基于PEST的内蒙古无水港选址评价及对策研究

采用PEST的方法分析内蒙古发展无水港的宏观环境;运用层次分析法(AHP)和模糊综合评价法(Multi-LevelFuzzy)相结合对内蒙古建设无水港的选址问题进行了综合评价,并以鄂尔多斯为例进行了验证,针对内蒙古建设无水港过程中存在的问题提出了对策。研究表明,内蒙古发展无水港具有良好的外部环境,选择合适的地区建设无水港,可为内蒙古经济发展和基础设施的建设提供支持。     

Transferia: solving local pain or bringing global gain?

ABSTRACT

The sustainability of container transferia, a specific type of intermodal terminals located in the vicinity of ports, is analysed in an external cost evaluation. This concept enables transporting large amounts of containers from a port to a transferium, outside the most congested area, by high-frequency barge or rail transport. From this point onwards, the transport is executed by truck or intermodal. The paper presents a case study of maritime-based container transport in Belgium. A geographic information systems-based model compares transport alternatives, regarding their societal impact. The findings suggest that when trucks perform the hinterland transport to transferia instead of direct truck transport to the port, the production of external costs decreases in the port area, but remains stable in the hinterland. However, when intermodal chains can replace these truck services to the transferia, external costs remain limited in the port area, but also decrease in the hinterland in most cases.     

新经济形势下的中国集装箱海铁联运需求分析

集装箱海铁联运具有运量大、运距长等特点,是国外大型集装箱港重要的集疏运方式,占所有集疏运方式的20%-40%。2010年世界十大集装箱港口中国内地已经有六个,但和集装箱强国不相称的是中国集装箱海铁联运只占港口集疏运量的1.5%左右,和发达国家港口相去甚远。基于我国新经济形势,分析集装箱海铁联运未来的需求情况,为进一步研究海铁联运的发展提供借鉴。     

Does size matter for port coopetition strategy? Concept,motivation and implication

Coopetition is one of the emerging strategies for ports to react towards the rapidly changing market environment. Having this strategy in action, ports will simultaneously compete and cooperate to achieve commonly interesting goals among players involved. Several ports in the Hamburg–Le Havre range have already decided to use such coopetitive strategies. The literature, however, shows that there exist a number of case-specific motivations for having employed this strategy. The aim of this paper is to investigate the motivations for the ports of Flanders (Antwerp, Zeebrugge, Ghent and Ostend) to choose coopetition. These four Flemish ports recently agreed to collaborate after several years of negotiations. It was known that the large port of Antwerp was more reluctant to collaborate with the smaller ports: Zeebrugge, Ghent and Ostend. This fact does naturally lead us to consider whether the size of port is a factor having an impact on the coopetitive strategy. The current paper attempts to examine the possible impact of size difference on the motivations for ports to opt for coopetition, within a framework of coopetition motivations based on a literature review. From a qualitative analysis on the matter, the paper concludes that size is not an important factor for the motivations to establish coopetition since ports are mainly aimed at achieving a win–win situation. Other factors, such as similarities in the services offered and competition level, look more influential. Nevertheless, the size difference among the ports seems to have an impact on the choice of the type of coopetition and on the willingness of the ports to adopt this strategy. Finally, the paper indicates that it is beneficial for all the ports to investigate the use of coopetition as a way of expanding the network of logistics services.     

Production location and random input price

The purpose of this paper is to develop systematically the theory of plant location for a competitive firm facing random input price. It will be shown that the impact of input price uncertainty on the firm's optimum location depend crucially upon (i) the firm's attitude toward risk, (ii) the characteristics of the production function, (iii) the structure of transport costs on inputs and output, and (iv) the type of input usages. Moreover, and more importantly, some conclusions obtained by prior studies on location theory in a certainty world can also be shown to be special cases of our more general results, but some are not justifiable in a world with random input price.     

