Does oil price uncertainty matter in firm innovation? Evidence from China

Inspired by the prevalence of firm innovation and substantial influence of international oil price uncertainty (OPU) on firm operation and decision-making, we investigate the influence of OPU on firm innovation. Using a sample of Chinese listed firms over the 2007–2019 period, our study reveals that OPU decreases firm innovation. This finding is consistent with the real options theory and the prospect theory. Mediation analysis shows that OPU could decrease firm innovation by increasing firms' financing constraints degree. Moreover, high-tech firms and those in highly competitive industries have fewer options to delay their innovation investments, we find that the adverse effects of OPU on their innovation are weaker. Finally, further analysis shows that government subsidies can help mitigate adverse effects of OPU on firm innovation. This paper reveals that OPU goes beyond the commonly known and understood regular indicator that shapes a firm's innovation activity and enriches firm-level evidence for the effects of OPU by highlighting the effects on long-term investment in intangible assets.     

Oil price uncertainty and stock price informativeness: Evidence from investment-price sensitivity in China

We study the effects of oil price uncertainty (OPU) on stock price informativeness based on investment-price sensitivity. Using Chinese stocks from 2008 to 2021, we find a negative relationship between OPU and the strength of Tobin's q (a standardized measure of prices) for predicting investment opportunities. This finding is likely due to the crowding out of informed investors rather than the financial constraints brought by a higher cost of capital. Investment-price sensitivity also decreases more among firms in less-competition, high sales volatility, and lower analysts' attention. What is more, the reduction in investment-price sensitivity is more concentrated in public utilities, agriculture & livestock, and industry instead of in real estate or commerce industries. These findings indicate that OPU decreases the acquisition of information related to firms, and consequently, price informativeness for future investment decisions.     

Oil price uncertainty and corporate cash holdings: Global evidence

This study investigates the effects of oil price uncertainty on corporate cash holdings using large international publicly listed firms from 89 countries for the period 1990–2017. Building on the precautionary motive of cash and the trade-off theory, we argue that the oil price uncertainty has a significant impact on corporate cash holdings and this impact is nonlinear. First, we find that oil price volatility is positively associated with corporate cash holdings. However, we then find evidence that shows that the association between oil volatility and cash holdings exhibits a U-shape. Finally, we present evidence that the positive relationship between oil price uncertainty and corporate cash holdings is more pronounced in firms operating in oil-exporting countries and in oil-exposed industries. Overall, our findings support our predictions and are robust to multiple robustness tests.     

Oil shocks,policy uncertainty and earnings surprises

The study utilizes a structural VAR model to understand the connections among oil shocks, policy uncertainty and aggregate earnings in US. We find that the positive innovations in US oil supply increase the aggregate earnings. A rise in the US policy uncertainty decreases the aggregate earnings. After 2007 with the shale oil development in US, the earnings responses to the US oil supply shocks has increased. Over time shocks to US oil supply reduce the policy uncertainty. The development of US oil production is associated with the increase in income and the enhancement on political and economy security in US. Policy uncertainty plays an important role in the transmission of oil shocks to the earnings. The structural oil price shocks explain around 35% of the overall variations in the policy uncertainty in the long run and cause long swings in the policy uncertainty. The direct effects of oil shocks on the aggregate earnings are amplified by the endogenous responses of policy uncertainty.     

New evidence on oil price and firm returns

In this paper, we examine the relationship between oil price and firm returns for 560 US firms listed on the NYSE. First, we find that oil price affects returns of firms differently depending on their sectoral location. Second, we find strong evidence of lagged effect of oil price on firm returns. Third, we test whether oil price affects firm returns based on different regimes and find that in five out of the 14 sectors this is indeed the case. Finally, we unravel that oil price affects firm returns differently based on firm size, implying strong evidence of size effects.     

The effect of discretionary price control decisions on equity values

The macro literature presents conflicting evidence on the effects of price controls. In this study, the fact that the macro-economic effect of wage and price controls is the aggregation of the micro-economic effects is used to implement a different approach to measure the effects of price controls. The effect of price controls is inferred from examining the impact of discretionary regulatory decisions on the equity values of individual firms during Phase II of Nixon's Economic Stabilization Program. The empirical results indicate that violators of the regulations incurred significant abnormal losses that were unrelated to the explicit penalties. This suggests that implicit penalties were imposed on offending firms. The analysis of price increase decisions provides weak evidence that these Price Commission decisions had an impact on equity values.     

The roles of past returns and firm fundamentals in driving US stock price movements

This paper provides new empirical evidence that incorporating past stock returns from different time horizons can enhance the ability of firm fundamentals to better explain stock price movements but this benefit dissipates under uncertainty. We apply both OLS and state-space modeling to US firms' stock price movements over the period from 1999 to 2012 to compare the roles of the two main types of information typically used by equity investors. Empirical results reveal the importance of firm fundamentals over longer term horizons for particularly, small-cap stocks with greater information uncertainty. Furthermore, when market uncertainty is high, fundamentals unambiguously dominate in driving stock price movements of smaller sized firms indicating that uncertainty at the firm and market level both create attention bias on firm fundamentals.     

