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1.
We live in a unipolar world not only politically and militarily, but intellectually too with globalisation attaining the status of dogma. As globalisation has not always helped developing countries, swadeshi, or self-reliance, has been strongly advocated by influential groups in India. Logically, there is space for both: globalisation for improving competitiveness of tradeables, and swadeshi for maximising employment through non-tradeables.India has been growing well but not as well it could because of excessive impedance to growth. Impedance has three components: weight of tradition, reluctance to change, and friction against movement. Positive feedback in the form of local autonomy has been suggested as a remedy. As positive feedback is inherently unstable, it should be circumscribed by negative feedback. Integral feedback, integrating over all local units combined together, and over time, should minimise risk of instability.Apart from local autonomy, India will progress fast only if bureaucracy is assured security. In particular, frequent, arbitrary and often vindictive transfers of officials have become a dreaded menace. They should be subjected to the rule of law. Politicians have become a problem; many of them bank on promoting hatred. As a remedy, each voter may be given as many votes as there are candidates, and also the option to make each vote either positive or negative. Then, any hate vote gained will be nullified by the negative votes. Hate will cease to be profitable.President Kalam’s proposal for shifting investment from congested cities to rural areas by linking loops of villages by four types of connectivity—physical, electronic, economic and knowledge—promises to hasten India’s growth, and improve the environment too. Ultimately, that way we can dream of a future where even the poorest will enjoy all basic Maslow Needs—water, shelter, education, health services, connectivity, good environment, and enough surplus of money and time to enjoy leisure.
Article Outline
1. Predicting the futureThe important thing is not to predict the future but to change it. As Norbert Wiener has shown mathematically [4], extrapolations to predict the future can be made scientifically, but not accurately. All predictions are bound to be in error, and the error will increase as we move farther towards the future.According to Wiener, the future has three parts: one, the consequences of past events; two, unforeseeable events of the future, and their consequences, and three, the changes we can initiate, innovations we can introduce. Only the last part is under our control, not the first two. Vision 20-20 is managing that part wisely and with foresight.Though only a part of the future may be controlled, it may still be moulded rapidly and significantly. History has innumerable examples of nations being transformed at astonishing speeds, and in amazing ways. In the twentieth century, Japan rose, Phoenix-like from the ashes to astound the world. The Soviet Union rose like a meteor and collapsed like a pricked balloon. Thus, very rapid economic progress is possible, and the reverse too can happen.According to the World Economic Outlook 2002–033, on the Purchasing Power Parity basis, India is now the fourth largest economy in the world. In the next five years, it is likely to overcome Japan too to become the third largest. At the present rate, it should overcome even the US in another 30–40 years. However, there is little prospect of its per capita income ever reaching the levels of developed countries. Hence, while its large economic size gives India enough energy to managing its own economy with a fair degree of autonomy, its low per capita income leaves it with comparatively little power to influence others. India is an elephant, not a lion.2. Charting the futureThe future course of India can be charted in three different ways. The most widely recommended one is the economic path of globalisation. Globalisation has relentless critics too who suggest swadeshi (or self-reliance) as most appropriate for a poor country like India. We will consider an amalgamation of the two to secure the benefits of both, and minimise the weaknesses of either. President Kalam, currently the President of India, has been vigorously propagating an engineering approach—development based on four types of rural connectivity, transport, electronic, economic, and knowledge. Both because of his exalted position, and because of the personal respect, he commands, his idea of rural connectivity based development may come to be accepted. The third approach discussed here is one of structural reform that aims to make India’s governance efficient, and minimise its political aberrations.The three approaches have different emphases but they are not mutually incompatible. Table 1 summarises the three approaches. Integrating all three together, we can think of a Vision of Future India where:
2.
This paper argues that for futures studies (FS) to have a future that is relevant to current shifts in meaning and consciousness, then it must incorporate into its methods and practices a sense of mystery founded on a critically spiritual sensibility. Critical spirituality redefines rationality and empiricism by including within their framework both the somatic and the meditative as valid and necessary components of any research activity. In the short term this means a shift away from the current Western obsession with change and a stepping back to allow for critical distance in order to understand that it is in the appreciation of progress — a fundamental shift in consciousness to include the spiritual dimensions of human experience — that discourse will emerge to take FS to the heart of civilisational renewal. In allowing for mystery, silence and the meditative empiricism required to access these categories, critical spirituality lessens the gap between thought and action and thus enables truly transformative academic practice to emerge.The idea of progress has been central to the unfolding of the modernist project over the previous century. Yet as the century drew to a close it became increasingly hard to keep faith with the idea in the face of growing disillusionment and the obvious failure of modernism to deliver what people most wanted: happiness born of personal fulfillment. A growing range of voices in the critical futures field have been questioning the assumption that change in material terms equates with progress.These voices fall into four main areas.
