新兴市场国家货币贬值原因、影响与启示

正2013年5月以来,在美国、欧盟、日本等发达国家经济呈现复苏态势的同时,主要新兴市场国家金融市场多次发生动荡,本币相继贬值、国际资本纷纷外逃,并对其实体经济发展、金融体系运行产生了一系列负面影响。尤其是,作为金砖国家(高盛报告2003年推出)的印度、巴西、南非,因国内经济问题,在2013年同土耳其、印尼被列为"脆弱五国"(摩根士丹利报告2013年推出)。以下主要以印度、巴西、南非、俄罗斯、土耳其、阿根廷、印尼等经济总量较大的新兴市场国家     

优化中国金融结构,打造开放和国际化的资本市场

要改革当前金融体系的结构性问题,就应该大力发展资本市场,改变资本市场本身结构的不合理以及充分发挥资本市场本身的特有功能,而且这已经显得刻不容缓了当前中国金融体系的结构性矛盾中国金融体系的结构问题主要体现在直接融资规模过小,间接融资规模过大,传统意义上的股票市场规模较大,创业板、场外以及债券市场等规模较小。     

新兴经济体：走过困扰的2013

2013年,对于新兴市场经济体而言是具有转折意味的一年。此前新兴市场在危机之中经济仍保持较快增长,成为全球经济增长的引擎。但是,在即将过去的2013年,巴西、印度、印度尼西亚、俄罗斯和南非等新兴市场受到本国经济结构性问题的困扰以及发达国家经济政策的负面外溢效应的冲击,     

加快中国金融体系的结构性变革

中国的金融体系核心部分是银行体系,中国金融体系现在面临很多的问题,其中最大的一个任务是要进行结构性转型。改革开放20多年来,包括银行体系在内的整个中国金融体系,结构性的变化却非常少的或者说根本没有进行结构性的变化。所以中国的金融体系总体上还是非常传统的体系,这种体系还难以与国家的战略目标相匹配,所以必须对中国的金融体系进行结构性的变革。这其中最重要的有几个方面,未来一定要发生变化。     

风雨过后将见彩虹

我们对下一阶段市场总体保持谨慎乐观，认为市场下行空间有限。主要原因在于短周期经济向上、流动性宽松和改革预期。在补库存和政府换届完成后投资加速的背景下，经济短周期向上的趋势明确，从而带动市场盈利恢复预期乐观；影子银行问题短期内不会快速解决，一定程度上消除市场对金融体系危机的担心，同时资金价格呈现边际改善；全球流动性宽松的局面在上半年将维持，资金继续流入新兴市场国家；     

金融危机前后金融体系结构变化和制度因素分析

本文采用包含发达国家和发展中国家的跨国面板数据进行实证检验后发现,在经历了金融危机之后金融体系结构会有一个短期逆转的现象。而在大多数新兴经济体中,由于股票市场发展并不十分充分,金融危机发生后,新兴经济体金融体系结构变化的广度会小于那些金融体系结构均衡发展的国家。因此,新兴经济体由于经济衰退和金融体系破坏而承担的成本更高,经济恢复需要的时间更长。研究结论表明,政府不应仅仅关注金融体系的发展,应该致力于建立更为均衡发展的金融体系结构,而且注重提升政府对金融体系的监管质量和法治完善程度,将有助于金融危机的治理。     

新兴市场国际资本逆转问题的观察与分析

席卷全球的金融危机改变了国际资本流入新兴市场的既定状况。由于世界范围内的信贷严重紧缩和美元的高调升值,形成了金融资本大规模撤离新兴市场国家的新现象。这一资本逆转的结果不仅可能加大新兴市场国家货币的贬值压力,冲击和干扰其本已脆弱的金融体系,而且势必打击该区域实体产业和既有福利。国际社会应当从加强监管、密切金融合作和消除贸易保护主义等方面尽可能阻止金融资本撤离新兴市场的进程和规模。     

新兴市场国际资本逆转问题的观察与分析

席卷全球的金融危机改变了国际资本流入新兴市场的既定状况。由于世界范围内的信贷严重紧缩和美元的高调升值,形成了金融资本大规模撤离新兴市场国家的新现象。这一资本逆转的结果不仅可能加大新兴市场国家货币的贬值压力,冲击和干扰其本已脆弱的金融体系,而且势必打击该区域实体产业和既有福利。国际社会应当从加强监管、密切金融合作和消除贸易保护主义等方面尽可能阻止金融资本撤离新兴市场的进程和规模。     

新兴市场国家面临的经济结构性矛盾与中长期增长前景

在国际金融危机的影响尚未消除、美国逐步退出超常规量化宽松货币政策的背景下,新兴市场国家的经济运行虽面临比较复杂的外部环境,但自身存在的深层次结构性矛盾才是经济发展面临的主要挑战。由于不同程度地存在着产业结构和需求结构不合理、财政和经常项目逆差以及收入分配差距过大等深层次结构性矛盾,新兴市场国家的中长期经济发展取决于自身实施结构改革的决心、路径和成效,并将因此呈现出不同的增长前景。     

