货币与财政政策后续效应评估:40次银行危机样本

以20世纪80年代以来40次重要的系统性银行危机为基础,对金融危机后的货币政策和财政政策选择进行实证评价。实证结果表明,"适度扩张"的货币政策和财政政策能产生相对较优的经济效果,应成为金融危机后的主要政策选择,但由于两种政策刺激或稳定经济的效力都集中体现在短期,为避免持续和大规模货币扩张和财政赤字带来的负面影响,一旦危机消退、经济企稳回升,之前作为"反危机工具"出现的扩张性货币和财政政策就应该逐步淡出。     

地方政府赤字财政下的物价控制与货币政策选择

货币经济学的一个基本观点就是,紧缩的货币政策能够降低通货膨胀,而扩张性的货币政策能够导致通货膨胀。费德斯坦指出,没有充分考虑财政政策的影响,这是货币经济学的严重缺陷。因此,文章结合我国当前的财政政策,探讨了在地方政府赤字财政下,中央银行如何控制和治理通货膨胀。文章认为,在地方政府赤字财政下,如果政府通过银行融资具有优先权的话,紧缩的货币政策不仅不能够控制通货膨胀,反而加速了通货膨胀。     

COVID-19 policy actions and inflation targeting in South Asia

In this paper, we examine the impact of policy actions undertaken by governments during the COVID-19 pandemic on Consumer Price Index (CPI) in five major South Asian nations, namely, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Using panel fixed effects regression with robust standard errors, we show the relative importance of monetary and financial interventions on reducing CPI while fiscal interventions, direct grants and aid are insignificant. Further, delving into nature of policy interventions, our study finds evidence of negative impact of Credit Support, and Healthcare Support on CPI in South Asian nations. While our investigation is preliminary, it provides insights into additional understanding of effectiveness of policy actions on inflation targeting.     

Taiwan's External Imbalance and Structural Adjustment: A General Equilibrium Analysis*

Taiwan's trade surplus reached about one-fifth of GNP by 1986, becoming the source of attention and criticism from the international community. Realizing it is to her own benefit to reduce the surplus, and also in order to ease outside pressure, Taiwan started to take measures of macroeconomic adjustments, including currency appreciation and expansionary fiscal policies. Trade surplus was reduced to 8.1% of GNP by 1989, as a result of increases in domestic demand accompanied by decreases in demand from abroad. At the same time the sectoral structure of Taiwan's economy changed: the share of non-tradable sectors (mainly construction and services) expanded while that of the tradable ones (agriculture and manufacturing) shrank. This paper uses a 27-sector computable general equilibrium model to investigate the comparative statics of changes in Taiwan's fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies in 1989. Results of the model's counter factual policy simulations indicate expansionary fiscal and monetary policies are effective in reducing the external imbalance. In particular if public investment and money supply were raised by respectively 20% and 10% above the actual values, current account surplus as a percentage of GNP could be reduced from 8.52% to 6.91% in that year, and resources shifts from the tradable to the non-tradable sectors would be strengthened. They also indicate that to achieve a given target of reduction in external imbalance, there are trade-offs between expansionary fiscal policies and currency appreciation and between expansionary monetary policies and currency appreciation. For instance to reduce the current account surplus ratio to 5.04 of GNP, a 15% (10%) increase in public investment (money supply) would have to be accompanied by a 31% (29%) appreciation of the nominal effective exchange rate.     

