新疆中小企业创新绩效与创新网络关系研究

创新网络有助于中小企业获取创新资源,提升创新绩效。本文从"关系"和"结构"两个维度分别选取关系强度、关系久度、网络规模和网络范围4个变量衡量创新网络的特质,运用结构方程模型对创新网络与中小企业创新绩效之间的关系进行实证分析。研究结果显示,网络规模、关系久度和网络范围对新疆中小企业创新绩效有正向影响,影响程度从强到弱依次为关系久度、网络规模和网络范围,关系强度的影响则不显著。     

社会资本、网络强度与企业管理创新

企业网络有利于内部成员之间知识和信息的共享,提高企业创新能力。网络强度是衡量企业关系紧密度的重要指标,反映企业信息传递效率,但是很多企业网络构建缺乏完善的理论指导,盲目增加网络强度不仅没有为其发展带来优势,反而容易忽视其他方面增加创新风险。文章分析社会资本影响网络强度和网络强度企业管理创新相互影响,提出应对措施。     

经济网络的不经济性分析

文章用复杂网络的研究方法来分析和定义经济网络,将经济网络定义为以经济组织为节点的一种无标度网络,并对经济网络的特点进行研究。经济网络是一种非均质网络,所以具有非均质网络的特点而具有马太效应;网络内的节点具有利益最大化倾向。经济网络的这两个特点导致的经济网络整体不经济。为了解决经济网络整体不经济现象,可以采用建立经济网络协调人制度的方法。通过经济网络协调人对经济网络内的资源的协调和调控能力,来使经济网络以整体方式运营,解决经济网络的不经济性现象,产生经济网络协同。     

人力资本分布不均等程度的衡量方法

除了人力资本水平外,人力资本分布均等程度也是影响经济增长的重要因素.对于从事人力资本分布均等程度与经济增长等相关问题研究的学者来说,全面了解人力资本分布不均等程度的测量方法至关重要.本文介绍了多种衡量人力资本分布不均等程度的指标和方法.     

网络环境下文献信息的检索

本文试图概括性描述网络环境下检索系统的结构、信息检索原理、检索策略和检索方法。     

中缅铁路工程建设中风险监测模型构建与实证检验

"一带一路"倡议自提出以来,中国企业承建海外基础设施项目日益增加。由于海外工程项目参与者众多、投资巨大、施工难度高,存在众多风险因素,现有的文献对于工程风险评估的研究大多存在数据主观性过大和无法逆向推理等问题。针对上述问题,文章提出了将三角模糊数与贝叶斯网络法相结合的风险评估方法。选取中缅铁路项目为研究对象,首先通过三角模糊数法将专家的评估数据转换为所需的模糊数语言,然后在构建贝叶斯网络后利用联合树法得出工程发生风险的概率,再通过正向和逆向推理,测算各风险因素对工程风险的影响程度,最终利用敏感性分析对各风险因素进行排序,确定影响工程风险的敏感因素。发现其政治风险、社会文化风险较高,自然风险、经济风险、技术风险较低,符合工程实际情况。与其他评估方法相比,该方法有效降低了数据主观性并且考虑了风险因素之间的相互作用与传递路径,使得评估结果具有更高的可靠性,有效完善了海外重大工程项目的风险评价体系。     

双重网络嵌入与企业创新绩效

企业是社会经济的最终执行者和最小组成单元,提升企业创新绩效是实现中国经济创新驱动发展的前提和保证。在嵌入式创新背景下,企业创新活动受到知识网络中知识元和协同网络中合作伙伴的双重影响。从网络结构视角研究知识网络嵌入和协同网络嵌入对企业创新绩效的影响,运用网络可视化技术构建武汉东湖高新区生物医药领域知识网络模型和协同网络模型,分析中心度和结构洞对于企业创新绩效的影响。结果表明：①企业创新绩效与知识网络中心度呈倒U型关系而与结构洞呈正相关关系;②企业创新绩效与协同网络中心度呈正相关关系而与结构洞程度关系不显著;③知识网络与协同网络相互分离无相关性。最后,从网络结构角度提出提升企业创新绩效的建议。     

我国关税的贸易保护水平分析

一、关税保护水平确定的理论依据 从理论上说,衡量关税对一国经济的保护程度主要有两个指标:名义关税率和有效关税率。名义关税率是海关对具体进口的某一种产品征收的税率,显然,这种名义关税率越高,则该国对这种进口替代产品保护程度就越高。与名义关税率相比,有效关税率更准确地衡量了对某一产业的保护程度。有效关税率提示了一个产业的关税贸易保护程度     

