Do Chinese firms speculate during high economic policy uncertainty? Evidence from wealth management products

It has been well-documented that policy-related uncertainty has significant economic consequences. Studies show that US firms tend to delay investments and be conservative during periods of high economic policy uncertainty (EPU), but findings regarding Chinese firms suggest that they seem to act speculatively. This study examines the impact of policy uncertainty on firms' bank wealth management product (WMP) purchasing and helps better understand firm behaviour during high EPU. Using Chinese listed firms' bank WMPs purchasing data, we find that high EPU is associated with a higher probability of bank WMPs being purchased. Moreover, a 100% increase in EPU is associated with an 11.14% increase in average bank WMP holdings in the sample. We provide evidence that Chinese firms are not speculative, but prudent, and use bank WMP holdings to hedge the risk of policy uncertainty. Additionally, we show that financial constraints are the channels through which EPU affects bank WMP holdings.     

Does external uncertainty matter in corporate sustainability performance?

Motivated by the prevalence of corporate sustainability and the rise of uncertainty at the national level, we investigate the impact of three sources of uncertainty; namely, economic policy, climate change, and political instability, on firms' sustainability performance. Using a sample of 6804 firms from 72 countries spanning 15 years, our study revealed that uncertainty due to climate change, economic policy, and political instability negatively affects firms' sustainability performance. This finding is in line with the real options theory that uncertainty in an external environment discourages firms' long-term investment (e.g. investment in corporate sustainability). In addition, the results show that the option for delay in sustainability investment moderated the relation between uncertainty at the national level and firms' sustainability performance. Firms with better sustainability performance had higher firm value when facing uncertainty. Interestingly, firms with higher profitability performed better in sustainability when facing uncertainty at the national level.     

Equity market response to natural disasters: Does firm's corporate social responsibility make difference?

This study investigates the role of corporate social responsibility (CSR) in explaining firms' stock performance in the wake of natural disasters in the United States. Using event study and multivariate regression analyses, we find that market performance of CSR firms is better than that of non-CSR firms when such disasters occur. We also highlight the importance of environmentally friendly practices in driving the performance of CSR firms. Our results indicate that firms practicing environmental CSR are more resilient to such disasters than nonenvironmental CSR firms. Cross-sectional analyses show that such positive market reaction of CSR firms is more pronounced when firms have low financial constraints, low information asymmetry, and high social capital.     

Is there a CSI-leverage nexus?

We examine how various measures of consumer sentiment index (CSI) affect firms' debt policy decisions. Using U.S. firm-level quarterly data from 1993 to 2017, we provide a strong positive relationship between CSI measures and corporate debt policy, implying that firms use external borrowing during a positive economic outlook and reap the tax-shield benefit. We also find that improved household optimism over financial and business sentiments leads to future household consumption. The CSI-leverage nexus is moderated by the state of firms' financial condition, reputation, and profitability. Importantly, our results are robust to sub-sample analysis, firm-level and macroeconomic controls, econometric specifications, alternative measures of sentiment including Shiller's cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio (i.e., CAPE_SH), Baker and Wurgler (2006)’s stock market sentiment index (i.e., SENT_BW) and search-based uncertainty measure such as FEARS (i.e., Financial and Economic Attitudes Revealed by Search) index of Da, Engelberg, and Gao (2015).     

Disclosure “Bunching”

This paper studies managers' preferences among information acquisition and disclosure policies when their firms are required to engage in “real‐time” or “continuous” financial reporting. The paper predicts that for many, but not all, processes describing the distribution of their firms' cash flows, when subject to such reporting requirements, managers will engage in disclosure “bunching,” that is, they will bunch the discretionary component of the information they acquire and disclose into a single point in time rather than spread the acquisition and disclosure of that information over time. We show that managers' preferred bunching period depends on managers' strategy for trading in their firms' shares, managers' risk aversion, the risk premium the capital market attaches to firms' shares, and the size of managers' initial ownership stakes in their firms. We also study and characterize how the equilibrium prices of firms' shares vary over time and also how managers' optimal trading strategies vary with their most preferred “bunching” strategies. Several extensions confirm the robustness of the optimality of disclosure “bunching.”     

Culture and capital structure: What else to the puzzle?

This paper investigates four of Hofstede's cultural dimensions –individualism, masculinity, uncertainty avoidance, and long-term orientation– influence on firms' choices of short-term and long-term capital structures. Cultures influence on corporate risk-taking may drive their debt-to-equity mix based on the higher of their equity book or market value. We empirically test culture influence with a sample of 5968 firms from five industry sectors, across 33 countries, over 2009–2017. We find firms national culture influencing their choices of short-term and long-term debt to book and market value of equity. The influence is more significant on the short-term than the long-term capital structures. Furthermore, it is more significant on the short-term debt to market value of equity and on the long-term debt to book value of equity. Our robustness checks at the firm-level, country-level and sample-level confirm and reinforce our main results. These findings would provide financial analysts, investors, and creditors an in-depth understanding when comparing international firms' capital structures.     

