A monthly econometric model of the transmission of the Great Depression between the principal industrial economies

This article describes and estimates, with monthly data, a model of the economic interactions between the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany over the years 1927–1936. Despite the radically different economic environment, the model shows broadly similar qualitative and dynamic responses to policy instruments and other changes to those of multi-country models estimated on more recent data. The model is simulated to assess the causes of the Great Depression and the particular contribution of European and American policies to the slump. Optimum strategic policy equilibria are then computed. They point to the mismanagement of the US economy as the principal cause of the depression, although French and German policies were also harmful. British policymakers performed rather well, but their economy suffered because of the other countries’ policy errors.     

Service quality,scale economies and ownership: an econometric analysis of water supply costs

Issues related to service quality are crucial for water utility management and regulation. Omitting these aspects, especially when they are treated as exogenous, can lead to large biases in estimating cost functions as well as to misleading information concerning technology. In this article, we integrate the output multi-dimension in the cost function, considering delivered water volume and service quality as being endogenous. Network-related scale measures and private versus public ownership are investigated with the objective of evaluating how endogenous quality may affect their impact on costs. A translog cost model is estimated from a dataset of US water utilities. It is shown that including the quality level of the delivered services has a significant impact on scale economies and ownership effects. Significant economies of scope confirm the existence of trade-offs between water production and service quality.     

Some unfamiliar dynamics of a familiar macro model a note

The idea that for small disturbances the full employment equilibrium is stable while for large disturbances it is unstable was coined by Leijonhufvud in the notion of a corridor. We discuss the existence of a corridor in the standard Keynesian-monetarist textbook macro-model. It turns out that though the full employment steady state of this model may be locally stable — which is the case when the well-known Cagan condition holds — the model is never globally stable. This is due to the inherent non-linearity in the demand for money function, arising from non-negativity of the nominal rate of interest. Thus, perhaps surprisingly, the Cagan condition is both necessary and sufficient for the existence of a corridor in the Keynesian-monetarist model.This note is adapted from a paper presented at the European Meeting of the Econometric Society, Bologna, August 1988. I would like to thank Søren Bo Nielsen and Peter Birch Sørensen (Copenhagen Business School), Thomas Lux (University of Bamberg), and two anonymous referees for helpful comments and suggestions. Remaining errors and shortcomings are mine.     

The cyclical behavior of job creation and job destruction: A sectoral model

Summary Three key features of the employment process in the U.S. economy are that job creation is procyclical, job destruction is countercyclical, and job creation is less volatile than job destruction. These features are also found at the sectoral (goods and services) level. The paper develops, calibrates and simulates a two-sector general equilibrium model that includes both aggregate and sectoral shocks. The behavior of the model economy mimics the job creation and destruction facts. A non-negligible amount of unemployment arises due to the presence of aggregate and sectoral shocks.We thank Jeffrey Campbell, Richard Rogerson and two referees for helpful comments. We are grateful to M.J.D. Powell for providing us with his GETMIN FORTRAN subroutine.     

Existence and uniqueness of stochastic equilibrium in a simple macro model

This paper demonstrates that even the simplest rational expectations macro model may be plagued by nonexistent or multiple equilibria. The reason for these problems is the postulated existence of risk-averse behavior on the part of labor suppliers and purchasers of durable commodities. This risk-averse behavior introduces the price forecast variance into the behavioral parameters of the model, thus leading to a simultaneous nonlinear system.     

Micro and macro elasticities in a life cycle model with taxes

We build a life cycle model of labor supply that incorporates changes along both the intensive and extensive margin and use it to assess the consequences of changes in tax and transfer policies on equilibrium hours of work. We find that changes in taxes have large aggregate effects on hours of work. Moreover, we find that there is no inconsistency between this result and the empirical finding of small labor elasticities for prime age workers. In our model, micro and macro elasticities are effectively unrelated. Our model is also consistent with other cross-country patterns.     

The federal reserve board MPS quarterly econometric model of the US economy

This paper describes the structure and properties of the Federal Reserve Board's (MPS) econometric model of the US economy. The theoretical underpinnings are developed using a small growth model that is a simplified version of the steady-state structure of the full model. Short-run dynamic properties, which are Keynesian, are discussed and quantified with simulation results. The largest part of the paper consists of a discussion of the theoretical basis and empirical properties of the key behavioural equations. A complete list of equations is included.     

An econometric model of structural change: a case study of Canada

The study postulates that structural change in a resource-based economy can, in large part, be explained by the behaviour of the relative wages. Different wage responses in tradeable and non-tradeable sectors create, over the course of the business cycle, a ‘ratchet effect’ which gradually squeezes the tradeable sector relative to the non-tradeable sector. Although the analysis is undertaken mainly within the Dutch-disease framework, an econometric model incorporating key elements of various views on the subject is tested for Canada. The results are consistent with the predictions of the model.     

An econometric model of tenure choice and demand for housing as a joint decision

This paper models a household's choice of tenure and demand for housing services as a joint decision imposing the restriction that both discrete and continuous decisions are derived from a single preference ordering. The utility index for households is the translog form of the reciprocal indirect utility function allowing for random preferences. Each household chooses between the two main tenures, the owner-occupied and subsidised rental sectors, but households may be rationed in either or both of these sectors and refused admission, in which case they are assumed to enter the third sector, uncontrolled rental. The model is estimated on UK data for 5895 households.     

