城市居民出行方式选择行为及影响因素分析

居民出行行为研究在交通管理和控制中有着非常重要的作用。对城市居民个体出行行为的研究,是城市交通规划、建设、管理中一项不可缺少的基础性工作。居民的出行方式选择通过改变城市交通客运结构来影响城市交通系统的运行情况。笔者基于对城市居民出行可供选择的交通方式优缺点的分析,对居民出行方式选择的过     

大型空港客运交通枢纽客流集散规律研究

大型空港客运枢纽在综合运输体系中衔接了各种不同交通方式,承担着居民出行、顺利中转换乘等重要功能。为提高大型空港客运交通枢纽交通网络运行效率,在分析客流聚集和疏散特性的基础上,对客流到达样本数据进行拟合,建立基于离散分布的分方式客流集聚模型,根据非集计理论与方法,构建客流疏散Logit模型。最后,以成都天府机场为例,对所构建模型的适用性进行验证,验证结果为综合交通客运枢纽布局方案优化提供了决策依据。     

基于贝叶斯网络的高速铁路旅客出行方式预测研究

为准确地预测高速铁路综合客运枢纽地区的旅客出行方式比例,以高速铁路旅客出行方式为研究对象,分析高速铁路旅客选择不同交通方式的影响因素,建立基于贝叶斯网络的高速铁路旅客出行方式选择模型。以宜昌东站为例,结合高速铁路旅客出行调查数据,应用SPSSModeler软件对所建立的模型进行验证评估,并对高速铁路旅客选择不同出行方式的比例进行预测。结果表明,该模型能较全面地考虑高速铁路旅客出行选择的影响因素,对预测高速铁路综合客运枢纽地区旅客的出行方式具有较好的适用性,预测精度较高。     

轨道交通对居民交通方式选择的影响研究

为研究轨道交通开通给居民出行方式带来的变化及居民出行方式选择的影响因素,以宁波轨道交通开通后的居民交通方式选择为研究对象,构建交通方式选择MNL模型,利用模型得到参数估计值,通过计算事件发生比,分析变量对居民交通方式选择的影响程度,并验证模型的有效性。结果表明,MNL模型能够有效说明个体出行决策,预测正确率达75.6%。最后,从公共交通、小汽车、非机动车3个角度,有针对性地提出优化宁波市居民出行方式选择的对策与建议,为相关部门调整优化交通结构布局提供理论支持和可行借鉴。     

基于非集计模型的交通方式选择研究

基于非集计模型的基本理论与建模方法,依据2002年重庆市主城区综合交通调查数据,建立了交通方式选择MNL模型,通过多项logistic分析对模型进行标定,并用2008年居民出行调查数据检验模型精度.所建立的模型亦用于研究影响交通方式选择的关键因素,通过对可控影响因素的引导和调整,达到优化交通方式结构的目的.研究结果表明,非集计模型较集计模型能更好地表达居民出行方式选择行为,有利于交通方式结构的调整和优化.     

北京市对外客运枢纽客流及集疏系统特征分析

城市对外客运枢纽是城市内外交通联系的结合部,其客流及集疏系统特征直接影响其组织及优化的侧重点及相应策略。在阐述不同对外客运枢纽乘客年龄构成、来源地特征、职业构成等个体属性,出行目的、出行停留时间等出行特征,以及对外客运枢纽服务群体特征的基础上,从集疏系统结构特征、时空特征、衔接特征?3?个方面对对外客运枢纽集疏系统特征进行分析,最后以北京市为例,提出缩短枢纽集疏距离与时间、优化集疏系统衔接设计、选择发展策略的侧重点等北京市对外客运枢纽的发展策略。     

北京市远景年客运交通模式优化研究

从可持续发展的角度出发,以交通效率为目标函数,以居民出行需求、可达性、道路资源、能源消耗、城市环境容许为约束条件,采用线性规划的方法,对北京市远景年客运交通结构模式进行优化,并根据优化结果提出北京发展客运交通的建议.     

