基于现金流量的综合财务指标实证研究——以制造业上市公司为例

以权责发生制为基础设计的财务综合指标容易受盈余管理的影响,由此可能导致指标不能反映公司实际财务实际状况。本文以收付实现制为基础,通过主成份分析方法将多个现金流量表主要指标组合成一个综合财务指标,客观评价公司财务状况,最后选取综合绩效排名前50位中的33家制造业上市公司为样本,实证综合财务指标判断的一致性。     

企业价值创造的内涵及其衡量指标分析

企业价值本质上是投资者封企业自由现金流量追索权的大小。企业的价值创造最终以现金流量的增加值反映出来。在衡量价值创造的各种指标中，MVA、TSR、ER是以股东财富最大化为目标的指标，不适合用来作为价值创造管理的核心指标。EVA建立在权责发生制基础上，容易被管理层操控，衡量的准确度不够。FCF作为一个收益性的指标，是衡量价值创造的最佳指标。     

No lending relationships and liquidity management of small businesses during a financial shock

We investigate the determinants of the end of lending relationships with banks using small business data. We also investigate how small businesses without lending relationships financed credit demand during the global financial shock. First, we find that firms with lower growth, low working capital, and high internal cash were more likely to end lending relationships with banks. Supply-side effects on the determinants of the end of relationships are insignificant. Second, when firms experienced credit demand during the financial shock, those with lending relationships increased bank borrowings while those without lending relationships reduced internal cash. Third, firm performance (in terms of profitability) was neither lower nor higher for firms that did not have lending relationships with banks during the shock period.     

上市公司财务状况与其股票二级市场价格演变的关系

公司的财务状况是影响股价走势的重要内因之一 ,它由盈利能力、偿债能力和资金营运能力三个基本部分组成。本文根据实际情况 ,选择反映盈利能力和偿债能力的部分财务指标 ,分析研究其与股票二级市场价格演变的关系 ,以此为投资者的投资决策提供一些建议和帮助。     

Investment by Korean conglomerates before and after the crisis

This paper analyzes the investment behavior of the Korean corporate sector before and after the 1997 financial crisis. Using firm-level data, we find that after controlling for investment profitability and cash flows, Korean conglomerates (‘chaebol’)-affiliated firms, particularly ones with low-managerial ownership, made significantly higher investments than non-chaebol firms before the crisis. In contrast, this difference in investment volume between chaebol and non-chaebol firms is no longer existent in the period following the crisis. We find the sharp reduction in investment by chaebols in the post-crisis period can be attributed mainly to the need to moderate their debt burden. It is not clear, however, whether these changes indicate an improvement in investment efficiency.     

Financial performance and corporate governance in microfinance: Evidence from Asia

Good corporate governance is considered a building block of success for microfinance institutions (MFIs) as it is presumed to help them in achieving their social and financial goals. This paper analyzes the corporate governance and financial performance relationship for MFIs in Asia. We make use of a panel dataset involving 173 MFIs in 18 Asian countries for the period 2007–2011. We construct a corporate governance index based on seven measures pertaining to board size and composition, CEO characteristics, and ownership type. We then estimate the two-way relationship between this index and each of five different financial performance indicators. To address the likely simultaneity between corporate governance and financial performance, we adopt a two-stage least squares estimation approach with instrumental variables. Our results confirm the endogenous nature of corporate governance and financial performance. We conclude that profitability and sustainability of MFIs improve with good governance practices and conversely that more profitable and sustainable MFIs have better governance systems.     

Determinants of Funding Strategies and Actuarial Choices for Defined-Benefit Pension Plans*

This paper examines the effects of firms' financial and pension profiles on their funding strategies and actuarial choices. The paper uses reports filed by individual pension plans with the Department of Labor under the requirements of the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 for the analysis. Evidence reported in the paper shows that as firms become overfunded, they make conservative actuarial choices to avoid visibility costs, and that as firms become underfunded, they make liberal actuarial choices to avoid visibility costs. As the annual contributions increase relative to the permissible contribution ranges, firms make conservative actuarial choices to minimize penalties and maximize tax benefits. As the annual contributions decrease relative to the permissible contribution ranges, firms make liberal actuarial choices to minimize penalties and maximize tax benefits. The larger the profitability, cash flow from operations, and tax liability, and the smaller the debt of a firm, the higher the likelihood that the firm's managers will make conservative actuarial choices to maximize contributions. Conversely, the smaller the profitability, cash flow from operations, and tax liability, and the larger the debt of a firm, the higher the likelihood that the firm's managers will make liberal actuarial choices to minimize contributions. This evidence, which is consistent with the hypothesis of funding management, can aid the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) in regulating the defined-benefit pension plans more effectively and help plan beneficiaries to manage their retirement portfolios more efficiently. The debiasing method developed in the paper can provide investors and creditors with the tools to identify the discretionary components of pension liabilities and thereby value firms more efficiently.     

