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基于我国大米对外贸易的现状,分别阐述了大米的出口、进口的相关状况以及现阶段大米贸易中存在的问题。在各种相关文献的理论基础上,基于引力模型,采用2008年我国大米出口截面数据,实证分析了我国大米对外贸易的影响因素,结果证实各进口国(地区)的GDP与我国大米出口呈正相关,而距离与我国大米出口负相关。 相似文献
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董桂才 《国际商务-(对外经济贸易大学学报)》2009,(3)
本文以各贸易伙伴国在我国农产品出口中的份额为被解释变量,构建了贸易引力模型,结果显示:进口国人均GDP、人口、人均水资源量、距离等是影响我国农产品出口市场结构的重要原因。回归模型的测算结果显示:我国对澳大利亚等22个国家的农产品出口份额还有进一步提高的潜力。如果把这些潜力都挖掘出来,使之达到理论的出口份额,则我国农产品出口过于集中于日、韩、美等市场的贸易格局将得到很大的改观,因此我国农产品出口市场结构还有进一步优化的空间。 相似文献
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当前山东省农产品的出口产品结构与市场结构的集中度都比较高,而且产品结构中传统大宗农产品的竞争力逐渐的下降,产品的加工程度较低,国际竞争力有逐渐下降的趋势。本文构建了山东省农产品出口结构影响成分的多元线性回归模型,结果发现,农产品出口结构与表示农业总产值、进口国人均GDP、山东省的人口规模、进口国的人口规模、山东省与进口国的距离和人民币汇率程度各个变量之间存在单向因果关系,对其进行多元线性回归是可行的。研究认为,山东省农业生产总值、目的市场国的国内生产总值和距离因素对山东省农产品结构指数变动的影响最为显著,并且山东省农业生产总值和目的国的国内生产总值对出口结构的变动具有正向影响,距离因素有负向影响。 相似文献
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文章剖析了汇率行为对我国出口贸易流向的影响,在理论分析基础上构建计量模型并以1999年1月到2015年12月为样本区间,对我国出口双边数据进行实证检验,结果表明我国出口贸易份额与人民币汇率、距离、我国物价水平负相关,与进口国需求能力以及进口国物价水平正相关,我国出口的初始条件和贸易政策对出口贸易流向的作用不显著。据此文章提出要适度增加汇率弹性,加强地区间的贸易合作等建议。 相似文献
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基于引力模型的我国木质家具出口市场结构分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
木质家具是林业产业的重要组成部分,我国是木质家具生产和出口第一大国。我国木质家具出口市场过于集中,已经成为非常突出的问题。从长远看,优化木质家具出口市场结构是促进我国木质家具行业发展的长期性战略。本文试图以2009年我国对各贸易伙伴的木质家具出口份额为被解释变量,将进口国家和地区2009年GDP总量、人口总量、人均GDP、人均森林面积、港口距离、是否是中国-东盟自由贸易区成员、是否是APEC成员、是否设置了严重的贸易壁垒作为解释变量,通过构建贸易引力模型分析我国木质家具出口的动因和影响因素,并测定了我国木质家具对各贸易伙伴的出口潜力,结果表明中国的木质家具出口市场结构具有集中性,存在进一步优化空间,为我国木质家具的出口提供政策启示。 相似文献
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出口专业化、空间依赖与我国地区经济增长 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
基于我国222个地级以上城市2001-2008年期间的样本数据,本文实证检验了出口结构与地区人均GDP增长率之间的关系。结果显示,出口集中度与地区经济增长之间存在显著正相关性,出口结构的专业化程度越高,地区人均GDP增长率相应越高。无论是采用经典OLS方法,还是采用控制空间依赖性的空间计量分析方法,这一结果均成立,其背后机制在于专业化导致生产活动的集聚,通过集聚经济提高生产率,从而促进人均产出的提高。本文政策含义在于,在当前发展阶段下,促进地区产业的集群化、专业化发展,充分发挥集聚经济,这对于扩大出口规模、推动地区经济增长具有积极意义。 相似文献
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The article sets out to examine whether the volume of bilateral trade between China and 40 of its trading partners in the up-, mid-, and downstream segments of the textile industry is affected by factors such as GDP, per capita GDP, geographic distance, FDI outflows and inflows, openness to trade, and bilateral investment treaties. The significant negative correlation between import/export volume and distance reflects the close trading relations between China and the other countries of East Asia. A home market effect is evident for downstream exports. China's FDI outflows stimulate growth in midstream textile product exports. 相似文献
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Ville Kaitila 《The World Economy》2019,42(3):711-737
We analyse the number of different HS8 products in the EU countries’ exports in 1995–2015. We review what share, or coverage, of the total possible number of these products the countries have exported each year. The EU15 countries have typically witnessed a slow rise in this coverage rate, that is, a widening of their extensive margins. The exception is Finland where the share has declined considerably. On the other hand, Ireland, Greece, Portugal and the new member countries have seen a dramatic increase in their export product coverage. We analyse how the development in the coverage rate and, as a comparison, the diversification of exports as measured by the Herfindahl–Hirschman index are associated with GDP per capita growth. We find that changes in the former measure are positively associated with economic growth after we have controlled for GDP per capita catching‐up as well as investment and export activity. We also find that smaller EU economies do not specialise more than large ones in their exports as could perhaps be assumed. 相似文献
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This article employs a spatial econometric model to examine whether China’s exports are affected by political risk, economic integration, and spatial effects. The results show that as China’s economy has grown, a home market effect is evident for its exports. A higher level of economic integration is beneficial to China’s exports. A substitutive relationship is discovered between China’s OFDI and exports. In addition, the higher income per capita of partner countries and the high degree of economic openness are both beneficial to China’s exports. The partner countries of China, with their higher values of export trade, have been mostly countries with lower political risk. 相似文献
