Wars are becoming less frequent: a response to Harrison and Wolf

Harrison and Wolf claim that interstate ‘wars are becoming more frequent’. This is an alarming claim deserving serious attention. It is also a highly surprising claim, since recent conflict research tends to find the opposite: incidences of violent conflict are becoming less frequent. We argue that Harrison and Wolf's claim is incorrect. We show empirically that interstate wars are in fact becoming less frequent. Other data on tensions between states below war, such as the Interstate Crises Behavior data, also suggest a decline in conflict between states. We detail how Harrison and Wolf's analysis is misleading, highlighting how their findings primarily arise as a likely artefact of their uncritical use of the Militarized Interstate Disputes (MIDs) data, and explaining why MIDs cannot be interpreted as ‘wars’. Given that Harrison and Wolf's basic premise is wrong, and wars are not becoming more frequent, we should be sceptical of their conclusions. We briefly revisit their suggested explanations for why wars may become more frequent in light of what we know about long‐term trends in warfare and research on interstate war.     

Why are there so many civil wars in Africa? Understanding and preventing violent conflict

Contrary to popular belief, Africa's civil wars are not dueto its ethnic and religious diversity. Using recently developedmodels of the overall incidence of civil wars in 161 countriesbetween 1960 and 1999, we draw lessons with special referenceto Africa, showing that the relatively higher incidence of warin Africa is not due to the ethno-linguistic fragmentation ofits countries, but rather to high levels of poverty, failedpolitical institutions and economic dependence on natural resources.We argue that the best and fastest strategy to reduce the incidenceof civil war in Africa and prevent future civil wars is to institutedemocratic reforms that effectively manage the challenges facingAfrica's diverse societies. To promote inter-group cooperationin Africa, specially tailored political governance and economicmanagement institutions are needed, and we advance some hypotheseson the nature of such institutions. We suggest that Africa'sethnic diversity in fact helps - rather than impedes - the emergenceof stable development as it necessitates inter-group bargainingprocesses. These processes can be peaceful if ethnic groupsfeel adequately represented by their national political institutionsand if the economy provides opportunity for productive activity.     

New Multilateralism in Action for Peace: A Case Study of the US-led Operation Unified Assistance in the Asian Tsunami Disaster1

Abstract

In the aftermath of the Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami in December 2004, the ensuing multinational relief, humanitarian, and rebuilding efforts of the Operation United Assistance (OUA) are new examples of international cooperation to sustain and rebuild Asian communities in the post-9/11 security environment. An analysis of the cooperative efforts in light of differing theoretical perspectives provides a forum for debate on the nature of cooperation in the international arena and the implications for ethnic and civil wars in Indonesia and Sri Lanka. Once described and explained by multiple theories, the relief operations can then be used to predict and perhaps even prescribe future international cooperation in natural disasters and conflict resolution in civil war environments. As a case study, this paper also examines international security strategies and the implications for economic prosperity and political stability in sovereign but weak nation states.     

Ethnic Diversity,Political Stability and Productive Efficiency: Empirical Evidence from the African Countries

While ethnic diversity has been shown to produce numerous negative effects on the economic performance due to disagreement on the production of the public good, nepotism in making employment decisions, increased corruption and rent‐seeking behaviour, its positive effects appear to have received much less attention. We hypothesise and test several explanations why higher levels of ethnic diversity may be associated with better socio‐economic outcomes. We find that productive efficiency will be higher in the societies where ethnicities can benefit from the complementarity of skills. Incentives to engage in an ethnic conflict will be lower and the extent of political stability higher in those countries where the opportunity costs of ethnic conflict are more substantial. We also find some evidence in support of the political aspirations hypothesis that attributes the negative effects of ethnic diversity to the strife by ethnic groups for more political influence.     

The Economic Cost of the War in Sri Lanka

This paper discusses some of the conceptual and methodological problems associated with assessing the economic costs of civil wars and other violent social conflicts, and presents an evaluation of the costs of the (still ongoing) conflict in Sri Lanka. Our estimates suggest that the costs of conflict since 1983 may be at least equivalent to twice Sri Lanka's 1996 GDP.     

On economic causes of civil war

We investigate whether civil wars have economic causes. Themodel is based on utility theory, rebels will conduct a civilwar if the perceived benefits outweigh the costs of rebellion.Using probit and tobit models the propositions are tested empirically.Four variables, initial income, ethno-linguistic fractionalisation,the amount of natural resources, and initial population sizeare significant and strong determinants of the duration andthe probability of civil wars. One important finding is thatthe relationship between civil wars and ethnic diversity isnon-monotoniq highly fractionalised societies have no greaterrisk of experiencing a civil war than homogenous ones.     

