National and International Benefit Transfer Testing with a Rigorous Test Procedure

Benefit transfer, as a mean to transfer values from existing monetary valuation studies to new policy sites, has been in use for many years. This paper aims to analyze the forecasting quality of benefit transfer by applying a rigoroust-test – also referred to as Accuracy-t-test – that takes into account testing errors which were made in previous surveys. Beside the analysis of national benefit transfers based on two German contingent valuation studies additional efforts were made to investigate into the validity and accuracy of international benefit transfer by considering two Norwegian studies that employed a similar survey design.     

Detecting Imbalances in House Prices: What Goes Up Must Come Down?*

I suggest a toolkit of four bubble‐detection methods that can be used to monitor developments in house prices. These methods are applied to US, Finnish, and Norwegian data. For the United States, all measures unanimously suggest a bubble in the early to mid‐2000s, whereas current US house prices are found to be aligned with economic fundamentals. One of the measures indicates imbalances in Finland, while there are no signs of a bubble in Norway. I find that large parts of the US house price bubble can be explained by the sharp increase in capital inflows and the extension of loans to the subprime mortgage market.     

Asking for Individual or Household Willingness to Pay for Environmental Goods?

The aggregate welfare measure for a change in the provision of a public good derived from a contingent valuation (CV) survey will be higher if the same elicited mean willingness to pay (WTP) is added up over individuals rather than households. A trivial fact, however, once respondents are part of multi-person households, it becomes almost impossible to elicit an “uncontaminated” WTP measure that with some degree of confidence can be aggregated over one or the other response unit. The literature is mostly silent about which response unit to use in WTP questions, and in some CV studies it is even unclear which type has actually been applied. We test for differences between individual and household WTP in a novel, web-administered, split-sample CV survey asking WTP for preserving biodiversity in old-growth forests in Norway. Two samples are asked both types of questions, but in reverse order, followed by a question with an item battery trying to reveal why WTP may differ. We find in a test between samples that the WTP respondents state on behalf of their households is not significantly different from their individual WTP. However, within the same sample, household WTP is significantly higher than individual WTP; in particular if respondents are asked to state individual before household WTP. Our results suggest that using individual WTP as the response unit may overestimate aggregate WTP. Thus, the choice of response format needs to be explicitly and carefully addressed in CV questionnaire design and further research in order to avoid the risk of unprofitable projects passing the benefit-cost test.

---

     

Language training,language proficiency and earnings of immigrants in Norway

This paper uses a simple probit model to determine the impact of language training on the language proficiency of Third World immigrant men in Norway. It also estimates the labour market returns to Norwegian language proficiency. The results show that immigrants who participate in language training programme are more likely to acquire speaking and reading proficiencies in Norwegian language than those who do not. Contrary to expectation, language proficiency has no significant effect on immigrants' earnings. A probable explanation may be that immigrants need Norwegian language proficiency to get into jobs in the Norwegian labour market. Once they are in employment, their wages are not necessarily determined by their proficiency in Norwegian. Consistent with the assimilation hypothesis, earlier waves of immigrants have higher earnings than do more recent waves, and part of the initial earnings deficit experienced by more recent immigrants can be attributed to language deficiency. There was no evidence of sample selection bias in the earnings equation.     

A Comparison of Household Recycling Behaviors in Norway and the United States

This paper investigates empirically the determinants of household recycling in Norway and compares the results with a similar, recently published, study of households in the United States. The comparison focuses on the relative importance of user fees on waste disposal, community recycling programs, and socioeconomic factors. Both data sources are nationwide, material-specific, and at the household level. One major finding is that a disposal fee provides a significant economic incentive to Norwegian households, whereas its effectiveness in the United States is still up for debate. Providing households with convenient recycling options, such as curbside and drop-off recycling, appears generally effective, but less so in Norway than in the United States. Socioeconomic characteristics are less important predictors of behavior in Norway than in the United States. Qualifications on the comparison are provided throughout and two extensions for future research are suggested at the end.     

Multivariate Mixed Models for Open-Ended Contingent Valuation Data: Willingness To Pay For Conservation of Monk Seals

Although dichotomous choice (DC) contingent valuation (CV) has been recommended by the US NOAA 'blue-ribbon' panel for large-scale contingent valuation studies, useful information can still be obtained from smaller, open-ended (OE) studies, often undertaken as a precursor to a DC survey. The CV study considered here was carried out in Greece and looked at willingness-to-pay (WTP) for protecting the Mediterranean monk seal (Monachus-monachus) in the Aegean area. This is the most endangered seal in the world, and the application of the CV methodology was the first such application in Greece. The OE data consist of two responses: first, a binary response detailing whether or not respondents were in principle prepared to pay for the protection of this seal; secondly, those respondents who answered 'yes' to the first question were then asked to state their maximum WTP for such protection. A multivariate binomial – log-normal mixture model is used to develop a bid function including explanatory variables such as income, sex, age and education. Such a modelling approach provides an alternative to more commonplace tobit estimation. However, the model is extended to include further information which was collected on:(a) an increased WTP amount given in response to information that the initial WTP amount may not be enough to prevent the extinction of the seal;(b) respondents were asked to divide their final WTP amount between use, option and existence values, the latter requiring a multivariate model with four binary and four continuous responses per individual in the same model.The discussion focuses on the methodological issues raised with some comment on the substantive interpretation of results.     

