农民工城镇非正规就业的经济学分析

非正规就业是农村剩余劳动力转移到城镇后的主要就业形式,然而,第一代和第二代农民工选择非正规就业的原因却是不同的。基于农民工和政府两个微观经济主体视角,通过成本收益分析得出结论,非正规就业是农民工和政府共同选择的现实结果。     

A cost-benefit analysis of the random assignment UK Employment Retention and Advancement Demonstration

This article presents a cost-benefit analysis of Britain’s Employment Retention and Advancement (ERA) demonstration, which was evaluated through the first large-scale randomized control trial in the UK. ERA used a combination of job coaching and financial incentives in attempting to help long-term unemployed men and low-income lone parents sustain employment and progress in work once they were employed. Using both administrative and survey data, ERA’s effects on benefits and costs were estimated through impact analyses, which exploited the experimental design. The findings indicated that ERA was cost beneficial for long-term unemployed adult men, but not for lone parents. The key findings appear robust to sensitivity tests. Uncertainty, as implied by the SEs of the estimated impacts, was addressed through a Monte Carlo analysis, an approach seldom previously used in cost-benefit analyses of social programs.     

The shadow price of labour in export processing zones. A discussion of the social value of employing women in export processing in Mexico and China

Researchers have recently begun to address methods of doing social cost-benefit analyses of export processing zones. This paper examines the issue of the appropriate shadow price of labour to apply in making a social evaluation of a zone. Conditions in Mexico and China are contrasted to illustrate the problem in current methods, which would lower the social benefits of the maquiladoras in Mexico simply because they have hired women. The paper argues that the absolute level of employment in both countries is an accurate measure of a key benefit of the zones, and that the appropriate shadow price of the labour involved is at or below the market wage regardless of whether the worker is male or female.     

Intergenerational transfers and the social discount rate

This paper investigates the relationship between intergenerational asset transfers and the choice of the discount rate for use in cost-benefit analysis in a model of a competitive overlapping generations economy constrained by a socially managed exhaustible resource. Provided that there are no distortions in capital markets and that all agents hold perfect foresight, cost-benefit techniques will result in a Pareto efficient resource allocation if the discount rate is set equal to the market rate of interest. But since the path of the interest rate depends on the level of intergenerational transfers, cost-benefit techniques do not ensure a socially desirable distribution of welfare between generations; a social optimum will result only if intergenerational transfers are properly chosen and enforced. Decentralized private altruism may result in intergenerational transfers that both present and future individuals would agree are too small if members of the present generation attach positive weight to the general welfare of future generations, not simply their personal descendants. In a world where intergenerational transfers are non-optimal, second-best policy-making may imply a constrained optimum that is inefficient. Together, these findings suggest that cost-benefit analysis is at best a partial criterion to policy formulation that should be used only in conjunction with ethical principles that define the proper distribution of welfare between present and future generations.     

Rural-to-urban migration and the shadow wage in LDCs

"This paper discusses the amount of rural-to-urban migration which will be forthcoming when a new urban job is created for which an institutionally fixed wage above the market-clearing level is offered. A simple formula is proposed to estimate migration response. It can be used to calculate the shadow wage in cost-benefit analysis (CBA) in less developed countries (LDCs)."     

Labor resources and the current economic development of the USSR

The key task in creating balanced employment in the Soviet Union at the present time involves reducing the number of jobs to a level that corresponds to the actual potential for filling them. Such a step will serve as the basis for a more systematic organization of all aspects of the socialist expanded reproduction of labor power and of general social and economic progress. In the future, however, the mass release of workers from material production as a result of the scientific-technological revolution may create a manpower surplus. The labor shortage should be eliminated by the year 2000, and the working age population will have expanded, requiring expanded employment opportunities. The socialist system of employment must guarantee the systematic employment of the able-bodied population at any qualitative level of social production. The experience of other European socialist countries suggests several guidelines for employment policy. Bringing payroll costs closer to the actual cost of reproduction of labor power can be an important factor in the saving and release of workers in conjunction with the technical and organizational improvement of production. A special system must be formed in advance for the retraining, material support, and redistribution of released workers. Finally, cadres must by psychologically prepared for a much higher level of labor mobility.     

The Relationship Between Environmentally Sustainable Income, Employment and Wages in Australia

The environment is an asset that provides essential services. Like any other asset, its services will diminish as it depreciates. The environmentally sustainable income of a nation depends on a sustained flow of these services, and can be estimated by including the environment in a macroeconomic framework, with a goal to achieve both full employment and sustainability. The relationship of national income to employment is estimated at full employment, actual employment and the employment level that is necessary to maintain sustainable income, for the Australian economy. There proved to be a widening gap between actual income and environmentally sustainable income, and between actual income and income to guarentee full employment. Wage reduction and improvement of technology are analysed as possible ways to meet the goal of an environmentally sustainable income.     