Taxation,warfare, and the early fourteenth century ‘crisis’ in the north: Cumberland lay subsidies, 1332–13481

Recent research into the impact of Anglo‐Scottish conflict on northern England's economy has become increasingly sophisticated, using local estate accounts to enhance understanding of the role of war in the 'crisis' of the early fourteenth century. Yet taxation data also remains an important source on these issues, not least because of its wide geographical coverage. Using a rich series of lay subsidy documents for Cumberland, this article concludes that the direct impact of Scottish raids was only one of several determinants of economic fortunes. More significantly, reconstructing the process of taxation shows that non‐violent resistance to state levies was as responsible as war damage for a decline in revenue from the county.     

Homo Economicus Goes to War: Methodological Individualism,Rational Choice and the Political Economy of War

Neoclassical economic theories of violent conflict have proliferated in recent years and, with their application to contemporary wars, have influenced donors and policy makers. This paper reviews the intellectual foundations and empirical substance of such theories and offers a critique drawing on a political economy perspective. There are strong grounds for arguing that orthodox economic theories of war are reductionist, speculative, and misleading. Theories that are driven by methodological individualism are compelled somehow to model “the social” as it affects contemporary war––for example, by appeal to indices of ethno-linguistic fragmentation––but do so in ways that fail to capture reality and its variations.     

Greed and grievance in civil war

We investigate the causes of civil war, using a new data setof wars during 1960–99. Rebellion may be explained byatypically severe grievances, such as high inequality, a lackof political rights, or ethnic and religious divisions in society.Alternatively, it might be explained by atypical opportunitiesfor building a rebel organization. While it is difficult tofind proxies for grievances and opportunities, we find thatpolitical and social variables that are most obviously relatedto grievances have little explanatory power. By contrast, economicvariables, which could proxy some grievances but are perhapsmore obviously related to the viability of rebellion, provideconsiderably more explanatory power.     

On the economic consequences of civil war

A model of the economic effects of civil war and the post-warperiod is developed. A key feature is the adjustment of thecapital stock through capital flight. Post-war this flight caneither be reversed or continue, depending partly upon how farthe capital stock has adjusted to the war. The model is testedon data for all civil wars since 1960. After long civil warsthe economy recovers rapidly, whereas after short wars it continuesto decline. We then consider the effect on the composition ofeconomic activity, distinguishing between war-vulnerable andwar-safe activities. Evidence for Uganda shows such compositionaleffects to be substantial.     

农村征地冲突诱导因素及化解途径研究——以玛纳斯县为例

近年来我国农村土地征收纠纷大幅增加,各利益主体间常发生激烈冲突,诱发一系列社会问题。由于我国农村土地问题的相关法律法规不健全、产权不明晰、征地制度缺陷等原因,致使农村征地冲突的化解机制匮乏,征地冲突治理工作效果低下。随着我国今后将继续推进新型城镇化战略实施,农村征地矛盾冲突必将愈演愈烈。在玛纳斯农村征地冲突相关背景阐述的基础上,从微观角度对玛纳斯农村征地冲突的现状、类型进行系统分析,通过对征地冲突诱导因素的筛选,运用计量分析软件对征地诱导因素进行信度、效度检验,并结合各诱导因素之间的相互作用关系,展开诱导因素的回归模型分析,针对玛纳斯县农村征地当中存在的问题,提出相关对策建议,以期对新疆农村征地冲突的预防及化解提供参考借鉴。     

Impacts of China-US trade conflicts on the energy sector

This paper uses a multi-country input-output model to simulate the impacts of the recent China-U.S. trade war. We first examine in detail the list of products subject to additional tariffs, and then use the model to estimate the economic impacts of the trade conflict. Based on the direct and indirect impacts on the energy sector of each country, we then extend the analysis to the issue of global energy demand. Our empirical results indicate that both China and the U.S. suffer from the conflict, although the impacts on China are greater Both countries experience a reduction in energy demand and a general economic slowdown. Although certain countries may benefit from the China-U.S. trade conflict in short-run, a general negative impact on the global economic prospects can affect all. Moreover, a short-term marginal impact on the global energy market is found, but as the consequence of long-term uncertainties and indirect economic impacts, further reductions of global energy demand are expected.     

Poverty and Inequality in Bosnia and Herzegovina After the Civil War

By taking advantage of new data we provide the first overview on poverty and inequality in Bosnia and Herzegovina after the war. We use a household survey commissioned by the World Bank which, despite limitations, helps shed some light on poverty risk and distribution of income in the country with respect to three issues: regional variation, ethnic differences, and household characteristics. We find large contrasts between the two entities in the country, the Federation and Republika Srpska. Ethnic cleansing may have exacerbated the differences among regions, as those poor ethnic minorities with the lowest opportunity cost migrated to regions where they were the ethnic majority. Remittances appear to play a role in ameliorating poverty. Inaddition, there are some signs that education may be a factor in preventing poverty.     

