运用抵押率降低贷款行业风险

恰当地管理贷款行业中存在的风险至关重要。长期以来,放贷人借助首付准则和抵押贷款保险来降低风险敞口。本文讨论了抵押贷款行业中风险管理的各种方法,着重讨论了欧美的情况。     

我国保险公司开展住房反向抵押养老保险的研究

近年来,随着我国人口老龄化程度加深、传统家庭结构发生变化和社会基本养老保障体系的压力加剧,如何改善老年人群体的生活状况,提高老年人的自我保障能力,成为了整个社会面临的一大难题,“以房养老”模式的呼声日益高涨,而保险公司开展住房反向抵押养老保险业务就可以为“以房养老”模式提供一种切实有效的实施路径。本文将介绍住房反向抵押养老保险的概念与产品特征,我国开展住房反向抵押养老保险业务的意义和可行性分析,以及我国开展住房反向抵押养老模式的探索。在此基础上,本文将系统阐述保险公司开展住房反向抵押养老保险业务所具备的独特优势和存在的阻碍因素,并对解决这些阻碍因素提出相关建议。     

FHA reform: Balancing public purpose and financial soundness

This paper discusses the policy debate leading up to the passage of legislation to reform the Federal Housing Administration's home mortgage insurance program in 1990. An actuarial study conducted by an independent accounting firm concluded that the insurance fund's net worth had steadily declined during the 1980s, and was less than the minimum needed to protect the taxpayer. Policy discussion necessarily addressed the trade-off between the financial soundness of the fund and its public purpose of promoting homeownership for middle- and moderate-income families. The legislation that was enacted—the most substantive change in the program in many years—included raising the net worth of the fund by increasing the mortgage insurance premium, adopting a sliding scale for premiums related to the original LTV of the mortgage, and reducing claims from foreclosures by requiring homebuyers to put up more cash at the time of closing (in the form of closing costs, which can be financed in FHA mortgages, rather than a higher down payment).     

论我国养老保险逃费的危害、原因和治理

养老保险基金主要由劳动者和企事业单位缴费形成,它是养老保险制度赖以建立的基础。养老保险逃费对这一基础起着极大的破坏作用。调查研究结果表明,我国的养老保险逃费问题比较突出,相当一部分应缴费单位和个人都存在逃费现象,逃费形式花样百出,它直接影响养老保险制度的正常运行和发展。逃费是经济发展水平和劳动者的收入状况、养老保险主体行为和养老保险制度本身多种因素共同作用的结果。克服养老保险逃费需要从多方面着手:努力发展经济,不断提高劳动者收入;改革养老保险管理制度;充分调动企业参加养老保险的积极性;提高劳动者参加养老保险的积极性;强化各级政府的责任;加强养老保险管理部门的责任。     

Deposit insurance around the world: A comprehensive analysis and database

This paper provides a comprehensive, global database of deposit insurance arrangements as of 2013. We extend our earlier dataset by including recent adopters of deposit insurance and information on the use of government guarantees on banks’ assets and liabilities, including during the recent global financial crisis. We also create a Safety Net Index capturing the generosity of the deposit insurance scheme and government guarantees on banks’ balance sheets. The data show that deposit insurance has become more widespread and more extensive in coverage since the global financial crisis, which also triggered a temporary increase in the government protection of non-deposit liabilities and bank assets. In most cases, these guarantees have since been formally removed but coverage of deposit insurance remains above pre-crisis levels, raising concerns about implicit coverage and moral hazard going forward.     

Pricing Mortgage Insurance with Asymmetric Jump Risk and Default Risk: Evidence in the U.S. Housing Market

This study provides the valuation of mortgage insurance (MI) considering upward and downward jumps in housing prices, which display separate distributions and probabilities of occurrence, and the mortgage insurer??s default risk. The empirical results indicate that the asymmetric double exponential jump diffusion performs better than the log-normally distributed jump diffusion and the Black-Scholes model, generally used in previous literature, to fit the single-family mortgage national average of all home prices in the US. Finally, the sensitivity analysis shows that the MI premium is an increasing function of the normal volatility, the mean down-jump magnitudes, the shock frequency of the abnormal bad events, and the asset-liability structure of the mortgage insurer. In particular, the shock frequency of the abnormal bad events has the largest effect of all parameters on the MI premium. The asset-liability structure of the mortgage insurer and shock frequency of the abnormal bad events have a larger effect of all parameters on the default risk premium.     

