Direct or indirect? The impact of political connections on export mode of Chinese private enterprises

The learning-by-exporting effect can vary by mode of export (direct or indirect via intermediaries), which raises the importance of understanding factors associated with how firms export. This paper investigates the effect of political connections, one form of informal institutions particularly important in China, on the choice of export mode by Chinese private enterprises. By using firm-level survey data and addressing endogeneity, we find that having political connections significantly increases the probability of direct exporting, while it has no effect on indirect exporting through trade intermediaries. We further test the underlying mechanisms behind these findings. The results show that corporate political connections can help alleviate financial constraints by promoting the (external) access to bank credits and by reducing the (internal) extra-tax burdens, which are disproportionately important for direct exporting relative to indirect exporting. In addition, we find limited evidence supporting the importance of contract enforcement and managerial efficiency as channels though which political connections affect the choice of export mode.     

Wholesalers,indirect exports,geography, and economies of scope: Evidence from firm transaction data in Japan

This study examines wholesalers’ roles in manufacturers’ exports in Japan. First, it is shown that, like in the case of manufacturing sector, a productivity sorting on the overseas activities is also present in the case of wholesalers. Namely, only the most productive wholesaler firms can engage in foreign direct investment, and the next productive wholesaler firms can participate in export activities, and the least productive wholesaler firms do domestic transactions only. Second, we investigate how the wholesalers facilitate manufacturers’ export activities in the form of indirect exports. We have found that the wholesalers through which manufacturing firms indirectly export their goods are predominantly located in Tokyo or Osaka. The probability of indirect exports is negatively correlated with distance between manufacturers and wholesalers, but there are certain threshold distances at 300–500 kilometers, over which the chance of indirect exports turns null. Another notable finding is that wholesalers’ productivities have positive correlation with the chances of indirect exports whereas manufacturers’ productivities do not matter. The number of manufacturers from which a wholesaler purchases goods, is found to have a positive correlation with the probability of indirect exports, a type of economies of scope effect.     

Smoking and wage rates – Evidence from Japanese panel data

This paper analyzes smoking behavior and its effects on wage rate. It is widely known that smoking has negative health effects and to discourage the practice, governments frequently implement policies such as tax increases and restrictions on public smoking. To evaluate these policies, it is necessary to understand the economic benefits and costs of reducing the number of smokers. We conduct a panel data analysis while controlling for unobserved heterogeneity and show that smoking is not the main factor causing observed wage differentials between smokers and non-smokers in Japan.As for the relationship between smoking and wages, we find that male smokers receive lower hourly wages than male nonsmokers. Smoking behavior generally depends on environmental, congenital, or social factors. These factors, however, do not only affect smoking behavior but also the wages of these individuals. To isolate the effect of smoking on wages, we control for individual heterogeneity using panel data to verify the existence of such an effect.Using tax change as an instrumental variable in the fixed effects model and several robustness checks, the results show that smoking has no statistically significant effect on wage rate. This suggests that smoking does not directly affect wages; rather, unobserved individual heterogeneity (other factors influencing both smoking and wages) leads to wage differences between smokers and nonsmokers. Nevertheless, smoking can affect wages in the long run through health problems. The nine-year panel data used in this research, however, is insufficient to capture the long-term indirect health effects. Thus, future research should consider analyzing indirect health effects using panel data spread across a wider time frame.     

Impacts of China-US trade conflicts on the energy sector

This paper uses a multi-country input-output model to simulate the impacts of the recent China-U.S. trade war. We first examine in detail the list of products subject to additional tariffs, and then use the model to estimate the economic impacts of the trade conflict. Based on the direct and indirect impacts on the energy sector of each country, we then extend the analysis to the issue of global energy demand. Our empirical results indicate that both China and the U.S. suffer from the conflict, although the impacts on China are greater Both countries experience a reduction in energy demand and a general economic slowdown. Although certain countries may benefit from the China-U.S. trade conflict in short-run, a general negative impact on the global economic prospects can affect all. Moreover, a short-term marginal impact on the global energy market is found, but as the consequence of long-term uncertainties and indirect economic impacts, further reductions of global energy demand are expected.     

