Big Data Analysis of Volatility Spillovers of Brands across Social Media and Stock Markets

Volatility is an important metric of financial performance, indicating uncertainty or risk. So, predicting and managing volatility is of interest to both company managers and investors. This study investigates whether volatility in user-generated content (UGC) can spill over to volatility in stock returns and vice versa. Sources for user-generated content include tweets, blog posts, and Google searches. The authors test the presence of these spillover effects by a multivariate GARCH model. Further, the authors use multivariate regressions to reveal which type of company-related events increase volatility in user-generated content.Results for two studies in different markets show significant volatility spillovers between the growth rates of user-generated content and stock returns. Further, specific marketing events drive the volatility in user-generated content. In particular, new product launches significantly increase the volatility in the growth rates of user-generated content, which in turn can spill over to volatility in stock returns. Moreover, the spillover effects differ in sign depending on the valence of the user-generated content in Twitter. The authors discuss the managerial implications.     

The recency of technological inputs and financial performance

Inventions differ in terms of the age of the knowledge base they build upon. We examine what effects differences in the recency of knowledge inputs have on financial performance. Using threshold regression analysis, we isolate three regimes that exhibit different associations between recency and stock return. We find that for firms whose new patents use inputs in the mid‐range of the technological recency distribution, the relationship is positive; higher recency leads to higher stock return. However, for firms whose new patents make use of either nascent or very mature technological inputs, the effects are negative; higher recency leads to lower stock return. These findings indicate that it is not firms utilizing the most recent technological inputs that experience the highest returns to their inventive activity. Indeed, firms operating at the technological input frontier have market returns significantly below the mean. Rather, it is firms whose new patents utilize medial‐aged technological inputs (i.e., firms using inputs slightly behind the technology frontier) that tend to experience the highest returns. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

What Does the Stock Market Tell Us About Real Estate Returns?

This paper analyzes the risks and returns of different types of real estate-related firms traded on the New York and American stock exchanges (NYSE and AMEX). We examine the relation between real estate stock portfolio returns and returns on a standard appraisal-based index, and find that lagged values of traded real estate portfolio returns can predict returns on the appraisal-based index after controlling for persistence in the appraisal series. The stock market reflects information about real estate markets that is later imbedded in infrequent property appraisals. Additional analysis suggests that the differences in the return and risk characteristics across different types of traded real estate firms can be explained in part by appealing to real estate market fundamentals relating to the degree of dependence of the real estate firm upon rental cash flows from existing buildings. These findings highlight the heterogeneity of securitized real estate-related firms.     

Do Real Estate Prices and Stock Prices Move Together? An International Analysis

The relationship between stock prices and real estate prices has been the subject of substantial debate in both the academic and practitioner literatures. Existing studies have focused on the time series of stock and real estate returns using data from a single country, such as the U.S. By necessity, these studies examine return and price changes over short intervals, creating a bias when property values are smoothed from year to year. Using data from 17 different countries over 14 years, this paper examines the relation between stock returns and changes in property values and rents. Consistent with other country-specific studies, we find that, with the exception of Japan, the contemporaneous relation between yearly real estate price changes and stock returns is not statistically significant. However, when the data are pooled across countries and when we look at longer measurement intervals, a significant relation between stock returns and both rents and value changes becomes apparent. Real estate prices are also found to be significantly influenced by GDP growth rates and provide a good long-term hedge against inflation but a poor year-to-year hedge.     

REIT Stock Market Volatility and Expected Returns

We study the relation between REIT stock volatility and future returns, focusing particularly on the financial crisis period of 2007–2009. There is ongoing debate about whether stock volatility can forecast future returns. Our findings suggest that REIT‐implied volatility is negatively related to contemporaneous stock returns; there is a significant positive relationship between REIT implied volatility and future stock volatility; and there is a significant negative relation between REIT implied volatility and future stock returns. Lastly, we develop trading rules based on REIT implied volatility to test whether these relationships are exploitable. The result suggests a potentially profitable trading strategy.     