3.
This paper proposes experimenting with anticipatory action learning for helping to create the future. It is an interactive process that relies strongly on a central thread of conversation among a variety of participants, from multiple perspectives, concerned with the social unit or project. Basically, anticipatory action learning is action research modified for foresight. It integrates research/search with decision and action, and downgrades the prerogative of a research elite, empowering all participants. Conversation allows meaning from a range of different worldviews to be shared and negotiated for studying, theorising and otherwise engaging the future—and more importantly, for helping to create it. Criteria are proposed for anticipatory action learning and procedural and administrative limitations are addressed.The visions we have about our own futures vary according to the mindset each of us stands in. It would be fascinating to compare the personally envisioned futures of everyone at an international meeting of futurists. Our futures should converge in some way where we share common interests as futurists, and diverge on the point of intercultural variety. But, would they differ from each other as widely as those of Aung San Suu Kyi and the Burmese generals?It would be even more telling to compare the range of alternative futures envisioned by world leaders with the visions of their constituents and especially, say, with the visions of a woman in Africa’s Central Lakes region and of the homeless in Osaka.In a similar way, the means of engaging the future in order to study it, and its uncertainties, and the way people think about it, are variously dependent on the mindsets of the scholars and researchers, and the realities they find themselves in. Methodologies of futures studies range across the predictable: from empirical quantitative projection (linear and non-linear); to qualitative interpretation and critical analysis; and to participatory action research or its associate, action learning.Then, futures studies differs according to the disciplinary framework of the researcher, whether in physics, ecology, complexity science, social science and the humanities, critical cultural theory or philosophy. Further, there is the division of the pragmatic and academic perspectives.Actually, the very fact of having a formal methodology is itself derived from a dominant civilisational and ethical perspective, mainly Western.There is another important distinction in futures studies. On the one hand, there is the perspective from which futurists research, analyse and critique the future, or more precisely what other people think and say about the future. On the other, there is the perspective from which people in the focal social unit may think and act to create their own futures.Then, acting to create a future poses at least two further distinctions depending on whether one believes the future is structurally preordained, or whether human interaction and intervention play a significant part.It is from the perspective of participative human agency acting to create one future or another, at least partially, that this paper proceeds.Before going further, let us address the question of whether future-creating can rightly be claimed to constitute the study of the future, or future studies. If it is not part of futures studies, then at least future-creating activity does rely on input from the field, the results of studying and reflecting on alternative options for the future—futures, plural. Whatever way we look at creating the future, as opposed to merely researching data about it, the activity does represent a fairly direct, personal engagement of the future, as much as anyone can do about a time–space that has yet to arrive. This is an important distinction, since many empirical futures studies do not so directly engage the future, well not personally. Rather, they examine stated opinions of others about future options, and other people’s preferences, emerging issues and the like, themselves all valuable activities. If, as Michel Godet has said, ‘...the future is not written anywhere and has still to be built...’ [[1]], creating the future is a central activity which at least deserves full consideration by the field of futures studies, especially if it relies on the analysis and critique of data generated or accessed around the activity itself. Article Outline
1. Democratising the futureCreating the future can be controlled by the wealthy, powerful and famous, and their minders and lackeys. But in the spirit of democracy, future-creating would seek to ensure that people who have a stake in the future, either through their likely habitat there, or their successor generations, should be able to participate in that creation. This does not happen with the more traditional methodologies of futures studies, where experts stand aside from the vast majority of other citizens.A methodology, a procedure even, that permits such participation can generically be termed as participatory action research. It allows relative freedom from structure and process to encourage invention and more diverse exploration of the perspectives and issues than are often allowed with any other single methodology. In fact, participatory methods usually employ a range of other methodologies, to input data for analysis and critical reflection.But participation is not without its limits, which could be why so much futures work is done by experts. We have limited opportunities, in even the most so-called democratic societies, for participation in action research by more than a chosen handful of people. It is therefore not surprising that most action research happens within small, discrete communities, be they villages, classrooms, or even prisons.In fact, participative activity is valued less highly than adversarial competition, and this could be a good argument against its use. It can be threatening to the controlling elite. But have we given it a fair trial?2. Learning to participateWhatever, we should not be blind to the problems of action research, flagged elsewhere: [[2]], including:
3. Anticipatory action learningAnticipatory action learning seeks to link inquiry, anticipation and learning with decisions, actions and evaluation, during an openly democratic process. The communication style needs to be what Lee Thayer [[3]] once called diachronous, as opposed to synchronous. By diachronous Thayer means that the goals and the means for achieving them are decided during the participation process itself. With synchronous or top-down communication, the goals and the means are imposed before the participation begins.Anticipatory action learning, as proposed here, borrows from the seminal concepts of Morgan and Ramirez [[4]]. They see action learning as holographic, as a means of developing capacities for people to investigate and understand their own situations, and to go further, to decide and act within an ongoing social context.This stands in contrast to the approach of more conventional methodologies where research seeks primarily knowledge and understanding. Important as these needs are, they can be taken out of their social context into that of the expert researcher.As with Morgan and Ramirez, anticipatory action learning needs to meet certain criteria. It should be democratic, multilateral and pluralistic. It needs to empower and be proactive, linking individual with social transformation. Thus, it would integrate different levels of understanding in an evolving and open-ended way. In this sense, creating intelligent and humane action is more important than contributing to formal knowledge.I would change this slightly, first by saying that it should be anticipatory and interactive, or preactive, rather than proactive. What is envisaged is a collaborative, anticipatory activity. The term “proactive” most often suggests a determinism that I doubt is intended by Morgan from his successive writing. Proaction is a notion that has been appropriated by can-do marketing, among others, to impose preordained change.Second, I would prefer to use the term coevolutionary, again to stress pluralistic mutual adjustment, since one criticism of evolution suggests it is still based in a progressive determinism.Simply put, anticipatory action learning is a matter of taking one of the many well-developed action learning processes, such as that of Peter Checkland [[5]], and adding the anticipatory component. In such a case, it is important that the spirit and integrity of exploring alternative futures be observed.4. Beyond planningAnticipatory action learning differs from much of the scenario planning that happens today, even if conducted in a participatory way. There needs to be more deliberate attention to exploring a full range of alternative futures, from the probable to the possible, the preferred to the undesirable, not forgetting the futures that are not easily seen from a conventional mindset. Scenario planning still tends to extrapolate from the past more than work back from the future. Anticipatory action learning does use trend analysis for suggesting certain alternative futures, but seeks to backcast from future visions to infer the actions along the way, including the first steps to be taken in the present.Characteristics of the process, include:
5. Freeing the mindHuman groupings show a tendency to stay in the conventional wisdom, or slip back into it for comfort, whether in small groups or the wider society. Scott Burchill [[6]] suggests that defining the ‘spectrum of permitted expression is a highly effective form of ideological control’, even in so-called free societies.He evokes George Orwell’s warning in Animal Farm [[7] that, in a democracy, an orthodoxy is a body of ideas which it is assumed all ‘...right-thinking people will accept without question...’. Anyone who challenges the prevailing orthodoxy finds himself (sic) silenced with surprising effectiveness.More work needs to be done on how to encourage divergent thought in conversation to ensure that a range of alternative future options emerges, including some off-the-wall thinking. One suggestion that can be helpful is to ensure a range of different perspectives is present.As with participatory processes, conversation has its limitations and problems.The act (or is it art?) of conversation is often discounted, even ridiculed, in contemporary scholarly inquiry perhaps because it appears to lack the formality of structure and process that characterise most traditional methodologies. Is this because we take conversation for granted, and have not adequately studied it, or because we intend respectfully to value the systematic methodological processes we spend so much hard time mastering in the academy? Or are both factors at work? The answers beg further research elsewhere.6. Reimagining conversationIn a series of broadcast talks, historian Theodore Zeldin [[8]] argues for the value of conversation, in certain forms, though neither specifically for research—nor, perhaps more accurately, for futuring; for search. The kind of conversation he is interested in begins with a ‘willingness to emerge a slightly different person’. The really big scientific revolutions have been the invention not of some new machine, but of new ways of thinking, as with the Renaissance and the Enlightenment.But can an individual expect to have an impact on other than oneself, if the world is controlled by powerful economic and political forces, as we see in the new globalisation? Does that justify not trying?Zeldin points out that revolutions such as the Renaissance and the Enlightenment are not the inventions of some machine but of the ways we talk about things. To him, the world is made of ‘individuals searching for a partner, for a lover, for a guru, for God’. But he calls for a new conversation that develops equality, opening up to each other in an entirely natural way. And further, ‘we need a new kind of novel and film to create visions of how people can live together as equals, with humour’.It seems that conversation can aid the search for a compelling image of the future, which, if we follow Johan Galtung, can be a potent