What explains the intention to bring mobile phones for recycling? A study on university students in China and Germany

The analysis investigates the determinants of the intention to bring mobile phones for recycling. The paper is based on data regarding the determinants of bringing mobile phones for recycling collected from university students in Autumn 2016 (N = 1013) in both the Chinese and German academia. Using structural equation modeling, we examine the direct and indirect effects of social norms, knowledge about the environmental benefits of recycling and a pro-environmental attitude on the intention to recycle mobile phones. We find confirmation that attitude, social norms, and knowledge contribute positively and significantly to the intention to bring phones for recycling. As for three mediating effects tested, attitude mediates the relationship between knowledge and intention, as well as between social norms and intention. Knowledge as a mediator between social norms and attitude does not have a highly significant effect. Looking at the results of the Chinese and German sub-samples, we find that social norms have no direct effect on intention for the German sub-sample, but an indirect one through attitude. Knowledge has no significant effect for the German sub-sample. Results for the Chinese sub-sample indicate an indirect effect of social norms on attitude via knowledge, while knowledge itself has an indirect effect on intention through attitude.     

Regional convergence under declining population: The case of Japan

Using regional data from Japan, we examine how population growth affected regional convergence in Japan, where population decline has become conspicuous in several regions. The basic equation in the analysis allows two distinct features that previous studies rarely explored. First, we allow the coefficient of initial per capita output to change when the growth rate of population is lower than a threshold value. Second, we allow the growth rate of population to have ambiguous effects on the growth rate of per capita output. Our estimation results confirm the convergence hypothesis in Japan. However, we find that the declining speed of convergence was more conspicuous in the regions that had negative population growth. We also find that the decline in population growth, which was irrelevant for regional economic growth before 1995, came to have harmful impacts on regional economic growth after 1995. We believe this occurred because in societies with declining populations, economies of agglomeration had more significantly disappeared in poorer regions than in richer regions.     

Broadband use and trade facilitation: Impacts on bilateral trade of sub-Saharan countries

This paper investigates the direct and combined impacts of trade facilitation and information and communication technology (ICT) on bilateral flows of 25 sub-Saharan countries. For that purpose, we select time to export and import as specific trade facilitation indicators and broadband use to study ICT impacts. Our sample covers a total of 93 countries over the period 2004–2018. By preprocessing data analysis, we impute time costs missing values, an essential shortcoming of the available databases, to study trade facilitation over time. Lastly, we employ a gravity model and implement a Bonus Vetus Estimation. Our results show that broadband use exerts a positive and significant effect on trade, especially relevant for intra-African trade flows. Furthermore, the combined effects indicate that broadband also modulates the negative impacts of time to export and time to import in the case of intra-SSA countries' trade. The more significant result is found for time to export. Our results also confirm that time costs are not only particularly harmful to intra-African trade but also negatively impact trade flows from SSA countries to the rest of the world. These outcomes show the importance of coordinating trade facilitation and digital transformation policies, particularly those devoted to digitally transforming African customs.     

Premarital Sex Initiation and the Time Interval to First Marriage Among Indonesians

This study examines the determinants of premarital sex and its effect on the ages at which Indonesians first marry. Survival analysis has been applied to the 2012 Indonesia Demographic and Health Survey (IDHS), in which 11% of Indonesians reported they had had premarital sex. Our study shows the prevalence of premarital sex is higher when based on reports from married females and males aged 15–24 instead of reports from unmarried Indonesians. Males, less-educated people, and rural residents are also more likely to have premarital sex, while females, more-educated people and rural residents marry sooner after first having sex. Generally, however, Indonesians who have had premarital sex marry later than their counterparts. The long time span between Indonesians initiating premarital sex and marrying needs to be considered in policy that provides unmarried adolescents with rights to comprehensive sexual reproductive health (SRH) services.     

Impacts of increased Chinese imports on Japan’s labor market

Using the Japanese firm/establishment-level census data, we investigate the impact of the Chinese import penetration on employment in Japan. We found negative impacts of the Chinese import penetration on total employment, especially in industries producing competing products to Chinese imports, and a positive impact of the import penetration in the industries from which firms purchase their inputs (upstream import penetration). The negative impacts are mainly driven by firms’ exit from the market while positive impacts are enjoyed by surviving firms. We did not find any significant impacts of the penetration in the industries to which firms sell their products (downstream penetration).     