Diversification Benefits of REIT Preferred and Common Stock: New Evidence from a Utility‐based Framework

We study the diversification benefits of REIT preferred and common stock using a utility‐based framework in which investors segment based on risk aversion. We examine optimal mean‐variance portfolios of investors with different levels of risk aversion given access to different classes of assets and establish three main results. First, REIT common stock helps low risk aversion investors attain portfolios with higher returns, while REIT preferred stock helps high risk aversion investors by providing a venue for risk reduction. Second, REIT preferred stock has a risk‐return profile not easily replicated by other asset classes. Finally, conclusions drawn from the empirical analysis are markedly different under these constraints compared to the classical unconstrained setting.     

Risk and Return on Real Estate: Evidence from Equity REITs

We analyze monthly returns on an equally weighted index of eighteen to twenty-three equity (real property) real estate investment trusts (REITs) that were traded on major stock exchanges over the 1973–87 period. We employ a multifactor Arbitrage Pricing Model using prespecified macroeconomic factors. We also test whether equity REIT returns are related to changes in the discount on closed-end stock funds, which seems plausible given the closed-end nature of REITs.
Three factors, and the percentage change in the discount on closed-end stock funds, consistently drive equity REIT returns: unexpected inflation and changes in the risk and term structures of interest rates. The impacts of these variables on equity REIT returns is around 60% of the impacts on corporate stock returns generally. As expected, the impacts are greater for more heavily levered REITs than for less levered REITs. Real estate, at least as measured by the return performance of equity REITs, is less risky than stocks generally, but does not offer a superior risk-adjusted return and is not a hedge against unexpected inflation.     

Informativeness of performance measures and Chinese executive compensation

We provide evidence on the use of accounting versus stock market performance measures as determinants of Chinese top managers’ compensation over 2001–2007. We theorize and find that (1) accounting returns are weighted more heavily in general than stock returns in determining top executive compensation, (2) state-owned enterprises (SOEs) rely significantly less on stock market returns than do non-SOEs, (3) firms located in high marketization regions rely more heavily on stock market returns to reward managers, and (4) firms with better internal governance quality rely more on stock returns to reward executives. We discuss our findings with particular reference to the Chinese context of our research.     

The deterrent to dubious corporate behavior: Profitability,probability and safety recalls

In response to findings of abnormal stock market reactions following such dubious corporate behaviors as bribery, fraud, and the production of hazardous products, some researchers have argued that the stock market reaction is a sufficient deterrent to these behaviors so that additional regulation is not necessary. In this paper we examine stock market returns as a deterrent to dubious behavior in the production of defective automobiles. Relying on a broader range of assumptions about managerial behavior than are used in previous studies, we question the efficacy of the market as an instrument of social control.     

Elective Stock Dividends and REITs: Evidence from the Financial Crisis

In response to the recent financial crisis, the U.S. Government introduced new rules which allow Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) to issue elective stock dividends (ESDs), i.e., noncash dividends, to satisfy their distribution requirements. The purported goal of these rules was to provide temporary relief to REITs facing cash flow problems. We investigate how the introduction of these rules affects dividend policy of REITs. Surprisingly, we document that only 17 REITs chose to issue elective stock dividends. We examine the characteristics of these REITs and find that their cash flows are similar to REITs that do not select these dividends. This suggests that cash flow problems are unlikely to be the primary determinant of the ESD issuance decision. Instead, our findings indicate the decision to pay ESDs is related to the level of loans that are close to maturity, REIT size, growth prospects and poor performance during the financial crisis. Furthermore, we find that the same factors determine the ratio, amount and frequency of stock dividends issued by these REITs. We also examine the response of shareholders to ESDs announcements and find positive abnormal returns surrounding these dividend announcements.     

