The sustainability of fiscal policies in the European Union

This paper examines the stationarity of the inclusive-of-interest public deficit for five European Union economies, four of them being recently selected for entry into the European Monetary Union. Unit root tests are used not only to examine structural breaks and cointegration analysis, but also to investigate for regime shifts. They support the occurrence of sustainable deficits for the Greek, Spanish, and Portuguese economies. On the contrary, Italy and Belgium may incur unsustainable deficits, implying that their selection in Phase 2 of the European Monetary Union is questionable. This paper was presented at the Forty-Fifth International Atlantic Economic Conference, Rome, Italy, March 14–21, 1998.     

Energy taxation in Southern Europe: The case of Portugal

We investigate whether or not the imposition of a common EC energy-tax will penalize more the poorer Southern European economies and if this will harm convergence at the EC level. We start by surveying briefly the existing studies and empirical evidence. Then we exploit the results obtained when using the macroeconometric HERMES models to simulate the introduction of an energy-tax. Unfortunately, as we only have HERMES results for one Southern European economy, Portugal, our conclusions are limited. Finally, we investigate convergence in Europe and the effects of energy taxation on convergence. We conclude that energy taxation will harm growth all over the EC, penalizing more one of the less developed countries, Portugal, and having most probably adverse effects on convergence.This paper was prepared for presentation at the Conference Energy Tax in Europe organized jointly by the SEO-University of Amsterdam and the DG XII of the CEC and held in Amsterdam on 13th December 1991. I would like to thank the participants in the Conference and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. Of course, the usual disclaimer applies.     

The Stability of Monetary Unions: Lessons from the Breakup of Czechoslovakia

In 1993, Czechoslovakia experienced a two-step breakup. On January 1, the country disintegrated as a political union, while preserving an economic and monetary union. Then, the Czech–Slovak monetary union collapsed on February 8. This paper analyzes the economic background of the two breakups from the perspective of the optimum currency area literature. The main finding is that the Czech and Slovak economies were vulnerable to asymmetric economic shocks, such as those induced by the economic transition. In particular, the stability of Czechoslovakia was undermined by the low correlation of permanent output shocks, low labor mobility, and higher concentration of heavy and military industries in Slovakia. J. Comp. Econom., December 1999, 27(4), pp. 753–781. Center for European Integration Studies (ZEI), University of Bonn, Walter-Flex-Strasse 3, 53113 Bonn, Germany, and Center for Economic Research, Tilburg University, Netherlands; Academia Istropolitana Nova, Bratislava, Slovakia, Central European University, Nador u. 9, 1051 Budapest, Hungary, and Center for European Integration Studies (ZEI), University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany; Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS), Stumpergasse 56, 1060 Vienna, Austria.     

Euro area inflation persistence

This paper presents evidence on the lag between monetary policy actions and the response of inflation in the euro area as a whole as well as in some of its core countries, notably Germany, Italy and France. In line with previous findings for the US and the UK, results here show that it takes over a year before monetary policy actions have their maximum effect on inflation both in the euro area and in individual countries and that a lag of this length has existed in Europe at least since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, despite the numerous changes in European monetary policy regime thereafter. Results based on alternative definitions of inflation persistence support these findings and indicate, if any, that transmission lags could be in fact much longer for individual countries and the euro area as a whole, although, at the country level, there is strong evidence over time of a drop in German inflation persistence and a sizeable shift in the mean of inflation – particularly in Italy and France. An examination based on results from this paper reveals that euro area inflation persistence could well be an intrinsic phenomenon rather than a ‘statistical fluke’ due to aggregation.This research was conducted during my visit at the European Central Bank Directorate Research, as part of the Research Visitor Programme. I would like to thank Anna Maria Agresti for providing individual country data from the macroeconomic database of the Monetary Transmission Network; Alistair Dieppe for providing data from the ECB area-wide model dataset; and Michele Manna for supplying me with the area-wide M3 data for the period 1970–1980. I thank Gabriel Fagan, Frank Smets, Ignazio Angeloni, Vítor Gaspar, Michael Ehrmann, Guenter Coenen, Oreste Tristani, Tommaso Monacelli, Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe and Gerhard Ruenstler for helpful discussions during my stay at the ECB. I would also like to thank seminar participants at the ECB for their input and I am very grateful to Jeffrey Fuhrer, Edward Nelson and Kenneth West, Bernd Fitzenberger and two anonymous referees for comments on an earlier draft. Any errors and omissions are mine. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and should not be attributed to the International Monetary Fund, its Executive Board, or its management     

Technology,convergence, and growth in the European Union

This paper contains an empirical analysis of growth and convergence in the European Union using a cross-country data set covering the period 1950–92. It seeks an answer to the question why some countries in Europe manage to catch up, while others, most notably the poorest ones, apparently do not. The empirical evidence provided in the paper points to several responsible factors. The distance of the economy to the technological leader differed across economies, which contributed to differences in convergence and growth behavior. In addition, the finding of conditional convergence implies that economies converge to different steady state levels of income per capita. Poor economies, like Portugal, Greece, Spain, and Ireland, presumably converge to a lower steady state level of income per capita, which leads to persistent differences in income per capita. Funding for this project was provided in part by the Securities Industry Foundation for Economic Education, the Council on Economic Education in Maryland, and the Towson State University Faculty Development and Research Committee.     