Mandatory IFRS Reporting around the World: Early Evidence on the Economic Consequences

This paper examines the economic consequences of mandatory International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) reporting around the world. We analyze the effects on market liquidity, cost of capital, and Tobin's q in 26 countries using a large sample of firms that are mandated to adopt IFRS. We find that, on average, market liquidity increases around the time of the introduction of IFRS. We also document a decrease in firms' cost of capital and an increase in equity valuations, but only if we account for the possibility that the effects occur prior to the official adoption date. Partitioning our sample, we find that the capital‐market benefits occur only in countries where firms have incentives to be transparent and where legal enforcement is strong, underscoring the central importance of firms' reporting incentives and countries' enforcement regimes for the quality of financial reporting. Comparing mandatory and voluntary adopters, we find that the capital market effects are most pronounced for firms that voluntarily switch to IFRS, both in the year when they switch and again later, when IFRS become mandatory. While the former result is likely due to self‐selection, the latter result cautions us to attribute the capital‐market effects for mandatory adopters solely or even primarily to the IFRS mandate. Many adopting countries make concurrent efforts to improve enforcement and governance regimes, which likely play into our findings. Consistent with this interpretation, the estimated liquidity improvements are smaller in magnitude when we analyze them on a monthly basis, which is more likely to isolate IFRS reporting effects.     

The trade war's impact on the financial market: Observations from the historical global trade war - the Smoot Hawley Tariff Act

This study examines financial market reactions to political events that led to the passage and repeal of the Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act (SHTA) from the perspective of political uncertainty. The events were a series of debates and votes held by the U.S. House and Senate before the SHTA was signed into law in 1930 and repealed in 1934. These events increase political uncertainty about trade policy, thereby creating a unique setting to measure the impact of political uncertainty on financial market reactions. We find that each event resulted in an average loss of 3.6% in the U.S. aggregate stock market over a [−1, +1] three-day window. Such negative returns were observed at the firm level. Moreover, we find that firms with higher tariff protection performed significantly better than firms with lower tariff protection on nonevent dates. Furthermore, we discovered that trading volumes were significantly higher on event dates than on nonevent dates. Stock return volatility was significantly higher during the entire debating and voting period than during the 12 months preceding its inception and 6 months following the SHTA's passage into law. However, higher tariff protection was associated with lower return volatility outside the event window. Our findings show that political uncertainty events commanded the risk premium.     

Economic policy uncertainty and imitation behaviors of corporate social responsibility practices: Evidence from China

In this paper, we examine whether firms facing higher economic policy uncertainty (EPU) are more likely to show similar corporate social responsibility (CSR) practices compared with their peer firms. Drawing upon institutional theory, in response to uncertainty under complex circumstances, managers tend to imitate peer firms' strategic actions to acquire legitimacy. Consistent with our theoretical expectations, we find that EPU increases the likelihood that a focal firm will show CSR practices similar to its peer firms. Such a likelihood is amplified for firms that (1) bear more negative media coverage, (2) have higher industry competition intensity, (3) belong to heavy-polluting industries, and (4) for the first-time disclosures. Our results hold when we employ a series of endogeneity tests and robustness checks.     

Economic policy uncertainty and corporate financialization: Evidence from China

Using a quarterly sample of Chinese non-financial listed firms from 2007 to 2020, we find a U-shaped relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and corporate financialization. When economic policy uncertainty (EPU) is in an appropriate range, the increase of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) is unlikely to make firms increase financial assets investment. In contrast, the operational risk induced by too high economic policy uncertainty (EPU) will make firms more willing to invest in financial assets. Additionally, we show that the effect is more noticeable when firms are non-state-owned, have lower financing constraints, or are located in lower marketization regions. The results are robust after various specifications of variables, possible endogeneity issues, and sub-samples are considered.     

Does FinTech development facilitate firms' innovation? Evidence from China

This study examines the impact of financial technology (FinTech) development on firms' innovation. Using Chinese listed firms' panel data from 2011 to 2021 and the FinTech indicators we constructed, we find that FinTech development significantly facilitates firms' innovation by alleviating their information asymmetry and financing constraints. This finding continues to hold after a series of robustness tests and endogeneity discussions. Moreover, we find that the effect of FinTech development on innovation is more pronounced for non-state-owned firms, firms in the central region, and high-tech firms. These results offer important policy implications as they demonstrate the crucial role of FinTech in the high-quality development of the real economy.     

Activist hedge funds and firm disclosure

This study examines whether firms' disclosure decisions are affected by the presence of activist hedge funds. Using a large sample of firms that experienced increases in ownership by activist hedge funds, we find that firms are more likely to cease providing financial guidance or reduce the information in the guidance in the quarter subsequent to new investment by activist hedge funds. These results hold even for firms that experienced good quarters and consistently provided guidance in previous quarters. Since guidance has been shown to be beneficial to capital market participants in many ways, reduced guidance has meaningful market implications. Our findings highlight a negative and possible unintended consequence of activist hedge funds' investment in firms, which provides some counterbalance to the numerous positive consequences documented in the prior literature on hedge fund activism.     