Empirical estimation of agglomeration economies associated with research facilities

This research employs a new technique to estimate agglomeration economies, which are omitted from standard Input-Output (I-O) models. The overall economic impact of an economic entity includes the direct and indirect impacts as well as the agglomeration economies. I-O analysis is employed to assess the direct and indirect economic impacts of a research facility. The overall economic impact is estimated by employing a demographic projection model that estimates employment, population, and income in the region without the facility's contribution to the economic landscape. The difference between the overall economic impact and the direct and indirect impacts are attributed to the agglomeration effects of the facility. The findings indicate that agglomeration economies are significant part of the overall economic impact.     

晚清厘金征收与市场整合--基于双重差分法的量化研究

市场整合对经济发展具有重要影响,为理解近代中国经济社会艰难的发展历程,有必要考察这一时期损害市场整合的因素。本文采用双重差分法量化考察了晚清厘金对粮食市场整合的影响,发现厘金征收显著降低了相邻府间的市场整合水平,这种影响占全样本市场整合水平变化的60%。并且这一估计结果得到了多种稳健性检验的支持。此外,本文发现厘金也损害了长距离贸易和市场整合水平。本文的发现有助于理解近代中国艰难的经济发展历程,也丰富了一系列考察中国长期经济发展中市场整合问题的研究。     

居住安排与社会支持对老年人医疗服务利用的影响研究——以上海为例

文章在对上海市静安区老年人进行随机抽样调查的基础上,采用tobit模型分析了居住安排与社会支持对老年人治疗性医疗服务利用的影响,采用logit模型分析了居住安排与社会支持对老年人预防性医疗服务利用的影响。研究发现,居住安排与社会支持对老年人医疗服务利用具有显著影响,但对不同层次、不同类型的医疗服务利用影响不同,同时,老年人的自理能力水平对这种影响发挥调节作用。在我国已经实现了医疗保险全覆盖的背景下,拓宽社区支持功能,提高老年人医疗服务的可及性并提升基层医疗服务质量应成为医疗政策的重要议题。     

Intergenerational income mobility and economic freedom

Numerous studies have found that income inequality reduces the chances of upward relative mobility (i.e., climbing up the income ladder). However, most of this work ignores the role played by institutional quality (namely, economic freedom) in determining mobility and increasing the individual's set of choices. We fill this gap by empirically testing the direct and indirect (through economic growth) impacts of economic freedom on intergenerational income mobility. We find that economic freedom has both direct and indirect effects on intergenerational income mobility, while income inequality is a strong predictor of downward income mobility. When we incorporate findings about the purely mechanical relationship between inequality and intergeneration income mobility, we find that the legal system and property rights component of economic freedom matters more than inequality. These results suggest that good institutions can increase intergenerational income mobility.     

Platforms in the Pacific: the trade effects of direct investment in Thailand

Thailand, as other ASEAN countries, experienced a dramatic surge of inward foreign direct investment in the late 1980s. These investments took place in relatively advanced, export-oriented industries. This study examines the effects of these investments on Thailand's trade, using a new methodology based on international input-output analysis. This framework accounts for the direct trade of foreign-affiliated companies as well as their indirect trade effects, including the displacement of competing imports, on one hand, and the procurement of imported intermediate inputs and capital goods, on the other. The framework is implemented with data from a Japanese Chamber of Commerce (Bangkok) survey. The results show, among other things, that Japanese-affiliated firms tend to offset their large direct trade deficits in the longer run with substantial indirect trade surpluses. These firms do, however, contribute to “triangular trade”-that is, Thai trade deficits with Japan, and surpluses with other countries.     

Language barriers and health status of elderly migrants: Micro-evidence from China

This paper empirically examines the effect of language barrier on elderly migrants' health status by exploiting individual-level data from the “China National Health Survey of Migrants 2015” database. We build an indicator of language barrier with geographical distribution information of Chinese dialect regions, and further separate the language effect from the migration effect by checking whether migrants move into a region with a different dialect. Results indicate a significant and negative impact of the language barrier on the health status of elderly migrants. Specifically, a language barrier results in poorer health conditions for younger elders. The mechanism test shows that a language barrier reduces migrants' abilities to build a social network, which is harmful to their health. Elderly migrants who are less-educated, live in host residence for a shorter time and move for business incentives suffer more from a language barrier. This study proves the power of a verbal language barrier to migrants' health.     

