ICT Investment and Economic Growth in the 1990s: Is the United States a Unique Case?: A Comparative Study of Nine OECD Countries

This paper compares the impact of information and communication technology (ICT) capital accumulation on output growth in Australia, Canada, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Over the past two decades, ICT contributed between 0.2 and 0.5 percentage point per year to economic growth, depending on the country. During the second half of the 1990s, this contribution rose to 0.3 to 0.9 percentage point per year. Despite differences between countries, the United States has not been alone in benefiting from the positive effects of ICT capital investment on economic growth nor was the United States the sole country to experience an acceleration of these effects. ICT diffusion and ICT usage play a key role and depend on the right framework conditions, not necessarily on the existence of a large ICT-producing sector.     

中国经济与美、日经济波动的相关性研究

中国经济与美、日经济波动有很强的相关性和长期的均衡关系，美国经济与中国经济间有正向关系；日本与中国经济间却是负向关系。美、日两国经济的共同波动会通过资本流动的渠道影响中国。因此，为了降低美日经济波动对中国的影响，中国贸易必须走多元化的路子，而且应减少对国外资金流入的依赖。     

CROSS-COUNTRY EVIDENCE ON OUTPUT GROWTH VOLATILITY: NONSTATIONARY VARIANCE AND GARCH MODELS

This paper revisits the issue of conditional volatility in real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates for Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Previous studies find high persistence in the volatility. This paper shows that this finding largely reflects a nonstationary variance. Output growth in the six countries became noticeably less volatile over the past few decades. In this paper, we employ the modified iterated cumulative sum of squares (ICSS) algorithm to detect structural change in the variance of output growth. One structural break exists in each of the six countries after identifying outliers and mean shifts in the growth rates. We then use generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) specifications, modeling output growth and its volatility with and without the break in volatility. The evidence shows that the time-varying variance falls sharply in Canada and Japan, and disappears entirely in Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and the United States, once we incorporate the break in the variance equation of output for the six countries. That is, the integrated GARCH (IGARCH) effect proves spurious and the GARCH model demonstrates misspecification, if researchers neglect a nonstationary variance. Moreover, we also consider the possible effects of our more correct measure of output volatility on output growth as well as the reverse effect of output growth on its volatility. The conditional standard deviation possesses no statistical significance in all countries, except a significant negative effect in Japan. The lagged growth rate of output produces significant negative and positive effects on the conditional variances in Germany and Japan, respectively. No significant effects exist in Canada, Italy, the United Kingdom, and the United States.     

THE SOVIET PATH TO ECONOMIC GROWTH: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

Considerable attention has been devoted in the past to the methodological issues involved in the measurement and explanation of economic growth. Following the method pioneered by Denison and applied by him to the United States and Western Europe, comparative studies have been made of various other countries; that for Japan is of special interest. The present paper extends the analysis to the Soviet Union. In order to preserve comparability, the analysis follows the Denison methodology exactly, and compares the results with those for the United States, Northwest Europe, and Japan.     

TPP语境下版权保护期限的经济分析

在TPP影响日益扩大的情况下,中国据其采取相应的对策已经不可避免。由于美国主导下的TPP对知识产权领域的重视以及美国和中国在版权保护期限上的明显差异,中国在TPP语境下面临着是否延长版权保护期限的困境。文章基于预期效用函数理论,建立了版权保护期限对社会总体福利产生影响的线性模型,并据此对不同的版权保护期限产生的经济影响进行相应的分析。根据分析结果和现实的版权保护期限互相印证,可以发现过长和过短的版权保护期限均会损害社会总体福利,而且欠发达社会的最佳版权保护期限要短于发达社会。因此,中国作为发展中国家的一员,虽然在经济建设上已经取得了相当的成就,但在创意产业方面仍然落后于欧美日等创意产业发达的国家,应当采取的最佳版权保护期限肯定要低于欧美日等发达国家。中国不能为了加入WTO而盲目迎合美国的版权保护期限标准,而必须根据自身的经济利益确定是最适当的版权保护期限。     

Catching Up and Convergence: Long-run Growth in East Asia

The paper attempts to combine the traditional learning model with the recent theory of economic growth using Maddison's long‐run real GDP per capita data of the three fastest growing countries in East Asia: Korea, Taiwan, and Japan. The authors first explain games of catching‐up among nations, and then explain the learning coefficients of Taiwan and Korea with Japan and the United States through periods before and after World War II. The model of leaning leads to the logistic model of economic growth of convergence between two countries. Using time‐series data, the coefficients of a logistic model are estimated to confirm that the real GDP per capita of Taiwan and Korea are converging to that of Japan and the United States, respectively. Similarly, Japan's GDP per capita converges to that of the United States. The time required for finite convergence for these countries is also estimated.     