Strategic IPOs and product market competition

We examine firms' incentives to go public in the presence of product market competition. As a result of their greater ability to diversify idiosyncratic risk in the capital market, public firms' owners tolerate higher profit variability than owners of private firms. Consequently, public firms adopt riskier and more aggressive output market strategies than private firms, which improves the competitive position of the former vis-à-vis the latter. This strategic benefit of being public, and thus, the proportion of public firms in an industry, is shown to be positively related to the degree of competitive interaction among firms in the output market, to demand uncertainty, and to the idiosyncratic portion of this uncertainty. Additional empirical predictions concern the effect of a firm's initial public offering on its market share and on its rivals' valuations. We test the model's predictions and find empirical support for most of them.     

Economic policy uncertainty and short-term financing: The case of trade credit

We examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty on trade credit. We document a decline (increase) in accounts payable, receivable, and net credit during periods of high (low) policy uncertainty and that firms react quickly to changes in uncertainty. The relation is long-term and holds after controlling for endogeneity, non-policy economic and political uncertainties, and the Great Recession. Industry competitiveness, proxied by firm market power, moderates the impact of economic policy uncertainty on trade credit. Uncertainty about monetary and fiscal policies, taxes, and regulations are the major drivers of trade credit changes. The reduction in trade credit during periods of increasing uncertainty can be explained by financial distress, constraints, and relation-specific investment channels.     

Central supervision and earnings management: Quasi-experimental evidence from China

Earnings management is costly to society because it decreases the informativeness of earnings and hence distorts capital market efficiency. Drawing upon a natural experiment generated by the staggered random on-site inspection programme initiated by China's central government between 2013 and 2017, this paper finds that highly intensive central supervision significantly decreases local firms' earnings management behaviours. Moreover, the effect of central supervision is found to be more pronounced in provinces with severe GDP exaggeration, provinces with local governors facing impending promotion, and firms controlled by the government. These findings suggest that on-site inspections by the central government may alleviate local officials' political incentives and ability to pressure local firms to engage in earnings management. However, the estimation results of timing tests indicate that this monitoring effect is short-lived, calling for a more comprehensive strategy to enhance the supervision of local officials and consequently improve the reliability of firms' financial reporting quality. These findings highlight the importance of addressing the agency problem between central and local governments in curbing firms' earnings manipulation to improve the capital market efficiency of economies characterized by strong government intervention.     

The effect of government industrial policies on corporate accounting conservatism

This study examines whether and how firms adjust their accounting conservatism in response to government support through industrial policies, which reduce firms’ dependence on external financing from the capital market. Based on China’s unique economic programme called ‘Five-Year Plan’ from 1991 to 2015, we observe a decline in accounting conservatism among firms covered by government industrial policies. The decline is more pronounced in covered firms, which face higher ex-ante financial constraints, and in the subsample of firms which receive higher government support. These findings are robust to alternative specifications of accounting conservatism and policy timing. Our evidence implies that government industrial policies can have unintended consequences for corporate financial reporting.     

Lean against the wind: The effect of policy uncertainty on a firm's corporate social responsibility strategy

We examine the effect of policy uncertainty on firms' strategy of corporate social responsibility (CSR). During uncertain times, firms strategically increase their commitment to CSR causes. Policy uncertainty is positively associated with CSR performance regardless of the estimation method. CSR strategy can substitute for lobbying when firms attempt to manage policy uncertainty. Improved CSR performance can reduce firms' exposure to policy uncertainty which indicates that CSR commitment can deliver insurance-like benefits. The findings highlight the value of CSR commitments during uncertain times.     

R&D investment and distress risk

This paper proposes that besides volatility, R&D can increase firms' distress risk through another channel. Unlike capital investment, R&D is more inflexible and subject to high adjustment costs. Moreover, R&D intensive firms face severe financial constraints and are more likely to suspend/discontinue R&D projects. Therefore, firms' distress risk increases with their R&D intensity. Using a large panel of US companies over the 1980 to 2011 period, I find a robust empirical relation between R&D and distress risk, primarily among financially constrained firms. Moreover, the effect of R&D on distress risk is magnified during economic downturns. I also find that firms that have been previously successful in R&D or firms with high analyst coverage can mitigate the relationship between R&D and distress risk.     

Macroeconomic Conditions and the Puzzles of Credit Spreads and Capital Structure

I build a dynamic capital structure model that demonstrates how business cycle variation in expected growth rates, economic uncertainty, and risk premia influences firms' financing policies. Countercyclical fluctuations in risk prices, default probabilities, and default losses arise endogenously through firms' responses to macroeconomic conditions. These comovements generate large credit risk premia for investment grade firms, which helps address the credit spread puzzle and the under‐leverage puzzle in a unified framework. The model generates interesting dynamics for financing and defaults, including market timing in debt issuance and credit contagion. It also provides a novel procedure to estimate state‐dependent default losses.