FDI Location and Special Economic Zones in the Philippines

This paper analyzes the location behavior of foreign direct investments (FDIs) in the Philippines from 1987–1998 and points out the role special economic zones (SEZs) and infrastructure play in this location decision. The effects of real income, wages, skills, SEZs, highways and ports on the probability that a manufacturing FDI firm chooses a region are estimated using a negative binomial count model. Results yield expected signs and significant coefficients for all variables except for skills. Regressions were also run for 1987–1992 and 1993–1998 sub-periods to examine structural changes. The stark shift of investments from Metro Manila into other regions during the latter period shows some possible spillover effects of the SEZs as well as infrastructure development carried out in the previous transitional sub-period. Significant marginal effects are highest for paved highways and ports, which strongly indicate that improvement of these two regional factors increase the probability of FDI location.     

集装箱船舶大型化对港口的影响

随着世界经济和国际贸易的快速发展,集装箱运输需求将不断增长,进而推动集装箱船舶日益向大型化方向发展。文中从集装箱船舶大型化发展的现状入手,详细分析了其对港口产生的主要影响,并提出港口应对集装箱船舶大型化发展趋势可以采取的措施。     

当前我国集装箱港口市场结构及其发展研究

根据产业经济学的理论,市场结构是现代产业组织理论特别是SCP分析框架中最基本的概念和研究主题。因此文章从市场集中度、市场进出入壁垒和港口服务的差别化等方面对集装箱运输港口的市场结构进行分析。通过分析得出结果:集装箱港口的市场集中度水平处于中度寡占型,同时各个港口之间的吞吐量差距继续存在,并具有缩小的趋势。并针对当前市场结构的特点,对集装箱港口的进一步发展给出战略性建议。     

拓展港口企业市场边界与中国枢纽港口的发展

在经济学中,市场边界可以被解释为产品或服务可以被有效销售出去的地理区域或范围。随着经济全球化与集装箱运输技术的发展,港口企业的供需关系产生了明显的变化,国际航运企业逐渐采用了枢纽辐射式航线结构系统布局,以至于带来了枢纽港海向腹地的拓展,由此导致了枢纽港的市场边界大范围的扩展。目前,远东港口市场的发展中中国因素变得日益显著。远东各大枢纽港都面向中国大陆拓展自身的海向腹地;同时,中国大陆的枢纽港发展速度越来越快,也日趋成熟。因此,远东地区枢纽港口市场边界的拓展也日益激烈,各大港口之间产生了交叉竞争。当中国的枢纽港口逐渐成熟之后,最终会组成一个稳定的港口群和重要的航线系统。那时,远东的枢纽港口市场边界会变得日益稳定。     

A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Efficiency Improvements at Japanese Ports

In this paper we investigate the system-wide impact of increased efficiency of ports in Japan using a computable general equilibrium model developed for 1995. The Japanese Ministry of Transport has been implementing programs of the Ninth Seven-year Port Development Plan to improve port efficiency. The technological efficiency in the ports reduces the cost of shipping transportation, and the forward and backward linkages of imports and exports introduce some positive gains in the national GDP. Our analysis proves that the spillover effects are substantial on shipping transportation and to a lesser extent on the Japanese economy.     

Determining optimal fuel delivery strategies under uncertainty

During the preparation before a hurricane makes landfall, affected individuals may be asked to evacuate. Large and small-scale evacuations can cause rapid increases in the demand for gasoline fuel. However, during a hurricane vessels carrying gas may be delayed and/or rerouted, adding to the difficulty of providing the necessary gas in affected areas. In this work, we determine alternate delivery locations and times for vessels carrying fuel that are scheduled to arrive and deliver fuel at ports impacted by an approaching hurricane. Motivated by Hurricane Irma in Florida, we develop a multi-period stochastic scheduling model that incorporates hurricane (weather) advisories, fuel delivery schedules, port storage capacities, and port docking capacities. Our model determines the best schedule based on two objectives: (1) minimize the total unmet demand at each port, and (2) minimize inequities in unmet demands among the ports. We also present a case study and a numerical experiment based on fuel delivery data from ports in Florida. Among our key findings is that port availability is the driving factor in determining feasible schedules for vessel gas deliveries. We also present a scheduling heuristic that dynamically adapts to weather advisories so as to minimize the impact of unmet demand in the affected areas.     