Assessment of the effect of the financial crisis on agents’ expectations through symbolic regression

Agents’ perceptions on the state of the economy can be affected during economic crises. Tendency surveys are the main source of agents’ expectations. The main objective of this study is to assess the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on agents’ expectations. With this aim, we evaluate the capacity of survey-based expectations to anticipate economic growth in the United States, Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom. We propose a symbolic regression (SR) via genetic programming approach to derive mathematical functional forms that link survey-based expectations to GDP growth. By combining the main SR-generated indicators, we generate estimates of the evolution of GDP. Finally, we analyse the effect of the crisis on the formation of expectations, and we find an improvement in the capacity of agents’ expectations to anticipate economic growth after the crisis in all countries except Germany.     

Global and Regional Geo-strategic Implications of China's Emergence

Now that China's "re-emergence" as a world center of production is obvious, concerns about its implications are being raised throughout the world, in general, and particularly in East Asia. China's economic growth is nothing but spectacular. If all parties are rational, however, a peaceful rise for China is possible. Peaceful management of the Taiwan Strait is critical in this respect. There are two possible scenarios for the peaceful rise of China: a unilateralist China in the multipolar world of competition, and a multilateralist, postmodern China embedded in an East Asian community. It is in the interest of Japan, the United States and other countries in the international society to induce China to take the latter scenario. To realize this goal, efforts on the part of China are critical, but the efforts of other countries such as the United States and Japan are also very important.     

Household Saving in Japan

Recent research has indicated that Japanese and American saving behaviour may not be fundamentally different. In this paper we have tried to determine if aggregate saving in Japan, as in the United States, is driven by a small number of very wealthy or high-income households. We found that about 12% of households account for 75% of total positive saving, 75% of total negative saving and 75% of total net saving. These conclusions reinforce the hypothesis that the savings process in Japan is not distinctive, and highlight the importance of research on the heterogeneity of saving behaviour.
JEL Classification Numbers: D12, D31, E21.     

货币升值对经济增长影响的国际比较及启示

首先对日本、德国、美国和东亚国家货币升值对各自国家经济增长的影响进行国际比较,然后对1990年后日本经济增长率大幅下降的原因进行分析,指出目前中国的经济与1990年代的日本经济存在巨大的差异,人民币适度升值不会引起中国经济增长率的大幅下降,人民币升值应遵循主动性和渐进式原则.     

The determinants of economic growth of transition economies: Economic reform versus initial conditions

Abstract

This study analyzes factors for economic recovery of transition economies in Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States for the period of the 1990s. Covariance structure analysis is employed to estimate the structural equation system, and exploratory factor analysis is conducted to measure initial conditions and economic policy as latent variables. The result of analysis shows that the effect of initial conditions is negative and the impact of economic reform on growth is positive. However, the negative effect of initial conditions had overridden the positive impact of economic policy as of 2000. The reason that transition economies could not recover their pre-transition GDP level (even after ten years of transition history) seems to stem from the negative influence of initial conditions on growth rather than the slow speed of economic reform.     

Income inequality and economic incentives: Is there an equity–efficiency tradeoff?

What is the basis and direction of relationship between income inequality and economic growth? The equity versus efficiency dictum which predicts a positive relationship between inequality, capital formation, and real GDP growth—emphasizes the importance of economic incentives. Subsequently, this was challenged by the incomplete markets and political outcomes theories, because of increasing empirical evidence of an inverse relationship between income inequality and economic growth. In this paper, we offer a further explanation of the basis and nature of the inequality–capital–growth relationship which emphasizes the divergence between savings and investment. For the United States over the period 1970–2006, we have found no empirical evidence for the support of the equity versus efficiency hypothesis—that economic incentives are necessary for capital accumulation and growth. In fact, it was discovered that in most cases, inequality has had little or no impact on movements in the US capital stock, net investment, and consequently, economic growth. Another interesting finding of this study was that inequality exhibits hysteresis—implying that any positive shock, such as the dot-com boom, can lead to persistent and enduring increases in inequality.     

Transfers among divorced couples: evidence and interpretation

An analysis of the economic impact of divorce settlements in the United States is presented using data for a white cohort taken from the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972. "The effects of spouses' incomes on the divorce transfer are estimated and used to simulate the welfare effects of divorce on husbands, wives, and children under alternative assumptions about marriage contracts and the ability of a couple to continue coordinating resources in the aftermath of divorce. We find a positive (negative) relationship between divorce transfers and the growth of husband's (wife's) earnings during marriage. The estimated expenditure on children in the divorce state is only half the accustomed level during marriage."     

