强化粤港澳合作的市场驱动机制,创新中央政府的引导职能、强化合作的整合体制,建立粤港澳政府合作创新的长效机制创、新合作组织模式,完善粤港澳合作运行机制、以生态环境领域合作为契机,深化粤港澳合作的创新机制四个方面来深化该区域合作创新机制.     

An Optimal Currency Basket to Minimize Output and Inflation Volatility: Theory and an Application to Hong Kong

In this paper we develop a theoretical model of an optimal currency basket for a small open economy. A currency basket for the home economy is defined as a chosen weighted average of a subset of foreign currencies, and an optimal currency basket is taken to be one that minimizes a given weighted average of the expected output volatility and expected inflation volatility. This theoretical model is then applied to Hong Kong, which has adopted a currency board system for close to 30 years. We estimate an optimal currency basket for Hong Kong and compare its performance with the existing currency board system as well as with currency baskets whose weights are given by export and import trade shares.     

香港联系汇率制度的现实启示及未来挑战

本文针对香港联系汇率制度的形成历史以及原因,总结出香港的联系汇率制度形成的偶然性申的必然性,分析香港联系汇率割度的优势和弊端,以及此项制度对于香港金融市场的重大意义。针对日新月异的国际资本市场,香港也面临着挑战,香港也必须与时俱进,加强和人民币之间的联系,进而形成合理的汇率机制。本文最后勾画了香港汇率制度未来的发展前景。     

中国大陆、香港和澳门地区的收入收敛性

香港和澳门在20世纪90年代末作为两个特别行政区回归中国。由于历史的原因,中国大陆的人均收入水平曾远远落后于香港和澳门地区。然而,在过去的30年里,由于中国大陆经济的快速发展以及香港、澳门和中国大陆的投资与人力资源的双向互动,三地经济出现了显著收敛现象。中国大陆的经济成功得益于香港、澳门地区与沿海各省市尤其是广东省在技术溢出、大规模的投资和贸易行为方面的一体化,而经济溢出、投资和贸易行为必定推动经济一体化和收入收敛行为的出现。本文旨在探讨中国大陆与香港、澳门地区的收敛趋势并研究三地收入收敛性的决定因素。本文使用参数和非参数方法定量分析了中国大陆各省市与香港、澳门地区在过去40多年间人均收入的收敛速度问题,结果表明,在经济改革之前,中国大陆、香港与澳门地区不存在人均收入的收敛行为,而在经济改革之后,却出现了显著的绝对和相对收敛。在经济改革期间,如果模型不考虑贸易和对外开放因素,这一收敛速度将不超过0.01,如果考虑贸易和对外开放因素,这一速度则超过0.02。     

Study on Coupling Coordination between Sci-Tech Innovation and High-Quality Economic Development in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

Sci-tech innovation is an important measure for the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area to achieve high-quality economic development. Theoretically, there is a coupling coordination relationship between sci-tech innovation and high-quality economic development, and coordinating the relationship between the two is beneficial to building the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area into an international innovation and technology hub and promoting high-quality economic development. At present, the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area has seen a year-on-year increase in both the level of sci-tech innovation and the level of high-quality economic development, with a sound development trend. Its coupling coordination degree between sci-tech innovation and high-quality economic development has steadily improved from a slightly uncoordinated stage to a primarily coordinated stage, but the overall degree of coordination is still not high, with some gaps from realizing the excellently coordinated stage. From the perspective of spatial distribution, the internal development of the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area is unbalanced, with obvious differences in development level and coupling coordination degree among cities. The convergence analysis shows that the differences in the coupling coordination degree among the cities in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area have stabilized after narrowing during the study period. However, the difference among the cities with higher coupling coordination degrees tends to widen in recent years. Therefore, necessary measures should be taken to promote the coordination between sci-tech innovation and high-quality economic development in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area.     