Economic consequences of war: Evidence from Sri Lanka

We propose a theoretical and econometric framework to evaluate the impact of war on economic growth of a developing country with an open economy. The theoretical framework encompasses both the neoclassical and endogenous growth models. We test this framework using Sri Lankan data. The war had significant and negative effects both in the short and long-run (annual average of 9% of GDP). High returns from investment in physical capital did not translate in sizable positive externalities. Only short-run significant effects of openness on growth are found. Inconsistent politically driven policies towards openness are the likely reason.     

Political Development,Agriculture, and Ethnic Divisions: An African Perspective

Abstract: In this paper it is argued that political development is the key to long‐run growth in developing nations. Political development is seen to be dependent on the extent to which a state or ruling elite's income is earned or unearned. The availability of earned income is linked to the structure and productivity of the agricultural sector. Applying the analysis to the sub‐Saharan African experience involves taking into account three factors: the international environment, the ethnic division of societies as a result of colonization, and the urban bias which characterized the economic strategy of the newly independent African states. As a result, agriculture collapsed, the ruling elite became increasingly dependent on unearned income, political underdevelopment occurred. The collapse of state authority significantly impoverished the region and resulted in significant civil conflict. Any long‐run solution must incorporate a broad‐based expansion in agricultural productivity.     

Conflict in Africa: The Cost of Peaceful Behaviour

War provides economic opportunities, such as the capture ofvaluable natural resources, that are unavailable in peacetime.However, belligerents may prefer low-intensity conflict to totalwar when the former has a greater pay-off. This paper thereforeuses a two-actor model to capture the continuum from total warto complete peace that often characterises Africa's conflicts.This is in contrast to the existing literature, with its focuson mutually exclusive states of total war or complete peace,an assumption which is more relevant to Europe's inter-statewars than to Africa's civil wars. The paper also discusses waysto change the economic incentives of belligerents so that theirbehaviour becomes more peaceful.     

汇率制度改革以来实际汇率升值对中美贸易影响的实证研究

人民币汇改是一次制度性的变革,在作实证分析时,不能用跨不同制度的数据来解释汇改后的汇率波动对贸易的影响。因此,本文采用人民币汇率制度改革以来的月度数据和Johansen协整检验等计量分析方法,分别对人民币实际汇率如何影响中国对美出口和进口作了实证分析。通过分析发现,人民币实际汇率升值对改善中美贸易收支平衡状况存在显著影响。     

斯里兰卡的文明断层线冲突

文明断层线战争无疑是一个热点话题,绵延几十年的僧泰冲突一直考验着斯里兰卡人,也一直为世人所关注。     

Fiscal innovation in nondemocratic regimes: Elites and the adoption of the prussian income taxes of the 1890s

The income tax is a central pillar of the modern fiscal state because of its revenue-raising capacity and administrative sophistication. Existing accounts point to interstate war and class conflict as key drivers of modern fiscal breakthroughs. In this article, we evaluate a third explanation for the origins of fiscal capacity that highlights the importance of intraelite competition for political and economic power in times of rapid industrialization. Modern forms of taxation generated a conflict between industry and agriculture over the distribution of the tax burden across sectors. The presence of electoral institutions that connected tax payments to voting rights created opportunities to overcome this sectoral divide and facilitated the formation of a political consensus for fiscal innovation. The political coalition supporting income tax adoption included higher-income industrial and agricultural elites who anticipated fiscal and electoral gains associated with the adoption of the new tax. Drawing on parliamentary debates in Prussia and additional district-level data, we document both the origins and electoral and economic consequences of the new income tax. We show that the adoption of a highly sophisticated income tax in 1891 shifted the tax burden from land to industry and diluted the political influence of the middle class. The findings clarify the coalitional dynamics leading to fiscal tax adoption in nondemocratic contexts.     

“文明冲突”与经济发展

“文明冲突”是文明互动的结果。从进步的意义上说,“文明冲突”能l眵促进人类文明的进步和发展。各种文明通过“冲突”,互相借鉴,取长补短,吸取不同文明的优秀成果,发展壮大本文明。我国目前正处于建设有中国特刍一社会主义伟大实践中,不仅经济上要实行对外开放．在精神文化方面也必然面临着外来文明的碰撞和冲击。只有把中华民族的优良传统和现代世界优秀文明成果有机结合起来,吸收外来文明的积极成分,建设有中国特色的社会主义精神文明．从而促进社会主义经济建设顺利进行,早日把我国建设成富强、民主、文明的社会主义现代化强国。