The impact of individual and institutional investor sentiment on the market price of risk

We examine the effect of individual and institutional investor sentiment on the market price of risk derived from DJIA and S&P500 index returns. Consistent with behavioral asset pricing models, we find significant positive response of rational sentiment suggesting greater incentive for rational investors to engage in arbitrage when the compensation for taking risk is greater. Further, an increase in irrational optimism leads to a significant downward movement, but an increase in rational sentiment does not lead to a significant change market price of risk. These results are robust for both market indexes, DJIA and S&P500 and for both individual and institutional investor sentiment.     

Individual stock crowded trades,individual stock investor sentiment and excess returns

Recent behavioral asset pricing models and the popular press suggest that investors may follow similar strategies resulting in crowded equity positions to push prices further away from fundamentals. This paper develops a new approach to measure individual stock crowded trades, and further investigates the joint effects of individual stock crowded trades and individual stock investor sentiment on excess returns. Specifically, our results show that the combined effect of individual stock crowded trades and individual stock investor sentiment on excess returns is positive and significant, which reveals the importance of “anomaly factors” in asset pricing. Furthermore, our results suggest that increasing individual stock buyer-initiated crowded trades will increase excess returns simultaneously; however, increasing individual stock seller-initiated crowded trades will decrease excess returns simultaneously. Collectively, our results highlight the importance of individual stock crowded trades and individual stock investor sentiment on the formation of stock prices.     

Assessing the reversal of investor sentiment

Assessing the reversal of sentiment in stock markets is needed because, according to the social mood cycle, the change of social mood over time is an antecedent of price movements. The purpose of this study is to empirically assess reversal of investor sentiment, to show the phases of social mood cycle from increasing mood to decreasing mood, and to explain the dynamic change in market inefficiency from increasing to decreasing. Growth modeling, developed particularly for dealing with the change over time, is used in this study for assessing the reversal of investor sentiment. The autocovariance structure of errors and the variances/covariances of the random coefficients are all taken into account in the model. The results have indicated that the change in investor sentiment over time is inverted U-shaped for the entire market. Moreover, arbitrage constraint and stock characteristics exert a joint moderating effect on sentiment reversal. Less arbitrage constraint can strengthen sentiment reversal only when the market for individual stocks is dominated by noise traders. Based on the results obtained, we discuss asset pricing, liquidity management, and market intervention.     

Bounded rationality,anchoring-and-adjustment sentiment,and asset pricing

This paper presents a framework that incorporates an investor’s limited attention and anchoring and adjustment sentiment and their joint effects on asset pricing, with endogenous cost of neglecting part of the dividends and the asymmetric rationality levels of investors. We find that the combined effect of the two bounded rationality factors is often embodied in the “loss”, and the retail investors are insensitive to market sentiment and forced to pay more cognitive loss. A higher level of investor rationality and bullish market sentiment will jointly increase demand and then prices, while the effects of different bounded rationality factors are asymmetric.     

The impact of individual investor trading on information asymmetry in the Korean stock market

This paper examines the impact of individual investor trading on information asymmetry in the market. In particular, we examine the relationship between the trading volume by individual investors and the corresponding bid-ask spread in the Korean stock market, where the majority of the trading activity is driven by individual investors and therefore information asymmetry can be evident. We find that high trading activity by individual investors increases the bid-ask spread in a short investment horizon, suggesting that individual investors, as uninformed and unsophisticated traders, amplify the degree of information asymmetry in the market through trading.     

The sentiment pricing dynamics with short-term and long-term learning

Combining the behavioral characteristics of rational uninformed investors with learning information behavior of sentiment investors, this paper establishes a mathematical model about the impact of learning information behavior on the investor's transaction and asset equilibrium price under asymmetric information. Research shows that when rational uninformed investors learn information in the short term, on the one hand, they choose to bet against sentiment investors, thus reducing the influence of sentiment; on the other hand, they occasionally mistake sentiment for information to chase sentiment investors, then amplifying sentiment shocks. Furthermore, sentiment investors can also gain valuable information indirectly by observing the price in the long term. When sentiment investors learn information in the long term, the price fluctuations caused by sentiment and information, informativeness of the price system and market efficiency are no longer dependent on the quality of information.     