融资约束对现金持有动机强弱影响的实证分析

在不同的财务背景下公司现金持有动机强弱表现是否存在差异,这是学术界近年研究的热点。文章以1998—2006年连续四年有数据的沪深上市公司为样本,通过公司规模四分位数、样本期间发生股利支付与否作为融资约束与否的判别标准,分析融资约束公司与非融资约束公司现金持有动机强弱表现差异。实证结果表明：我国上市公司融资约束与否直接影响到现金持有决策过程中动机强弱的表现。为了避免现金短缺和投资机会的丧失等情况的发生,我国上市公司在整个现金持有决策中均表现谨慎,注重现金持有的预防性动机和交易性动机作用的发挥。     

现金持有对家族企业市场竞争力的影响——基于CEO来源的视角

当前我国家族企业已陆续进入代际传承的重要阶段,企业CEO也出现了由一代、二代或外部经理人这三种不同来源的安排。不同来源的CEO从现金持有的交易动机、预防动机和代理动机出发,会选择不同的现金持有战略,从而影响企业的市场竞争力。文章以2010-2014年沪深两市A股上市家族企业为研究对象,研究现金持有水平与企业市场竞争力之间的一般关系,并根据家族企业的特殊性和差异性,推断家族企业现金持有是否同样具有竞争优势,还进一步研究家族企业不同CEO来源对现金持有竞争优势的影响。研究发现,家族企业的现金持有能够增强企业的市场竞争力,即家族企业存在现金持有的竞争优势。而且家族企业CEO的不同来源会对企业现金持有的竞争优势产生较大影响,具体说,家族创始人CEO由于维护社会情感财富和代际传承等原因,可能会损害企业现金持有的竞争优势,降低家族企业现金持有价值;家族二代CEO出于二次创业的动力,反而会加强企业现金持有的竞争优势;外部经理人担任CEO为了个人声誉和薪酬,也会显著加强企业现金持有的竞争优势。文章从家族企业这一特殊样本出发,丰富了家族企业现金持有竞争优势的研究,并从家族企业代际传承的视角,独特地研究了不同CEO来源对家族企业现金持有竞争优势的重要影响,同时也扩展了代际传承经济后果的研究。     

基于系统动力学的企业现金流预测研究

文章将传统财务预测与基于系统动力学财务预测作对比,分析企业现金流在经营活动、投资活动、筹资活动和分配活动之间的关系,建立企业现金流预测模型。同时以某上市公司的财务数据为例,对该企业未来三年的现金流的变化趋势进行预测。该模型的建立有助于为企业管理层提供决策参考。     

试论企业现金流的管理与控制

在我国市场经济不断完善、经营风险日益加剧的今天,企业拥有足够数量的现金在保证企业正常运行方面的重要性越来越突出。加强现金流量的管理与控制,始终使企业具备满足运营所需现金是财务管理中的一项重要工作。     

信息技术类上市公司财务危机预警实证研究

以沪、深A股2008-2012年28家信息技术类上市公司为研究样本,利用ST公司财务危机前3年的数据初步选用21个初始预警变量;从样本的信息显著性和重复性出发,采用因子分析法等方法筛选基础预警指标,最终确定净资产增长率、净利润增长率、技术人员比率等8个指标作为模型初始变量;接着运用Logistic回归分析构建财务危机预警模型。该模型仅针对信息技术类上市公司,对公司发生财务危机前的财务状况的拟合度较高,具有较强的适用性与指导性。     

Cash demand and financial literacy: A case study using Japanese survey data

Understanding the statistical relationship between cash demand and financial literacy is important in addressing policy concerns in Japan because the government has tried to reduce cash demands for day-to-day transactions and hoarding. However, few scholars have investigated this point because the available statistics on household cash demand do not contain the standard proxy variable for financial literacy and they do not distinguish cash demands among various households for day-to-day transactions and hoarding. Findings from this research fill these gaps by first imputing the missing financial literacy variable from other surveys and then by comparing the distribution of cash holdings for the high, middle, and low levels of financial literacy groups. In comparing the distributions of cash holdings by the three groups, cash distributions were also compared after dropping the observations above higher percentiles, expecting that the cash demand for hoarding would show up in the higher percentile of the cash distributions. Thus, it was possible to examine cash demands for day-to-day transactions. A comparison of the distribution of the ratio of cash demands to total financial assets holdings plus cash demands (hereafter cash ratio) across three levels of financial literacy groups was also made. It was found that a person with a higher level of financial literacy tends to have a large amount of cash holdings, perhaps mainly for the sake of hoarding; however, the person also tends to have other kinds of financial assets and thus a lower cash ratio value. Taking those findings at face value, the promotion of financial literacy and cashless payments for day-to-day transactions would reduce the relatively small amount of cash demands for day-to-day transactions, but it would not necessarily reduce the amount of cash demands for hoarding.     

利用现金流量综合分析数据改进上市公司财务危机预警

本文对现金流量进行了重新分类 ,建立了现金流量综合分析模型 ,深入揭示了上市公司现金流量变化的原因 ,从而为不同信息使用者提供了更有价值的信息。在分析现有财务危机预警模型的基础上 ,利用现金流量综合分析模型的有关数据对其进行了改进。通过部分上市公司财务数据对原模     

The East Asian crisis and financing corporate investment: is there a cause for concern?

