Economies of traffic density and scale in the integrated air cargo industry: The cost structures of FedEx Express and UPS Airlines

This paper examines the cost structures of the leading integrated air cargo carriers, FedEx Express and UPS Airlines. A total cost model is estimated for the two carriers using quarterly data on domestic operations and costs over a nine-year period (2003–2011). The estimated model indicates that the integrated industry exhibits increasing returns to traffic density and constant returns to scale. Accounting for carrier-specific differences in cost structure and network size, FedEx Express is found to be more cost-efficient than UPS Airlines. Looking at the carriers individually, UPS Airlines exhibits substantial economies of traffic density and constant returns to scale while FedEx Express' cost structure is characterized by weak economies of density and constant returns to scale. The combined effect of returns to density and returns to scale on the cost structures of integrated carriers is captured by economies of size. Both FedEx Express and UPS Airlines exhibit economies of size, indicating that carriers in the integrated industry can be more cost efficient by making appropriate adjustments to their network size as their output grows. Moreover, the relative cost-efficiencies of the carriers are reversed when their network-size differences are not controlled.     

Multi-period efficiency and productivity changes in US domestic airlines

This study tracked the static efficiency and dynamic productivity changes of 14 US airlines from 2006 to 2015. Moreover, we estimated the principal economic drivers of the environmental variables to increase the US domestic airlines' efficiency using the double bootstrap regression analysis. The major aspects of this study are as follows: First, network legacy carriers have the highest efficiency, whereas low-cost carriers are lowest. Nonetheless, network legacy carriers still have room to improve scale inefficiency. Second, the fluctuations in technical change, rather than in efficiency change, tended to have greater effect on the fluctuation of Malmquist productivity index for US domestic airlines. Third, M&A between US airlines have both positive and negative effects in terms of efficiency and economies of scale. Fourth, cost environmental factors have a negative effect on US airlines' efficiency, while revenue factor is a positive effect. The results of this study may help US airline industry practitioners to understand the US domestic airline environment from an operator's perspective.     

The European airline industry. A banker''s view

For those institutions which finance the aerospace industries, it is useful to estimate what the consequences will be of the present liberalisation process which has beset the European airline industry. Consequently ABN AMRO Bank is in the process of developing a model which analyses those factors which are crucial to the survival of an airline. These so called critical success factors appeared to be: financial strength, cost structure, domestic market, size of operations, internationalisation and political support. When we applied these factors to the European airline industry, we found that only a limited number of airlines stand a fair chance of surviving the anticipated restructuring process as an independent carrier. Several carriers will either have to merge with stronger partners or they face bankruptcy. Based on the critical success factors, the larger northern carriers enjoy the strongest positions. From amongst the southern airlines, those with a large domestic market and strong political support have a chance to survive, provided they will be able to adjust their cost structure in time.     

The transformation of a legacy carrier – A case study of Turkish Airlines

This study examines the metronomic rise of Turkish Airlines into a global carrier in the period following domestic deregulation and part privatisation. Using a comparative assessment of the carrier's network and its competitive strategies during the 2003–2013/2014 period it was found that Turkish Airlines now benefits from considerable network, cost, service and brand advantages over competing European and to a lesser extent Middle-Eastern airlines. Its network operation based in Istanbul Ataturk airport enjoys strong geographic and demographic advantages, which enables it to optimise the use of its large and young short-haul fleet between a significant number of domestic and international points. This study has important implications for partially or fully state owned legacy carriers as to how to gain competitive advantages in an increasingly open and liberal airline industry.     

Domestic codesharing practices in the US airline industry

This paper documents some stylized facts about domestic codesharing practices in the US airline industry. It is demonstrated that unlike international codesharing, the majority of domestic codeshare tickets do not combine the networks of two carriers. Rather, most codeshare tickets between major US carriers are virtual in nature, whereby one carrier sells tickets on flights operated entirely by another carrier. Moreover, we show that the price of these virtual tickets are, on average, less than those operated and marketed by a single carrier.     

