我国银行间市场资金面影响因素的探讨——兼对当前市场流动性状况的分析与展望

梳理银行间市场资金面的影响因素,对于分析市场资金面的供求关系,央行评估货币政策执行效果,以及金融机构进行资产组合配置都有积极作用。文章从货币政策、商业银行存贷款增量、央行外汇占款、税收因素等多个角度,梳理了影响我国银行间市场资金面的八项因素,并在此基础上分析了今年5月份以来银行间市场资金面快速趋紧的成因。三季度,受CPI冲高回落、重申人民币汇改以及大型商业银行流动性状况好转等因素影响,银行间市场资金面紧张的格局将逐步改善。     

2010年3季度银行间市场运行报告

2010年第三季度,银行间市场创新频出、整体运行平稳。银行间外汇市场引入人民币兑林吉特交易,支持跨境贸易人民币结算业务的发展;人民银行发布通知允许境外人民币清算行等三类机构进入银行间债券市场,拓宽人民币回流渠道;银行间市场贷款转让业务上线交易,丰富银行业金融机构主动管理资产的手段。第三季度,货币市场资金面复杂多变,短期货币市场利率波动明显,市场交易大幅增长;银行间国债指数继续上行,债券交易增长明显;外汇市场上人民币汇率连创新高,价格波动较大,市场交易趋于谨慎;利率和汇率衍生品市场整体保持较快发展。     

结售汇如何影响银行风险承担水平?——基于银行资产负债表的视角

本文构建了一个基于银行资产负债表的理论模型,研究了结售汇对银行风险承担水平的影响机制,并采用结售汇报表数据进行实证检验。结果表明,为实现利润最大化,银行会将外汇流入创造的流动性用于投放较高风险的贷款,导致净结汇对银行风险承担水平有正向影响,异质性分析结果显示大型银行受影响程度高于中小银行。本文结论意味着,当考虑结售汇波动可能进一步加剧时,有必要出台更多结构性政策,补足外汇流入减少带来的货币缺口,优化存款市场结构,稳定金融机构流动性预期,以缓冲外需冲击可能带来的影响,并激励银行服务重心进一步下沉,为小微企业提供更多信贷支持,完成好金融服务实体经济的重要使命。     

2011年5月银行间市场运行报告

2011年5月,银行间市场平稳运行,交易量稳步增长。主要特点是：货币市场资金面大幅收紧,短期利率全线大涨;银行间国债指数继续上行,收益率曲线平坦化;人民币外汇即期市场主要汇率趋稳,交投活跃,非美货币中间价波动剧烈;人民币利率互换交易量显著增长,短期化特征依然明显;人民币外汇期权交易放大,外汇衍生品市场发生结构性变化。     

Quantifying preferential trading in the e-MID interbank market

Interbank markets allow credit institutions to exchange capital for purposes of liquidity management. These markets are among the most liquid markets in the financial system. However, liquidity of interbank markets dropped during the 2007–2008 financial crisis, and such a lack of liquidity influenced the entire economic system. In this paper, we analyse transaction data from the e-MID market which is the only electronic interbank market in the Euro Area and US, over a period of 11 years (1999–2009). We adapt a method developed to detect statistically validated links in a network, in order to reveal preferential trading in a directed network. Preferential trading between banks is detected by comparing empirically observed trading relationships with a null hypothesis that assumes random trading among banks doing a heterogeneous number of transactions. Preferential trading patterns are revealed at time windows of 3-maintenance periods. We show that preferential trading is observed throughout the whole period of analysis and that the number of preferential trading links does not show any significant trend in time, in spite of a decreasing trend in the number of pairs of banks making transactions. We observe that preferential trading connections typically involve large trading volumes. During the crisis, we also observe that transactions occurring between banks with a preferential connection occur at larger interest rates than the complement set—an effect that is not observed before the crisis.     

2011年7月银行间市场运行报告

2011年7月,银行间市场平稳运行,交易稳步增长。主要特点是：货币市场利率震荡下行,银行间国债收益率曲线上移明显;外汇即期市场交易延续活跃,外汇掉期曲线整体上移,汇率升值预期减弱,人民币外汇期权交易进一步活跃。人民币外汇掉期、远期净额清算试运行,净额清算业务向衍生品市场延伸。     

Did institutions herd during the internet bubble?