Linkages among Interest Rates in the United States, Germany and Norway

The Johansen multivariate cointegration methodology is used to analyze relationships among short-term and long-term interest rates in the United States, Germany and Norway. A variance decomposition approach is applied to estimate the proportion of each interest rate's forecast error variance attributable to innovations in the other interest rates. Impulse response functions are plotted to illustrate the speed with which interest rate events are transmitted between capital markets. The analyses illustrate that US interest rates have a significant influence on both German and Norwegian interest rates, while the reverse effect is modest. Norway is also strongly exposed to German interest rate movements, which reflects the consequences of a small country linking its currency to the value of European currencies.     

Ordering effects in contingent valuation surveys

This paper focuses on ordering effects in CVM surveys; how the expressed value of a particular good valued in a sequence of several goods depends on where in the sequence the good is valued. We use data from a Norwegian CVM survey focusing on WTP for a 50% reduction in air pollution from car traffic to test for the existence of ordering effects and to apply a test for internal consistency. We found considerable and significant ordering effects in our data, but were not able to reject the hypothesis of internal consistency. Based on our survey, we argue that ordering effects may be a result of rational choice. These effects are problematic if a sequential valuation procedure is applied to a simultaneous problem, and/or the respondents are given imperfect information about the decision problem.     

Effect of substitutes in contingent valuation for a private market good

Economic theory predicts a decrease in valuation as the availability of substitutes increases. This paper describes a contingent valuation (CV) survey that investigates the effect of substitutes on valuation of private market goods. Using an approach that compares willingness to pay (WTP) values elicited from a CV question that accounts for substitutes with WTP values elicited from a similar question without substitutes, we find that allowing for substitutes can moderate WTP values. For the item valued in this study, a hamburger sandwich, allowing for substitutes was associated with a reduction of from 10% to 16% in stated values.     

Contingent valuation of ill health caused by pollution: testing for context and ordering effects

Contingent valuation is being increasingly used to value episodes of ill health caused by environmental pollution. In contrast to studies that have used contingent valuation to value other types of non-market goods, health episode valuation studies have tended to 1) value several ill health episodes or symptoms in the same survey, and 2) be vague in the survey instrument about the cause of the ill health, how it would be avoided or how the improvement would be paid for. The resulting values are then combined with exposure-response functions to generate economic estimates of health damages from pollution. This study tests whether episode valuation responses are sensitive to two of these design features. In a five-country study using split sample treatments, neither episode ordering nor mention of the cause of the ill health influenced stated willingness to pay to avoid specific ill health episodes.JEL Classification: C42, I12, Q51 Correspondence to: Richard ReadyThis research was supported by the European Unions Environment and Climate Research Programme: Theme 4 - Human Dimensions of Environmental Change (contract no. ENV4-CT96-0234). Any views expressed in the paper are not necessarily the views of any of the authors employers.     

Benefit Transfer in Europe: How Reliable Are Transfers between Countries?

The benefits for specific health impacts related to air and water quality were measured in simultaneous contingent valuation surveys conducted in five different European countries. Consistent inter-country differences in willingness to pay to avoid ill health episodes could not be explained by measurable differences in individual characteristics. International transfer of unit values resulted in an average transfer error of 38%. Accounting for measurable differences among countries in health status, income and other demographic measures, either through ad hoc adjustments to the transferred values or through value function transfer, did not improve transfer performance.     

Treating respondent uncertainty in contingent valuation: A comparison of empirical treatments

This research examines the impact of uncertainty on contingent valuation responses using (1) a survey of Canadian landowners about willingness to accept compensation for converting cropland to forestry and (2) a survey of Swedish residents about willingness to pay for forest conservation. Five approaches from the literature for incorporating respondent uncertainty are used and compared to the traditional random utility model with assumed certainty. The results indicate that incorporating uncertainty has the potential to increase fit, but could introduce additional variance. While some methods for uncertainty can be an improvement over traditional approaches, it is imperative to exercise caution when making systematic judgments about the effect of uncertainty on contingent valuation responses.     

From natural resources and environmental accounting to construction of indicators for sustainable development

Norway has a long history in trying to develop management tools for sustainable development. From the early development of natural resources accounts in the 1980s, through discussions of the usefulness of indices like “green GDP” to efforts of developing sustainable development indicators, experiences have been gained. The paper seeks to both describe the landscape and discussions associated with the key terms, and to communicate some lessons drawn from the Norwegian experiences. The conclusion focuses on the fact that whatever information is collected and organised to support the relevant decision-making processes, the final outcome should always be judged in terms of its impacts on policy processes. Thus, we issue a warning against large-scale development of information systems, without due regard to the final utilisation of the output.     