Price rivalry in airline markets: a study of a successful strategy of a network carrier against a low-cost carrier

In the post-liberalization period, competition has increased in airline markets. In this context, network carriers have two alternative strategies to compete with low-cost carriers. First, they may establish a low-cost subsidiary. Second, they may try to reduce costs using the main brand. This paper examines a successful strategy of the first type implemented by Iberia in the Spanish domestic market. Our analysis of data and the estimation of a pricing equation show that Iberia has been able to charge lower prices than rivals with its low-cost subsidiary. The pricing policy of the Spanish network carrier has been particularly aggressive on less dense routes and shorter routes.     

Evolving competition between low-cost carriers and full-service carriers: The case of South Korea

This study explores the impact of domestic low-cost carriers (LCCs) on regional tourism and aviation industries. In particular, it articulates the changing competitive dynamics between LCCs and full-service carriers (FSCs). The Lotka-Volterra (LV) model, utilising the newly proposed moving-window concept, is used for the assessment of the influence of LCCs on the South Korean and airline industry. Analysis results demonstrate that the competitive dynamics between LCCs and FSCs are not static and have evolved over time. The study proposes an efficient and effective change analysis and enables strategic planning for aviation industries.     

Relevance of route and network profitability analysis for the network management process of network carriers

Route profitability analysis (RPA) and network profitability analysis (NPA) represent common approaches to measure the profitability of flights in the airline industry. Scientific discussion, however, lacks an in-depth understanding of their impact on the network management process or of their implementation throughout the industry and their design. Here we analyze RPA and NPA and evaluate their potential influence on network management-related decision making. We argue that both approaches vary in applicability and suitability according to airline business models (i.e. network carriers, point-to-point carriers). Furthermore, we present the findings of a study among the top 100 network carriers worldwide on the relevance of RPA and NPA. Results indicate a wide implementation of RPA and to a lesser degree of NPA. In addition, the sophistication of the profitability analysis and the application of the retrieved profitability data for planning purposes differ considerably between airlines.     

The application of a neural network approach to predicting bankruptcy risks facing the major US air carriers: 1979–1996

Airline bankruptcy, an unheard of event prior to the deregulation of the US airline industry, has become rather commonplace. Over 123 air carriers have filed receivership since 1982, and several large carriers have sought court protection more than once in the past decade. In spite of record airline profits over the past two years, the financial condition of many carriers still remains fragile. The huge financing requirements of the industry over the next decade, driven by the carriers’ need to replace aging fleets of aircraft, will create further stress for many. The ability to assess the level of this financial stress is important to many groups, including stockholders, bondholders, other creditors, financial analysts, governmental regulatory bodies, and the general public. For this reason, models that can forecast financial distress are useful. Building on prior research by several of the authors, who utilized multiple discriminant models driven by financial ratios, a neural network approach is employed to increase the reliability of the forecasts. In this paper, a neural net is trained with the result that it successfully classifies 26 out of 26 carriers in the holdout (test) set.     

The evolving landscape of Chinese aviation policies and impact of a deregulating environment on Chinese carriers

This paper examines the recent developments of China’s aviation polices focusing on airline consolidation, the opening up of the domestic aviation market, and the adoption of more liberal international aviation policy. It then goes onto assess the impacts of the above policies on the industry structure, the performance of major airlines, and the competitiveness of Chinese airlines in international markets. The study shows that the industry became more competitive following the opening up of the domestic aviation market. Although major airlines saw an increase in passenger volume and an improvement in load factors, the falling yield and rising costs make them difficult to grow profitably. Moreover, Chinese airlines largely failed to capitalise on building an international network and the majors were weak in international competition. Strategic use of aviation policy to build a strong and profitable airline industry is still a formidable task lying ahead for policymakers.     

Aviation and the environment in the context of the EU–US Open Skies agreement

We examine the impacts of the EU–US Open Skies agreement on the environment on emissions from the aviation sector. We use the Hamburg Tourism Model of domestic and international tourist numbers and flows, to estimate these impacts. The Open Aviation Area will result in increased competition between carriers and falls in the cost of transatlantic flights. This will not only have implications for the size and structure of the industry but also for climate policy. The paper assesses what effects the expected increases in passenger numbers will have on CO₂ emissions and tests whether this increase in travel will result in a corresponding rise in emissions. Simulations show that passenger numbers arriving from the US to the EU will increase by between 1% and 14% depending on the magnitude of the price reductions because of substitution between destinations, the percentage increase in global emissions is much smaller (max. 1%) than the increase in cross-Atlantic traffic.     

