Investment liberalization and international trade

This paper estimates the cross-price elasticity of exports with respect to investment costs for bilateral relations between 36 countries. We show that the effect of reducing foreign direct investment costs on exports depends on country characteristics and trade costs as predicted by the [Markusen, 1997] and [Markusen, 2002] model. When countries differ in relative factor endowments and trade costs are low, investment liberalization stimulates exports, whereas when countries are similar in terms of relative factor endowments and size, and trade costs are moderate to high, investment liberalization reduces exports.     

Trade liberalization and adjustment in Argentina

This paper looks at trade liberalization attempts in Argentina since 1970, with particular attention to the 1991?–?98 period, estimates the size of the adjustments required by the changes in the trade regimes, and looks at the degree of adjustment attained as manifested by the real effective exchange rate.     

Trade preferences and political equilibrium associated with trade liberalization

This paper, motivated by the so-called North–South problem in trade, analyzes ex ante trade preferences and the source of potential political conflicts regarding trade liberalization. Developing a dynamic extension of the traditional Heckscher–Ohlin model with imperfect labor mobility and tracking overall dynamic paths from the autarky to free-trade steady states, we demonstrate that in the presence of inter-sectoral migration barrier, bilateral free-trade agreements can be welcomed (opposed) by the majority of workers in a capital-abundant (labor-abundant) country, which is inconsistent with the welfare prediction by Stolper and Samuelson. This paper also proposes a numerical algorithm to solve for the entire transition path of the model under rational expectation. Our simulation experiments further reveal that preannounced and delayed implementation can facilitate a bilateral free-trade agreement by partially neutralizing short-run transitional gains and losses so as to persuade the losers to support the reform without affecting the beneficiaries’ trade preferences.     

Trade liberalization,production organization and informal sector of the developing countries

The paper provides an explanation of recent empirical evidence on fragmentation and the expansion of the informal sector in India. We argue that as the prospect of getting a better price in the international market increases, the producers in the formal sector act more like merchants and subcontract production activities to the producers in the informal sectors. Expanding production in the informal sector allows the firm to take advantage of a growing export market. Our theoretical model explains such organizational change in terms of allocation of monitoring effort between marketing and production. The existence of a low-wage informal sector facilitates division of labor and specialization in the formal segment.     

Entry liberalization and export performance: a theoretical analysis in a multi-market oligopoly model

This paper is an attempt to demonstrate how the entry (costless) of firms in an industry may have a dramatic effect on exports from an industry in a country. The results have tremendous implications for LDCs suffering from resource and BOP constraints but having reservoirs of cheap labor. The welfare effects of such entry liberalization policy (or subsidy) can be stated from the Bhagwati theorem that a reduction in an only (single) distortion is necessarily welfare improving by reducing monopoly or oligopoly distortions. However, we have shown that the entry liberalization policy is welfare superior to an equivalent subsidy policy where equivalent is defined in terms of the impact on exports. As a by product, we have also shown how one can integrate the oligopoly models of trade with the general oligopoly literature. The results on the limiting behaviour of an open economy oligopoly model extend the standard results in the oligopoly theory in a closed economy.     

中国与越南双边贸易发展的特点及其存在的问题

本文利用相关统计数据,从实证角度分析了中国与越南之间双边贸易发展的特点及其存在的问题。随着中国与越南两国双边贸易的发展,两国之间的相互依赖程度逐渐提高;中国与越南双边贸易中的波动性和不平衡性特征仍然较为明显,面临一系列矛盾和问题;在中国-东盟自由贸易区的框架下加强两国之间的跨国区域合作,才可能妥善解决双边贸易矛盾和摩擦;应尽快推动两国之间的昆明——老街——河内——海防和南宁——凭祥——河内——海防两条跨国经济走廊和环北部湾经济圈的构建。     

Trade liberalization and industrial restructuring through mergers and acquisitions

This paper analyzes mergers and acquisitions (M&As) as a channel of industrial restructuring after trade liberalization. Using the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA) of 1989 as a source of exogenous variation in trade barriers, I show that trade liberalization increased domestic Canadian M&A activity (Canadian firms buying other Canadian firms) by over 70%. There is no robust link between tariff reductions and either domestic U.S. or cross-border M&As. I also provide evidence that domestic M&As transferred resources from less to more productive firms and that the magnitude of the overall transfer was quantitatively important.     