经济转型、结构性约束与就业增长--基于湖北省产业结构调整和就业增长的实证分析

湖北经济在实现高速增长的同时,也出现了就业弹性系数下降和就业矛盾突出的问题.本文的分析表明,湖北的就业增长呈现出明显的结构性约束.解决日益突出的就业问题,应遵从工业化发展的一般规律,调整优化产业结构,带动就业结构的转换.通过加快农业剩余劳动力转移、加快城市化进程、提高居民收入和消费水平以及调整投资政策等措施,逐步矫正偏离度过大的就业结构,实现经济与就业增长的均衡发展,提高全社会的整体就业福利水平.     

Capital Constraints and Employmen

Abstract
This article considers whether capital is a significant constraint on employment in Australia. We calculate the level of capital-constrained employment for seven sectors of the Australian economy. The calculations suggest that the manufacturing; transport, storage and communication; and recreation, personal and other services sectors have sufficient capital installed to increase employment. In two other sectors, mining and wholesale and retail trade, the potential for increases in employment through increased capital utilisation may be constrained by surplus labour (as of June 1993). While some sectors are capital constrained at the moment, we find that the investment requirements to increase employment in these sectors are not onerous. We also project investment requirements in each of the sectors for employment growth over the next five years. These projections suggest that a jump in investment followed by relatively modest growth is required to sustain growth in employment.     

Labour migration as a way to escape from employment vulnerability? Evidence from the European Union

Free Movement of people is a fundamental principle of the European Union (EU). In a context of strong divergence in employment and working conditions among EU member states, migration can be seen as a way to increase employment opportunities but also to escape from poor working conditions at home. In this article, we focus on the possible influence of employment vulnerability by comparing its individual level among migrants and native workers in EU countries. We implement propensity score matching methods using data from the European Social Survey (2008) and indexes of employment vulnerability proposed by Bazillier et al. (2014). Overall, we show that migrants face the same level of employment vulnerability than natives, all other things being equal. But there are strong differences by skill-level. Low-skilled migrants have a lower level of vulnerability mainly because of a lower level of employer vulnerability while high-skilled migrants face a higher level of vulnerability, because of a higher level of job vulnerability.     

企业创新、市场化进程与区域就业水平

当前我国经济进入“换挡调整、转型升级”的新阶段,如何通过企业创新激发市场活力,提高区域就业水平,是“新常态”时期必须攻克的新难关。系统探究了工业企业创新对区域就业水平的影响,揭示了市场化进程的调节作用。研究发现：微观企业创新显著促进了区域就业水平提高,并且,随着市场化水平的提升,企业创新对区域就业的促进作用会显著增强。进一步考察企业性质发现,企业规模和产权属性对企业创新和区域就业水平具有显著调节作用：相较于大型企业和国有企业,中小型企业和非国有企业创新对就业水平的促进作用更强,而市场化进程对不同性质企业创新投资与区域就业水平的关系具有显著的差异性影响。最后,从政府完善市场化环境、激发企业创新投资动力、提升就业水平与稳定社会秩序等角度提出了政策建议。     

EXPORT-LINKED EMPLOYMENT IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

This paper examines relevant data sources and develops a methodology based on available data in order to estimate the level of employment for a region that is linked to exports of goods and services. The methodology allows for the estimation of direct and indirect export-related employment at the 2-digit SIC industry level. In addition, the paper describes how the direction of regional trade can be estimated, and how regional employment linked to exports to major trading partners can be calculated. This methodology is then applied using data from the Southern California region. Tables with estimates of total regional export-linked employment (by industry) and the regional employment associated with exports to each of the region's top 10 export trading partners are included. The usefulness of this type of database with regard to economic policy is discussed, as well as regional economic implications of the current economic crisis in Asia. ( JEL F16, R15, R58, R23)     

论当前中国的就业结构及其调整

就业结构是反映社会经济发展水平的重要标志,它反映国民经济的总体发展水平以及社会劳动力资源投入方向的总体状况,在国民经济全局运行和就业活动中具有极为重要的意义.本文首先从就业的产业结构、城乡结构、行业结构等方面分析了当前中国就业结构的现状,发现中国就业结构变化基本上与配第一克拉克定理相符,但就业结构与产业结构的变动幅度并不是完全一致,存在显著的不均衡性.由此从经济水平、投资结构、技术水平、对外贸易等四个角度分析了中国就业结构的影响因素,结果表明产业结构失衡与城乡就业结构失衡是中国就业结构存在的两个重要问题.文章最后从产业结构调整和城乡结构调整两个方面分析了中国就业结构调整的路径.     