How money illusions and heterogeneous beliefs affect asset prices

We develop a dynamic asset pricing model with two investors with money illusions and heterogeneous beliefs about some aspects of the economy. The model is tractable and delivers closed forms for all equilibrium quantities. The study shows that money illusion leads the nominal shock risk to generate spillover effects on the real side of the economy and affects all equilibrium quantities, even without inflation disagreement. We find that bond yields increase, but the stock price decreases, as money illusion increases. Bond yield and stock price volatilities increase with fundamental disagreement, while the latter decreases with inflation disagreement. We also discover that the stock risk premium is inverse-U shaped as inflation disagreement increases. Moreover, we find that the optimistic investor holds positions in real bonds and stocks, and shorts the nominal bond to hedge against the risk of market changes, which is in line with the pessimistic investor’s beliefs.     

Excess co-movement of agricultural futures prices: Perspective from contagious investor sentiment

This study investigates the excess co-movement of agricultural futures prices from a new perspective of contagious investor sentiment. This study shows that contagious investor sentiment is a key determinant of excess co-movement of agricultural futures prices, by using contagious investor sentiment among different agricultural futures. Further, this study decomposes contagious investor sentiment into expected and unexpected contagious investor sentiment. Results show that both of them can positively affect excess co-movement of agricultural futures prices. More interestingly, expected contagious investor sentiment outperforms unexpected contagious investor sentiment in soybean 1 future, soymeal future, and strong wheat future. In general, the results of this study can provide strong support for the significant roles of contagious investor sentiment in asset pricing applications.     

The impact of investor structure on stock price crash sensitivity: Evidence from China's stock market

Stock price crash sensitivity refers to the conditional probability of a stock crash when the market collapses. It focuses on individual stocks' sensitivity to the market crash and can affect stock pricing significantly. Although the crash sensitivity of China's stock market is very high as a whole (Weigert, 2016), different individual stocks show varying degrees of crash sensitivity. This paper, adopting the perspective of institutional investors, explores the reasons for the difference in crash sensitivity in China's stock market, and finds that: First, institutional investors' shareholdings is positively related to firms' stock price crash sensitivity. However, after dividing institutional investors into professional (represented by financial institutions) and non-professional institutional investors (represented by general legal persons), we find that only professional institutional investors' shareholdings is negatively related to firms' stock price crash sensitivity. Second, the impact of professional institutional investors on the crash sensitivity is influenced by stock liquidity and media sentiment: when the stock liquidity of listed companies is good or the media sentiment is strong, the negative impact of professional institutional investors on the crash sensitivity is accordingly high. This paper, by highlighting the investor structure, attempts a pioneering exploration of the influencing factors of the difference in stock price crash sensitivity in China. Our empirical results enrich research on stock price crash sensitivity and the heterogeneity of institutional investors. They can also serve to guide regulatory authorities' development of institutional investors and efforts to maintain market stability.     

An equilibrium model of insider trading in continuous time

We study a Bayesian–Nash equilibrium model of insider trading in continuous time. The supply of the risky asset is assumed to be stochastic. This supply can be interpreted as noise from nonrational traders (noise traders). A rational informed investor (the insider) has private information on the growth rate of the dividend flow rewarded by the risky asset. She is risk averse and maximizes her inter-temporal utility rate over an infinite time-horizon. The market is cleared by a risk neutral market maker who sets the price of the risky asset competitively as the conditional present value of future dividends, given the information supplied by the dividend history and the cumulative order flow. Due to the presence of noise traders, the market demand does not fully reveal the insider’s private information, which slowly becomes incorporated in prices. An interesting result of the paper is that a nonstandard linear filtering procedure gives an a priori form for the equilibrium strategy to be postulated. We show the existence of a stationary linear equilibrium where the insider acts strategically by taking advantage of the camouflage provided by the noise which affects the market maker’s estimates on private information. In this equilibrium, we find that the insider’s returns on the stock are uncorrelated over long periods of time. Finally, we show that the instantaneous variance of the price under asymmetric information lies between the instantaneous variance of the price under complete and incomplete information. The converse inequalities hold true for the unconditional variance of the price.     