A NEW COMPARATIVE STUDY ON THE FREE‐FLOATING AND CURRENCY BOARD REGIMES IN HONG KONG

This study aims to compare the performance of free‐floating and currency board regimes for Hong Kong by examining historical data of the two on the output growth and inflation rate. Structural vector autoregression has been applied in the empirical analysis. Without making a strong assumption of unit variance in the residual matrix, this study applies a more natural approach proposed by Cecchetti and Rich to recover the structural parameters. The study has further investigated the recovery of the economy under a demand shock under different exchange rate regimes, in order to provide some evidence to answer why Hong Kong's recovery process after the Asian financial crisis is relatively longer than that in other economies with a managed floating exchange rate regime. New evidence in this study indicates that output recovers much faster in a flexible exchange rate regime than in a fixed exchange rate regime after an aggregate demand shock. Furthermore, this study has applied a more robust method in the counterfactual analysis when comparing the two regimes. New evidence in this study suggests that a free‐floating regime may generate much smaller output variance in Hong Kong and deliver higher output and price levels to Hong Kong.     

Exchange Rate Volatility and Macroeconomic Performance in Hong Kong

The paper presents evidence on whether Hong Kong’s currency board arrangement, in place since 1983, has affected the volatility of real macroeconomic variables. Simple evidence on the relative volatilities of relevant macroeconomic variables before and after 1983 is presented, before a more formal econometric framework is utilized to examine the linkages between the exchange rate and the real economy. It is found that the currency board period has been one of relative stability in Hong Kong, though it has also been a period where external factors have been relatively benign. Even after controlling for the external environment, it is found that the currency board period is one of low macroeconomic volatility.     

江西与广东,香港的经济合作研究

京九铁路南段（九江以南）使赣粤港三地成为一个紧密联系的经济地带。江西与广东、香港的经济互补性强，具备互惠合作的良好的基础。江西省利用自身优势，抓住当前机遇，采取适当措施，必将实现赣粤港经济融合与江西省的经济腾飞。     

On dollarization and currency boards: Error and deception

A diagnosis of the laws and balance sheets of the monetary authorities in Argentina, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Estonia, Hong Kong and Lithuania is presented. With the exception of Bosnia, all employ active monetary policies and engage in sterilization. Accordingly, they are not currency boards. The methods used to dismantle the Argentine system in 2001, prior to its eventual abandonment, are presented. An evaluation of the Hong Kong system (1997-1998) suggests that its so-called currency board was not a party to counter-speculation in the stock market. Evidence is presented to show how deception was employed by the US and the IMF during the Indonesian currency board debate (1998) as a means to engineer a political regime change.     

Cointegration analysis of quarterly tourism demand by Hong Kong and Singapore for Australia

Hong Kong and Singapore are two of the most important and fastest growing markets for tourists to Australia. The purpose of this paper is to investigate movements in the long-run demand for tourist travel by these two origin countries for Australia. Some of the leading macroeconomic variables examined to explain tourism demand are incomes in Hong Kong and Singapore, tourism prices in Australia, and transportation costs and exchange rates between the two countries and Australia. Seasonally unadjusted quarterly data are used for Hong Kong for the period 1975(1)–1996(4), and for 1980(4)–1996(4) for Singapore. Several proxy variables are used for the incomes of tourists from Hong Kong and Singapore to explain quarterly tourist arrivals to Australia. The augmented Dickey-Fuller test for unit roots is examined in the univariate framework, and Johansen's maximum likelihood procedure is used to test for cointegration and to estimate the number of cointegrating vectors. Error correction models are estimated to explain quarterly tourism demand by Hong Kong and Singapore for Australia.     

The Working of the Currency Board: The Experience of Hong Kong 1935–1997

Hong Kong had twice adopted, in its modern monetary history, the currency board system: the first in November 1935, and the second in October 1983. This article provides an analysis of the modus operandi of Hong Kong's version of currency board, as well as an appraisal of its advantages and disadvantages.     

An Intertemporal Currency Board

The paper shows that the traditional wisdom of raising interest rates to defend a currency enriches rather than punishes the speculators. Furthermore, using high interest rates as a currency defense tool often produces the opposite effect in times of crisis. A new approach is proposed of using Hong Kong dollar "put" options as an explicit commitment by the government. The put option itself acts like an intertemporal currency board in keeping the linked exchange rate over time. This costly signaling produces a separating equilibrium that distinguishes the strength of the Hong Kong dollar from the other Asian currencies that were under pressure in 1997.     