Regional and sectoral dynamics of the Dutch staffing labor cycle

This study analyzes the dynamic characteristics of staffing employment across different business sectors and across different geographical regions in The Netherlands. We analyze a micro data set of the market leader of the Dutch staffing employment market, i.e. Randstad. We apply the dynamic factor model to extract common information out of a large data set and to isolate business cycle frequencies with the aim of forecasting staffing and total employment. We identify regions and sectors whose cyclical developments lead the staffing labor cycle at the country level. The dynamic factor model exploits these leading characteristics at the disaggregate level to forecast the country aggregate. Finally, both dynamic and static factors turn out to be predictive summary statistics of the micro data set when employed to forecast total employment at the country level.     

FDI流入对中国内资企业就业和工资水平影响的计量分析

利用中国2001~2003年经济普查数据,从企业层面就FDI流入对内资企业的就业和工资水平的影响进行实证分析表明:FDI流入对内资企业工资水平的正面效应是非常明显的,但有别于以前结论的是,企业层面FDI流入对就业水平的促进作用并不明显。原因在于外资的进入可能会对内资企业产生挤出效应,从而抵消通过关联效应带来的就业增加。所有制、创新能力和出口倾向也是影响FDI流入对内资企业就业和工资水平产生效应的重要因素。     

The optimality and overuse of labour in Estonian manufacturing enterprises*

Transition economies need labour market flexibility for successful restructuring and reallocation of the labour force, and for coping with the requirements of the European Monetary Union. In this paper we apply a novel approach to the issue of labour market flexibility in transition countries by studying the optimality and efficiency of labour usage in Estonian manufacturing enterprises. We employ a dynamic model in which both the long‐run optimal level of employment and the speed at which actual employment is adjusted to the optimal are modelled as functions of several variables. Firm‐level panel data of 1995–99 were used. The results showed that in the long run, employment responds most strongly to wages, followed by value added and capital stock. The speed of adjustment, labour use optimality and efficiency all show much greater variations over firms than over time. In the course of time, both labour‐saving technical change and an increase in the efficiency of labour usage occur. On average, there is shortage of labour compared to firms’ own optimal level, along with overuse of labour compared to best‐practice technology. Capital seems to be a binding constraint on the development of employment in the Estonian labour market.     

The relative importance of demand and supply shocks some international evidence

In this paper the contribution of demand and supply shocks of the fluctuation of output and employment is analyzed using quarterly data for four countries (USA, UK, FRG and Switzerland) covering the period 1966 to 1988 in a long run restricted VAR framework for employment, output, the interest rate and inflation. For the USA output and employment fluctuations seem to be dominated by supply shocks in theshort and long run, whereas interest and price level variations are dominated by demand shocks. The result obtained with German and Swiss data are, however, different with two respects: The contribution of demand shocks to output and employment fluctuations are substantial up to a time horizon of eight quarters and price level variations, are at least in the short run, dominated by supply disturbances. Finally, the analysis of the UK data shows the US pattern of results for employment and the price level, but demand shocks are important for output up to four quarters and interest rate movements are dominated by supply shocks.     

最低工资标准提升的就业效应——一个基于自然实验的经验研究

本文以最低工资标准提升作为自然实验,应用回归调整的差中差方法分析了最低工资标准提升对青年和中年低技能劳动力就业的影响。研究结果表明,最低工资标准提升对低技能群体中的男性和青年女性的就业没有产生显著影响;但对低技能群体中的中年女性就业却产生显著的消极影响,且最低工资标准提升幅度越大,对就业的消极影响越大。因此,政府适当的提升最低工资标准将有助于低技能劳动力整体工资水平的增长。     

The Dynamics of Inflation and Employment in the Full-Employment Zone: A Theoretical Analysis*

The paper is concerned with an economy in which some sectors reach full employment before others as demand expands. The position of short-run equilibrium of employment and excess demand is determined by the intersection of the aggregate demand schedule and the short-run output function, which shows the level of output induced by different levels of aggregate demand. The dynamics of the short-run equilibrium position are explored. It is shown that equilibrating forces due to relative price changes must predominate over disequilibrating forces due to the redistribution of income, in the absence of exogenous shocks and induced cost inflation. The latter is shown to be subject to a multiplier effect. The paper ends by drawing the policy implications of the analysis. It refutes the acceleration thesis by showing that the level of the real wage does not tend to change under excess demand and argues that if the economy is taken into the full employment zone forces will be set to work which tend to remove the bottlenecks.     

正视农村剩余劳动力转移的挑战

中国在10年左右的周期内农村剩余劳动力转出的总规模需要达到1．5亿到两亿人。城乡劳动力对就业岗位的竞争正在趋于激化。大中型城市将是新增就业岗位的主要来源。就业岗位正在成为国际竞争中最稀缺的资源。就业优先应当成为最重要的战略取向。劳动力市场发育要优先于其他要素的市场发育,就业岗位增加要优先于社会收入水平提高。就业政策的重点是要防止供求不平衡导致交易价格被压低到供给成本之下,同时保证有限的就业机会优先分配给最优秀、最有效率的群体。