Talking by numbers — Communicated uncertainty of the ECB

Using a novel approach, this paper analyses the deliberately communicated uncertainty of the ECB to the market. Specifi cally, it semantically analyses the uncertainty expressed in offi cial ECB press statements. The analysis shows how the ECB tries to alert or appease the market with different levels of communicated uncertainty. The appeasement through low uncertainty communication levels is particularly pronounced during times of fi nancial distress. Further, the analysis shows that the ECB tried to alert the market through an increasing level of communicated uncertainty prior to the outbreak of the global fi nancial crisis.     

Exchange market pressure,commodity prices,and contagion in Latin America

Over the past two decades, Latin American currencies have faced not only pressure to devalue but also periods of uncomfortable appreciation. Domestic macroeconomic factors, as well as global events and contagion, might bear part of the responsibility. This study constructs a monthly index of exchange market pressure (EMP) for four Latin American countries before using vector autoregressive methods to test the influence of commodity prices, macroeconomic variables, and external factors on each country's index. While inflation is an important determinant of EMP, we conclude that Chile and Peru are more likely than Mexico and Brazil to face pressure when commodity prices fall. This supports the idea that these two countries have “commodity currencies” and that their exchange markets are most vulnerable to international contagion.     

Automotive foreign direct investment in the United States: Economic and market consequences of globalization

This article examines the substantial growth of foreign direct investment into the United States by international (i.e., non-domestic) automotive firms over the past quarter century. Global macro-environmental factors influencing this investment are examined, as are the resulting impacts on numerous stakeholders including global automotive firms, consumers, and regional and state economies. The findings illustrate effective adaptive strategies that both automotive firms and economic development stakeholders follow in an increasingly global environment, resulting in significant economic, market, and quality-of-life benefits. The stakeholder perspective affords a more comprehensive view of globalization, forwarding a position counter to the protectionist viewpoint often espoused in business and popular culture.     

The international market selection of Chinese SMEs: How institutional influence overrides psychic distance

The purpose of this research is to contribute to the ongoing debate about whether psychic distance still plays a vital role in the internationalisation of SMEs from emerging markets. Drawing on the prior research which suggests the salient impact of institutional factors on internationalisation, we investigate the role of home country institutions in international market selection. Adopting a multi-case methodology, we collected semi-structured interview data from six small and medium-sized manufacturing firms in China. Our findings suggest that while psychic distance is still important in some circumstances, both formal institutions, such as government support, and informal institutions, such as business and political guanxi, enable Chinese SMEs to choose psychically distant markets. Our findings also indicate that informal institutions interact with formal institutions to further influence SMEs’ international market selection. This research contributes to SME internationalisation studies by revealing how formal and informal institutional factors override psychic distance in influencing international market selection.     

新形势下中小型外贸企业财务风险管理研究

随着人民币不断升值,汇率波动直接影响我国中小型外贸企业实际收汇,国内通货膨胀趋势明显,成本上升减少出口盈利,国际贸易保护主义抬头使中小型外贸企业因面临销售风险而遭受损失。宏观经济形势复杂,利率的波动增加了企业的筹资风险,国外进口商的信用缺失使中小型外贸企业坏账损失风险加大。中小型外贸企业应该采取加强出口结算方式的灵活性,利用金融衍生市场套期保值,多渠道、多方位拓展海外市场,提高风险意识,建立内部信用风险管理体系,拓展融资渠道,加强资金管理,合理运用出口信用保险,减少坏账损失等方法减少财务风险。     

风云2008 中国海关年度纪事

2008年是不平凡的一年,从春天的南方雪灾,夏天的汶川地震,秋初的奥运举办,到冬日的金融危机深度蔓延……一系列的大事件、一场场前所未有的考验,不断改变着这个世界大国的"心跳速率"。伴随着不平凡的年景,中国海关肩负重责,用自己的实际行动为通关保驾护航,与全国人民共渡难关、共迎挑战。关员们用坚守岗位、奋发工作践行着对海关事业的热爱和对祖国的忠诚……     

Dismantling institutional complexity behind international competitiveness of emerging market firms

The paper examines the perceived role of emerging market institutions in the creation of firm‐specific advantages of local small‐ and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs) supporting international expansion and competitiveness. Our objective is to deepen conceptual understanding of the complex link between emerging market institutional factors and an ability of emerging market SMEs to compete internationally. Our empirical evidence from Russian software SMEs operating in global niche markets reveals that managers perceive institutional influence on their firms' ability to compete internationally in a number of direct and indirect means. We find that, in addition to the well acknowledged negative impact of institutions, there are supportive and triggering forces that incentivize SMEs' international expansion and development of competitive advantages. We contribute to the literature by elaborating about the complexity of institutional influence on international competitiveness of emerging market SMEs. This research offers insights for managers about the prospects of international expansion of SMEs from emerging markets.     