In view of limited empirical evidence concerning the microeconomic aspects of corporate financial problems in the East Asian countries in the 1990s, this paper analyses the financing pattern of corporate investment in Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand. The analysis is based on an unbalanced panel of listed firms during the period 1989–1997. By using firm size, retention practices, and leverage as three different indicators of financial constraint on firm investment, we have examined the role of various internal and external financing variables on corporate investment in the sample countries. Results indicate that a large number of sample firms depend on free cash flow, especially in Indonesia; there was also a steady increase in debt-equity ratio in all countries. There were signs of agency costs in the use of cash flow in Korea and Malaysia and also in the use of debt financing in Malaysia and Thailand. There was also sign of over-investment among the Thai firms during 1994–1997 though it appears very little if at all was done to redress it in time.     

COVID-19 impact on firm investment—Evidence from Chinese publicly listed firms

The COVID-19 outbreak had a significant impact on business cash flows and investment activities. This paper examined the COVID-19 impact on Chinese business investment in 3326 A-share listed quarterly financial reports, from which it was found that the negative relationship was more pronounced in the large, eastern Chinese state-owned firms. Using a propensity score matching method and difference-in-differences estimation, corporate financial flexibility was also examined, with the results indicating that high cash flexibility provided a buffer that allowed firms to better deal with adverse external shocks as the firms that had high cash flexibility were able to significantly increase their investments after the COVID-19 outbreak. Various robustness tests were conducted, all of which verified the robustness of the results. Overall, the empirical results provided evidence that the COVID-19 pandemic in China had a negative impact on Chinese listed firms, and verified the vital role of flexible financial reserves for firm survival and development during crises.     

Evaluating the Relative Impact of Fiscal Incentives and Trade Policies on the Returns to Manufacturing in Taiwan, 1955–1995*

In the present paper, an integrated cash flow model is developed to examine the relative impact of tax incentives, financial subsidies, and macroeconomic variables on the profitability of industrial investments. It allows for the variables in the model to interact with each other. An application of the model is carried out for Taiwan, which has implemented a variety of fiscal incentives over the past 40 years. The principal policy conclusion is that trade and macroeconomic policies are much more important than income tax incentives or subsidized finance policies in determining the success of Taiwan's industrialization process. The effects of all of the fiscal incentives are found to be much smaller than those of the trade policies or the fundamental trends in macroeconomic variables such as the movement of the real exchange rate and the real wage rate.     

Financial risk exposure of returns to education: Panel evidence from Korea*

The present study examined financial market risk exposure of human capital returns, which are represented by the returns to education, using panel data for Korea. Overall, financial market shocks seem to be irrelevant to returns to education. However, when we divide a financial market shock into cash flow news and discount rate news leading to a negative risk premium, returns to education increase after positive news about future cash flows and unexpected increases in discount rates Therefore, the risk exposure to cash flow shocks is offset by the exposure to discount rate shocks. The returns to education of low‐income workers were significantly exposed to the cash flow risk as compared to those with a high income, but they were offset by the positive correlation to discount rate shocks. In contrast, considering the gap between generations, the old generation was not only less exposed to the cash flow risk compared to the young generation regarding returns to education but also positively correlated with the discount rate shock, resulting in less exposure to financial market risks.     

Fiscal lessons from the East Asian financial crisis

This paper examines the financial crises experienced in East Asian countries beginning in 1997. A common thread of these occurrences is the failure to address the risks of positions and policies by either the public or private sector, suggesting that there is a need to improve fiscal flexibility, to better understand public sector assets and liabilities, and for a more flexible public cash management or control system. The international community may need to establish fast-disbursing assistance systems to support this increased flexibility.     

Measuring rural welfare in colonial Africa: did Uganda's smallholders thrive?

Recent scholarship on historical welfare development in Sub‐Saharan Africa has uncovered long‐term trends in standards of living. How the majority of rural dwellers fared, however, remains largely elusive. This study develops a new approach to reconstruct rural living standards in a historical context. It builds upon a well‐established real wage literature, but moves beyond it to capture rural realities, employing sub‐national rural survey, census, and price data. The approach is applied to a case study of colonial and early post‐colonial Uganda (1915–70). The case study yields a number of findings. While the expanding smallholder‐based cash crop sector established itself as the backbone of Uganda's colonial economy, farm characteristics remained largely stagnant after the initial adoption of cash crops. Smallholders maintained living standards well above subsistence level, and while the profitability of cash crops was low, their cultivation provided a reliable source of cash income. Around the time of decolonization, unskilled wages rose rapidly while farm incomes lagged behind. As a result, an urban–rural income reversal took place. The study also reveals considerable differences within Uganda. Smallholders in Uganda's banana regions required fewer labour inputs to maintain a farm income than their grain‐farming counterparts, creating opportunities for additional income generation and livelihood diversification.