The substitution effects of short-term debt for long-term debt on the expected returns of common stocks

The determination of the level of corporate borrowing and the choice of debt maturity are the two most important concerns in the management of capital structure. In this study, we examine analytically and empirically the impact of debt maturity changes on the expected returns of common stocks. Using the US stock market data and financial statement data, we examine the cross-sectional relation between expected returns and financial leverage ratios. We find reliable evidence that common stock expected returns are positively related to the extent of short-term debt financing. The positive relation is significant even after we control for systematic risk, total debt ratio and firm size. The results suggest that an increase in short-term debt which displaces the same amount of long-term debt increases the expected returns of common stocks, possibly because the substitution transfers risk from long-term debtholders to shareholders.The author is from the Department of Business Administration, Han Sung University, Seoul, Korea. This paper is based on my dissertation submitted to the School of Management, SUNY at Buffalo (1991). I would like to thank my dissertation committee, Dosoung Choi, Frank Jen and Michael Rozeff, for their invaluable comments throughout the dissertation research.     

The Effects of Rate Regulation on Mean Returns and Non-Diversifiable Risk: The Case of Cable Television

Anticipated effects of rate controls are best observed in abnormalreturns in sectors providing complements and substitutes to the sector targeted for regulation. Further, risk may rise in response to rate controls, increasing the cost of capital and lowering investment. We examine stock price movements during events tied to the 1992 Cable Act, which reinstituted price controls on U.S. cable TV operators. We find strong evidence that controls were not anticipated to lower quality-adjusted cable rates. In addition, the uncertaintyof the policy led to substantially increased stock betas in some sectors.     

The influence of firm and industry characteristics on returns from technology licensing deals: evidence from the US computer and pharmaceutical sectors

This study examines the relationships between firm and industry characteristics and firms' abnormal stock market returns accompanying the announcement of technology licensing deals. In particular, I examine the fit among firms' licensing activities, their resource endowments, and their industry context, and develop hypotheses on its impact on abnormal stock market returns after licensing deals. Analyzing 11 years of inward and outward licensing transactions in the US computer and pharmaceutical industries between 1990 and 2000, I find support for my argument that while firms profit from both inward and outward licensing, the magnitude of such profits is determined by licensing firms' resource endowments, and that these determinants have a different impact in different industry contexts. Understanding these relationships helps explain when firms should use licensing to exploit their proprietary technologies and make better predictions about the impact of licensing transactions on firm performance.     

Does engagement in corporate social responsibility provide strategic insurance‐like effects?

Research summary : This study examines whether the stock and bond prices of firms engaging in corporate social responsibility (CSR) can benefit from insurance‐like effects during occurrences of negative events. Our results suggest that in the face of negative events, engagement in CSR on a continuous, long‐term basis provides insurance‐like effects on both the stock and bond prices of firms. Nevertheless, the effects are found to quickly disappear following the occurrence of a second, or subsequent, negative event. Although our results clearly indicate that firms need to allocate some of their available resources to long‐term strategic CSR activities, managers must also realize that in a crisis communication, they will probably be able to use their CSR claims on one occasion only. Managerial summary : The purpose of this article is to examine whether firms engaging in corporate social responsibility (CSR) can benefit from insurance‐like effects during occurrences of negative events. We find that on the occurrence of a negative event, long‐term CSR engagement does have insurance‐like effects. We also find that these insurance‐like effects may quickly disappear following the occurrence of a second negative event. Managers of firms with a long history of CSR activities need to realize that in a crisis communication, they can probably use their claims of adherence to CSR only once. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Wealth Effects of Diversification and Financial Deal Structuring: Evidence from REIT Property Portfolio Acquisitions

This study examines the strategic characteristics and shareholder wealth effects of a popular vehicle for Real Estate Investment Trust growth in the 1990s: the acquisition of a portfolio of properties from a single seller. We examine a sample of 209 REIT portfolio acquisitions during 1995-2001. We observe a wide variety of financing strategies and find an array of different categories of sellers. Contrary to results reported in real estate transactions of this sort in the past, we find that announcement-period shareholder returns are significantly positive in the aggregate. We present evidence that excess returns to acquirers result from (1) wealth benefits received when companies reconfirm their geographical focus in the acquisition, (2) positive information conveyed by the use of project-specific private debt and (3) a positive signal sent to the market when transactions are financed by stock privately placed with financial institutions.     