汇率制度改革下商业银行外汇风险管理对策分析

商业银行既是经营外汇业务的中心,又是自负盈亏的经济主体,汇率制度的改革必然会给商业银行的资本充足率、资产负债业务和外汇产品销售带来一定的影响。商业银行要增强对外汇风险的管理意识,调整外汇资产负债的币种结构,优化贷款的行业和客户结构,积极开发和创新外汇避险和外汇理财产品,以不断增强商业银行自身抵御外汇风险的能力。     

How to combat NEET? Evidence from Austria

The number young people not in education, employment or training (NEET) has been rising since the beginning of the economic and fi nancial crisis in 2008. This article contributes to the discussion about the reduction of the NEET rate by addressing the questions: Which structural factors can explain differences in the NEET rates among Austrian federal states? What causes an increased or reduced NEET risk at the individual level? What are the key factors for an exit from a NEET situation?     

Ein Länderfi nanzausgleich ohne Berlin — Gewinner und Verlierer

The author simulates the federal fi nancial equalisation system in Germany without Berlin with respect to the adjustment year 2011. The model assumes that the capital city is compensated by the distribution of value added tax (VAT). Hence winners as well as losers can be identifi ed at both stages of adjustment within the federal fi nancial equalisation system. The result clarifi es the position of Hesse and Bavaria, which intend to take legal action against the German federal fi nancial equalisation system. In particular these two German states should not push for the exclusion of Berlin in this context. Otherwise the scenario would lead to considerable losses for both states.     

Überschreitet die EZB mit ihren Staatsanleihekäufen ihr Mandat?

The ECB’s government bond purchases have become an issue for the German constitutional court. The authors see the OMT programme as falling within the bounds of its mandate but call for the ECB’s crisis policies to be strictly temporary. They argue that the OMT programme was necessary to safeguard fi nancial stability and that it does not endanger price stability in the short term. Moreover, they present evidence for the breakdown of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the crisis countries and argue that the conditions for forbidden monetary government fi nancing are not met — provided the ECB sticks to certain conditions. Particularly, the ECB’s government bond purchases must maintain a clear distinction between the primary market and a functioning secondary market.     

Exchange Rate Effects on Domestic Prices in Bulgaria and Poland: Progress in Making Markets?

The economic liberalization which has occurred in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) over the past 15 years generally has involved establishing domestic markets and privatizing state‐owned firms, both with the intention of integrating the CEE economies into the global economy and allowing the benefits of competition to be realized. We explore how well this has been accomplished in two countries, Poland and Bulgaria, and the domestic conditions that contribute to its accomplishment. The sensitivity of domestic markets to international shocks, as reflected in exchange rate effects on domestic prices, may be viewed as an indicator of how integrated a country’s markets are into the global economy, and a proxy for competition in those markets. In explaining variation in exchange‐rate pass‐through, we examine the impact of market structure, economic liberalization and infrastructure as factors contributing to the development of competitive markets. We find that although integration into global markets can significantly increase market competitiveness, domestic factors also play a significant role.     

Deutschlands Exportüberschuss auf dem Weg zu neuen Höchstständen — eine Projektion bis 2017

The economic and fi nancial crisis in 2009 triggered a stronger collapse in German exports compared to imports, with the high external surplus falling considerably. By now, global trade has recovered. The authors have calculated trends in German foreign trade, using a gravitation model. Based on IMF forecasts of global economic performance, the projections show that Germany’s export surplus looks set to reach new highs in the medium term.     

A Framework for Assessing Global Imbalances1

Since the mid‐1990s and prior to the financial crisis external balances of systemically important economies widened significantly. This paper takes a long‐run perspective and reviews the main determinants of widening global imbalances. To this aim, we first provide a set of newly derived statistical measures: while large external imbalances are not new in economic history, their persistence, their concentration on one economy (the United States) and the specific role of emerging market economies make the present episode rather unique. Second, we argue that the observed pattern of imbalances can be mostly understood as a result of various structural changes in the global economy, which have allowed a widening trend of external positions. Three main features set the most recent period apart from past episodes of growing external imbalances: (i) the emergence of new players, in particular emerging market economies such as China and India, which are quickly catching up with the advanced economies; (ii) an unprecedented wave of financial globalisation, with more integrated global financial markets and increasing opportunities for international portfolio diversification, also characterised by considerable asymmetries in the level of market completeness across countries; and (iii) the favourable global macroeconomic and financial environment, with record high global growth rates in recent years, low financial market volatility and easy global financing conditions over a long period of time, running until the outburst of the financial crisis during the summer of 2007. These structural changes that have been supplemented by cyclical or policy‐induced factors ultimately facilitated the sudden, disorderly unwinding of global imbalances that is reflected in the current financial crisis.     