We examine the trading behavior of institutional investors during the internet bubble and crash of 1998–2001, and its impact on stock prices. Similar to some recent findings concerning the trading behavior of hedge funds and NASDAQ 100 stocks, we find that during the bubble all types of institutions herded with great intensity into internet stocks for a comprehensive sample of institutional investors and internet stocks. In addition to this, we present three entirely new results. First, institutional herding was much greater than what can be explained by momentum trading. Second, institutions as a group continued to increase their holdings of internet stocks for two quarters past the market peak during the first quarter of 2000, and three quarters past the peak for individual stock prices, suggesting that institutions were unable to time the price peaks. Finally and most importantly, we find positive abnormal returns contemporaneous with institutional herding and negative abnormal returns (reversals) at the point that herding ceased. This finding suggests that institutions’ trading created temporary price pressures, and may have contributed to the bubble.     

Interbank relationship lending revisited: Are the funds available at a similar price?

Under the market discipline hypothesis, monitoring by interbank lenders may induce changes in either the price or availability of new interbank funds to borrower banks. However, the presence of interbank relationship lending has been evaluated based on the availability of funds only—disregarding their price. We revisit relationship lending in unsecured interbank lending markets by simultaneously evaluating the availability and price of funds. We calculate the survival ratio of networks containing the price of daily interbank lending in Colombia from 2014 to 2020. Under this framework, an interbank relation survives from one day to the next if the funds are available at a price that does not increase too much; that is, either a halt in interbank funding or a sizeable increase in the price of interbank funding mark a break in the relation between two banks. We find that about 38 percent of relations in the Colombian unsecured interbank lending market survive from one day to the next. Therefore, from a comprehensive market discipline perspective, we find evidence of interbank relationship lending in Colombia.     

2011年8月银行间市场运行报告

2011年8月,银行间市场平稳运行,交易量较上月小幅增长。主要特点是：货币市场利率先抑后扬;银行间国债收益率曲线平坦化;人民币对美元汇率中间价升值步伐明显加快,交易价波动加剧;利率互换交易再创单月历史新高;外汇掉期曲线整体小幅上移,显示升值预期减弱;外汇即期竞价清算业务正式移交上海清算所。     

FX counterparty risk and trading activity in currency forward and futures markets

The Global Financial Crisis initiated a period of market turbulence and increased counterparty risk for financial institutions. Even though the Dodd–Frank Act is likely to exempt interbank foreign exchange trading from a central counterparty mandate, market participants have the option to trade currency futures on existing futures markets which standardize counterparty risks. Evidence for the period 2005–11 indicates that the market share of currency futures trading has grown relative to the pre-crisis period. This shift may be the result of a perceived increase in counterparty risk among banks, as well as changes in relative trading costs or changes in other institutional factors.     

人民币汇率双向波动，成交量大幅增长——2008年4月银行闻外汇市场运行简报

2008年4月，银行间外汇市场交易活跃，交易量总体大幅增长。与2007年同期相比，4月人民币外汇远期成交量同比增长17．gg％；人民币外汇掉期成交量同比增长64．16％；外币对成交量同比下降10．08％；外币拆借成交量同比下降14．86％。人民币兑美元汇率中间价首次突破7．0，人民币对美元、港元、日元、欧元和英镑汇率中间价均呈现明显双向波动态势。与2008年3月末中间价相比，4月末人民币兑美元汇率中间价累计升值0．27％。与2005年汇改当日中间价比，4月末人民币累计升值18．23％。     

Heterogeneous real-time trading strategies in the foreign exchange market

The foreign exchange (FX) market is worldwide, but the dealers differ in their geographical locations (time zones), working hours, time horizons, home currencies, access to information,transaction costs, and other institutional constraints. The variety of time horizones is large: from intra-day dealers, who close their positions every evening, to long-term investors and central banks. Depending on the constraints, the different market participats need different strategies to reach their goal, which is usually maximizing the profit, or rather a utility function including risk. Different intra-day trading strategies can be studied only if high-density data are available. Oslen & Associates (O & A) has collected and analysed large amounts of FX quotes by market makers around the clock (up to 5000 non-equally spaced prices per day for the German mark against US$). Based on these data, a set of real-time intra-day trading models has been developed. These models give explicit trading recommendations under realistic constraints. They are allowed to trade only during the opening hours of a market, depending on the time zone and local holidays. The models have been running real-time for more than three years, thus leading to an ex ante test. The test results, obtained with a risk-sensitive performance measure, are presented. All these trading models are profitable, but they differ in their risk behaviour and dealing frequency. If a certain profitable intra-day algorithm is tested with different working hours, its success can considerably change. A systematic study shows that the best choice of working hours is usually when the most important markets for the particular FX rate are active. All the results demonstrate that the assumption of a homogeneous 24-hour FX market with identical dealers, following an identical ‘rational expectation’, is far from reality. To explain the market dynamics, a heterogeneous model of the market with different types of dealers is more appropriate.     