force for change.Compelling images can be constructed autocratically or democratically. If the process is democratic, it allows the unbridled negotiation of meaning in order to construct images or visions in a collaborative way. It allows people to generate understandings that help them act in their own situation.Thus anticipatory action learning, incorporating conversation as it does, partly systematic and open, should ideally enable a rich exploration of a range of visions of the future from multiple perspectives, including the undesirable. There is nothing likely to be so compelling as the obverse of the undesirable future.7. Global multilogueAn example of the use of conversation for exploring alternative futures can be found in UNESCO’s 21st Century Dialogues in Paris, in September 1998. Compared with anticipatory action learning, the UNESCO event represented a relatively more ceremonially moderated use of conversation in global futures studies. The dialogues did not intentionally use action learning or action research, although that does not say the event was not thoughtfully designed.The UNESCO experience did show how the process of human dialogue—or better, multilogue—as an alternative to more formal methodologies, becomes problematic because of our epistemological distances from one another. Such distances are the result of often dramatic variations in culture, language, gender, history, attitudes towards subjectivity, objectivity and intersubjectivity, and our understandings and misunderstandings of the future.Conversation, especially when multicultural and interdisciplinary, also poses a dilemma. While cultural, linguistic and epistemological diversity ideally allow a rich array of perspectives on issues about the future, and thus a plurality of meanings, the very difference in perspectives contributes to difficulties in understanding each other. We only have to look at other cultures’ metaphors to realise this. And conversation which starts with the clean slate of a relatively distant future, say 50 or more years ahead, is not immune to conflict, even psychological and other forms of violence—interinstitutional and interpersonal.Events such as the 21st Century Dialogues will most likely be replicated in a variety of forms as we settle into a new “millennium”, unless futures interest has faded with millennial madness. In such dialogues, futurists would have an ideal opportunity to experiment with inclusive multicultural conversations as the means of navigating and negotiating through the differences that result from our divergent thoughts and proposals. But discrimination needs to be minimised against participants who do not speak or understand the main international languages.Other things that need to be taken into account when facilitating conversation are the structure, including the setting, and the process of conversation. Relative lack of structure, with minimum control of process, now sits quite comfortably with many people from American and Australian cultures, for example, while Russians and East Asians demand mandated structure and process. Timetabling, seating, ambience and allowing for the inarticulate to participate are also considerations.These requirements vary according to one’s cultural experiences and we need to experiment with ways to make people comfortable and to encourage their participation in open conversation when they come from a variety of backgrounds, including those that have experienced severe oppression. A big, echoing assembly hall with theatre-style seating is no longer necessarily the ideal venue for certain contemporary global citizens. But then again, it is for others, and we are still building plenty of such halls.8. Questioning the futureConversation, also, needs to encourage the asking of questions, as well as the advocacy of ideas and ideals. It seems important, too, that we find new questions to ask, not simply the same, tired questions founded in the much-discussed issues derived from well-identified problems and categories often determined by academic disciplines and other vested interests.21st Century Dialogues did ask some important new questions, such as: what is the new social contract for the third industrial revolution and accompanying globalisation? We need more such questions, especially about emerging issues—those that are not yet in common currency—across a variety of categories, civilisational perspectives, worldviews and images of the future, especially long-term.One question for futurists is: how do we ensure adequate, inclusive or democratic participation in global conversations about the future when the planet is so vast and culturally diverse?Perhaps futurists need to become activists more than they already are, to step outside the academy more often and to go beyond merely esoteric writing. Futurists may need to become active advocates for the use of anticipatory action learning, or other participatory futures-creating processes, in real-life situations. As well, futurists may need to speak out more as public intellectuals in order to initiate and enrich public conversations about emerging issues and alternative futures.Certainly, further research is recommended on how to apply anticipatory action learning to ensure that meaning is shared with sensitivity and accuracy in multicultural situations. And, also, on how better to bring divergent perspectives to conversational situations that tend to reward convergent thinking.In these pursuits, futurists should not forget the potential of the Internet for global conversations about the future. However there is a long way to go before the Net can be relied on for non-discriminatory, intercultural and intercivilisational multilogue. More than 93 percent of today’s Internet users live among the world’s richest 20 percent, and most of these users are in the social elite that can converse in English; many are experts.The world’s poorest 20 percent, discriminated against because so very many lack an international language, still account for less than one percent of current Internet users [[9]]. 相似文献4.