The implications of the ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ on globalization and inclusive growth for the Eurasian continent

The ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ (BRI) and other emergent forms of transnational institution building raise new fundamental issues for economists and social scientists. Can BRI become a template for a new phase in the globalization process – a stage in which China takes a more proactive role? Can BRI help Central Asian economies that until now had been standing on the sidelines become fully integrated into the global division of labor? This article tries to analyze China’s potential of assuming a more central role in international economic governance and globalization process, which would also be in line with the size of its population and GDP. Further, the article analyzes the potential impacts of the BRI on inclusive growth for the poorly integrated Eurasian landmass by inspecting several direct and indirect channels.     

制造企业供需双方关系、承诺与合作绩效间路径模型研究

文章研究表明：我国制造企业供需双方关系包括信任、依赖和信息共享三个因素，承诺包括承诺意愿和承诺行动两个因素；承诺意愿不仅对合作绩效具有显著直接影响路径，还通过承诺行动途径实现对合作绩效的间接影响；供需双方关系的各因素通过承诺意愿和承诺行动对合作绩效产生不同程度作用，信任和信息共享同时通过承诺意愿和承诺行动对合作绩效产生间接正向影响，信任对承诺意愿和承诺行动的影响效果均最为显著，而依柏对承诺意愿有显著负面影响，对承诺行动影响不显著。     

Do the Chinese “Keep up with the Jones”?: Implications of peer effects,growing economic disparities and relative deprivation on health outcomes among older adults in China

What are the health effects of unequal economic growth? What are the health consequences of ‘keeping up with the Jones’? Many developed countries (e.g., US and Japan) have experienced significant income growth between 1950s and 2000s but population survey shows that on average the population is not growing more satisfied with life. Theories that attempt to respond to these findings hypothesize that as income grows, people may spend more on conspicuous consumption because they compare themselves with others in their peer groups and care about their position in socio-economic distributions relative to others. Indeed, public health studies have found a relationship between income inequality and adult health outcomes in developed countries. Specifically, there seems to be a correlation between social hierarchy and mortality, as well as a correlation between social hierarchy and morbidity.China is a prime study site due to its growing spatial inequalities in the past decade. Though China has been committed to economic reform, different regions and cities have encountered very disparate rates of development and growth. In this paper, we utilize a set of panel data collected in China (China Health and Nutrition Survey 1989–2004) to examine the effects of peer groups, relative deprivation, and income disparities on individual health outcomes such as the probability of high waist circumference, body mass index categories, probability of hypertension, nutritional intake as well as health behavior such as smoking. We use a combination of multi-level mixed effects modeling as well as factor analysis to examine these effects and find significant and differential effects of income quartiles, peer groups, relative deprivation, and Gini coefficient on health.     

Search,migration, and social connections: Solving the migration puzzle to Beijing

We provide a plausible explanation for the phenomenon of migration to big cities such as Beijing and Shanghai. This process can be observed particularly among students who migrate to these cities and prefer to look for their first jobs upon completion of their studies, instead of going back to their hometowns. Despite the slightly higher wages offered in big cities, it is unclear why recently graduated students feel attracted to remain in big cities, where the living costs are much higher and the job market is more competitive compared to small cities. We develop a search and matching model in which we consider that the social connections created by the agents during their studies are used as a tool to get jobs. We solve for the optimal investment in social connections, and for the level of social capital that makes agents indifferent between migrating and staying in their current locations. We use a computational model and show that for agents with a sufficiently large social network, the value of social capital is large enough to overcome the value of going back to their hometowns, where they would face lower competition and living expenses, but they would lack the advantages that a social network represents.     

Things Fall Apart: Health Consequences of Mass Imprisonment for African American Women

In this article, we examine the possible impact of mass imprisonment on the physical health of African American women. Specifically, we focus on a variety of mechanisms through which mass imprisonment may increase the risk of having three major chronic health conditions that are risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD): hypertension, diabetes, and obesity. This approach is distinctive in that it provides a broad theoretical framework through which mass imprisonment might harm the physical health of African American women in ways separate from the pathways linking mass imprisonment to their risk of contracting infectious diseases (especially HIV and other STIs), which has been the emphasis of most research in this area. In order to draw these connections, we begin by briefly discussing what mass imprisonment is and its social consequences. We then discuss our three CVD risk factors, documenting disparities between white and African American women in these risk factors and discussing mechanisms through which mass imprisonment might contribute to these disparities. We close by discussing the data needed to test our hypotheses and suggesting some avenues for future research.