Statistical classification models applied to common stock analysis

The application of statistical classification techniques to various aspects of equity financing and returns performance has been an attractive and fairly prolific area of research in the last 10–15 yrs. The various aspects of equity analysis relevant to classification techniques are more diverse than fixed income analysis and, until recently, presented more interesting empirical as well as theoretical challenges.The purpose of this paper is to review and comment upon numerous classification studies related to several aspects of common stock analysis, and, in so doing, to provide a clear picture of the variety of application areas amenable to statistical classification techniques. These areas include (1) common stock investment categories; (2) price-earnings and return-risk equity classification; (3) information content and return performance; and (4) capital structure questions.     

Experience seeking: A subjectivist perspective of consumption

The present research examines consumer behavior from a subjectivist perspective. In a phenomenological sense consumption consists of the generation of internal thoughts and|or sensations, which constitute the content of experience. The sociopsychological characteristics of consumers who primarily seek cognitive stimulation (cognition seekers), sensory stimulation (sensation seekers), novel stimulation (noveltry seekers), or are seekers of all three forms of experience (experience seekers) are delineated. Preliminary causal rationales for each type of consumption are put forward based on these findings.     

Stability of mutual fund systematic risk statistics

Empirical data for 85 mutual funds are used to test the intertemporal stability of their systematic risk statistics. Reasons why the portfolios may be nonstationary are suggested. A random coefficient model developed by Theil [37] is employed to test for the stability of each fund's beta. The data suggest that some funds do exhibit a beta that is best described as being a random coefficient. However, the percentage of funds exhibiting this characteristic was not statistically different from the percentage of randomly created portfolios that exhibited a random beta coefficient. The findings of this study support the statistical models employed in two other recent studies [18,21] to test for the stability of beta. Yet, for mutual funds that do exhibit a random beta coefficient, the partitioning of the total risk of the portfolio return into systematic and unsystematic risk is no longer valid for explaining the total risk.     

Price elasticity and bid-ask price spreads in the treasury bond market

Typical analyses of transactions costs in the bond markets explain these costs in terms of yield, term to maturity, coupons, and issue size. However, these analyses do not recognize the price elasticity of bonds to interest rate movements, which provides better measures of market risk and bid-ask price spreads. Elasticity or duration and issue size together display stronger associations with bid-ask price spreads than do the traditional variables. The association is also less subject to multicollinearity of the independent variables. Finally, stepwise regressions show that coupon and yield data add no information about bid-ask price spreads not already impounded in the duration statistic. This casts doubt on the nonduration arguments often used to support these variables as separately meaningful in transactions cost analyses.     

Criteria used by venture capitalists to evaluate new venture proposals

A questionnaire was administered to one hundred venture capitalists to determine the most important criteria that they use to decide on funding new ventures. Perhaps the most important finding from the study is direct confirmation of the frequently iterated position taken by the venture capital community that above all it is the quality of the entrepreneur that ultimately determines the funding decision. Five of the top ten most important criteria had to do with the entrepreneur's experience or personality. There is no question that irrespective of the horse (product), horse race (market), or odds (financial criteria), it is the jockey (entrepreneur) who fundamentally determines whether the venture capitalist will place a bet at all.The question is if this is the case, then why is so much emphasis placed on the business plan? In a business plan there is generally little to indicate the characteristics of the entrepreneur—it is generally devoted to a detailed discussion of the product/service, the market, and the competition. To us, the implications are obvious—such content is necessary, but not sufficient. The business plan should also show as clearly as possible that the “jockey is fit to ride” —namely, indicate by whatever feasible and credible means possible that the entrepreneur has staying power, has a track record, can react to risk well, and has familiarity with the target market. Failing this, he or she needs to be able to pull together a team that has such characteristics and show that he or she is capable of leading that team.Factor analysis of the results indicate that venture capitalists appear to assess ventures systematically in terms of six categories of risk to be managed. These are: risk of losing the entire investment: risk of being unable to bail out if necessary; risk of failure to implement the venture idea; competitive risk; risk of management failure; and risk of leadership failure.Finally, three clusters of venture capitalists were identified: those who carefully assess the competitive and implementation risks: those who seek easy bail out; and those who deliberately keep as many options open as possible.     

Parameter nonstationarity in retail choice models

The question of spatial nonstationarity in retail choice models generally has been ignored in the literature. This paper discusses why such nonstationarity might arise and presents an empirical test of nonstationarity in grocery choice data collected from a midwestern city. Based on these findings a nonstationarity retail choice model is proposed. The nonstationary model predicts data from a hold-out sample better than the stationary model.     

Automatic adjustment clauses and allocative efficiency in public utilities

This paper presents a formal analysis of the efficiency effects of automatic adjustment clauses (AACs) is regulated industries. Using a two-input model of ex ante/ex post input choice and a general putty-clay technology, we analyze the relative extent of allocative distortions due to each of three alternative regulatory policies—periodic rate review with and without an AAC, and an AAC without any rate review—for the case of a regulated firm that chooses an ex post technology to maximize the present value of future profits.Our results indicate that the economic rationale for using AACs in industries already subject to intermittent rate review is not unambiguous, even in the face of severe cost inflation, and is particularly sensitive to the magnitude of the price elasticity of demand for output and the rate and direction of input price changes. We are forced to conclude that the use of AACs in regulated industries such as electric power, while originally justified on the basis of financial viability, may well carry significant economic costs in the form of allocative inefficiency that may outweigh the benefits.     