This paper presents and further explores the issues discussed during the “New generations of futures methods” session at the WFSF 19th World Conference, Budapest, Hungary. The generational interplay has many different facets and can be looked at from many various perspectives. This paper looks at a broader role of young people as agents of cultural change in societies, their relation to futures studies and the implications of their fresh ways of thinking for futures methods. Also, the past evolution of futures methods and the challenges facing the present and future generation of futurists in regard to methodological as well as general development are reviewed. In an effort to draw together these issues and provide practical ways forward for futurists and their field four integrating themes are addressed:
5.
All scenario planning projects have a ‘client’ and one of the most challenging tasks facing a scenario planner is the client's role or position in the way projects are conceptualized, delivered and received. The scenario planner has to establish and manage a ‘successful client relationship’—but what actually constitutes that for a scenario planning project?The client acts as the conduit between the scenario planner and the organization for which the scenario planning project is being undertaken.The ‘client as conduit’ implies several challenges for the scenario planner including:
6.
An image of the future that an individual holds determines what attitude he/she holds towards the future and how he/she behaves in the present. These in turn would increase the probability to make the image realized as imagined in the future. As young people will be the builders of a society in the future, investigating their images of the future has significant implications for the future. With a survey of two groups of university students in Taiwan and the U.S., this study looked into various aspects of images, explored message sources influencing the formation of the images, identified values embedded in the images, and explored the relationship between the images and the students’ understanding of the present. 相似文献
7.
The role of hindsight in foresight: refining strategic reasoning 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The purpose of this paper is to deepen understanding of the role that hindsight plays in foresight. The authors argue that the past is not an isolated static state, but one that is intimately connected with the future. However, there are several biases that influence our perceptions and conceptions of the past. These biases act as constraints on our ability to understand the driving forces that emerge from the past, play out through the present and become the critical uncertainties in the future. They could result in misperceptions about events or processes and so may impair foresight methodologies, such as scenario thinking. Such a foresight bias is characterized by a combination of hindsight biases, creeping determinism and searching for information that corresponds to people’s views about both the past and the future.The cognitive linkages between past, present and future are discussed and the role of counter-to-factual analysis is emphasized as an antidote to the foresight bias. Counter-to-factual analysis is both a cognitive process and an analytical reasoning tool applied to the analysis of historical data. Using insights generated from the explorations of counter-to-factual reasoning, the authors present a hindsight-foresight paragon that fortifies current foresight enhancing techniques with counter-to-factual analysis.
8.
9.
In this article, we challenge the hegemony of western science fiction, arguing that western science fiction is particular even as it claims universality. Its view remains based on ideas of the future as forward time. In contrast, in non-western science fiction the future is seen outside linear terms: as cyclical or spiral, or in terms of ancestors. In addition, western science fiction has focused on the good society as created by technological progress, while non-western science fiction and futures thinking has focused on the fantastic, on the spiritual, on the realization of eupsychia—the perfect self.However, most theorists assert that the non-west has no science fiction, ignoring Asian and Chinese science fiction history, and western science fiction continues to ‘other’ the non-west as well as those on the margins of the west (African–American woman, for example).Nonetheless, while most western science fiction remains trapped in binary opposites—alien/non-alien; masculine/feminine; insider/outsider—writers from the west’s margins are creating texts that contradict tradition and modernity, seeking new ways to transcend difference. Given that the imagination of the future creates the reality of tomorrow, creating new science fictions is not just an issue of textual critique but of opening up possibilities for all our futures.