Theory of negative consumption externalities with applications to the economics of happiness

This paper investigates the problem of obtaining Pareto efficient allocations in the presence of negative consumption externalities. In contrast to the conventional wisdom, we show that even if consumers’ preferences are monotonically increasing in their own consumption, one may have to dispose of resources to achieve Pareto efficiency when negative consumption externalities exist. We provide characterization results on destruction both for pure exchange economies and for production economies. As an application, our results provide an explanation to Easterlin’s paradox: average happiness levels do not increase as countries grow wealthier. We thank an anonymous referee, Xiaoyong Cao, Li Gan, and Tapan Mitra for helpful comments and suggestions that improved the exposition of the paper. The first author thanks the National Natural Science Foundation of China and Private Enterprise Research Center at Texas A&M University for financial support.     

Monte Carlo simulation of macroeconomic risk with a continuum of agents: the general case

In large random economies with heterogeneous agents, a standard stochastic framework presumes a random macro state, combined with idiosyncratic micro shocks. This can be formally represented by a random process consisting of a continuum of random variables that are conditionally independent given the macro state. However, this process satisfies a standard joint measurability condition only if there is essentially no idiosyncratic risk at all. Based on iteratively complete product measure spaces, we characterize the validity of the standard stochastic framework via Monte Carlo simulation as well as event-wise measurable conditional probabilities. These general characterizations also allow us to strengthen some earlier results related to exchangeability and independence. Parts of this work were done while Yeneng Sun was visiting Stanford University in July 2003, March–May 2005 and July 2006, and while Peter Hammond was visiting the National University of Singapore in March–April 2004. An early version was presented at the World Congress of the Econometric Society in 2005.     

Testing the balanced growth hypothesis: evidence from China

We investigate whether China’s experience during 1952–2004 supports the balanced growth entailment of the neoclassical growth model. Estimation of long-run relations among output, consumption and investment for the full period reject the balanced growth hypothesis for both the national and regional economies. When the economic reforms of the late 1970s are modelled as a structural break by the methods of Johansen et al. (Economet J 3(2):216–249, 2000) and Perron (Econometrica 57(6):1361–1401, 1989), we find some evidence of balanced growth in the pre-break period but in the post-break period the ‘great ratios’ are trend-stationary, precluding fully balanced growth, though permitting a common (stochastic) productivity trend.      

Convergence Across the United States: Evidence from Panel ESTAR Unit Root Test

Many empirical studies try to test whether there is income convergence across metropolitan areas in the continental United States. Drennan et al. (Journal of Economic Geography 4(5), 2004) claim that income among metropolitan economies is diverging for the period 1969–2001, after applying univariate unit root tests to the time series data. This paper brings new information to this area of study by using the nonlinear panel unit root test of the Exponential Smooth Auto-Regressive Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ESTAR-ADF) unit root test on the time series data for the period 1929–2005. Our results find evidence of stationarity for time series and thereby support beta and sigma convergence among states in a nonlinear setup. However, when the non-linear test encompasses cross section dependence as advocated by Cerrato et al. (2008), the evidence is attenuated.     

Optimal balanced growth in a general multi-sector endogenous growth model with constant returns

I will study a multi-sector endogenous growth model with general constant returns to scale technologies and demonstrate the existence, uniqueness and the saddle-path stability of the balanced growth equilibrium. I will first demonstrate the existence of a balanced growth equilibrium, by showing that the balanced growth rate associated with the balanced growth equilibrium is solely determined by solving a Frobenius root problem of the price equations derived from the Euler equations and the property of the nonsubstitution theorem. Then I will show the saddle-path stability of the balanced growth equilibrium without any capital intensity conditions, which is a generalized property proved in the two-sector endogenous growth models by de Guevara et al. (J Econ Dyn Control 21, 115–143, 1997), Bond et al. (J Econ Theory 68, 149–173 1996) and Mino (Int Eco Rev 37, 227–251 1996). The theorem clearly implies that the balanced growth equilibrium has a transition path in the neighborhood of the balanced growth equilibrium. The paper was presented at the conferences “Irregular Growth: Beyond Balanced Growth” held on June 19–21, 2003 in Paris and “Economic Growth and Distribution: On the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations” held on June 16–18, 2004 in Lucca, Italy. From the discussion with Alain Venditti at CNRS-GREQAM, Gerhard Sorger at University of Vienna and the conference participants, I have been benefited much by writing this paper. Especially Alain Venditte had given me a chance to take a look at his unpublished paper titled ” Indeterminacy and the Role of Factor Substitutability” jointly written with Kazuo Nishimura at Kyoto University and published in Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 8. The author also would like to thank an anonymous referee for useful suggestions.     