“骑车族”出行悲喜录

自行车交通是城市交通的一个重要组成部分,主要承担城市里8公里之内的近距离出行。同时,它是解决居民出行“最后一公里”换乘的重要出行方式,具有低污染、低能耗、低资源占用、低事故率、低经济负担的特点,是一种可持续发展的城市客运交通方式。     

综合运输体系下客运结构合理配置模型及算法

分析在多种交通方式存在情况下乘客的交通选择行为,并基于随机效用理论和层次分析法构造了综合运输体系下客运结构合理配置模型及算法。考虑到我国现阶段收入水平是影响旅客交通方式选择的主要因素,将旅客划分为4类,并计算分析得到各类旅客的出行选择结果。该模型可用于客运市场份额预测,为优化配置交通运输资源提供理论依据。     

信息技术对城市客运交通结构的影响分析

定性分析了信息技术对城市客运量的替代作用,指出信息技术的发展使得部分城市交通虚拟化,城市居民出行目的结构随之而改变,进而导致了城市交通客运结构的变化.并构建了信息技术对客运交通结构影响的模型,为信息时代的交通规划工作提供依据.     

Transport mode choice in South East Asia: Investigating the relationship between transport users’ perception and travel behaviour in Johor Bahru,Malaysia

The worldwide increase in private car dependency poses a set of significant environmental, economic and social sustainability challenges that continue to undermine the urban quality of life. Rapid motorisation, particularly in South East Asia (SEA), has emerged as a global concern given the region’s cumulative population, rate of industrialisation, and large-scale urbanisation. Thus, there is a compelling need to enhance our understanding of the underlying dynamics of how people perceive and use transportation such that transport planning is better placed to address the current, unsustainable travel patterns in SEA. Despite this need, there has been relatively limited SEA-based research that has endeavoured to examine travel perceptions and transport mode choice from a non-instrumental perspective. This research redresses this deficit by investigating the relationship between transport users’ perceptions and travel behaviours within SEA, with a particular focus on psychosocial drivers of transport mode choice interfaced with more traditional instrumental measures.Spatially stratified survey data have been collected in a case study area, Johor Bahru, Malaysia, comprising users from different transport user groups. Employing regression modelling, drivers of individual’s travel behaviour are examined. Results highlight the merit in recognising the role of non-instrumental motives alongside instrumental motives to explain transport mode choice. We conclude by highlighting that transport mode choices are motivated by a range of locational, socio-demographic, psychological and cultural determinants. The current research has contributed to a better understanding of transport mode choice in Johor Bahru and provides a foundation for future SEA-based travel behaviour research. Studies in this area can inform more sustainable travel behaviour in the SEA region.     

Accessibility modelling: predicting the impact of planned transport infrastructure on accessibility patterns in Edinburgh,UK

The achievement of good spatial accessibility and equity in the distribution of urban services is one of the supreme goals for urban planners. With Scottish Government backing, the City of Edinburgh Council (CEC) has started to construct a tram network to cater for the future needs of Scotland’s capital city by providing an integrated transport solution using trams and buses. Spatial Network Analysis of Public Transport Accessibility (SNAPTA) which is a GIS-based accessibility model has been developed to measure the accessibility by public transport to different urban services and activities. The model responds to several limitations in other existing accessibility models in planning practice. It offers an alternative and practical tool to help planners and decision makers in examining the strengths and weaknesses of land use – transport integration. SNAPTA has been applied to a pilot study in Edinburgh city to identify the contribution of the infrastructure improvements of the tram system and Edinburgh South Suburban Railway (ESSR) to improved accessibility by public transport to six types of activity opportunities. This paper outlines the concept and methodology of the SNAPTA model, and presents the findings related to this pilot study with a focus on changes in potential accessibility to jobs between four different public transport network scenarios. The accessibility values so obtained help to identify the gaps in the coverage of the public transport network and the efficiency in the spatial distribution of urban services and activities. The findings focus on whether the planned transport infrastructures for Edinburgh will lead to better accessibility and reduced inequity (in terms of accessibility) across the city.     

