Effacing the political future: A response to interfutures

Political change within industrial countries will accompany the restructuring of economies and international relations in the 1980s. The most detailed study of alternative scenarios involving the latter issues—the interfutures report—treats domestic politics in terms of notions of value change. This article criticises these widespread ideas. Futures studies need to take political trends seriously, including those towards corporatism and the strong state. In this light the development of the informal sector can be no panacea for problems of political and economic power.     

Effacing the political future : A response to

Political change within industrial countries will accompany the restructuring of economies and international relations in the 1980s. The most detailed study of alternative scenarios involving the latter issues—the report—treats domestic politics in terms of notions of value change. This article criticises these widespread ideas. Futures studies need to take political trends seriously, including those towards corporatism and the strong state. In this light the development of the informal sector can be no panacea for problems of political and economic power.     

Stock Market Development and Financing Choices of Firms

In many developing countries with emerging stock markets, banksare fearful of stock market development because they think thatstock markets will reduce the volume of their business. Thisarticle empirically analyzes the effects of stock market developmenton firms' financing choices using data from thirty developingand industrial countries from 1980 to 1991. The results implythat initial improvements in the functioning of a developingstock market produce a higher debt-equity ratio for firms andthus more business for banks. In stock markets that are alreadydeveloped, further development leads to a substitution of equityfor debt financing. By contrast, in developing stock markets,large firms become more levered as the stock market develops,whereas small firms do not appear to be significantly affectedby stock market development.     

Trade Policies and the Highly Indebted Countries

In the early 1980s, faced with a mounting debt crisis, mosthighly indebted developing countries increased trade barriersto save foreign exchange—but in the last three to fouryears, they have reversed course. Almost all of these countrieshave undergone real devaluations, and many have undertaken significantliberalizations, so much so that some (Bolivia, Costa Rica,Jamaica, Mexico, Morocco, and Uruguay) are less protectionistthan before the debt crisis. But industrial countries have imposed new nontariff barriersagainst imports from highly indebted countries. Canada, Australia,the European Community, and the United States have greatly increasedthe use of countervailing duties and antidumping actions. Thismakes it more difficult for highly indebted countries to payoff their debts, and ultimately rebounds on creditor governmentsand banks.     

U.S. industrial policy: inevitable and ineffective

In the realm of political economy, much of the 1980s in the United States was spent debating the pros and cons of industrial policy. According to Kevin P. Phillips, the debate is now over. Regardless of who wins the 1992 presidential election, the United States will have some kind of industrial policy--but not the one it needs. In "U.S. Industrial Policy: Inevitable and Ineffective," Phillips details the economic and political forces that are propelling the U.S. toward industrial policy--and the forces that will keep the policy from being effective.     

International capital structure differences among the G7 nations: a current empirical view

Historical research domestically and internationally suggests that differences in capital structures exist for industry classification, firm size and nationality. However, the data for most of these previous studies are based on book values, include a limited number of countries, are not up-to-date, and specifically do not cover the period of the late 1980s when there were important developments in the globalization of financial markets. In addition, no single study specifically compares all seven of the world's major industrial nations (G7 Nations). Financial theory would suggest that in an efficient global market the capital structure of identical firms in different nations would be the same. If international market imperfections still exist through the 1980s, current capital structures and costs may be different among similar firms in different nations; and business advantages (or disadvantages) may provide profits (or costs) to firms incorporated in different countries. The intent of this research is empirically to update the literature with recent international data on both a book value and market value basis and to include for the first time in a single study all the G7 Nations. The results suggest significant financial structure differences still exist among the G7 countries. Specifically, on a market value basis France, Italy and Germany tend to use a higher proportion of total debt, US, UK, Canada and Japan tend to use less debt, and France, Italy and Canada tend to use a higher proportion of institutional debt (non-spontaneous funds) than the US, UK, Japan and Germany.     

WHO WINS AND WHO LOSES FROM VOLUNTARY EXPORT RESTRAINTS?:The Case of Footwear

Voluntary export restraints have been a popular resort of industrialcountries faced with increasing competition from exports ofdeveloping countries. As a strategy for circumventing the rulesof the GATT (whose regulations preclude increases in tariffs),these nontariff barriers have been rather successful; whetherthey have been as successful in their aim of protecting andstimulating the industry concerned is another matter. This article looks at what happened when industrial countriesimposed—and then removed—voluntary export restraintson the footwear industry during the 1970s and 1980s. Why didprotectionism spread so fast and then dissipate almost as rapidly,and what effects did this coming and going have on the exportingcountries We suggest that industrial countries removed the restraintsbecause they found ?them either superfluous (the expected employmenteffect failed to materialize) or ineffective (the principalexporters maintained their market share during the height ofthe restrictions), or else because the industry was able toadjust by importing footwear at a profit. Predicting the effect of VERs, and determining how best to managethem, are critical questions for developing countries strugglingto improve their export performance in the 1990s. The resultsof detailed study of a representative industry, summarized here,may assist in the prediction and determination.      

