Short-Run and Long-Run Dynamics of Exchange Rates with Sticky Prices

This paper constructs microfoundations for the nexus between sticky goods prices and exchange rate overshooting. Based on an asset-pricing model, this paper describes how the exchange rate responds to a monetary shock in the short run and adjusts in later periods to a new long-run rate. In an environment where goods prices are sticky, the short-run response of the exchange rate to a monetary shock depends on the elasticity of consumption demand. The long-run exchange rate always shifts equiproportionately to a monetary shock regardless of the parameter values and is reached many periods after the shock.     

消费行为、产出变化与经常项目动态

国内吸收法认为,当国内需求没有完全吸收其产出时,就会通过净出口产生贸易顺差.中国持续的经常项目顺差似乎与消费需求不足有关.收入是决定居民消费需求的最基本因素之一.本文通过实证分析我国居民的消费与收入变化的关系来考察我国居民的消费需求,结合国内吸收法的思想来分析我国的经常项目动态.     

Causal Relationship Between the Current Account and Financial Account

We demonstrate that a different causal relationship exists between the current and financial accounts in developed and developing countries. Using the Granger causality test, we clearly determine that the financial account is by and large responsible for the current account in developing countries; instead of financing the current account, the financial account thrusts the current account into an imbalance. In developed countries, however, the current account leads the way, and the financial account, as its name indicates, serves to finance a current account imbalance. This represents a forewarning that countries, which lack a sophisticated financial system to channel funds to proper locations, should not recklessly liberalize capital mobility.The author would like to thank an anonymous referee for valuable suggestions.     

Nontraded Goods and the Current Account

This paper investigates trade balance and current account behavior in response to various shocks when the economy produces and consumes both traded and nontraded goods. Previous analyses of these problems have interpreted current account behavior in terms of tension between parameters that measure intratemporal and intertemporal elasticity, respectively. This paper provides a simple general criterion for whether trade and current account behavior is perverse vis-à-vis the standard one-good model results: behavior is perverse if and only if traded and nontraded goods are Edgeworth complements; that is, if the cross-partial of the instantaneous utility function is positive.     

Sustainable and Excessive Current Account Deficits

Both the Mexican crisis of 1994–95 and the Asian financial crisis of 1997–98 have been preceded by large current account deficits run by the affected economies. External deficits are often assumed to play an important role in the propagation of financial crises in emerging markets. Policymakers are faced with a new challenge: that of resisting or accepting the large current account deficits that may result from heavy private capital inflows. This paper aims at providing some guidance:First, the Lawson Doctrine – according to which current account deficits that result from a shift in private-sector behaviour should not be a public policy concern – has been discredited by recent currency crises in Latin America and Asia. Second, define the size of current account deficits that should be sustainable in the long run. Third, the intertemporal approach to the current account does not provide a reliable benchmark to define when deficits become excessive. Fourth, large external deficits should be resisted if unsustainable currency appreciation, excessive risk-taking in the banking system and a sharp private spending boom are seen to coincide.     

Meaningful Measures of the Current Account

Since the conventional current account uses cash-flow accounting, it is potentially devoid of economic meaning. Assessing foreign assets at market values and including expected transfers from abroad, this paper reports two measures of the external surplus that are grounded in economic theory. The first measure is the aggregate generational current account, annual differences in the sum of net foreign assets across all current and future generations. The second measure is the generational profile of net foreign assets in a benchmark year. These ideas are implemented with data from Korea.     

Productive Government Expenditures and the Current Account

This paper examines the effects of a change in government expenditure on the current account of the balance of payments using the optimizing approach. It is assumed that government expenditure is productive, and is regarded as an input in the aggregate production function. Based on the Blanchard–Fischer-type model, the paper demonstrates decisively that the current account deficit is due to a permanent increase in government expenditure.
JEL Classification Numbers: F41, H30.     

FDI与中国经常项目的实证分析

本文基于储蓄—投资的视角,采用时间序列计量技术,在5个变量系统内检验了外国直接投资对中国经常项目的影响。结果显示:经常项目、外国直接投资、名义汇率、名义利率以及GDP等5个变量之间存在长期的协整关系;利率、汇率不是经常项目的Granger原因,外国直接投资和GDP是经常项目的Granger原因,外国直接投资的增加导致经常项目顺差增加,GDP增加导致经常项目顺差减少。其政策含义在于,通过对包括外国直接投资和国内需求在内的有关宏观经济变量的调整可以有效调节中国的经常项目收支。     

Is Pricing to Market Behavior a Long-Run Phenomenon? A Non-Stationary Panel Analysis

This paper examines how the Swedish imports prices react to exchange ratechanges in the long run. It finds, through non-stationary panel analysis, thatthe Swedish import prices (for the majority of industries) change but not inproportion to exchange rate changes. The evidence from panel cointegrationalso shows that pricing behavior of the Swedish imports varies across industriesand such variations could be related to industry-specific characteristics.     