跨国公司与本土企业合作网络演化分析——以汽车行业为例

文章收集了自1985年至今我国汽车行业的5个骨干本土企业与跨国公司成立的合资公司的数据,并将其划分为三个时间区间,使用社会网络分析法从整体、个体及广度——深度分布三个方面分别对合作网络的演化过程进行了分析。研究表明:跨国公司与本土企业的合作网络呈现明显的阶段性特征;跨国公司与本土企业合作网络规模逐渐增大、资源互惠程度逐渐增加、资源分布范围越来越广并且部分企业掌握了网络的核心资源;本土企业由协调者转化为主导者,跨国公司由主导者转化为协调者。     

沪深300股指期货合约交易活跃程度影响因素分析

基于波动率和流动性指标对沪深300股指期货合约交易活跃程度的影响因素进行了分析,其中波动率包括现货和期货市场整体波动率指标,以及其中的连续性波动和跳跃波动成分,流动性指标采用Amihud非流动性指标,期货合约活跃程度采用交易额,未平仓合约数和交易量/未平仓合约数比率三个指标衡量。研究发现,现货市场波动率的增加反映了套期保值需求,期货市场波动率增加反映了投资者异质信念,均与三个交易活跃性指标存在正向关系,并且波动率的这种影响主要是通过连续性波动而非跳跃波动引起的;流动性的提高会促进交易额和未平仓合约数增加。     

物联网对经济的影响探析

物联网对经济发展产生了又一次信息推动,以实现人与物之间的实时信息传递改进社会活动过程中各种功能的运作方式、对经济效率产生推动,其功能在于以实时管理提高时间、空间上的资源配置效率、促进经济发展,提高社会运作效率,促进社会发展水平的提高;在微观层面改善人与物的关联,促进生活质量的提高。物联网的发展可以持续提高经济活动在各个方面的效率,不断降低各方面成本,因此可以为经济的良性发展产生推动作用,是经济复苏和发展的有效路径。物联网对于经济发展的引领主要在于其在技术上和生产方式、流通方式等方面所带来的创新。物联网与经济增长相互依存,是经济增长的主要构成要素,是经济系统形成与发展的一种主导力量。此外,物联网的发展在长期会从根本上改变经济发展模式、人们的生活模式、活动方式,从而引起公共管理的相应变化并进一步深入影响社会经济发展。     

Uncertainty and the macroeconomy: evidence from an uncertainty composite indicator

This article proposes a uncertainty composite indicator (UCI) based on three distinct sources of uncertainty (namely financial, political, and macroeconomic) for the US economy on the period 1985–2015. For that, we use a dynamic factor model, summarizing efficiently six individual uncertainty proxies, namely two macroeconomic and financial uncertainty factors based on the unpredictability, a measure of (micro)economic uncertainty, the implied volatility index, the corporate bond spreads, and an index of economic policy uncertainty. We then compare the effects of uncertainty on economic activity when the UCI is used instead of individual uncertainty proxies in structural VAR models. The interest of our UCI is to synthesize theses effects within one measure of uncertainty. Overall, the UCI was able to account for the most important dynamics of uncertainty which play an important role in business cycles.     

Volatility in productivity and the impact on unemployment

Volatility, and the uncertainty it creates, has long been recognized as a factor in economic decision making. Since hiring occurs before shocks to productivity are realized, firms’ investment in new labour is inherently risky. How large a role uncertainty in productivity has on aggregate unemployment is an empirical question that we attempt to answer. In this paper we measure the impact of higher volatility in labour productivity on the unemployment rate in the U.S. economy using a SVAR-GARCH-M model. Using the conditional standard deviation of productivity innovations from a multivariate GARCH model to measure uncertainty, we provide compelling evidence that unemployment increases with volatility. This estimated relative effect is actually larger for positive productivity shocks leading to unemployment declines only 60% as large as would have occurred using models that exclude uncertainty.     

Economic policy uncertainty in the US and China and their impact on the global markets

The recent US-China trade conflict has caused substantial uncertainty in the global markets. What is the rationale of this conflict? Is the rising of Chinese economy imposing a realistic threat to the US-led post-war international system? Using economic policy uncertainty in each of these two key global economic players as a measure of policy stance, this paper builds a time series model following Diebold and Yilmaz (2014) to estimate the influence of both the US and China on several key international markets, namely, stock, credit, energy and commodity markets. We find that, although China has become more influential, the US's dominant position still holds in all the markets. The results suggest that concerns regarding China's competition with the US in shaping the global world order are more likely to be driven by political factors rather than economic motives.     