Trade liberalization and intersectoral labor movements

This paper examines the impact of trade liberalization episodes on movements of labor across sectors. The aim is to assess empirically whether increased trade openness leads to increased structural change and, if so, to what extent. Results for a set of 25 liberalization episodes suggest weakly negative effects of liberalization on the extent of intersectoral labor shifts at the economy-wide 1-digit level of disaggregation. We do uncover increased sectoral change after liberalization at the 3-digit level within manufacturing, although the estimated effects are statistically weak and small in magnitude. The effects of liberalization on labor shifts differ across individual countries, in a way related to the scope and depth of reforms.     

Trade liberalization through asset markets

Political-economy expositions of trade policy have traditionally described asset or factor ownership as not subject to change. Asset markets, however, allow individuals to change the composition of income sources. We consider an economy with stochastic productivity to show how the equilibrium composition of asset portfolios influences individual attitudes toward free trade. The model links financial market completeness and trade liberalization in the second half of the 20th century and provides a contributing answer to why governments in poorer countries without well-developed financial markets have failed to liberalize trade.     

越南对外贸易现状的实证研究——兼论一体化对越南贸易的影响

1993年开始越南对外贸易发展迅速,但也存在一些问题,如贸易连年逆差、市场过于集中以及出口商品层次低等。越南是东盟和亚太经合组织成员,这两个国际经济组织也在一定程度上促进了越南对外贸易的发展,但是其影响力发生了不同的变化。     

Education bias of trade liberalization and wage inequality in developing countries

The aim of this article is to examine the impact of increased trade on wage inequality in developing countries, and whether a higher human capital stock moderates this effect. We look at the skilled–unskilled wage differential. When better educated societies open up their economies, increased trade is likely to induce less inequality on impact because the supply of skills better matches demand. But greater international exposure also brings about technological diffusion, further raising skilled labour demand. This may raise wage inequality, in contrast to the initial egalitarian level effect of human capital. We attempt to measure these two opposing forces. We also employ a broad set of indicators to measure trade liberalization policies as well as general openness, which is an outcome, and not a policy variable. We further examine what type of education most reduces inequality. Our findings suggest that countries with a higher level of initial human capital do well on the inequality front, but human capital which accrues through the trade liberalization channel has inegalitarian effects. Our results also have implications for the speed at which trade policies are liberalized, the implication being that better educated nations should liberalize faster.     

货物贸易、服务贸易与技术贸易发展趋向

通过对世界货物贸易、世界服务贸易和国际技术贸易这三者的发展状况进行对比分析,考察三者在贸易自由化方面的关系,认为技术贸易自由化的阻力是技术贸易、服务贸易和货物贸易中最小的,且发展最快;服务贸易自由化的阻力又小于货物贸易自由化的阻力,其发展速度快于货物贸易,并据此提出我国应采取的对策建议。     

Trade liberalization and informality nexus: Evidence from Pakistan

This study investigates the impact of trade openness on informal sector employment during the drastic 1988s trade reforms of Pakistan. It is generally perceived that increased external competition in less developed countries results in as an expansion in informal sector, which has less compliance with labor market regulations. Using micro-level data of Pakistan, we study the adjustments in the employment of informal sector due to trade openness. We find that informality and trade openness are associated. In Pakistan, trade reforms have given rise to employment in the informal sector. Our findings are robust to different trade-related measures. A substantial flexibility in labor market is required to benefit from the gains of liberalization.     