Capital market frictions and human capital investment: Evidence from workplace safety around regulation SHO

This paper examines the effect of capital market frictions on firms’ workplace safety. Using Regulation SHO as a natural experiment, we find a significant increase in work-related injury rates of pilot firms. The effect is stronger for firms in more competitive industries and with high financial constraints, and weaker for firms whose employees have high negotiating power and with good corporate governance. Further tests suggest that managers’ myopia shifts their focus away from investments in workplace safety when workplace safety is not related to firm performance. Overall, the results highlight how capital market frictions affect firms’ investment in human capital.     

STOCK PRICE DYNAMICS IN OVERLAPPED MARKET SEGMENTS: INTRA AND INTER-INDUSTRY CONTAGION EFFECTS

This study examines stock price dynamics of contagion effects in overlapping markets using an exponential ARCH (Autoregressive Conditional Hetero-scedastic) model. Specifically, the stock price dynamics among the oil and oil-related industries of the US are examined to see how stock price movements in one industry affect those of the related industries. The results suggest that when the amount of price innovations is larger than the expected amount, volatility of stock returns will be affected. The results further show that this influence comes from the oil-service industry and spreads to the oil industry and the gas industry. That is, inter-industry contagion effects do exist. In addition, when the firms of the oil industry are grouped into three size categories - large, medium and small - the results indicate that the source of contagion is from the large and the small oil firms. The influence of their price innovations spread to medium-sized oil firms, the oil-service industry and the gas industry. That is, the inter-industry and intra-industry contagion effects exist simultaneously.     

地方官员更替、企业辖区知名度与股价同步性

以2009～2013年我国A股上市公司为研究样本,实证分析地方官员更替、辖区企业知名度与股价同步性的关系,结果表明:地市级政府官员变更所带来的政治不确定性会显著降低辖区企业的股价同步性,并且相对于新任官员来源于本地而言,新任官员来源于异地更能够显著地降低辖区内企业的股价同步性.进一步研究还发现,当地市级政府官员发生变更时,相对于辖区知名度较高的企业而言,辖区知名度较低的企业会披露更多的企业私有信息以应对政治不确定性风险,从而其股价同步性有了更大程度的降低.研究的结论证实了政治不确定风险的增加能够显著降低辖区内企业的股价同步性,客观上有助于提高股价的信息含量.     

Social networks and managerial rent-seeking: Evidence from executive trading profitability

This study examines whether board social networks are associated with executive trading profitability. Using a sample of US public firms with a history of executive trading from years 2000 to 2015, we find robust evidence that the profitability of executive trading is significantly lower in firms with higher levels of board social networks. The evidence is consistent with our view that board social networks effectively curb executives' private information advantage over outsiders, thus leading to a lower level of managerial rent-seeking. Our research has policy implications for regulators concerned about the role of corporate board in capital markets.     

Out of Site,Out of Mind? The Role of the Government-Appointed Corporate Monitor

We study the role of a relatively new type of external firm monitor, an on-site government-appointed Corporate Monitor, and assess whether such appointments reduce firms' propensity to violate laws. Using a sample of deferred and nonprosecution agreements, we first document the determinants of Monitor appointment. We find firms that voluntarily disclose wrongdoing and have more independent directors are less likely to have Corporate Monitors, whereas those with more severe infractions, mandated board changes, and increased cooperation requirements are more likely to have Monitors. We find such appointments are associated with an 18%–25% reduction in violations while the Monitor is on site, however, the effect does not persist after the Monitorship ends. Using a semisupervised machine learning method to measure changes in firms' ethics and compliance norms, we find that the reduction in violations is associated with changes in ethics and compliance that also do not persist. Finally, we document that firms under Monitorship experience a persistent reduction in innovation, highlighting a previously unexplored cost of these interventions. Overall, our results suggest that, although Corporate Monitors on site are associated with fewer violations, firms revert to previous levels of violations following Monitors' departure.     

Do Chinese firms speculate during high economic policy uncertainty? Evidence from wealth management products

It has been well-documented that policy-related uncertainty has significant economic consequences. Studies show that US firms tend to delay investments and be conservative during periods of high economic policy uncertainty (EPU), but findings regarding Chinese firms suggest that they seem to act speculatively. This study examines the impact of policy uncertainty on firms' bank wealth management product (WMP) purchasing and helps better understand firm behaviour during high EPU. Using Chinese listed firms' bank WMPs purchasing data, we find that high EPU is associated with a higher probability of bank WMPs being purchased. Moreover, a 100% increase in EPU is associated with an 11.14% increase in average bank WMP holdings in the sample. We provide evidence that Chinese firms are not speculative, but prudent, and use bank WMP holdings to hedge the risk of policy uncertainty. Additionally, we show that financial constraints are the channels through which EPU affects bank WMP holdings.     