Domestic market context and international entrepreneurs’ relationship portfolios

The importance of relationships to international entrepreneurs’ internationalization is well recognized, but we still know little concerning how entrepreneurs find, develop and use different types of relationships for their internationalization. In a study based on international entrepreneurship and network theories, we examine how having or not having a domestic market affects the relationship portfolios developed by born global software entrepreneurs. We find it profoundly influences the personal relationship strength they seek in new international relationships, and their activeness towards developing new relationships that are embedded in foreign markets. Further, the analytical model we develop shows how and why the presence of a domestic market influences international entrepreneurs’ portfolios of relationships.     

人民币在“一带一路”货币圈影响力分析——信息溢出效应及其作用渠道

本文运用溢出指数方法,定量测度了人民币与“一带一路”沿线主要货币汇率之间的溢出效应及其动态演化,并采用系统GMM方法,探究人民币汇率净溢出效应的作用渠道。研究发现:近年来人民币与“一带一路”沿线主要货币汇率之间的溢出效应在波动中有所提高,随着“一带一路”倡议的深入实施,人民币汇率净溢出效应逐步提升,在该区域的影响力逐渐增强。在“一带一路”区域内,人民币在亚洲和非洲地区的影响力较强,且对阿联酋迪拉姆和安哥拉宽扎的净溢出效应已超过欧元、英镑和日元等主要国际货币。在净溢出效应的作用渠道方面,“一带一路”国家对中国贸易附加值依存度对其有利,而人民币汇率市场化改革、第三方市场贸易竞争、全球商品价格指数和全球风险指数却对其不利。因此,应加强中国在“一带一路”区域价值链的主导能力和商品竞争能力,加速推动“一带一路”区域内的离岸人民币金融市场建设,加强人民币汇率的区域性风险管理。     

Determining investment size and local embeddedness under host market uncertainty and growth rates

This study employs a growth options perspective to examine how multinational corporations (MNCs) design their investment attributes under the influence of host market uncertainty and growth rates. It specifically examines MNCs’ decisions on investment size and local embeddedness under host market conditions. Using data on Korean overseas manufacturing subsidiaries, we find that MNCs choose either more-local-embedded small investments or less-locally-embedded large investments under high demand uncertainty and GDP growth rates. We also find that this choice is moderated by host market political risk and competition. Our findings imply that MNCs consider both uncertainty-driven flexibility and growth rate-induced commitment when selecting international investment modes. This consideration allows MNCs to gain flexibility as well as an enhanced ability to expand in the future. This study contributes to the literature on real options and entry modes in the international business area by showing how host market conditions and investment decisions are related.     

Mexico's integration into the North American capital market

We explore a model of time varying regional market integration that includes three factors for the North American equity market, the local Mexican equity market and the peso/dollar exchange rate. We argue that a useful instrument for the degree of integration is the sovereign yield spread. Applying our methodology to Mexico over the 1991–2002 period, we show that the degree of market integration was higher at the end of the period than at the beginning but that it exhibited wide swings that were related to both global as well as local events. We also discover that Mexico's currency risk is priced. Further, the currency returns process reveals strongly significant asymmetric volatility that is strongly related to the asymmetric volatility of the Mexican equity market returns process. A plausible reason for these results is that currency devaluations in emerging markets like Mexico can cause default-risk crises in local banking systems that mismatch local-currency assets and hard currency liabilities, whereas appreciations produce no such problems. Devaluations that destabilize banking systems are, therefore, more likely than appreciations to increase the volatilities of both the currency's and the equity market's returns.     

Contextualizing international strategy by emerging market firms: A composition-based approach

We present a composition-based logic toward international expansion by emerging market firms (EMFs) – firms that use compositional investment, compositional competition, and compositional collaboration to create a unique competitive advantage in global competition. This view explains how EMFs creatively adopt a composition-based international strategy, enabling them to compensate for their weaknesses while capitalizing on their strengths during global competition where they offer a competitive price-value ratio suited to mass global customers who are cost sensitive. We also explicated the working conditions (i.e., strategic resource-seeking motivation, subsidiary autonomy delegation, and cross-border sharing system) that fortify the outcome of composition. Using survey data from 201 EMFs, our analysis supports these key arguments. A composition-based lens provides a new understanding of why and how emerging market businesses can survive in international competition for some period of time without possessing traditionally defined monopolistic advantages.     

How emerging market governments promote outward FDI: Experience from China

Large scale outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) by emerging market enterprises has become common in today's business world. Nested within the political economy perspective, this article elucidates why and how emerging market governments enthusiastically stimulate OFDI. Drawing upon our detailed analysis of the Chinese context, we developed the logic that OFDI promotion policies set by emerging market governments are economically imperative and institutionally complementary to offsetting competitive disadvantages of emerging market enterprises in global competition. This study presents the governmental institutions that impact Chinese OFDI, discusses evolutionary changes of OFDI policies, and describes current policies and measures that stimulate Chinese companies to expand into the global market. This article concludes with theoretical and managerial discussions wherein we call for convergence between two seemingly paradoxical views – institutional escapism and governmental promotion – presently used as an institutional logic explicating international expansion of emerging market enterprises.