The GATS and liberalization in a natural-resource rich country

Abstract

We highlight the role of natural resources in countries that use resource revenues to subsidize employment in state-owned services sectors by developing a model of service provision where domestic incumbents and a foreign entrant compete. We find that when natural resource prices have a higher likelihood of increasing, domestic firms control most of the market share but that industry output drops. However, the output of the services industry rises with domestic firms losing market share when natural resource prices are likely to go down. This suggests that a government focused narrowly only on the growth and development of its economy would prefer services liberalization when natural resource prices are likely to be higher.     

Trade policy,export expansion,human capital and growth

This paper empirically investigates the impact of trade policy on export expansion and on GDP growth in developing countries while controlling for the human capital stock and the initial level of development. By using a simultaneous system estimation we unite the approach found in the export expansion and growth literature with the approach found in papers that estimate the effect of trade policy on growth, while also making several improvements in the estimation of the underlying relationships. The results obtained from our estimation are more credible because of these improvements and therefore have stronger policy implications. We find that outward-oriented trade policies substantially and significantly impact growth in developing countries not only by directly enhancing exports but also through a feedback (or multiplier) effect.     

Trade liberalization in services: Investor responses to NAFTA’s cross-border trucking provisions

ABSTRACT

We investigate the response of US trucking firms to the removal of barriers to cross-border trucking under NAFTA. This was done via a program implemented in 2007, cancelled in 2009, and reinstated in 2011. We use a model of endogenous exporting to show that this can arise from incorrect expectations of import competition. We find that, unsurprisingly, the program’s start resulted in lower stock returns, particularly for border firms. However, later policy changes indicate that investors, and particularly those investing in US multinationals, viewed the pilot as beneficial.     

中国零关税机制的现状与发展

随着世界贸易自由化进程的发展,关税减让,尤其是零关税协议成为世界各国关注的焦点.中国加入世贸组织后,利用五年的时间已基本实现了其"入世"承诺;非但如此,中国还与某些贸易伙伴签订了零关税协议,进一步降低了其平均关税水平.目前,中国的零关税机制仍处于发展初期,产生了一定的贸易创造效应,但中国仍需更合理、更策略和更有效地发展零关税机制,从而在全球经济一体化和贸易自由化的进程中获取更大的经济利益.     

Product quality,firm heterogeneity and trade liberalization

This paper develops a framework for studying the general equilibrium effects of endogenous quality upgrading, a new margin of trade, on the welfare impact of trade liberalization. The theoretical model introduces product quality differentiation amongst heterogeneous firms and focuses on supply-side determinants of international trade. Among other results, in general equilibrium, trade liberalization decreases the share of high-quality varieties in exports and the average productivity of exporters. These changes affect average export price in opposite ways. Nevertheless, trade liberalization in the quality-extended model increases consumers’ welfare by more than in the benchmark model.     

Making sense of Bolkestein-bashing: Trade liberalization under segmented labor markets

An increase in the range of tradable goods is analyzed in a two-country Dornbusch-Fischer-Samuelson style model, where labor cannot relocate to another sector upon a non-expected increase in the range of goods that can be traded.The effect of liberalization on the terms of trade tend to favor the poorer country (the “East”), if (as assumed) the most sophisticated goods are tradable before reform. Second, under ex-post liberalization, there exists a class of workers in the West who are harmed because they face competition from Eastern workers and cannot relocate to other activities. But if the East's economy is relatively small, their wage losses are not very large. Things are different, however, if there exist asymmetries in labor market institutions, such that upon reform, labor can relocate in the East but not in the West. Some workers in the West can then experience very large wage losses. Thus, rigid labor markets in the West magnify opposition to reform there.     

Trade liberalization, wage inequality, and endogenously determined nontraded goods

We examine the boundary between traded and nontraded goods as a channel for trade to impact factor prices. In a two-country, two-factor, continuum-good model, tariffs generate a range of nontraded goods. A tariff reduction has a direct effect to expand a country’s import set and an indirect effect through terms of trade to expand its export set. We show that the export expansion can dominate the import expansion, raising the relative demand for the factor intensively used in production. The result is useful in explaining observed rising wage inequality in developing countries following trade liberalization.