The Russia–Ukraine conflict and investor psychology in financial markets

This study examines the effect of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on global financial markets and the resulting changes in investor psychology. We have analysed weekly data from January 2021 to March 2023, including indicators such as gross national income, Bitcoin historical price, Standard and Poor 500 index, US consumer price index, US dollar index, and investor psychology index, using a variety of econometric techniques. Our findings reveal a positive and significant correlation between investor psychology and market returns. These results highlight the importance of monitoring investor psychology during times of conflict as it can greatly impact investment decisions in financial markets, providing valuable insights for investors and policymakers.     

Heterogenous beliefs with sentiments and asset pricing

We present a dynamic equilibrium model with two irrational investors: an extrapolator and a contrarian, whose beliefs regarding the growth rate of dividend stream are biased by their sentiments. The key contribution is to connect two disagreements with the degree of irrationality of investors and to provide novel insights into the predictability of stock return. We show that the higher level of sentiment disagreement is, the more stock price is overvalued. However, the future stock price will decline because the extrapolator’s sentiment will cool down over time. Therefore, the sentiment disagreement negatively predicts future return. At the meanwhile, our model not only shows that the survey expectations about cashflows increase the variations in asset price and dampen the corresponding volatility, but also helps to explain the mixed results about the relationship between the investors’ belief dispersions and stock return predictability.     

自媒体帮助控股股东在定向增发中获利了吗？

考察了上市公司控股股东如何利用自媒体信息披露在定向增发融资中调节股价的变化,从而获取额外收益的过程。研究发现：控股股东为使定向增发融资顺利进行,倾向于在定向增发准备期频繁发布自媒体信息,以抬高股价吸引外部投资者关注,并且当发行对象不包括控股股东时,通过发布自媒体信息来抬高股价的行为会更加显著;而在定增新股定价期间,定向增发对象包括控股股东的上市公司却会显著减少自媒体信息发文数量,以压低股票价格,帮助控股股东以较低对价购入定增股票。进一步分析发现：上市公司中机构投资者持股对控股股东定价期间压低股价的行为具有显著抑制作用。从自媒体信息披露这一崭新视角切入,证实了我国上市公司控股股东在定向增发过程中既有通过自媒体信息披露使定向增发吸引关注、满足融资需求的动机,又有利用自媒体信息披露降低控股股东参与定向增发的成本、对自身进行利益输送的动机;而机构投资者能够有效监督这一过程中大股东的利己行为。研究结论为加强对上市公司在定向增发中信息披露的监管,保护中小投资者利益提供了有益的启示。     

创业板投资者情绪及其收益率相关性研究

本文采用向量自回归模型VAR方法分别研究了我国主板市场与创业板市场投资者情绪与收益率之间影响是系。研究发现我国主板市场中投资者情绪对收益率有显著影响,而收益率对投资者情绪无显著影响;而创业板市场表现不同,投资者情绪对收益率无显著相关影响。研究表明:出现上述现象的原因是由于两市场的投资者结构存在差异,创业板市场投资者更成熟、创业板政策及监管更为全面等原因。     

期权定价的“有限理性”视角：基于投资者情绪的研究

2013年的种种迹象表明我国金融市场将进入期权时代。期权价值的确定是期权功能发挥的前提和基础。本文从行为金融学的角度出发,在传统二叉树期权定价模型的基础上,通过引入投资者情绪变量构建基于投资者情绪的欧式看涨期权定价模型。模型表明,投资者情绪不仅通过行为随机折现因子直接影响期权价值,而且通过影响标的证券的价值运行概率间接影响期权的最终价值;投资者情绪与期权价格之间呈现正相关关系。最后,基于长虹CWB1的实证研究也表明了传统期权定价模型存在的缺陷,通过求解权证实际交易价格与理论价格之间的偏差,可以反算出投资者情绪,进而预测权证的行为价值。     

Risk-neutral skewness and market returns: The role of institutional investor sentiment in the futures market

This paper investigates the effect of index risk-neutral skewness on subsequent market returns and explores whether this effect will vary with various types of institutional investor sentiment in the futures market. Using index futures returns as the proxy of market returns, the empirical results show that the index risk-neutral skewness has a significantly negative effect on subsequent index futures returns. Moreover, the effect of institutional investor sentiment on subsequent index futures returns varies with various types of institutional investor sentiment. Finally, the effect of index risk-neutral skewness on subsequent index futures returns relies on various types of institutional investor sentiment.     