Environmental Financing in European Economies in Transition

The paper offers a perspective on environmental predicament of economies in transition. Emphasis is put on how these economies finance their environmental needs. It is observed that the demand for environmental financing can be affected both by environmental policy measures (such as internalization of externalities) and by other factors (such as the softness of budget constraints faced by firms). The role of subsidies – in many countries of the Central and Eastern European region provided through special purpose ‘environmental funds’ – is then scrutinized. In particular the question is asked whether such funds crowd out commercial capital from the market. Conditions are discussed that would allow the funds to play their constructive environmental roles without crowding out private financing.     

Addiction and interaction between alcohol and tobacco consumption

This paper adopts a multi-commodity habit formation model to study whether unhealthy behaviors are related, i.e. whether there are contemporaneous and inter-temporal complementarities between alcohol and tobacco consumptions in Italy. To this aim time series data of per-capita expenditures and prices during the period 1960 to 2002 are used. Own price elasticities are negative and tobacco appears to be more responsive than alcohol demand, although both responses are less than unity. Cross price elasticities are also negative and asymmetric thus suggesting complementarity. A “double dividend” could then be exploited, because public policy needs to tackle the consumption of only one good to control the demand of both. These results show that the optimal strategy for maximizing public revenues would be to raise alcohol taxation more than tobacco taxation. Finally, past consumption of one addictive good does not significantly reinforce current consumption of the other. We thank participants to the Annual Conference of the European Society for Population Economics, Verona June 2006; the 61st European Meeting of the Econometric Society, Vienna August 2006, and participants of the conference “Individual and Collective Choices in Health Protection”, Genoa November 2005 for helpful comments. We would also like to thank, without implicating, Pier Luigi Rizzi and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. Financial support from the University of Siena, PAR grant (Atheneum Research Grant), is gratefully acknowledged.     

Market crashes,speculation and learning in financial markets

A natural conjecture is that if agents’ beliefs are almost correct then equilibrium prices should be close to rational expectations prices. Sandroni (J Econ Theory 82:1–18, 1998) gives a counterexample in an economy with sunspots and complete markets. We extend Sandroni’s result by showing that the conjecture is generically true for economies with complete markets. We consider a standard General Equilibrium model with large but finite horizon and complete markets. We show that, for almost every such economy, if conditional beliefs eventually become correct along a path of events then equilibrium prices of assets traded along this path converge to rational expectations equilibria in the sup-norm. Moreover, we establish that, generically, there exist along any such path local diffeomorphisms between individual beliefs and equilibrium prices. I would like to thank C. Ewerhart and A. Kirman for their comments, as well as the seminar participants at the University of Minho, the General Equilibrium Workshop 2005 in Zurich, and the 15th Asian General Equilibrium Conference 2007 in Singapore. An anonymous referee also provided very valuable comments.     

Incentives in market games with asymmetric information: the core

Summary. This paper examines the ex ante core of a pure exchange economy with asymmetric information in which state-dependent allocations are required to satisfy incentive compatibility. This restriction on players' strategies in the cooperative game can be interpreted as incomplete contracts or partial commitment. An example is provided in which the incentive compatible core with nontransferable utility is empty; the game fails to be balanced because convex combinations of incentive compatible net trades can violate incentive compatibility. However, randomization of such strategies leads to ex post allocations which satisfy incentive compatibility and are feasible on average. Hence, convexity is preserved in such a model and the resulting cooperative games are balanced. In this framework, an incentive compatible core concept is defined for NTU games derived from economies with asymmetric information. The main result is nonemptiness of the incentive compatible core. Received: December 26, 2001; revised version: June 11, 2002 RID="*" ID"*" This work was financed, in part, by contract No 26 of the programme “P?le d'attraction interuniversitaire” of the Belgian government, and, in part, by research grant SBR93-09854 from the U.S. National Science Foundation. Much of my thinking about this topic was developed during a wonderful visit to CORE for the 1991–1992 academic year (on sabbatical from the University of Pennsylvania). This paper was originally circulated in December 1991 as CARESS Working Paper #91-38, Center for Analytic Research in Economics and the Social Sciences, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and in February 1992 as CORE Discussion Paper 9221, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics, Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. RID="*" ID="*" At the very start of my research, Jean-Fran?ois Mertens was almost a co-author. Fran?ois Forges provided detailed comments at a later stage, during my visit to THEMA, Université Cergy-Pontoise, in Spring 1997. They are entitled to the customary disclaimer.     