外贸减速背景下我国政策工具调节效力分析——基于SVAR模型的实证研究

本文运用结构向量自回归SVAR模型,对2003～2011年间我国各项政策工具在调节贸易收支方面的综合效力展开实证分析,并结合理论文献充分阐述各项政策发挥效力的传导机制,力图为中国当前政策搭配决策提供科学的理论与实证依据。本文主要结论是,在调节贸易收支失衡方面,我国货币政策比财政政策更加有效。脉冲响应函数显示,扩张性货币政策能够有效缩小贸易顺差,而且货币政策冲击在10个月后达到最大效力,2年后达到最大累积效力。财政支出扩张对贸易顺差有"先抑制再推动"的作用,但政策效力十分有限。人民币名义汇率的正向冲击能够对贸易收支造成显著的"倒J曲线效应"。与传统观点不同,国内要素价格上调在1年半左右的时间窗口不会抑制反而会扩大贸易盈余。上述实证结论支持在外贸减速背景下继续推进包括工资在内的生产要素价格改革,同时建议货币政策制定时应充分考虑对贸易收支的显著影响。     

Devaluation and monetary policy with import compression

The consequences of exchange rate and monetary policies are investigated under two foreign exchange regimes. The analysis is motivated by the experiences in sub-Saharan Africa. The supply side of the open economy model developed by Buffle (1986) is modified to take into account the import dependency of the region. In the first regime, with endogenous foreign savings, overvalued exchange rate and expansionary monetary policy tend to increase the current account deficit. In the second regime, when intermediate imports are rationed to handle the foreign exchange shortage, overvaluation and monetary expansion are shown to be likely sources of output contraction. The cost of policy reorientation is reduced investment.     

Transatlantic Trade-Offs in the Age of Balanced Budgets and European Monetary Union

We develop a model of monetary and fiscal policies appropriate for considering U.S.-European policy interactions in an era of near-balanced budgets and European monetary union. We study the determinants of policy trade-offs and incentives for central banks and governments across the Atlantic. Smaller, more open economies face more favorable trade-offs, since openness enhances policy effectiveness via the exchange-rate channel. Changes in Europe's monetary arrangements do not affect U.S. trade-offs, although they alter the trade-offs facing European policy-makers. Fiscal trade-offs depend crucially on the extent to which fiscal policy is distortionary. Changes in taxes and spending move both employment and inflation in the desired direction following a worldwide supply shock when spending is financed with distortionary taxes.     

Monetary theory and monetary policy a central banker's view

Summary In this article attention is paid to monetary theory, the relationship between the instruments of monetary policy and other important macro-economic policy instruments, and finally to the real possibilities of pursuing an effective monetary policy. The conclusion from the theoretical analysis is that the total money supply must be considered one of the most important macro-economic policy instruments. An excessive supply of money will sooner or later lead to inflation, to the debasement of money. Therefore the volume of money should be controlled. The use and effectiveness of monetary policy should always be seen in the context of other policy instruments, especially fiscal policy and, under circumstances, wage- and price policy. The possibilities to pursue an effective monetary policy are not unlimited. The effectiveness of such a policy can,e.g., be hampered by external factors. It is vital for a central bank to have the widest possible range of instruments at its disposal.     

财政政策与货币政策的动态搭配和组合模式

基于经济周期的不同阶段,从IS-LM曲线和供求理论的双重视角解析利用财政政策与货币政策对宏观经济进行调控的内在机理,揭示两类政策搭配组合的理论逻辑,分析制约财政政策与货币政策调控效应的现实因素。研究发现,财政政策与货币政策的搭配组合要根据经济发展的不同阶段进行动态供给,以满足经济周期不同阶段的需求,如此方能实现经济的稳定增长。现阶段,我国应采取“更加积极的财政政策与稳健适度的货币政策”这一政策组合。产品市场与货币市场对利率的弱敏感性使政策刺激经济的效果受到制约,因而两类政策不仅要在总量层面“对冲”经济增速减缓的压力,而且要在结构层面增强协调性。     

Designing Fiscal Institutions in a Monetary Union

This article explores the policy and wealth consequences of alternative institutional arrangements through which fiscal policy interacts with monetary policy in a monetary union such as the EMU. The central issue of the article is the design of the appropriate monetary and fiscal institutions through a comparison of alternative arrangements to distribute power over monetary and fiscal authorities between the central authority of the union and the individual members of the union and evaluating their performance. The main results of this article reveal that delegation of the fiscal policy to a council of country representatives and the monetary policy to a council of governors is the appropriate institutional design to reduce inflation bias and better stabilize regional, idiosyncratic supply and demand shocks in a monetary union.     