Technical innovation and industrial development : 1. The new causality

The author argues that the nature and importance of technical change in industry in the OECD countries began to alter in the 1970s. Statistical evidence suggests that investment activities embodying process innovations were the main motor of technical change in the 1960s. In the 1970s, however, there are signs that innovative activities (research, development, and design) resulting in product and systems innovations grew in importance. If the trend continues, countries and industries with strong capacities for industrial innovation will have higher living standards and industrial employment than those without. In this article the author discusses the nature of, and the evidence for, the changes taking place. In the next article he will discuss the policy implications.     

Real and monetary convergence between the European Union’s core and recent member countries: A rolling cointegration approach

We use rolling cointegration to measure the convergence of base money, M2, the CPI and industrial output between Germany and France and recent EU members and some transition countries that are now joining the EU. Countries that joined the EU previously exhibit time-varying cointegration with the core countries over the 1980–2000 sample period. Cointegration for the transition economies was comparable for M2 and prices, but not for monetary policy and industrial output. Thus a peg to the Euro soon after accession is feasible for the East European countries, but the benefits of joining the Euro zone are as yet limited.     

Employment and new technology in Tameside

The authors argue that most current prognostications of the employment implications of new microelectronic technologies exaggerate the rate at which they will be introduced and, by taking the national or international perspective, pay too little attention to smaller regions. A survey of Tameside, a part of Manchester, UK, shows that, although many jobs are at risk in some industries, the overall changes during the 1980s are unlikely to be as great as might have been supposed; this is because of the industrial structure of that particular locality.     

不确定性、产业空心化与经济波动

以 Aghion 等(2004)的模型为基础,将不确定性、产业空心化引入到宏观经济波动的模型中来,分析其对经济波动的影响,并运用全球106个国家1980~2013年之间的数据进行实证检验,结论表明：不确定性、产业空心化程度的变化会影响财富的变化,财富的变化会影响投资的变化,进而影响经济波动;不确定性程度每提高1个百分点,经济波动就会提高0.441个百分点,产业空心化程度每提高0.028个百分点,经济波动就会提高0.019个百分点。进一步来看,产业空心化程度的提高伴随不确定性程度的上升会显著地加剧一个国家的经济波动。低收入国家不确定性程度的增大对经济波动的加剧作用最大,高收入国家对经济波动的加剧作用最小。与中高收入国家相比,低收入国家产业空心化程度的提高会显著地加剧该国经济波动。     

Latin American Cycles: Has Anything Changed After the Great Recession?

This paper analyzes the evolution of growth cycles and business cycles in Latin America from 1980 to 2013 by using monthly industrial production. Focusing on both synchronization and other cyclical features, we find evidence of significant cyclical links between the countries of the region, which seem to be highly integrated in this period. Notably, we find that the Great Recession did not lead to any significant impact on the preexisting Latin American cyclical linkages.     

Human resources in the 1980s

As the decade of the 1970s closes, new trends in human resources will test the ingenuity of corporate planners to produce policies for the 1980s that will match changing corporate demands with changing employee expectations. The 1970s have produced much-publicized problems--for example, the introduction to the work force of larger numbers of minorities and women--that are not yet fully resolved and that can be expected to continue. But the 1980s will bring their own special challenges. Shifting populations (such as legal and illegal immigrants), the women's movement's demand for equal pay for work of comparable worth, and the push for civil liberties at the workplace are all factors that will dramatically change the business climate. With these factors in mind, the author examines the 1980s' business environment, takes a backward look at planning policies in the 1970s, and shows how the priorities of those policies will have to be reevaluated to meet the challenges of the future.     

中国与TPP国家关税减让的宏观经济效应：基于GTAP模型的分析

采用GTAP模型,模拟分析中国与TPP国家关税减让合作的宏观经济效应.结果显示:中国与TPP国家双边关税减让会强化双边的贸易联系,其中,制造业双边关税壁垒的取消比农业双边关税壁垒取消对中国及TPP国家的对外贸易影响更大;双边关税减让将提升双边的福利水平,同时也会使中国与TPP国家的贸易不平衡进一步扩大.结果表明,考虑到单边关税减让将损害减让国福利水平,采用双边关税减让以平衡双方利益是一个可行的合作途径.     

International capital mobility: net versus gross stocks and flows

Feldstein and Horioka (1980) observed that net capital flows have been small in relation to domestic saving and investment flows for OECD countries in the post-war period, which they interpreted as evidence of low capital mobility. This paper argues that the correlation between gross domestic and international financial flows can be a better indicator of capital mobilitythan net capital flows. Contrary to the conventional wisdom among international economists, gross flows have been small in relation to gross domestic asset creation for OECD countries, although by this measure the degree of capital mobility increased in the 1980s.     