A Comparison of Willingness to Pay Estimation Techniques From Referendum Questions

Referendum style willingness to pay questions have been used to estimatepassive use values. This referendum question format method may beproblematic for many reasons, including the statistical techniques used toestimate willingness to pay from discrete responses. This paper comparesa number of parametric, semi-nonparametric and nonparametric estimationtechniques using data collected from US households regarding Federalprotection of endangered fish species.The advantages and disadvantagesof the various statistical models used are explored. A hypothesis test forstatistical equality among estimation techniques is performed using ajackknife bootstrapping method. When the equality test is applied, themodeling techniques do show significant differences in some possiblecomparisons, but only those that are nonparamentric. This can lead toconflicting interpretations of what the data show. Resource managers andpolicy analysts need to use caution when interpreting results until anindustry standard can be developed for estimating willingness to pay fromclosed ended questions.     

Elicitation Format and Sensitivity to Scope

This paper undertakes a systematiccomparison of the contingent valuation (CV) andchoice experiments (CE) methods, andinvestigates the extent to which either of themare affected by insensitivity to scope. This isachieved by undertaking separate CV estimatesof willingness to pay for two nested publicgoods, both of which are explicitly included ina parallel CE survey. The results indicate thatCE values exhibit greater sensitivity to scopethan CV values. CE gives significantly largerresults than CV for the more inclusive publicgood and significantly smaller results for theless inclusive public good.     

Panel estimates of the earnings gap in Norway: do female immigrants experience a double earnings penalty?

This study explores the possibility that being both a ‘female’ and an ‘immigrant’ will impose an earnings disadvantage on immigrant women in Norway. Well-known techniques are used to decompose the earnings gap between Norwegian men and immigrant women into portions attributable to productivity differentials, portions attributable to a gender effect, and portions attributable to an ethnic effect. The analysis supports the following conclusions: First, there is evidence of a double negative effect on female immigrant earnings. Second, gender effect is more important than ethnic effect. Finally, the discrimination estimates are robust to the alternative methods used in decomposing Norwegian men-immigrant women earnings gap.     

Addressing Negative Willingness to Pay in Dichotomous Choice Contingent Valuation

This paper has four purposes. First, we outline the controversy surroundingthe issue of negative willingness to pay (WTP)in contingent valuation (CV) studies. Second,we use Monte Carlo simulation to examine theperformance of alternative distributionalassumptions in estimating WTP in the presenceof varying proportions of the populationholding negative WTP values. We focus ondichotomous choice CV (DC-CV), where negativeWTP values may be especially difficult todetect. Third, we extend the simulation toinvestigate the performance of the mixturemodels that have recently been proposed forhandling/identifying non-positive WTP values. Fourth, we extend the simulation to investigatethe performance of the nonparametric lowerbound Turnbull approach. Results indicate thatthe relative performance of the DC-CV modelingalternatives evaluated here, which assumepositive WTP, varies across the simulationsetting (e.g., proportion of negative WTP); butnone can be said to reasonably ``solve' theproblem ex post. This underscores theimportance of ex ante efforts to identify ifnegative WTP is likely to be prominent in agiven valuation setting. In such cases,appropriately handling negative WTP must beaddressed through ex ante survey design andmodeling choices that allow negative WTP.     

Exchange rate pass-through,price discrimination,and US meat export prices

Exports are becoming increasingly important for US livestock and poultry producers. Consequently, meat industry participants are concerned about the potential impacts of variations in relative currency values. These effects are considered by quantifying the impacts of relative exchange rates on US beef, pork and poultry export prices. In addition, the impacts of GATT and NAFTA agreements on exchange rate pass-through are considered. The results indicate incomplete exchange rate pass-through occurs for several countries. Trade liberalization under GATT has positively influenced US beef and poultry export prices.     

Optimal use of forecasts in economic policy decisions: An empirical test

A criterion for optimal use of forecasts of exogenous variables in a linear policy model with quadratic preferences is given, based on Johansen (1972). By calculating regressions of observed values with respect to raw forecast values used in the observation period, equations are established which can be used to transform raw forecasts into ‘certainty equivalents’. The method is applied to data from national budgeting and corresponding national accounts in Norway 1948–-1971. Especially the forecasts for the volume of exports, but also for import prices, could be considerably improved, for policy purposes in the context of the model of the type mentioned, by the transformation described. Some of the forecasts, when optimally transformed, should be permitted to fluctuate more strongly and thereby influence policy more strongly. Some tentative results for Sweden and the Netherlands are briefly mentioned and compared with the evidence for Norway.