Variations in municipal bond default risk premia by term-to-maturity

A recent study by McInish of the influence of term-to-maturity on municipal bond default risk premia concluded that default risk premia were not invariant with respect to maturity. That study, as well as an earlier one by Robinson, failed to consider the effects of issuer credit quality. Using a large cross-sectional sample of general obligation bonds sold between 1977 and 1980, the influence of issuer credit quality on the relationship between term-to-maturity and default risk premia is investigated. The results indicate that default risk premia were an increasing function of maturity, and that this effect was larger for lower rated bonds.     

Note,advance refunding and municipal bond market efficiency

This study uses the public announcement of an advance refunding to examine the informational efficiency of the secondary market for municipal bonds. The data show that bond yields respond quickly and in the direction predicted. The text discusses methodological considerations and the data sources used in the tests. The results of the study indicate that even for infrequently traded bonds, yields can be expected to reflect fully changes in default risk.     

Some factors determining municipal revenue bond interest costs

This paper tests for variations in risk premiums on municipal revenue bonds that are related to the geographic location of the issuer, the issue's second rating, and secondary collateral provisions. The empirical findings indicate that investors required risk premiums that depended on local economic conditions. Issuer borrowing costs were also shown to be related to factors that cause or reinforce segmentation of the tax-exempt bond market.     

The medical expense deduction and income levels: Progressive or regressive?

The medical expense deduction (MED) allows taxpayers to deduct from taxable income a proportion of their out-of-pocket medical insurance and health care expenses. Because the rate of subsidy is equal to the marginal tax rate previous studies have found MED to be a regressive tax mechanism biased toward benefiting higher-income taxpayers. The authors demonstrate, using GINI coefficients, that MED makes the tax structure more progressive than it would otherwise be and increases equality of after-tax incomes.     

Culture and organizational control

The influence of socio-cultural processes on organizational control is explored. The concepts of external and internal control are developed and related to several key dimensions of socio-cultural analysis which vary cross-culturally. Ethnographic evidence is presented to illustrate these different relationships.     

In the eye of the storm: Isaac Seligman and the panic of 1873

This paper focuses on the activities of the Seligman investment banking firm during an intense six-week period following the outbreak of the panic of 1873 in New York City. Because of their conservative business strategies, the partners did not experience any genuinely serious financial stress. The firm's ability to facilitate monetary transatlantic transfers helped to ease credit conditions in the New York and London financial sectors. The text also cites evidence arguing that the US economy experienced a two-year recession rather than a major depression in the 1870s.     

A note on the association between systematic risk and common stock and bond rating classifications

Relative risk classifications for both common stock and bonds are provided by several financial services, based upon their analysis of the financial and operating data of the issuer. Systematic risk, on the other hand, is a quantitative measure of relative risk based upon market-generated data. Using several multivariable statistical techniques and a sample of 443 listed companies, this note provides empirical evidence of the association between 1) systematic risk and common stock rankings, 2) systematic risk and bond ratings, 3) two popular common stock ranking classification systems, and 4) common stock rankings and bond ratings.     

The rise and fall of single-letter ticker symbols

A single-letter stock ticker symbol is a limited resource – only 26 possibilities are available in a stock universe of over 475,000 possible one-, two-, three- or four-letter ticker symbols. These symbols were first allocated based on trading volume therefore some of the most important companies at the time were initially placed into this group. This paper examines the history of this group of stocks and documents a decline in the importance of these firms due to a natural turnover in commercial leadership and no established mechanism to remove the single-letter designation from firms that lost their prominence.     

Competition to provide liquidity on the New York Stock Exchange

In order to be successful in attracting trading volume and generate revenue from trading fees, exchanges must allow potential traders to transact quickly at a known price. This is known as providing liquidity. On the New York Stock Exchange, liquidity comes from two sources: traders conducting business on the floor of the exchange and those who electronically send orders to the exchange from off-floor locations. On-floor traders have traditionally been alleged to have advantages over off-floor traders. If that is the case, then this might discourage off-floor traders from providing liquidity and reduce the efficiency of security markets. We find that on-floor traders do seem to enjoy some advantages in providing liquidity, although the differences are not great. This suggests that the New York Stock Exchange is warranted in several of its recent initiatives designed to level the playing field between on- and off-floor traders.     

Concept testing

This paper is a review of concept testing based on the published literature and a series of personal interviews with leading practitioners. While there is considerable agreement on the usefulness of concept testing, practitioners disagree on the best way to perform them. In addition to highlighting these disagreements, the paper covers general suggestions for improving concept testing.     

Exponents of multiattribute models

The effect of different exponents on the predictive ability of multiattribute models is examined. Survey data on 1202 individuals concerning their preferences for television shows is analyzed. The results indicate that the optimal power is not 1, and that consequently it may be somewhat more advantageous to improve on an already strong attribute than on relatively weak ones.     

Impact of internal and external environmental stability on the existence of determinant buying rules

The environment of the buying center is conceptualized as having two components. One is external to the buying center but internal organization. The other is external to both the buying center and the organization. The stability of these environments explains a significant amount of variation in the existence of organizational rules that determine the outcomes of organizational buying decisions. A comparison of global and attribute- specific measures of environmental stability indicates the environmental attributes that underlie respondents' global judgements about stability.