上海港集装箱运输发展的合作竞争战略

上海港集装箱运输近年来发展迅速,洋山深水港的开港又为上海港的发展注入新的活力。国家提出以上海为中心,浙江、江苏为两翼,建设上海国际航运中心政策。同时,长江黄金水道开发成为长江流域港口整合的契机。以上这些都为上海港的发展带来了机遇与挑战,使上海港面临合作与竞争。本文运用区位商理论分析港口腹地,论证上海港的经济腹地,提出上海港发展的合作竞争战略。     

Location and the theory of production: A review,summary and critique of recent contributions

This paper has two main objectives. First, a generalized version of the Moses-type production- location model is developed where both the input variables and the location variables are allowed to adjust simultaneously. Secondly, the results of the recent articles relating to the Moses framework are discussed in the context of our generalized structure. We conclude that - unless one is willing to assume either the transport rate of output is zero or the location is constrained to be on the Moses arc - if transport rates do not depend on quantities shipped then location is independent of output when the production function is homogeneous of degree one. If transport rates depend on quantities shipped (e.g. quantity discounts), then a production function which is linearly homogeneous is not sufficient to insure that location is independent of output unless the transport rate functions have constant elasticities.     

中国集装箱海铁联运发展瓶颈和要点分析

集装箱海铁联运是一个复杂的系统。中国港口年吞吐量已达到1.45亿TEU,海铁联运比重却不到2%,严重制约集疏运的效率。从集装箱海铁联运的管理体制、协调组织机制、基础设施、服务体系、综合效益以及铁路和港口部门等方面深入探讨其发展的瓶颈,从而找到海铁联运发展滞后的原因,提出海铁联运未来发展的要点。     

Energy balance climate models and general equilibrium optimal mitigation policies

In a general equilibrium model of the world economy, we develop a two-dimensional energy balance climate model featuring heat diffusion and anthropogenic forcing driven by global fossil fuel use across the sphere of the Earth. This introduces an endogenous location dependent temperature function, driving spatial characteristics, in terms of location dependent damages resulting from local temperature anomalies into the standard climate-economy framework. We solve the social planner's problem and characterize the competitive equilibrium for two polar cases differentiated by the degree of market integration. We define optimal taxes on fossil fuel use and how they may implement the planning solution. Our results suggest that if the implementation of international transfers across latitudes is not possible then optimal taxes are in general spatially non-homogeneous and may be lower at poorer latitudes. The degree of spatial differentiation of optimal taxes depends on heat transportation. By employing the properties of the spatial model, we show by numerical simulations how the impact of thermal transport across latitudes on welfare can be studied.     

模拟退火算法在压缩天然气加气站选址中的应用

压缩天然气(CNG)加气站选址对CNG汽车的发展有重要影响,合理的加气站选址能使加气站以较低的运输费用为尽可能多的CNG汽车提供加气服务,使项目有较高盈利水平,为此,构造了一个CNG加气站最大收益选址模型,通过求解该模型,可以为CNG加气站项目管理者提供一个最优或者近似最优的选址方案。     

考虑政府补贴因素的宁波海铁联运腹地划分

首先在宁波海铁联运已有研究基础上考虑政府补贴因素,通过量化综合效用值构建决策效用模型,并基于效用值范围提出了新的腹地划分标准。其次以与宁波已开展海铁联运业务的腹地城市合肥为例验证模型。结果表明,当政府补贴高于160元时,在与宁波已开展海铁联运业务的沿海港中,合肥的综合效用值最高,合肥属于宁波间接腹地;当补贴低于160元时,连云港成为宁波海铁联运首选港,合肥降级为宁波海铁联运可竞争腹地。同时模型也可为政府确定合理补贴范围提供理论支持。     

基于区位势的区域物流体系布局规划研究

通过对不同城镇的交通区位以及城镇社会经济发展的分析,引入交通区位势和城镇节点重要度,建立基于交通可达性和城镇节点重要度的区位势理论模型,并将其应用于平阳县区域物流体系布局规划的实证研究。     

洋口港液化品物流园区经营模式研究

文章通过分析江苏省经济产业分布、各港口发展情况和业务布局,得出必须加快沿海港口尤其是深水海港洋口港的开发,建立洋口港液化品物流园区,将其打造成为液化品运输的国际“接口”的结论.并在此基础上借鉴国内外相关港口液化品物流园区的发展经验,初步提出了关于洋口港液化品物流园区的经营模式.