The spatial configuration of airline networks in Europe

The deregulation of US domestic passenger aviation in 1978 resulted in the reconfiguration of airline networks into radial route systems, spatially concentrated around a small number of central airports or ‘hubs’. This paper investigates whether a similar spatial concentration trend can be observed in the European aviation network after deregulation at the airline network level. Using the network concentration index, it is demonstrated that European ‘flag carriers’ already showed a very high traffic concentration rate at the beginning of deregulation. Between 1990 and 1999, the distribution of European traffic of these carriers remained remarkably stable according to the network concentration index. A spatial concentration trend of European traffic on a small number of hubs can only be observed for some regional airlines.     

The emergence and effects of the ultra-low cost carrier (ULCC) business model in the U.S. airline industry

The effects of “low cost carriers” (LCCs) such as Southwest Airlines and JetBlue Airways on the competitive landscape of the U.S. airline industry have been thoroughly documented in the academic literature and the popular press. However, the more recent emergence of another distinct airline business model—the “ultra low cost carrier” (ULCC)—has received considerably less attention. By focusing on cost efficiencies and unbundled service offerings, the ULCCs have been able to undercut the fares of both traditional network and low-cost carriers in the markets they serve.In this paper, we conduct an analysis of ULCCs in the U.S. aviation industry and demonstrate how these carriers' business models, costs, and effects on air transportation markets differ from those of the traditional LCCs. We first describe the factors that have enabled ULCCs to achieve a cost advantage over traditional LCCs and network legacy carriers. Then, using econometric models, we examine the effects of ULCC and LCC presence, entry, and exit on base airfares in 3,004 U.S. air transportation markets from 2010 to 2015. We find that in 2015, ULCC presence in a market was associated with market base fares 21% lower than average, as compared to an 8% average reduction for LCC presence. We also find that while ULCC and LCC entry both result in a 14% average reduction in fares one year after entry, ULCCs are three times as likely to abandon a market within two years of entry than are the LCCs. The results suggest that the ULCCs represent a distinct business model from traditional LCCs and that as the ULCCs grow, they will continue to play a unique and increasingly important role in the U.S. airline industry.     

Clustered airline flight scheduling: Evidence from airline deregulation in Korea

This paper explores the impacts of competition level on airline scheduling in the Korean domestic short-haul routes where a hub-and-spoke system is not the optimal air transport network strategy. The empirical findings using the Korean airline panel data for the period 2006–2010 suggest that competition leads to less differentiated departure flight times as expected from spatial competition theory. Unlike the previous study on the U.S airline industry, the degree of this tendency for less differentiation differs across the type of routes: the Jeju island routes (leisure type) and the inland routes (business type), in the deregulated period. Following the May 2008 Deregulation Act we find an increasingly clustered pattern of airline scheduling in the Jeju island routes where there have been competitive pressures associated with new low cost entrants. This recent evidence would imply that airline carriers strategically schedule departure flight times and allocate flights between routes as competition increases in the deregulated period.     

Measuring the LCC effect on charter airlines in the Spanish airport system

Using a robust transfer function model methodology, the present paper seeks to offer empirical evidence regarding the size and type of effects that low-cost carriers (LCCs) have had on traffic for charter carriers (CCs) in the Spanish airport system by geographic market. We show an unmistakable substitution relationship between CCs and LCCs in the latter's typical niche markets, national and European flights, while there is no reaction from the CCs in the segment of international flights outside the EU. Furthermore, substitution effects are smaller between CCs and LCCs on the domestic level than effects between LCCs and network carriers (NCs) and slightly larger on the European level. Lastly, CC traffic's different sensitivity to terrorist attacks, day of the week, air accidents and the economic crisis is also evident. CCs should therefore be considered an independent category that warrants individualized analyses.     