Short-Run Crude Oil Price and Surplus Production Capacity

This paper shows the effect that surplus crude oil production capacity has on short-term crude oil prices. A simple model using Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) industrial inventories and Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) surplus production capacity is introduced. This model provides improved forecasts for the post Gulf War I time period over models without the capacity variable.     

Is the Current Account Deficit Sustainable?

This article argues that Australia's savings behaviour relative to its investment opportunities ensures a structural current account deficit which is fundamentally sustainable. In fact considerable scope seems to exist for it to widen further, irrespective of fiscal tightening that has occurred during the last few years, without alarming macroeconomic consequences.     

Gender Equality and Long-Run Growth

This research suggests that long-run economic and demographic development in Europe can be better understood when related to long-term trends in gender equality, dating back to the spread of Christianity. We set up a growth model where gaps in female-to-male human capital arise at equilibrium through a coordination process. An economy which over a long stretch of time re-coordinates on continuously more equal equilibria—as one could argue happened in Europe—exhibits growth patterns qualitatively similar to that of Europe.     

收入不平等和中国经常账户失衡问题研究

文章通过理论分析和实证分析论证了收入不平等和中国经常账户失衡的数量关 系.首先构建了收入不平等和经常账户关系的两期模型,研究表明:低收入人群的跨期消费决策受到参照群体(高消费群体)消费外部性的影响,且这种影响随着收入不平等程度的增加而增加;同时,收入不平等对经常账户的影响与金融发展程度相关.随着收入不平等程度的增加,金融发展程度越高,经常账户越容易产生赤字;当金融发展程度较低时,低收入人群获得自由借贷的范围和水平受到限制,普遍推迟当前消费,进而导致经常账户盈余.文章还基于中国1980-2012年的统计数据,采用GMM估计方法对收入不平等和经常账户的关系进行了实证研究,结果表明:收入不平等是造成中国经常账户失衡的重要影响因素;收入不平等对中国经常账户的影响还受制于中国的金融发展水平.     

A Sceptical View of Australia's Current Account and Debt Problem

This article puts forward the view that there are considerable benefits to be gained from foreign borrowing and that policy actions of a macro nature should be diverted towards internal balance.
In Section 2 a brief history of the evolution of approaches to the current account is set out. Recent theories imply that the current account indicates the optimal amount of foreign borrowing both by firms and households, at least with zero fiscal deficits. The present conventional Australian approach to current account issues (Section 3) would seem to be based on theories which were relevant in an era of pegged exchange rates.
In Section 4 it is suggested not only that the current account should not be a target of macroeconomic policy, but that any microeconomic policy directed at reducing it should be justified by the existence of externalities in the borrowing/debt process.     

外商直接投资对中国国际收支双顺差影响的分析

20世纪90年代以来,中国的国际收支呈现出经常项目和资本与金融项目顺差并存的“双顺差”特点。造成双顺差的原因有很多,其中外商直接投资（FDI）是一个重要的影响因素。运用理论和实证的分析结果表明,外商直接投资与“双顺差”之间存在着显著的因果关系,且两者之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系。积极合理的利用外商直接投资,不仅有利于化解中国宏观经济的外部失衡,也有利于带动中国经济的协调发展。     

我国养老保险个人账户基金现状分析及对策建议

个人账户制度是我国多支柱养老保险制度的重要组成部分.长期以来,基于个人账户的安全性考虑,政府对个人账户资金存量的投资范围进行了严格限制,只能存入银行和购买国债.这种管理模式在通货膨胀率和工资增长率不断提高的情况下面临着越来越巨大的保值压力.本文分析在新形势下个人账户面临的问题,并对这些问题提供了相应的对策建议.     

Growth and the Current Account in a Small Open Economy

The authors provide a framework with which to analyze growth in a small economy with perfect capital mobility. The framework provides a diagrammatic representation of steady states that differs in interesting and important ways from the usual closed-economy Solow-Swan diagram. The authors use the key diagrams to illustrate the effects of changes in parameters such as the saving rate and productivity growth on steady-state values of macroeconomic aggregates. They compare the steady-state results for the open economy with those obtained using the more familiar closed-economy model. They illustrate the possibility of endogenous income growth.     

关于短期融资资金成本计算的探讨

本首先根据财务管理中关于资金成本的理论推导出一个更容易理解、包容性更强、更具普遍性的资金成本计算公式,并举便说明该公式的运用、公式中各项的含义及应用时要注意的地方。本介绍的方法比现行财务管理教科书上介绍的方法更简便,适用性更强,在日益活跃的金融创新环境下,它更能满足各类机构和人员对资金成本计算的要求。     

Current Account Imbalances and Real Exchange Rates in the Euro Area*

Global current account imbalances have been one of the focal points of interest for policymakers during the last few years. Less attention has been paid, however, to the diverging current account balances of the individual euro area countries. In this paper we consider the dynamics of current account adjustment and the role of real exchange rates in current account determination in the EMU countries. After controlling for the effects of income growth, we find the relationship between real exchange rates and current accounts to be substantial in size and subject to nonlinear effects. We find that real exchange rates can offer further insights, beyond the effects of the income catch‐up process, relevant to current account determination in the EMU.