A Bayesian approach to excess volatility,short-term underreaction and long-term overreaction during financial crises

In this paper, we introduce a new Bayesian approach to explain some market anomalies during financial crises and subsequent recovery. We assume that the earnings shock of an asset follows a random walk model with and without drift to incorporate the impact of financial crises. We further assume the earning shock follows an exponential family distribution to accommodate symmetric as well as asymmetric information. By using this model setting, we develop some properties on the expected earnings shock and its volatility, and establish properties of investor behavior on the stock price and its volatility during financial crises and the subsequent recovery. Thereafter, we develop properties to explain excess volatility, short-term underreaction, long-term overreaction, and their magnitude effects during financial crises and the subsequent recovery. We also explain why behavioral finance theory could be used to explain many of the asset pricing anomalies, but traditional asset pricing models cannot achieve this aim.     

投资者认知、审计质量与公司价值

投资者认知是决定市场资源配置的重要因素,认知水平越高,公司价值越大。审计作为一种降低信息不对称的制度安排,能够影响公司信息传递,进而正向调节认知效应;审计还具有缓解代理冲突的功能,而代理成本与审计质量存在对应关系,因此审计质量也体现为对认知效应的负向调节。我国股市目前主要体现为后一种情况,表明审计提升公司价值的主要路径是缓解公司的代理冲突,公司对高质量审计的需求动机远比满足投资者信息需求的动机更为强烈。聘用大型事务所能够向市场投资者传递积极信号,对认知提升公司价值的效应有正向调节作用。审计模式选择需要考虑公司的信息传递特征,并与投资者对公司的认知水平相契合。     

Time-varying impact of monetary policy shocks on US stock returns: The role of investor sentiment

This paper investigates how monetary policy shock affects the stock market of the United States (US) conditional on states of investor sentiment. In this regard, we use a recently developed estimator that uses high-frequency surprises as a proxy for the structural monetary policy shocks, which in turn is achieved by integrating the current short-term rate surprises, which are least affected by an information effect, into a vector autoregressive (VAR) model as an exogenous variable. When allowing for time-varying model parameters, we find that, compared to the low investor sentiment regime, the negative reaction of stock returns to contractionary monetary policy shocks is stronger in the state associated with relatively higher investor sentiment. Our results are robust to alternative sample period (which excludes the zero lower bound) and model specification and also have important implications for academicians, investors, and policymakers.     

行业资产的Black-Litterman模型配置研究——基于社交网络情绪文本挖掘算法

研究目标:构建反映行业股价走势的基于社交网络文本挖掘算法的行业投资者情绪指标，并改善嵌入行业投资者情绪指标的Black-Litterman模型对资产的配置结果。研究方法:基于社交网络文本挖掘算法度量投资者情绪，运用主成分分析法构建行业投资者情绪指标，并嵌入Black-Litterman模型中构建投资者观点矩阵，确定行业资产配置比。研究发现:基于行业投资者情绪的BL模型有效提高了资产配置的日均收益率和夏普比率。实证结果在样本外验证(除受新冠疫情影响阶段)、暴涨暴跌阶段以及经过允许卖空和交易成本调整后仍稳健，进而证实了投资者情绪对资产组合有显著影响。研究创新:基于社交网络文本挖掘算法构建投资者情绪指数，解决了仅依赖于预期收益或历史数据的预测模型无法直观揭示投资者心理认知和行为的局限性问题，从一个崭新的视角科学地解决Black-Litterman模型中投资者观点的生成问题。研究价值:扩展了Black-Litterman模型理论体系研究，并推动了行为金融理论在资产配置中的应用。