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本文以中国与东盟间的双边贸易为研究对象,利用贸易引力模型分析中国与东盟之间贸易的决定因素。中国的GDP、东盟国家国的GDP和人均GDP对于中国-东盟贸易具有显著的促进作用,而中国的人均GDP和距离对于中国-东盟的贸易具有阻碍作用。 相似文献
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Azmat Gani 《The World Economy》2010,33(1):89-106
Australia and Pacific Island countries (PICs) have maintained an ongoing trade and economic relationship for several years. The determinants of trade between Australia and PICs are examined using a gravity model by utilising time‐series cross‐country data for the period 1981 to 2005. The empirical findings indicate that imports by PIC from Australia are significantly determined by PICs’ population and their per capita GDP. The results also suggest that PICs’ exports are significantly determined by PICs and Australia's population, PICs’ infrastructure (telecommunications) and the distance to Australia. Consistent with the findings of other studies using the gravity model, distance is found to be a friction to PICs’ exports to Australia. While this study identifies factors influencing PICs’ trade with Australia, a more substantial issue for the governments and trade policy makers in PICs is to look into the generally disappointing long‐term trade performance. From a policy perspective, PICs would need to seriously look at increasing their export potential. 相似文献
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本文分析了高收入国家与发达国家在概念上的差异,指出不能将世界银行认定高收入国家的标准,作为区分发达国家与发展中国家的标准。本文提出用发达国家末尾集团的人均GDP作为发达国家的"门槛线",并结合日本、韩国、新加坡等国的发展经验,以及国内各省人均GDP发展现状,做出了相应预测:我国人均GDP至少还需要十年才能够达到发达国家"门槛线"。据此,本文认为我国作为全球制造大国、贸易大国,既要认真考虑发展的外溢效应,承担相应大国责任;也要认清发展任务的艰巨性,以便更好地维护我国发展中国家的地位。 相似文献
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《食品市场学杂志》2013,19(4):69-90
Abstract Exports of dairy products are becoming increasingly important in terms of export earnings for Australia. The industry is the fourth highest foreign exchange earner compared to all Australia's food exports. However, Australian exports of dairy products account for about 67 per cent of the total Australian production of dairy products, and about 13 per cent of total world exports of dairy products. About 68 per cent of Australian dairy products exports are sold on Asian markets. The purpose of this paper is to examine the challenging issues and opportunities for Australian exports of dairy products on world markets and to identify potential and emerging export markets for Australian dairy products. Australia is highly restricted on its access to world dairy product markets by the impact of export subsidies and other trade barriers of overseas markets. The current economic and political crises in Asia are also not favourable to maintain export sales on some of the Asian markets. The export support scheme in Australia has made exporting attractive relative to domestic sales. But it is anticipated that the termination of the scheme after June 2000, will reduce production and exports by 6 and 20 per cent, respectively in the short run. However, in the long run, resources will be efficiently used without government intervention and Australian dairy products will also be competitive on the domestic market. There is scope for greater market opportunities in the emerging markets in Asia and other parts of the world for Australian dairy products. Australia will also benefit from the agreement on international trade that directs exporting countries to reduce export subsidy and remove nontariff trade barriers on exports of dairy products. Australia should implement appropriate measures to inaease the milk yield per cow, to improve the quality of dairy products and to identify the need for market promotion and research in order to increase the volume of dairy product exports on world markets, especially in Asia and other potential markets such as Middle East, Africa, Europe and the Americas. 相似文献