The end of corporate imperialism

As they search for growth, multinational corporations will have no choice but to compete in the big emerging markets of China, India, Indonesia, and Brazil. But while it is still common to question how such corporations will change life in those markets, Western executives would be smart to turn the question around and ask how multinationals themselves will be transformed by these markets. To be successful, MNCs will have to rethink every element of their business models, the authors assert in this seminal HBR article from 1998. During the first wave of market entry in the 1980s, multinationals operated with what might be termed an imperialist mind-set, assuming that the emerging markets would merely be new markets for their old products. But this mind-set limited their success: What is truly big and emerging in countries like China and India is a new consumer base comprising hundreds of millions of people. To tap into this huge opportunity, MNCs need to ask themselves five basic questions: Who is in the emerging middle class in these countries? How do the distribution networks operate? What mix of local and global leadership do you need to foster business opportunities? Should you adopt a consistent strategy for all of your business units within one country? Should you take on local partners? The transformation that multinational corporations must undergo is not cosmetic--simply developing greater sensitivity to local cultures will not do the trick, the authors say. To compete in the big emerging markets, multinationals must reconfigure their resources, rethink their cost structures, redesign their product development processes, and challenge their assumptions about who their top-level managers should be.     

Harmonisation of financial reporting before the European Company Law Directives: the case of the Nordic Companies Act

De jure harmonisation of financial reporting began early in the Nordic countries with initial discussions reported as early as the 1930s. Legislation implemented in the 1970s was based on a proposal for a common Nordic Companies Act. This article follows the history of this legislation and analyses it with a view to providing insights into voluntary harmonisation across multiple countries. The main lessons appear to be that (1) Germany had a measurable influence; (2) taxes played an important role which has persisted in some countries, with others resisting change until the 1980s and 1990s; (3) the Nordic countries were among the first to introduce a legal requirement for publication of a funds flow statement; (4) meeting the needs of diverse and dynamic stakeholders was addressed differentially by the Nordic countries; and (5) regional co-operation seems to have been overtaken by events on the broader international stage and the costs of compromise.     

Industrial Structure and the Comparative Behavior of International Stock Market Indices

Stock Price Indices are compared across countries in an attempt to explain why they exhibit such disparate behavior. Three separate explanatory influences are empirically documented. First, part of the behavior can be attributed to a technical aspect of index construction; some indices are more diversified than others. Second, each country's industrial structure plays a major role in explaining stock price behavior. Third, for the majority of countries, a portion of national equity index behavior can be ascribed to exchange rate behavior. Exchange rates explain a significant portion of common currency denominated national index returns, although the amount explained by exchange rates is less than the amount explained by industrial structure for most countries.     

The prospects for the developing world: a review of recent forecasts

This article addresses the future aspects of developing countries during the 1980s. To do so it has drawn on recent reports about the future of the world's economy. Even widespread failures of harvests and the increase in the price of oil in the 1970s did not diminish the optimistic attitude about the future in the 1980s. The original World Bank projections predicted a 5.7%/annum increase in gross domestic product and a substantial reduction in the level of poverty. The 1980 report paints a very pessimistic picture due to: the structural changes which the world economy is undergoing (changes in demand and production, slower economies, declines in productivity growth, etc.), world interdependence, and reduction of world resources. Other reports and studies have arrived at the same general conclusions. The predictions of the authors of "Interfutures" are also marked with considerable pessimism. They said that future uncertainties could lead to political rifts as well as economic and social problems. The Brandt commission report sketches a bleak picture for the world economy. Despite the consensus among the varous reports concerning the future in the developing nations, there are differences of opinion concerning the ability of these nations to adjust to the difficult circumstances. Certain actions must be taken immediately--generate more resources for development, measures to reduce oil and food imports, long-term goals should include improvements in administration, increasing agricultural productivity, and better utilizing available resources. The Brandt Commission is less optimistic about the world's ability to help the poor out of its troubles. The OECD targets sub-Saharan Africa as the area to be dealt with immediately. Basically, these developing nations will not be able to rely on industrialization and cheap energy for their growth.     

Terrorism and Critical Infrastructures: Implications for Public–Private Crisis Management

The spate of terrorist attacks in New York, London and Madrid has raised some significant issues for the public management of critical infrastructures. In many countries, privatizations in the 1980s and 1990s have transferred key elements of the critical infrastructure to private companies. Because these infrastructures are of major significance to our societies and economies, they must be protected against prolonged periods of breakdown. The ‘new’ terrorism has the potential to do just that. The management of this new threat is a complex task, which invariably will be undertaken by both public and private actors. They must deal with the core challenges of the prevention of attacks, effective communication of information across organizational boundaries and the ‘ownership’ of crisis decision-making. This article considers these issues within the context of the broader research areas of public management and crisis management.