基于货币需求的货币替代研究——以台湾为例

台湾曾经是日本的殖民地,且因地理位置的关系,所以日本一直都是台湾的主要贸易国家,以致于长期对台湾货币体系及外汇市场的影响力不亚于美国。然而过去对于台湾货币需求的研究,多半以美国作为主要对象国家来研究。现如今民众可多元地持有国际性资产,单一探讨美国的影响或许不够全面。本文根据1985-2008年的资料,研究美国和日本的货币性冲击对台湾货币需求的影响。首先通过台湾对美、日的贸易比重,编制有效汇率和有效利率,作为衡量来自两国货币性冲击的依据。其次以向量误差修正模型进行分析,找出台湾货币需求的长期均衡关系,发现台湾的货币需求与本国产出、本国利率、美日两国有效利率及有效汇率等存在显著长期均衡关系。简言之,台湾货币体系对来自美国和日本的干扰因素,具有高度的敏感性。     

Income Inequality and Economic Growth: Evidence from American Data

While most cross-country studies find a negative relationship between income inequality and economic growth, studies that use panel data suggest the presence of a positive relationship between inequality and growth. This paper uses a cross-state panel for the United States to assess the relationship between inequality and growth. Using both standard fixed effects and GMM estimations, this paper does not find evidence of a positive relationship between inequality and growth but finds some evidence in support of a negative relationship between inequality and growth. The paper, however, shows that the relationship between inequality and growth is not robust and that small differences in the method used to measure inequality can result in large differences in the estimated relationship between inequality and growth.     

美国自华进口对其经济增长的影响

本文利用协整分析与Granger因果检验方法,对美国自华进口对美国经济增长影响进行了实证研究。研究认为,美国GDP增长与美国自华制成品进口间呈反向长期均衡关系,与自华初级产品进口问则没有这种均衡关系,但美国自华制成品进口不是引致美国GDP下降的原因。美国不应将其经济增长趋缓或下降归咎于中国,中国也应通过扩大进口缓解当前的国内流动性过剩。     

Impact of Immigrant Peers on Native Students’ Achievement: Evidence from Australia,Canada and the United States

This article examines how exposure to immigrant students affects the achievement of native students in Australia, Canada and the United States. Variation in the share of immigrant students across different grade levels within schools is exploited to identify the impact of immigrant peers. The study finds that the effects on native students’ achievements of exposure to immigrant peers differ between the three countries. While exposure has a positive impact on Australian natives, it has a negative impact on Canadian natives. Exposure has no effect on US natives. How immigrant students affect their peers is found to depend on institutional arrangements within the education system.     

Are the budgets of state and local governments destabilizing? A six country comparison

This study uses estimates of the annual impact of changes in state and local government budgets during the period 1955–1965 for six countries: Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, and the United States. These, in turn, are compared with the GNP growth rate in order to evaluate the contribution to short-run stabilization.The conclusions are that the year-to-year impact of the state and local sector was substantially smaller than that of the central government; and this is true for countries like Germany and the United States, which have large state-local sectors, as well as for countries like Belgium and France, where the state-local sector is quite small. Also, the impact tends not to vary over the cycle as much as that of central government. Germany was the country where budgetary change made the largest contribution to economic stability, but the effects in all other countries except Belgium were also positive (albeit to a much smaller degree).     

Central city crime and suburban economic growth

This paper explores the relationship between inner-city crime patterns and suburban income growth, analysing data on 318 US counties for selected metropolitan statistical areas of 32 states within the United States from 1982 to 1997. The findings suggest that violent crime does seem to have a negative impact on close-in suburbs, with a less negative impact farther away from the central city (becoming positive at some point). While results are not as robust as we had hoped they are consistent with flight to further-out suburbs rather than migration to different metropolitan areas in response to urban crime.     

中国未来经济增长及其国际经济地位展望

论文在分析国内外历史资料和经济增长因素的基础上 ,对中国和目前经济总量世界排名前五位国家的未来经济增长率、国内生产总值以及中国人均国内生产总值进行了预测 ,得出以下基本结论 :中国国内生产总值将于 2 0 0 5年超过法国 ,2 0 0 6年超过英国 ,2 0 1 2年超过德国 ,本世纪中叶 ,有可能超过日本 ,成为世界第二经济大国 ,但在本世纪内很难超过美国 ,成为世界第一经济大国 ;2 0 50年中国人均国内生产总值将达到中等发达国家 2 0 0 0年的水平。