Modeling the European cycle with factor structure and regime switching

This paper compares the stylized facts of the European growth cycle stemming from the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the European Monetary Union with an unobserved common factor derived from a dynamic factor model with regime switching. The aim of this paper is to provide empirical evidence about the most adequate indicator for short-term monitoring of the cyclical state of the European economy. Previous versions of this article have been presented at the 55th International Atlantic Economic Conference (Vienna, Austria, March 12–16, 2003) and at the VI Encuentro de Economía Aplicada (Granada, Spain, June 5–7, 2003). The author would like to thank the conference participants and an anonymous referee for their comments and suggestions.     

Asset trading volume in a production economy

Judd et al. (J Finance 63: 2203–2217, 2003) show that the stationary Lucas tree model cannot generate nontrivial asset trading: Heterogenous agents will optimally choose a fixed portfolio after initial rebalancing. This paper explores asset trading volume in production economies with heterogeneous agents and dynamically complete market structures. We establish a recursive version of the Negishi approach to prove the existence of a competitive equilibrium. Furthermore, we develop a general method to solve for equilibrium portfolios in production economies within a fairly general set of complete market structures. We thus establish the theoretical reasons why production economies in general generate a nontrivial volume of asset trading even if heterogeneity of the agents is kept to a minimum. We would like to thank W. Brock, D. DeJong and, especially, H. Ennis for comments and suggestions. We also thank seminar participants at Di Tella and San Andrés Universities (Argentina), the Institute for Advanced Studies (Austria), SED Meetings 2005 (Budapest) and SAET Conference 2005 (Vigo).     

Vertical Innovation and Catching-Up: Implications of EU Integration for CEECs-5

We analyze the role of vertical innovation in trade patterns for developing economies trading with technologically advanced countries. A model is presented where the international diffusion of knowledge, promoted by economic integration, is the source of a technological catching up and leads to a convergence in the quality of traded goods, with a positive effect on exports. We then turn our attention on the evolution of trade between the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs-5) and their European Union partner countries, assessing whether economic integration has increase the quality of the goods produced. For the period 1995–2005, we find evidence of the increasing role of intra-industry trade and vertical differentiation and a process of specialization in higher quality products, especially in the medium- and high-skill sectors.

Technology and incentive regulation in the Italian motorways industry

Making use of an original dataset containing information on 20 Italian motorways concessionaires over the 1992–2004 period, we study the technology prevailing in the motorways industry in Italy. We focus on the estimation of the technical progress for the years covered by our sample, and on the measurement of the economies of scale and density. We find that the industry has experienced significant technical progress and that there are sizeable economies of density and scale (at least up to a medium-large network size). These results provide valuable insights for regulatory purposes, notably for the definition of the optimal dimension of the network of a concessionaire and the correct setting of the X factor in the price cap formula, which is used to regulate the toll levels. We also control for the effects on the performance of the concessionaires due to the changes in the ownership structure and the regulatory regime, both introduced by the recent reform of the industry. We find that the productivity of the concessionaires has not increased with the adoption of a price cap regime, while it has benefited from the privatization process.      

Using volume to prove Sperner’s Lemma

We provide a novel proof of Sperner’s Lemma that is intuitive and elementary if certain simple properties of Lebesgue measure are known. The research of A. McLennan is partly funded by the Australian Research Council grant DP0773324. This paper was partly written while he was a member of the Discipline of Economics, The University of Sydney. McLennan also gratefully acknowledges the hospitality of the Economic Theory Center of the University of Melbourne. The research of R. Tourky is partly funded by the Australian Research Council grant A00103450. This paper was partly written while he was a member of the Department of Economics, Purdue University.     

Note on the non-existence of sunspot equilibrium

In this note, we emphasize the role of consumers’ risk aversion in the non-existence of sunspot equilibria in incomplete market economies. We prove that there are no sunspot equilibria if the fundamentals of the underlying economy admit a unique equilibrium for any distribution of endowments. This substantiates Mas-Colell’s (Economic analysis of markets and games: essays in honor of Frank Hahn. MIT, Cambridge, 1992) conjecture. We also prove that, in a two-consumer economy, no sunspot equilibrium exists under the more relaxed condition that the underlying economy admits a unique equilibrium for the initial endowment. This is a generalization of Corollaries 1 and 2 of Hens and Pilgrim (Econ Theory 24:583–602, 2004).