Science fiction has always been nearly all white, just as until recently, it’s been nearly all male(Butler as quoted in [1]). Science fiction has long treated people who might or might not exist—extra-terrestrials. Unfortunately, however, many of the same science fiction writers who started us thinking about the possibility of extra-terrestrial life did nothing to make us think about here-at home variation—women, blacks, Indians, Asians, Hispanics, etc [1].Is all science fiction western? Is there non-western science fiction? If so, what is its nature? Does it follow the form and content of western science fiction, or is it rendered different by its own local civilizational historical processes and considerations? Has western science fiction moulded the development of the science fiction of the ‘other’, including feminist science fiction, in such a way that anything coming from outside the west is a mere imitation of the real thing? Perhaps non-western science fiction is a contradiction in terms. Or is there authentic non-western fiction which offers alternative visions of the future, of the ‘other’? 相似文献 10.
Sustainability of complex societies 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Joseph A Tainter 《Futures》1995,27(4)
Historical knowledge is fundamental to sustainable development. Recent research implicates the development of complexity in systems of problem solving as a primary cause of societal collapse. Diminishing returns to problem solving limited the ability of historical societies to resolve their challenges, and will limit the ability of contemporary societies to address global change. The solutions to this dilemma lie within
11.
Alessandra Bonfiglioli Carlo A. Favero 《Journal of International Money and Finance》2005,24(8):1299-1316
We explain co-movements between stock markets by explicitly considering the distinction between interdependence and contagion. We propose and implement a full-information approach on data for US and Germany to provide answers to the following questions:
12.
I. F. Clarke 《Futures》1994,26(3)
World War II appears in the history books as a series of moments when major events—Pearl Harbour, Operation Barbarossa, Hiroshima—suddenly transformed the image of the future for nations and, indeed, for most of the inhabitants of Earth. As l.F. Clarke notes, the war years were the time when future-think engaged the minds of all combatants—from the briefing of battalions for the operations of tomorrow to the labours of the decrypters who sought to discover the intentions of the enemy. The intelligence staffs interrogated the future—what? when? where? how many?—and the planners in operations decided the day, hour and place when the battle would begin. These labours of anticipation and prediction did not end with the Japanese ceasefire on 15 August 1945. They carried over into the immediate postwar period to provide models for the first think-tanks. Indeed, they are still with us. On 26 October 1993 the US Central Intelligence Agency introduced the R.V. Jones Intelligence Award for those who had displayed ‘outstanding scientific acumen in the cause of intelligence’. The medal was named for an Englishman, the Assistant Director of Intelligence (Science) who had located the V2 rocket site at Peenemünde. The first recipient was the former Professor of Natural Philosophy in the University of Aberdeen, R.V. Jones. 相似文献
13.
We develop a unified approach with closed-form solutions for pricing bonds, stocks, currencies and their derivatives. The specification assumes a fundamental risk factor represented by a stochastic positive definite matrix following a Wishart autoregressive (WAR) process. By assuming a volatility-in-mean specification for the domestic stock returns and the relative changes of exchange rates, and a domestic stochastic discount factor exponential affine with respect to the fundamental risk, it is possible to derive closed form solutions for the term structures of interest rates and for the risk-neutral probabilities while keeping the flexibility of the model. In particular:
Keywords: Quadratic term structure; Exchange rates; Stochastic volatility model; Wishart process; Futures; Forward contract 相似文献
14.
A reading of Rabindranath Tagore’s last testament—Sabhyatar Sankat [11] (published in English as Crisis in Civilization [12])—reveals that it is an instance of how the colonised have shown at times astonishing capacity to make a transition from realistic criticisms to utopia, which serves as the most volatile critique of the colonial situation. Utopian thinking in the colonial world counters the reality of power, inspires and becomes the basis of hope and resistance. Dissolution and farewell—the two recurrent strains in Tagore’s essay—express the meaning of the rite of dreaming by the colonised. They also spiritualise the dangerous act of dreaming the future by those who feel their fate to be sealed. While politics of the present goes on, all along that, and all through that time, parallel attempts go on to re-make the nation into a new political society based on the incipient ideas of those times of justice and freedom. An overlapping historical sense prevails in a critical time, as it prevailed at the time Tagore wrote his last testament, and the clue to the overlap can be found only in an awareness of the contentious politics of the present, which a later-day chronicler will read as an act of seeing the future. History’s excess is future—the excess that defies rationality, like Tagore’s expectation of the advent of the Man from the East that defied logical explanations about the politics of his time. 相似文献
15.