Are Farmers’ Behaviors Rational When They Pay Less for Social Endowment Insurance? Evidence from Chinese Rural Survey Data

In recent years, farmers have had high participation rate in the rural social endowment insurance in China, for which personal contribution and government subsidy are the main funding source. There have been increasingly more farmers participating into the program. However, their enthusiasm for high premium payment was rather low as most of them selected the minimum premium for insurance. In this article, the discounted utility theory from behavioral economics was adopted to analyze insurance selection behaviors of farmers; in addition, a discounted incremental utility model with a hyperbolic discounting function was also further constructed to describe their insurance decision-making processes. Based on the investigation of time preferences of farmers, their insurance participation behaviors of diverse natures were simulated. The corresponding results indicated that active insurance participation and low insurance premium payment were rational choices for most farmers; in comparison, for the elders with higher income, different choices can be made. Therefore, policy makers could formulate differentiated subsidy policies directing at farmers from different groups, so as to stimulate their enthusiasm for premium payment.     

Optimal insurance in the presence of reinsurance

This paper studies an optimal insurance and reinsurance design problem among three agents: policyholder, insurer, and reinsurer. We assume that the preferences of the parties are given by distortion risk measures, which are equivalent to dual utilities. By maximizing the dual utility of the insurer and jointly solving the optimal insurance and reinsurance contracts, it is found that a layering insurance is optimal, with every layer being borne by one of the three agents. We also show that reinsurance encourages more insurance, and is welfare improving for the economy. Furthermore, it is optimal for the insurer to charge the maximum acceptable insurance premium to the policyholder. This paper also considers three other variants of the optimal insurance/reinsurance models. The first two variants impose a limit on the reinsurance premium so as to prevent insurer to reinsure all its risk. An optimal solution is still layering insurance, though the insurer will have to retain higher risk. Finally, we study the effect of competition by permitting the policyholder to insure its risk with an insurer, a reinsurer, or both. The competition from the reinsurer dampens the price at which an insurer could charge to the policyholder, although the optimal indemnities remain the same as the baseline model. The reinsurer will however not trade with the policyholder in this optimal solution.     

制度变迁视角下的社会保险费征缴体制研究

自我国建立社会保险制度以来,采用了三种不同的社会保险费征缴体制,即劳动部门全责征收的体制、劳动核定、税务征收的核征分离体制、税务部门全责征收的体制,这是社会保险费征缴体制变迁的结果。社会保险费征缴体制是社会保障体系建设的重要重成部分,系统分析社会保险费征缴体制变迁的一般规律和发展方向,对于指导社会保险费征缴体制改革,加强社会保障体系建设具有重要意义。     

商业性森林保险与林权抵押贷款组合的发展现状、问题及建议

白山市森林资源十分丰富,林业在全市国民经济发展中有举足轻重的地位。目前,我国正在实施的林权制度改革,林权抵押贷款业务开始发展,但由于森林固有的弱质性使林权抵押贷款面临较大的风险,因此白山市在全省率先开办了＂林木火灾保险＋‘林富通’个人林权抵押贷款＂组合业务,探索出一条＂护林＂、＂惠民＂、拓宽＂三农＂金融服务的新途径。     

Valuing mortgage loan servicing

We develop an intertemporal model for valuing mortgage loan servicing contracts. The model includes a stochastic short-term interest rate and realized inflation rate which jointly determine the current mortgage coupon rate, the mortgagor's prepayment decision, the servicer's future net cash flows, and the rate at which to discount these future cash flows. Several potential uses of the model for institutions that service mortgages and trade servicing portfolios are illustrated by the application of the model to servicing fixed-rate mortgages and adjustable-rate mortgages. The model also is applicable to regulatory issues and to the servicing of other types of loans.The authors gratefully acknowledge support from the Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Washington, D.C., the Purdue Research Foundation, West Lafayette, Indiana, and the Richard D. Irwin Foundation, Homewood, Illinois.     

广州房地产按揭行业的历史演进及未来趋势

通过文献整理和行业专家访谈,本文对广州房地产按揭行业的产生与发展的历史脉络进行了系统梳理,首次提出广州房地产按揭行业发展经历了准备期、萌芽期、成长期、调整期和发展期等五个历史阶段,并对每一历史时期的代表性事件进行了阐述。以此为依据,对当前广州房地产按揭行业存在的突出问题进行了分析,指出房地产按揭证券化、互联网技术应用、批发按揭和共建按揭行业生态圈是广州房地产按揭行业未来发展方向。     

基于自回归分布滞后模型的我国财产险保费增长实证研究

通过建立财产险保费增长的自回归分布滞后模型,使用Engle-Granger两步法对1980—2010年我国产险保费增长进行实证研究。研究结果表明,我国财产险保费与GDP之间存在着协整关系,自回归分布滞后模型比经典回归模型具有更好的拟合效果和预测能力。     

What drives mortgage fees in Australia?