广义虚拟经济视角下物联网发展的现状研究

传统的狭义虚拟经济的发展,实现了实体经济的虚拟化,而网络和信息技术的发展又实现了虚拟经济实体化,在这两个过程的相互作用中,实体经济和虚拟经济逐渐趋于融合,但传统的虚拟资本理论忽略了人的心理活动,无法真正全面理解虚拟经济的价值创造,从而出现了新的经济形态——广义虚拟经济。物联网的出现正是网络发展的产物。随着网络信息的不断普及,各行各业纷纷通过网络形式打造属于自己的经营模式。本文将以广义虚拟经济为视角探索物联网的发展现状。     

Economic uncertainty in South Africa

The idea that heightened uncertainty among firms contributed to the Great Recession and the lacklustre subsequent recovery has inspired a substantial literature examining the impact of changes in uncertainty on output and investment decisions. Yet to date there has been little research on business uncertainty in emerging markets. This paper is one of the first to develop a set of survey-based proxies for business uncertainty for an emerging market, South Africa, based on micro-data from business tendency surveys. These survey-based proxies are combined with more common measures of uncertainty, based on financial data and text mining, to obtain a composite measure of economic uncertainty. The paper then examines whether the uncertainty indicators have plausible and significant relationships with real economic activity, even after controlling for other economic variables. The indicators exhibit a significant negative correlation with real GDP growth, consistent with the findings for developed countries, and a positive shock to uncertainty is generally followed by a significant decrease in real activity growth.     

The macroeconomic performance of the inflation targeting policy: An approach based on the evolutionary co-spectral analysis (extension for the case of a multivariate process)

This paper proposes a new methodology to check the economic performance of a monetary policy and in particular the inflation targeting policy (ITP). The main idea of this work is to consider the ITP as economically efficient when it generates a stable monetary environment. The latter is considered as stable when a long-run equilibrium exists to which the paths of economic variables (inflation rate, interest rate and GDP growth) converge. The convergence of the variables' paths implies that these variables are more predictable and implies a less uncertainty in the economic environment. To measure the degree of convergence between economic variables, we propose, in this paper, a dynamic time-varying variable presented in the frequency approach named cohesion. This variable is estimated from the evolutionary co-spectral theory as defined by Priestley and Tong (1973) and Priestley (1969, 1981, 52 and 53). We apply this theory to the measure of cohesion presented by Croux et al. (2001) to obtain a dynamic time-varying measure. In the last step of the study, we apply the Bai and Perron test (1998, 2003a,b) to determine the change in the cohesion path. The results show that the implementation of the ITP generates a high degree of convergence between economic series that implies less uncertainty into the monetary environment. We conclude that the inflation targeting generates a stable monetary environment. This result allows us to conclude that the ITP is relevant in the case of industrialized countries.     

Better Monetary Control May Decrease the Distortion of Stabilisation Policy: A Comment

Higher uncertainty about the effects of policy instruments reduces a policymaker's inclination to actively engage in shaping economic policy. If a credibility problem exists, then this is beneficial. However, in the case where the policymaker has private information about an economic shock, higher uncertainty is costly. Hence, the policymaker faces a trade-off when he decides on the degree of control of monetary instruments. It is shown that the optimal degree of uncertainty about the effects of policy depends on the economic preferences of the policymaker and the magnitude of the variance of the shock which is private information.     

The role of uncertainty in forecasting employment by skill and industry

We show that the macroeconomic uncertainty series from Jurado, Ludvigson, and Ng (2015) contains information to forecast employment. The results indicate that the uncertainty measure is weak at forecasting the skilled labour but significantly carries forecasting information on the unskilled labour. The forecasting information increases if the sample is restricted to construction and manufacturing industries. Using rolling regressions to conduct a simulated out-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that the uncertainty measure contains forecasting information for the unskilled labour in those industries for two quarters ahead. By providing detailed information about the forecasting power of uncertainty by skill and industry, this study will be helpful in designing more efficient labour market policies.     

“物联网+”对研发的影响研究

物联网是由感知层、传输层、应用层组成的智能化大数据网络,其本质特征表现为即时性、非接触性、可追溯性等。由“物联网+研发”形成的R&D物联网有效融合了物联网的本质特点,是对传统研发模式的变革,可以大大提高研发效率。就研发资源而言, “物联网+”对研发的影响主要通过对个人研发、团队研发、组织研发、组织间合作研发的影响等途径实现。每个企业只有结合自身特点,应对和利用“物联网+”对研发产生的影响,才能有效提高研发效率。