REIT Stock Price Volatility and the Effects of Leverage

This article sheds light on several puzzling empirical observations. We examine the volatility implications of equity Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) stock returns over the sample period from January 1985 through October 2012. We find a negative “leverage effect” in the pre‐ and post‐Greenspan era, but not during the Greenspan era (circa 1994–2006). We argue that the positive elasticity of variance with respect to the value of equity during the Greenspan era can be explained by a decline in the spread between the yield on commercial mortgages and 10‐year Treasuries, which triggered a wealth transfer from REIT equity holders to REIT debt holders. We also argue that the declining commercial‐mortgage‐10‐year‐Treasury yield spread during the Greenspan era allowed REITs to take on far more risk than most people realized. We then document that average REIT stock return volatility increased significantly in the 2007–2010 period in the midst of a historic decline in REIT stock prices. The results have significant implications for the good deal of interest and debate in the media over the status of REITs and whether equity REITs have become excessively risky relative to the returns they generate.     

The structure of ownership and corporate acquisition strategies

In this study, we examine in an agency‐theoretic context the influence of executive equity stakes upon corporate strategy and firm value. We argue that beneficial, risk‐increasing corporate strategies may initially be emphasized but non‐value‐maximizing, risk‐reducing strategies may subsequently be emphasized as managers expand their stock ownership. We alternatively contend that stock options may have a consistently positive impact on firm risk taking and acquisition returns. The empirical findings are supportive of our expectations. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Reaction of Real Estate–Related Industries to the Monetary Policy Actions

We study the impact of changes in U.S. monetary policy on the equity returns of real estate–related industries. We find that, over the 1989–2005 sample period covered in our study, a hypothetical unexpected rate cut of 25 basis points (bps) is associated with an increase of about 170 bps in the value‐weighted returns of real estate–related industries. We find that monetary policy impacts the stock prices in real estate–related industries through its impact on the future expected stock returns and not on real interest rates or expected future dividends. There is also some evidence of asymmetry in the responses of the industry returns to the monetary policy actions. A strong stock price response to reversals in the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is reported.     

The Information Content of Method of Payment in Mergers: Evidence from Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)

We provide evidence on the information content of the method of payment in mergers by examining shareholder returns in a sample of REIT mergers over the period 1994–1998. When the target firm is publicly held, we find that transactions are always stock-financed, and that acquiring firm shareholders sustain small negative returns around the announcement date. When the target is privately held, cash financing, mixed (stock and cash) financing, and placement of blocks of acquirer stock with target owners are more prevalent. Acquirer returns are positive in stock-financed mergers when the target is private, which is consistent with both the information signaling and monitoring by blockholders hypotheses. Further analysis supports the information signaling hypothesis as the dominant explanation. The effects of other explanatory variables are similar whether the target is public or private. Most significantly, acquiring shareholder returns are negatively related to the acquirer's size, but positively related to the acquirer's use of the UPREIT organizational structure. The positive wealth effects of the UPREIT structure are not fully explained as the capitalization of tax benefits.     

When does a partner’s reputation impact cooperation effects in partnerships?

We examine how formal contracts moderate the relationship between a partner??s reputation and cooperation effects in public-private (P-P) partnerships. We base our analysis on differences between formal contracts, which require a series of legal agreements, and informal contracts, which may be implicit and/or unwritten. We argue that a partner??s reputation is more likely to impact cooperation effects in the context of strong formal or informal contracts. Using a sample of 244 partners from various P-P partnerships in the medical and healthcare fields in China, we find that the positive relationship between a partner??s reputation and cooperation effects is stronger given the existence of strong formal and/or informal contracts. We conclude that in China, where there is a weak legal system that rarely offers or enforces sufficient protections to contract signatories, it is safer to cooperate with a partner who has a good reputation. Such a reputation correspondingly enhances cooperation effects. Moreover, this relationship may be amplified when there are strong formal and/or informal contracts, all of which may be associated with cooperation between the public and private sectors.