Customer value of purchasable supplementary services: The case of a European full network carrier's economy class

There is a general trend in the airline industry to try to find ways to generate ancillary revenue by offering additional or unbundled services. Low-cost carriers in particular are known to offer unbundled services, but only a few network carriers have started to unbundle their services and seek ancillary revenues. Meanwhile, others do not attempt this, due to a possible negative impact on customer perception and their brand image.The goal of this study is to determine the viability and customer value of purchasable supplementary services for economy class passengers of European full-service network carriers. The focus of the study lies in determining specific characteristics of the customer value concept in the context of purchasable supplementary services. By conducting a choice model the implicit preferences in regard to purchasable supplementary service of economy class passengers were analysed. A survey was conducted at Zurich Airport in Switzerland and the results and analysis were built on the data of 249 respondents. The results show that economy class passengers do perceive value in purchasable supplementary services and display a general intention to purchase such services provided they give the passenger added value and utility.     

Innovation: The winning formula to regain profitability in aviation?

Most airlines have overcome the immediate effects of the recent global aviation crisis partly because of economic upturn and partly because of massive restructuring. Legacy network carriers had to take on the challenge of low-cost carriers, and regain competitiveness in short- and mid-haul business through considerable cost cutting and more flexible pricing models and are now profitable. On the other hand, many airlines do not make a reasonable profit, and the majority of carriers do not earn their capital cost. Airlines claim that they are still squeezed between their neighbors in the aviation value chain that leverage local monopolies (such as airports) or oligopolies (such as aircraft equipment manufacturers). Many legacy carriers, however, have not properly prepared for an era of deregulated and changing markets. They have not yet taken appropriate steps to escape from there positions between the few successful premium carriers and low-cost carriers. This middle position has little differentiation potential, an unsatisfactory growth perspective, and poor profitability prospects. Further, despite ongoing liberalization, the regulatory framework still does not enforce far-reaching consolidation, leaving the industry in a fragmented status with massive overcapacities. Consequently, the industry needs to further leverage external deregulation as well as internal restructuring to establish more efficient and competitive business models. Aside from basic cost cutting, innovation may become the decisive driver of progress, comprising advanced business models, customer segmentation, and technologies (Franke, M., 2006. Innovation: the winning formula to regain profitability in aviation? Speech at the Hamburg Aviation Conference, Hamburg).     

Evolution of global airline strategic alliance and consolidation in the twenty-first century

Global airline strategic alliances have emerged since the late 1980s, and their number has slowly risen through the years. Will the number of such alliances continue to proliferate? Or will airlines consolidate with one another to form mega-carriers? In this paper, the likelihood of various airline consolidation and alliance development possibilities was examined based on a number of high-level trends and forces. The most probable near-term industry alliance and consolidation structure is described, accompanied with a probable path of evolution. These predictions have important implications for managers of strategic alliances, carriers who are currently in an alliance as well as carriers who are planning to join one.     

A less-than-truckload carrier collaboration planning problem under dynamic capacities

This paper addresses the deterministic dynamic single carrier collaboration problem for the small- to medium-sized less-than-truckload (LTL) industry. It is formulated as a binary (0–1) multi-commodity minimum cost flow problem and solved using a branch-and-cut algorithm. Its inherent network structure is exploited to generate the lower bounds to the branch-and-cut algorithm using the network simplex method and by relaxing the integrality constraints. Results from numerical experiments indicate inherent trade-offs at the higher degrees of collaboration between waiting for more affordable collaborative capacity and incurring higher holding costs. They also suggest that collaborating LTL carriers experience increased capacity utilization.     

The carbon emissions of selected airlines and aircraft types in three geographic markets

Various carbon calculators developed by airlines and carbon offset companies have become available since the environmental impact of the air transport industry started to receive strong attention. This paper details a prototype methodology for carbon calculation emission levels in the three air transport markets; the UK domestic routes, the intra-EU routes serving UK and the North Atlantic routes that enables the assessment of key environmental performance differences between air carriers whereas they would be measured as identical using the often used DEFRA-type measurement approach. The results show differences in airlines' strategies such as aircraft type used, load factors and seat configurations.