Policy Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in a Two‐country Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model: Evidence from China*

In this paper, we construct a two‐country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to investigate the sources of business cycles in China and the contributions of policy shocks in economic fluctuations. The empirical results from Bayesian estimation show that, apart from the traditional supply and demand shocks, monetary and fiscal policy shocks also play important roles in determining China's economic fluctuations. In addition, we find significant feedback effects between monetary and fiscal policies in China, indicating that policy coordination is an important feature of China's monetary and fiscal policies. Overall, these results not only shed new light on the policy factors behind China's economic fluctuations, but also provide new evidence that is helpful for understanding the policy transmission mechanisms in China.     

EMU Stability: Direct and Indirect Risk Sharing

Our paper aims to analyze the effectiveness of different risk-sharing mechanisms in providing stability to a monetary union. We select two stylized tools with extreme and opposite features. The first is an expansionary but conventional monetary policy that is used to help EMU’s most fragile member states manage their public debts; the second is a centralized fiscal policy that allows for the transfer of a portion of these public debts from EMU’s most fragile member states to those considered EMU’s “core”. By a stylized periphery-core model of a monetary union, we compare the strengths and weaknesses of these two tools in order to reach some welfare implications in terms of union stability.     

Optimal Monetary Policy in China

Using the structural vector autoregression model, we estimate the current responses of monetary policy to contemporaneous shocks from macroeconomic variables. Our findings indicate that the People's Bank of China responded to inflation and output changes, but did not react to asset price fluctuations during the period from January 1997 to March 2010. The optimal monetary responses to exogenous shocks are also examined. It is revealed that using asset prices to formulate monetary policy would not help to improve monetary authorities' performance in lowering the volatilities of output growth and inflation while keeping output growth and inflation in their safety zones. The effectiveness of monetary policy and fiscal policy in reacting to external shocks is also discussed.     

THE CYCLICALITY OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY IN SOUTH AFRICA SINCE 1994

This paper uses a structural vector‐autoregression approach to discuss the cyclicality of fiscal and monetary policy in South Africa since 1994. There is substantial South African literature on this topic, but much disagreement remains. Though not undisputed, there is growing consensus that monetary policy has contributed to the remarkable stabilisation of the South African economy over this period. The evaluation of the role of fiscal policy in stabilisation has been less favourable and there is little evidence that a countercyclical fiscal stance was a priority over this period. This paper considers these issues in an empirical framework that addresses some of the shortcomings in the literature. Specifically, it constructs a structural model in contrast with the reduced form models typically used in the South African literature, incorporates the dynamic interaction between monetary and fiscal shocks on the demand side and supply shocks on the other, and avoids controversy over “neutral” base years and the size of fiscal elasticities. The model confirms the consensus on monetary policy, finding it to have been largely countercyclical since 1994. On fiscal policy, this paper finds evidence of pro‐cyclicality, especially in the more recent period, though the policy simulations suggest that the pro‐cyclicality of fiscal policy has had little destabilising impact on real output.     

Can inflation targeting regimes be effective in developing countries? The Turkish experience

This paper examines the performance of Turkey's inflation targeting (IT) experience. We find the IT regime to be an effective framework. Our judgment is based on three broad conclusions supported by empirical analyses. First, fiscal stability is an effective tool for a successful monetary policy. Second, the overnight policy of the Central Bank of Turkey rate is a significant determinant of the changes in market lending rates, which is the preliminary step in the monetary transmission mechanism. Third, recent developments on the broader issue of the effectiveness of interest rate policy in controlling inflation through aggregate demand management and through other channels are encouraging. Based on our findings, we argue that the impact of policy rate changes on economic activity and inflation have become more predictable and changed in the direction in line with theory, improving the transmission capacity of monetary policy.     