We investigate the factors that affect total, ongoing and origination fees of mortgages in Australia during the period 1996 to 2011. We find that banks charge significantly higher total and ongoing fees than mortgage corporations although they require lower origination fees. We also find that fee levels are dependent on loan size, loan‐to‐value ratio and loan features like term of the loan and presence of an offset account. Further, we confirm that lenders trade‐off higher (lower) interest rates with lower (higher) fee levels. Finally, our results show that mortgage fees are significantly affected by market conditions.     

Mutual fund insurance

During the 1970's, mutual fund insurance was sold in the U.S. by the Harleysville and Prudential Insurance Companies. This paper examines the valuation and demand for this insurance. It illustrates that because of its design, for many plausible combinations of model parameters, a competitive premium need not exist for the Harleysville contract. A competitive premium will always exist for the Prudential policy, however the value is directly related to the age of the purchaser. Harleysville charged the same premium to all funds and therefore was subject to adverse selection. Evidence of this effect is provided by illustrating that the demand for the insurance was directly related to its competitive market value.     

产品结构失衡对寿险公司资本结构、盈利能力和偿付能力的影响——以上市保险公司为例

产品结构是寿险公司经营管理的重要内容,我国寿险公司传统寿险和意健险占比日益下降,新型寿险占比过高,分红险"一险独大",不利于寿险业本质功能和竞争优势的发挥。以太保、平安集团为例,实证分析产品结构失衡对盈利能力、资本结构和偿付能力的负面影响。通过对我国1980年～2010年间"保费收入"和"利润总额"进行回归分析,证明两者之间相关度日益下降,"以保费规模论英雄"已不合时宜。从监管导向、经营模式、会计制度、产品创新保护机制、保险意识角度分析原因,并寻找解决对策。     

税务征收体制下的社会保险费征管制度建设研究

我国社会保险费征管体制改革正在不断深入。当前,社会保险费征管仍存在制度设计有待完善、法律依据不够清晰的问题。本文基于税收征管视角,对社会保险费征管制度进行了重新审视,在全面梳理了制约社会保险费征管制度完善的限制性因素的基础上,从科学设置社会保险费征管前置程序、全面构建社会保险费征管的保障程序等多个方面,对将社会保险费征管融入税收征管流程的可行性进行了分析和探讨,以期为我国社会保险费征管制度的完善提供参考。     

A Note on Partial Insurance and the Arrow-Pratt Measure of Risk Aversion

Pratt [1964] establishes that a more risk-averse individual in the Arrow-Pratt sense has a higher compensating risk premium for full insurance, but no comparable result has been established for partial insurance. Ross [1981] shows that a more risk-averse individual in the Arrow-Pratt sense may not be willing to pay more for a reduction in risk in the sense of mean-preserving contraction. We show that a more risk-averse individual in the Arrow-Pratt sense has a higher compensating risk premium for all empirically relevant forms of partial insurance because they induce a reduction in risk in the stronger sense of Bickel and Lemann [1979].JEL Classification No.: D81     

The use of Hurst and effective return in investing

This study measures the deposit insurance premium under stochastic interest rates for Taiwan's banks by applying the two-step maximum likelihood estimation method. The estimation results suggest that the current premiums—charging 5, 5.5, and 6 basis points per dollar of insured deposits—are too low, but largely reflect the rank orders of the risks of the insured banks. Moreover, the regression results indicate that asset volatility dominates bank size in determining the insurance premium. When the volatility risk is decomposed into two parts, credit risk significantly dominates interest-rate risk. An examination of bank characteristics indicates that privately owned old banks are more likely to have lower levels of credit risk, asset volatility, and deposit insurance premiums than state-owned banks and newly chartered banks.     

Mortgage timing

We study how the term structure of interest rates relates to mortgage choice at both household and aggregate levels. A simple utility framework of mortgage choice points to the long-term bond risk premium as distinct from the yield spread and the long yield as a theoretical determinant of mortgage choice: when the bond risk premium is high, fixed-rate mortgage payments are high, making adjustable-rate mortgages more attractive. We confirm empirically that the bulk of the time variation in both aggregate and loan-level mortgage choice can be explained by time variation in the bond risk premium, whether bond risk premia are measured using forecasters’ data, a vector autoregressive (VAR) term structure model, or a simple household decision rule based on adaptive expectations. The household decision rule moves in lock-step with mortgage choice, lending credibility to a theory of strategic mortgage timing by households.