Transportation,economic growth and spillover effects: The conclusion based on the spatial econometric model

This paper tests the external spillover effects of the transportation on China’s economic growth from the theoretical and the empirical perspectives. Based on a logarithm production model, this study first proves the existence of the positive externality in the transportation. After that, the authors collect the data of the 28 provinces in China from 1985 to 2006, and use a relatively advanced spatial econometric method to test the positive externality. After constructing a spatial econometric model, the authors use the Maximum Likelihood (ML) method to estimate this model. According to the theoretical model and the empirical results, this article reaches the following conclusion: (1) The positive externalities in the transportation do exist; (2) From 1985 to 2006, the transportation contributed 24.8 billion yuan to China’s GDP every year: in this 24.8 billion yuan, 19.6 billion comes from the direct contribution and the rest 5.2 billion comes from the external spillover effects; (3) The summation of the direct contribution and the external spillover effects to the economic growth is on average 13.8% every year.     

2005年世界经济:趋势、影响及对策

从某种意义上讲,刚刚过去的2004年是世界经济发展的一个颠峰之年。自2003年下半年世界经济形势出现明显好转后,2004年世界经济呈现快速而广泛的增长态势,不仅增速进一步加快,而且增势好于预期,有望成为近30年来世界经济增速最高的一年。据主要国际经济组织预测,2004年世界经济平均增速将达到4-5%,比2003年高1-1.5个百分点。在经历了强劲增长之后,加上高油价及一些主要经济体采取宏观调控措施等因素的影响,人们普遍预计,2005年的世界经济会继续维持增长势头,但增幅将较上年有所减缓。主要国际经济组织发布的初步预计表明,2005年全球经济增长…     

新冠肺炎疫情对世界经济的影响分析

新型冠状肺炎病毒疫情突发,正从局部向全球扩散,对世界经济的影响正在发酵且不断蔓延,2020年世界经济继续放缓的风险进一步加大,不排除个别国家出现经济衰退的可能性。作为世界第二大经济体,中国经济自身即受到疫情影响,也会有溢出,中国经济率先走出疫情意义重大。尽管疫情终将被控制,一系列措施也会使经济走出低谷,但风险依然存在。中国经济外部环境更加严峻、拯救经济的政策风险后遗症以及全球供应链产业链重置的挑战都不可低估。     

A comment: On the number of nonzero eigenvalues of a dynamic linear econometric model

Relying upon qualitative information, Schoonbeek [3] states that there are at most 10 nonzero eigenvalues for each of four alternative versions of an econometric model of the Federal Republic of Germany. Using also exclusively qualitative information about the model we show that the number of nonzero eigenvalues is at most 7.     

The interactions between national systems and sectoral patterns of innovation

Do national and sectoral innovation systems interact with each other? The paper explores this unexplored question by carrying out a cross-sector cross-country analysis of European systems of innovation in the 1990s. The empirical study takes Pavitt’s (Res Policy 13:343–373, 1984) taxonomy as a starting point, and it investigates the cross-country variability of Pavitt’s sectoral patterns of innovation. The analysis leads to three main results. First, the various technological trajectories show large differences across countries, due to the influence of national innovation systems. Second, there is evidence that the interaction between national systems and sectoral patterns of innovation constitutes an independent source of variability in the sample. Third, the analysis leads to the identification of eight sector- and country-specific technological trajectories in European manufacturing industries, and, based on that, proposes a refinement of Pavitt’s taxonomy. The refined taxonomy, in a nutshell, suggests that sectoral systems must be supported by and interact with their respective national systems in order to become industrial leaders.     

A development model of developing economies with capital and knowledge accumulation

This study suggests a model of economic development which treats knowledge accumulation as an endogenous variable. It examines possible dynamic processes in an economic system which accumulates knowledge from developed nations. We describe the dynamics of the system by the interactions of three variables—economic conditions, level of knowledge, and openness. The introduction of openness as an important endogenous variable is due to the fact that the development model considered here is primarily concerned with the economic dynamics of the People's Republic of China. We are especially interested in nonlinear phenomena such as catastrophes and limit cycles. We show that small shifts in political policies may result in great social structural changes.The author is very grateful to two anonymous referees for important comments and to an anonymous referee for linguistic help.     

The foundations of trust: macro and micro

This comment on Beugelsdijk's (2006) critique of trust and itsmeasurement argues that it misses the mark, and that there isneither a theoretical nor an empirical foundation for thinkingthat the macro and micro foundations of trust or its measurementare different from each other. Generalised trust is more thana simple illusion hiding behind institutional structures.     

A percolation model of eco-innovation diffusion: The relationship between diffusion, learning economies and subsidies

An obstacle to the widespread adoption of environmentally friendly energy technologies such as stationary and mobile fuel cells is their high upfront costs. While much lower prices seem to be attainable in the future due to learning curve cost reductions that increase rapidly with the scale of diffusion of the technology, there is a chicken and egg problem, even when some consumers may be willing to pay more for green technologies. Drawing on recent percolation models of diffusion, we develop a network model of new technology diffusion that combines contagion among consumers with heterogeneity of agent characteristics. Agents adopt when the price falls below their random reservation price drawn from a lognormal distribution, but only when one of their neighbors has already adopted. Combining with a learning curve for the price as a function of the cumulative number of adopters, this may lead to delayed adoption for a certain range of initial conditions. Using agent-based simulations we explore when a limited subsidy policy can trigger diffusion that would otherwise not happen. The introduction of a subsidy policy seems to be highly effective for a given high initial price level only for learning economies in a certain range. Outside this range, the diffusion of a new technology either never takes off despite the subsidies, or the subsidies are unnecessary. Perhaps not coincidentally, this range seems to correspond to the values observed for many successful innovations.