2011年4月银行间市场运行报告

2011年4月份,银行间市场平稳运行,交易量继续稳步增长。其主要特点是：货币市场资金面逐渐收紧,短期利率有所上升;国债指数震荡上行,现券交易集中于中短期品种;人民币对美元汇率中间价升值速度加快,交易价波幅扩大,非美货币交易继续活跃;人民币外汇期权交易正式启航,人民币利率互换交易同比显著放大。     

Interbank market liquidity and central bank intervention

We develop a simple model of the interbank market where banks trade a long term, safe asset. When there is a lack of opportunities for banks to hedge idiosyncratic and aggregate liquidity shocks, the interbank market is characterized by excessive price volatility. In such a situation, a central bank can implement the constrained efficient allocation by using open market operations to fix the short term interest rate. It can be constrained efficient for banks to hoard liquidity and stop trading with each other if there is sufficient uncertainty about aggregate liquidity demand compared to idiosyncratic liquidity demand.     

银行间外汇市场的规模比较和因素分析

该文将我国银行间外汇市场规模水平与新兴经济体比较,发现市场的“换手率”偏低,市场交易的功能并不十分突出。通过进一步探索,从实证的角度发现和证明人民币汇率的可交易性不强,表现为汇率本身的波动性不足、市场流动性与市场成交水平弱相关、市场参与者的交易存在同质化现象、头寸等管理制度对参与者的交易行为具有明显的约束。文章最后研究了发达市场上汇率的交易状态以资借鉴。     

2011年11月银行间市场运行报告

2011年11月,银行间市场整体平稳运行,主要特点是：货币市场利率先平后扬;银行间国债收益率曲线整体下移;人民币对美元汇率中间价年内首次月度整体贬值;Shibor继续成为IRS交易主要的参考利率;外汇掉期曲线整体上移;银行间我汇市场本月新增人民币对澳元、加元交易,人民币外汇市场货币对增至9个。     

2014年3季度银行间市场运行报告

3季度,银行间市场的主要运行特点是：资金状况总体平稳,货币市场利率波动下行;债券市场维持震荡,期限利差进一步收窄;人民币互换利率震荡下行,曲线形态趋于平坦;人民币交易汇率单边升值,相对中间价偏离度由正转负;欧美经济表现及宽松政策不同,美元走势强劲;私人部门维持持汇信心,银行对市场主导力增强;外汇衍生品交投活跃,掉期曲线中长端显著上移,期权波动率小幅上行;零售外汇价差管理取消,外汇市场自律规范出台。     

积极支持银行间外汇市场的系统及产品建设

2008年2月26日,中国外汇交易中心发布2007年度银行间外汇市场优秀做市商、优秀会员和优秀交易员名单。根据此次评选．中国工商银行荣获最佳交易规范奖、交易优秀奖、最佳IT支持做市商三个奖项,该行交易员朱珩、江伟被评为优秀交易员。该行不仅在零售市场上表现突出,也在银行间外汇市场上积极支持中国银行间外汇市场的系统及产品建设工作。     

2012年1月银行间市场运行报告

2012年1月,银行间市场整体平稳运行。主要特点是：货币市场资金面节前趋紧,利率大幅波动;银行间国债收益率曲线短升长降;人民币对美元交易汇率重回双向波动;人民币外汇掉期单日成交创历史新高,掉期曲线平坦化,境内贬值预期明显减§;;美元看多期权成交比重显著下降。     

2012年上半年银行问市场运行报告

2012年上半年,银行间市场整体平稳运行,主要特点是：银行间各市场对各项货币政策操作反应灵敏;债券市场进一步对外开放,市场行情呈现慢牛走势;利率互换电子化交易确认和冲销业务正式推出降低参与者操作风险,提高交易效率;人民币对美元汇率波幅扩大,且在震荡中小幅走贬并出现贬值预期;人民币对日元直接交易的推出显著改善市场流动性;人民币远掉格局重构,外汇期权趋于活跃。