Foreign direct investment in R&D and domestic entrepreneurship in China’s manufacturing industries

This paper argues that internationalization of innovation and the related spillovers can also affect the likelihood of firm entry and exit into an industry. By making use of firm-level panel data from China over the period 2005 to 2007, this paper examines the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) in research and development (R&D) and the related linkages on entry and exit likelihoods of domestic firms in (i) transport equipment and (ii) electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industries. In order to evaluate the region-of-origin effect, this paper also separately examines the impact of FDI in R&D originating from (i) all countries except Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan and (ii) Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan. Furthermore, the impact of FDI in R&D on entry and exit of Chinese firms in the two industries is examined by splitting the data into large and small firms within the two industries. The results of the pooled probit regression reveal that FDI in R&D and the related spillovers can have a significant impact on the likelihood of entry and exit of domestic firms in transport equipment and electric machinery and equipment industries. The empirical analysis also suggests that the impact of changes in FDI in R&D and the related spillovers varies across firm size.     

Exchange rates change,asset-denominated currency difference and stock price fluctuation

This paper examines differences in the connectedness between exchange rates and stock prices for companies with different asset currencies on the Hong Kong stock market, and it seeks to explain those differences by proposing a hypothesis on asset-denominated currency difference. Under a framework of investor heterogeneity, we establish a dynamic, discrete theoretical model to analyse the connectedness between exchange rates, the stocks of local Hong Kong companies, the stocks of companies from the mainland and foreign exchange interventions. Using monthly data from January 2000 to August 2018, we adopt the time-varying parameter vector auto-regression (TVP-VAR) model to empirically study the dynamic relationships between exchange rates and the prices of both Hong Kong-based and mainland-based stocks. The results show significant differences in the ways that exchange rates and prices for the two types of stocks are linked. The exchange rates are positively correlated with mainland stocks and negatively correlated with Hong Kong stocks. Moreover, foreign exchange intervention is found to be an effective means for stabilising exchange rates, although such intervention tends to increase stock volatility.

Abbreviations: TVP-VAR - time-varying parameter vector auto-regression model; MCMC - Monte Carlo-Markov Chain method.     

Consumption externalities and upward-sloping demand

The law of demand states that individual demand curves are negatively sloped. To date, the Giffen Paradox represents the only analytically valid exception to the law under standard assumptions. This article shows that if consumption externalities exist, it is possible for the individual's demand curve to slope upward. In particular, the condition under which demand becomes upward-sloping can be delineated in terms of measures of elasticity of demand. Research grants (Grant #2056/99H and Grant #FRG99-00/II-12) from the Research Grant Council of Hong Kong and the Hong Kong Baptist University are gratefully acknowledged.     

AN ANALYSIS OF HONG KONG EXPORT PERFORMANCE

Abstract.  The study models the Hong Kong domestic exports and re-exports, compares the performance of exports to the rest of the world, the USA and Japan, and uses destination-and-export-type specific unit value indexes to construct real exchange rates. In general, Hong Kong exports display mean-reverting dynamics, are positively influenced by foreign income and are adversely affected by high value of its currency. The lagged export variable, foreign income, and real exchange rate provide most of the explanatory power. Other variables explain marginally the variability of Hong Kong exports.     

THE SUITABILITY OF A GREATER CHINA CURRENCY UNION

Abstract. The study assesses the level of integration among the three Greater China economies (China, Hong Kong and Taiwan) and examines the suitability of a Greater China currency union. The three economies already have extensive trade and investment linkages. Our analyses show that they share common long‐run and short‐run cyclical variations. We also estimate the output costs of relinquishing policy autonomy to form a currency union. The estimated output losses, which depend on, e.g., the method used to generate shock estimates, seem to be moderate and are likely to be less than the efficient gains derived from a currency union.