We used a crisis measure of financial market as defined by Sexena (1998) to study the nature of crisis transmission and the channels through which the 1997 crisis was transmitted among Asian financial markets. Estimated with a vector autoregression (VAR) and an OLS model on Asian financial markets from January 1990 to December 1998, we found that:
16.
S. Parvez Manzoor 《Futures》1991,23(3)
This article considers the future of Muslim political thought in the context of growing de-Islamization and the dominance of Western institutions. The ‘fundamentalist’ theory of the Islamic state—total mobilization of Muslim societies under a universal state—is criticized as religiously an immanentist heresy, and politically a totalitarian nightmare. Proposed here is a way out of the moral and intellectual crisis in Islamic political thought through the principle of Shura—meaning that Muslims must evolve their own form of representative government. 相似文献
17.
Virtual geography 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
Michael Batty 《Futures》1997,29(4-5)
Geography and its study are changing in subtle and dramatic ways in the rapid transition to a digital world. Here we present a preliminary discussion of how this new geography, which we call ‘virtual geography’, might be classified. Virtual geography is not merely Cyberspace per se for it comprises many types of place and space in which the digital world finds expression. We define cspace—the space within computers, cyberspace—the use of computers to communicate, and cyberplace—the infrastructure of the digital world, as key components of what Castells1 refers to as ‘real virtuality’. Virtual geography is all this as well as the study of these worlds from traditional geographic perspectives. Like all classifications, the interesting questions lie at the boundaries between classes—between espace and cyberspace, cyberspace and cyberplace, and between all of these. We illustrate this variety and complexity with examples. 相似文献
18.
With the ‘complexification’ of today's society, due in large measure to rapid technological convergence in the fields of communications and informatics, developing Pacific island countries are faced with what at the surface appears to be a devil's choice: jump on the high-tech bandwagon and risk being subsumed by the Western-dominated ‘cyberculture’, or withdraw from the technology-induced developments evidenced in richer countries and thereby run the risk of falling even further behind. This dichotomy is, of course, false and paints a rather nihilistic picture of Pacific islands futures. The contention here is that such a polemic is selling the Pacific islands a ‘used future’. Therefore, it is vitally important, at this juncture, for Pacific island leaders, entrepreneurs and citizens to recognize that creative, long-term future strategies for planning and optimizing the application and use of high-tech communications in economically advantageous and culturally appropriate ways are desperately needed. 相似文献
19.
Marilyn Strathern 《Futures》1995,27(4)
Throughout the 20th century, body and machine have provided distinctive parallel metaphors for the concept of culture. But now these metaphors are merging as human lives are increasingly engineered through technonatural processes. In one imagined future, biotechnology will give us the means to determine our own genealogy and the potential to play a role in the ‘culturing’ of the future, as the natural and unpredictable transmission of human characteristics is transformed into a predictable process arising from the manipulation of the gene pool. New procreative possibilities—fertilization in vitro, gamete donation, maternal surrogacy etc—challenge us to reconstrue notions of identity and kinship; the article speculates on the implications of this for possible cultural futures. 相似文献
20.
《Futures》2017
The American Dream is a well-researched concept, but what would be its equivalent for Mexico? We investigate the Mexican Dream for young adults (25 to 35 year old Mexicans). The aim of the study is to develop an understanding of the core values of young Mexican adults reflected in their consumer behavior in the financial sector. We implement a cross-cultural consumer behavior framework by David Luna, in order to consider factors like culture, and value systems to uncover the Mexican Dream for young Mexican adults. In order to gather data for this study, six focus group discussions of key informants were carried out in specific areas, such as consumer behavior, futures images and Mexican culture among others. The results suggest that the core drivers of the Mexican Young adults, known as Generation Y, differ from the traditional cultural values in several ways. The results are used to create four images of the future in order to understand the young Mexican adults core drivers for the future: 1) Following the North Americans image describes a future based on the traditional Mexican values updated with a modern twist; 2) The Muddling Through image describes a future where the most important aspects of life go wrong; 3) the Telenovela combines positive and negative aspects in an image of the future; and 4) the Going European image strives for a civilized individualism within a welfare state. 相似文献
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