新冠疫情全球扩散对中国开放经济和世界经济的影响

在巩固新冠肺炎疫情防控成效的同时,中国经济在努力复工复产复市。因疫情防控导致境内外交通运输联系不同程度被阻断,商品运输成本提高、交货日期延长,中间品与劳动力供应不足,中国进出口贸易和国际直接投资增长面临很大压力。中国企业复工复产受到全球价值链运行态势影响,疫情全球扩散正在引发全球范围内经济结构、财政政策、货币政策、贸易政策调整。疫情在全球范围扩散,使企业经营压力上升,造成金融恐慌并引起全球经济深度衰退的可能性增加;为抗击疫情增加财政补贴和实施宽松货币政策,增加了各国财政负担,带来全球范围内的通货膨胀压力加大;部分国家试图借口疫情防控,发动新的贸易摩擦的可能性增加。     

经济政策不确定性视角下宏观杠杆的调控效应及其策略选择

新常态下保证宏观杠杆稳步下降是供给侧结构性改革的重要任务之一。以中国经济政策不确定性为门限变量,构建了包括经济政策不确定性、宏观经济政策以及宏观杠杆在内的门限结构向量自回归(T-SVAR)模型,研究高低两种政策不确定性区制下我国需求端货币政策与财政政策以及供给端金融改革政策对宏观杠杆的调控效应。结果显示,三种政策均存在明显的门限效应且在中长期内均出现逆转,区别在于,虽然货币政策对宏观杠杆的短期作用效果最为显著,但当政策不确定性水平快速攀升时,其调控效果会略微降低,而此时财政政策和金融供给侧结构性改革能有效平抑过高的杠杆率增速,且在长期依旧保持一定的调控效果。因此,央行在对宏观杠杆进行调控时应依据各政策调控效应的阶段性特征进行搭配使用,同时通过推进资本市场基础性制度改革,优化融资结构,为实现宏观政策调控效果的最大化奠定基础。     

财政应对突发公共卫生事件的制度逻辑及其机制完善

财政作为国家治理的基础和重要支柱,在应对新冠肺炎疫情中起着至关重要的作用。将财政应对突发公共卫生的实践内嵌于财政改革发展逻辑框架下进行考察,在对比SARS相关情况的基础上,分析财政应对新冠肺炎疫情的机制,并判断疫情对财政收支的直接影响和间接影响、短期影响和中长期影响。在此基础上,剖析财政应对突发公共卫生事件存在的问题,进而提出加大支持力度、压缩一般性支出、强化资金监管、加强信息交流和公开等近期应急性财税对策,以及健全筹资体制、优化事权划分、调整支出结构、加强绩效管理等中长期制度性财税措施。     

Rules,discretion, and international monetary and fiscal policy coordination

This paper considers the implications of international policy coordination when both monetary and fiscal policy choices are endogenous. We show that a movement from insular monetary commitment to international monetary policy coordination will, if fiscal policies are not coordinated, produce higher output and public expenditure levels at the expense of higher inflation rates. We also show that the concurrent coordination of monetary and fiscal policies raises output and inflation while lowering public expenditure relative to a regime of monetary coordination alone. We conclude that the arguments for concurrent monetary and fiscal policy coordination fail to have a clear-cut theoretical basis.     

DSGE模型框架下我国货币政策规则的比较分析

货币政策规则是中央银行为了保持通货膨胀和产出稳定并使经济更快发展所使用的货币政策的指导原则。目前,通行于各个国家的货币政策规则主要有利率规则和货币供应量规则。过去一段时间以来,西方发达国家都已逐渐从货币供应量规则过渡到利率规则,而在我国不管是应用方面还是理论研究方面,对于哪一个货币政策规则更适合我国始终都还没有定论。因此,本文试图在DSGE模型的框架下,对我国的货币政策规则进行比较分析。结果得出,相比于货币供应量规则,利率规则下:(1)货币政策更有效;(2)技术冲击所引起的通货膨胀和产出波动更小;(3)技术冲击对通货膨胀和产出的影响更短暂。因此,研究得出,我国更适合使用利率的货币政策规则。