Corporate Performance,Corporate Governance and Top Executive Turnover in Finland

This paper empirically investigates how corporate governance forces and firm performance affect top executive turnover in Finnish listed companies. I document an increase in CEO, top management, and board turnover in response to poor stock price performance and operating losses. The sensitivity of the relation between stock price performance and CEO turnover is significantly higher in firms with a two‐tier board structure (when the CEO is not the chairman), but significantly lower when the CEO or a board member is the controlling shareholder. These results suggest that both the ownership structure and the board design have implications for the disciplining of managers.     

Political spending,related voluntary disclosure,and the cost of public debt

Following the Supreme Court decision in the Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission case of 2010, which removed restrictions in relation to firms’ political spending, and building on the growing debate over whether voluntary political spending disclosure (VPSD) provides valuable information, we examine the effect of political spending on the cost of public debt and the role of VPSD on this effect. Based on a measure of VPSD that became available in 2012 and a large dataset on US firms’ actual political spending, manually extracted from different filings, we provide novel evidence that, in the post-Supreme Court decision period, political spending increases the cost of public debt. This is consistent with the uncertainty associated with political spending. Moreover, we find that the level of voluntary disclosure weakens the positive association between political spending and the cost of public debt. These results hold across multiple specifications as well as when we use a sudden release of firms’ political spending as an exogenous shock to political spending.     

Does good governance matter to debtholders? Evidence from the credit ratings of Japanese firms

Consistent with existing evidence based on US firms, we show that good governance is associated with higher credit ratings. The most significant variables are institutional ownership and disclosure quality. This finding suggests that active monitoring (by large shareholders) and lower information asymmetry (through better disclosures) mitigate agency conflicts and reduce the risk to debtholders. Credit ratings are also found to increase with board size, consistent with a moderation effect in large decision-making groups. As a rule, firms are expected to benefit from better governance by being able to access funding at a lower cost and in larger amounts.     

COVID-19 pandemic,oil prices,stock market,geopolitical risk and policy uncertainty nexus in the US economy: Fresh evidence from the wavelet-based approach

In this paper, we analyze the connectedness between the recent spread of COVID-19, oil price volatility shock, the stock market, geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty in the US within a time-frequency framework. The coherence wavelet method and the wavelet-based Granger causality tests applied to US recent daily data unveil the unprecedented impact of COVID-19 and oil price shocks on the geopolitical risk levels, economic policy uncertainty and stock market volatility over the low frequency bands. The effect of the COVID-19 on the geopolitical risk substantially higher than on the US economic uncertainty. The COVID-19 risk is perceived differently over the short and the long-run and may be firstly viewed as an economic crisis. Our study offers several urgent prominent implications and endorsements for policymakers and asset managers.     

Corporate governance and firm value at dual class firms

This study explores whether corporate governance at dual class firms differs from that of their single class counterparts and whether firm value at dual class firms is associated with governance. Employing a sample of 1309 U.S. dual class firm‐year observations for the period 1996–2006, we show evidence that dual class firms are more likely to employ more shareholder rights provisions while exhibiting lower board and board committee independence than single class firms. The results also show that shareholder rights increase while board provisions decrease in wedge at dual class firms. Further findings underscore that firm value at dual class firms decreases in wedge, and increases in shareholder rights and in board‐related provisions, particularly in director independence. While strong board‐related governance at dual class firms is significantly positively related to firm value in a multivariate setting, shareholder rights are significantly associated with firm value only in instances of the weakest board provisions. Following unification, firms employ more antitakeover provisions while strengthening their board and board committee independence.     

Economic impact of political barriers to cross-border acquisitions: An empirical study of CNOOC's unsuccessful takeover of Unocal

In 2005, the US Congress challenged the acquisition by CNOOC (a Chinese state-owned enterprise) of Unocal (a US firm). This challenge creates a political barrier for foreign companies to acquire US oil companies. This paper examines the stock price reaction of US oil companies to this political opposition. Using an event study methodology, we find that this political barrier resulted in a substantial decline in the market value of US oil companies. For a period of 44 days, during which six anti-CNOOC-takeover political events occurred, the cumulative decline in the market value of a portfolio of 13 US oil refining firms was $47.5 billion and that of a portfolio of 66 US oil and gas exploration firms was $11.4 billion. This study is the first to analyze and quantify the stock price reaction of US non-merging firms to political barriers to cross-border acquisitions. It also has a policy implication regarding the recent enactment of the Foreign Investment and National Security Act of 2007.     

Oil prices,US stock return,and the dependence between their quantiles

In this article, we examine the relationship between oil prices and US equities by proposing a novel quantile-on-quantile (QQ) approach to construct estimates of the effect that the quantiles of oil price shocks have on the quantiles of the US stock return. This approach captures the dependence between the distributions of oil price shocks and the US stock return and uncovers two nuance features in the oil–stock relationship. First, large, negative oil price shocks (i.e. low oil price shock quantiles) can affect US equities positively when the US market is performing well (i.e. at high US return quantiles). Second, while negative oil price shocks could affect the US stock market, the influence of positive oil price shocks is weak, which suggests that the relationship between oil prices on the US equities is asymmetric.