我国债券市场回顾与展望

2019年,面对国内外风险挑战明显上升的复杂局面,债券市场作为经济金融体系的重要组成部分,在各监管机构和市场参与机构的共同努力下,切实践行金融供给侧结构性改革要求,在服务实体经济、防控金融风险、深化金融改革等方面发挥了重要作用。     

Bayesian Premium Rating with Latent Structure

We propose a fully Bayesian approach to non-life risk premium rating, based on hierarchical models with latent variables for both claim frequency and claim size. Inference is based on the joint posterior distribution and is performed by Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Rather than plug-in point estimates of all unknown parameters, we take into account all sources of uncertainty simultaneously when the model is used to predict claims and estimate risk premiums. Several models are fitted to both a simulated dataset and a small portfolio regarding theft from cars. We show that interaction among latent variables can improve predictions significantly. We also investigate when interaction is not necessary. We compare our results with those obtained under a standard generalized linear model and show through numerical simulation that geographically located and spatially interacting latent variables can successfully compensate for missing covariates. However, when applied to the real portfolio data, the proposed models are not better than standard models due to the lack of spatial structure in the data.     

The development of the group accounts disclosure system in Japan

The Japanese disclosure system of consolidated statements was introduced in 1977 and extensively revised in 1997. The role of the bureaucracy has been significant in these developments and seems to be part of Japan's closed culture. However, other explanations could also be applied. In particular, although Japanese firms opposed such disclosures on the basis of preparation costs, the Japanese government had to modernize the disclosure system, including consolidation, in order to develop the securities market regardless of an individual company's interests.     

Moments of Compound Mixed Poisson Distributions

Recursive formulae are derived for the evaluation of the moments and the descending factorial moments about a point n of mixed Poisson and compound mixed Poisson distributions, in the case where the derivative of the logarithm of the mixing density can be written as a ratio of polynomials. As byproduct, we also obtain recursive formulae for the evaluation of the moments about the origin, central moments, descending and ascending factorial moments of these distributions. Examples are also presented for a number of mixing densities.     

The designing of corporate accounting law in Japan after the Second World War

After the Second World War, during the neutralization of the controlled economy of wartime Japan, a design for a Corporate Accounting Law was elaborated by the Investigation Committee on the Business Accounting System. The Investigation Committee tried to establish not only new business accounting standards but also a central and independent administrative organ of corporate accounting regulation on the basis of the Corporate Accounting Law. The Corporate Accounting Law was expected to lay the legal foundation of the new corporate accounting regulation regime in Japan. Nevertheless, even though the original design of the fundamental accounting law was never realized, it should be considered the starting point for our understanding of external accounting history in post-war Japan.     

Disclosure of government financial information and the cost of local government’s debt financing——Empirical evidence from provincial investment bonds for urban construction

China’s slowing economic growth and rapid urbanization have made local government debt financing a significant issue.This study uses a sample of China’s provinc...     

The deliberation around accounting techniques: accounting for depreciation and foreign exchange in an Indian jute company, 1870-1900

This paper examines the way two accounting techniques, namely depreciation and foreign exchange, were deliberated on, between 1870 and 1900, in an Indian jute company whose shareholders resided in the UK. The arena for these deliberations was the conflictual relationship between controlling and non-controlling shareholders as to how best to account for depreciation and foreign exchange especially when the particular accountings affected distributional issues such as the dividend decision. The purpose of this paper is to analyse and explain the processes by which a company's accounting practices emerge and develop as a contest between different interests. Accounting framed the parameters of the deliberations and provided the language of power and dissent. The paper uses a rich archive that includes narrative and accounting material.     

Short-sale refinancing and price adjustment speed to bad news: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China

Short selling may accelerate stock price adjustment to negative news. However, the literature provides mixed evidence for this prediction. Using short-sale refinancing and a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) model, this paper explores the effect of short selling on stock price adjustment. Our results show that (1) short-sale refinancing improves the speed of stock price adjustment to negative news. This result holds after we control for endogeneity. (2) The positive relationship between short-sale refinancing and stock price adjustment speed is significant in subsamples of stocks with higher earnings management or lower accuracy of analyst forecasts, indicating that firms with more opaque information are more likely to be targeted by short sellers. In subsamples of stocks with a higher ownership concentration or lower ownership by institutional investors, short selling is more likely to increase the speed of stock price adjustment, indicating that ownership structure may influence negative news mining. (3) As short-sale refinancing exacerbates the absorption of bad news by stock prices, it increases crash risk. This study enriches the research on the economic consequences of short selling and provides empirical evidence supporting regulations on short selling in China.     

Guidelines for Manuscripts Submitted to The China Journal of Accounting Research

【正】The China Journal of Accounting Research"CJAR"(ISSN 1755-3091)publishes quarterly.It contains peer-reviewed articles and commentaries on accounting,auditing ...     

Pricing Dynamic Insurance Risks Using the Principle of Equivalent Utility

We introduce an expected utility approach to price insurance risks in a dynamic financial market setting. The valuation method is based on comparing the maximal expected utility functions with and without incorporating the insurance product, as in the classical principle of equivalent utility. The pricing mechanism relies heavily on risk preferences and yields two reservation prices - one each for the underwriter and buyer of the contract. The framework is rather general and applies to a number of applications that we extensively analyze.