Children's school commuting in the Netherlands: Does it matter how urban form is incorporated in mode choice models?

Walking and cycling to school is environmentally sustainable and increases children's physical activity. Although it is known that the built environment influences children's travel behavior, there is scant knowledge of how urban form along children's commuting routes affects walking and cycling separately, or of how to incorporate urban form exposures in transport mode choice models. This research investigated (a) the associations between children's transport mode choice and urban form correlates en route, and (b) the consequences of different urban form operationalizations (i.e., individual variables, composite measure, and principal components [PCs]). Global Positioning System devices were used to track 623 trips to and from school made by Dutch children aged 6–11 years. Urban form exposures were derived with geographic information systems, and their relationships with mode choice were tested with mixed multinomial logit models in a cross-sectional research design. Differences between the number of associated urban form variables, their magnitudes, and their significance levels were found for both walking and cycling, independent of the operationalization. Urban form was most influential for walking, whereas distance-related effects were absorbed when modeled as PCs. The highest model fit was achieved through PCs; the composite measure resulted in the lowest fit. To maximize the effectiveness of planning and health interventions, walking and cycling must be targeted separately. Policymakers should avoid “one-fits-all policies,” which are deemed to be inefficient. Because urban form affects model interpretation and fit, careful attention should be paid to how urban form is modeled, and sensitivity analyses should be performed.     

A border effect in airport choice: Evidence from Western Europe

Some commentators suggest that air travelers are reluctant to use a foreign airport as a point of departure for their journey. Such reluctance has implications for marketing and policy measures, especially in border regions and in smaller countries, such as the Netherlands and Belgium. In this study, we tested this supposed barrier effect of national borders with empirical data.Our research is based on a subsample (n = 4083) of a large-scale survey among German, Dutch and Belgian adults. Participants were asked about their most recent flight, preferences regarding long-distance travel, and general travel behavior. The survey information about the most recent trip was linked to the Official Airline Guide with data from 18 airports in the Western European region. On average, however, only 10 airports offered a direct connection to the destination of the respondents’ most recent flight. A conditional logit model with varying choice sets allowed us to model only the relevant airports per respondent, while accounting for other known determinants in airport choice, such as travel time, airline competition, and number of available flights.The model results confirmed our expectations: people strongly prefer a departure airport situated in their own country. The model predictions suggest that without the border effect the share of people in our sample departing abroad would rise from 7.7% to 18.7%. Experience (with multiple airports as a point of departure) mitigates the barrier effect of the border. The performance of our model is good: the median probabilitie for the chosen alternative is 68%. Our research stresses the importance of the barrier effect of borders in airport choice: even when traveling across borders in the European sky, national borders remain important.     

Towards enhancing the last-mile delivery: An effective crowd-tasking model with scalable solutions

In urban logistics, the last-mile delivery from the warehouse to the consumer’s home has become more and more challenging with the continuous growth of E-commerce. It requires elaborate planning and scheduling to minimize the global traveling cost, but often results in unattended delivery as most consumers are away from home. In this paper, we propose an effective large-scale mobile crowd-tasking model in which a large pool of citizen workers are used to perform the last-mile delivery. To efficiently solve the model, we formulate it as a network min-cost flow problem and propose various pruning techniques that can dramatically reduce the network size. Comprehensive experiments were conducted with Singapore and Beijing datasets. The results show that our solution can support real-time delivery optimization in the large-scale mobile crowd-sourcing problem.     

Determinants of travel mode choice for seeking healthcare: A comparison between elderly and non-elderly patients

People's travel mode choices can vary significantly by age group due to different influencing factors, but relevant research on health-related travel is scarce. In this study, we explored and compared the determinants of travel mode choice for healthcare-seeking non-elderly and elderly patients in Beijing, China. A multinomial logit model was used to analyze data from a recent healthcare-seeking behavior survey. The results show that increased age discourages car use and slightly prompts non-motorized travel in the non-elderly, but has the opposite effect in the elderly group. Household income has a negative effect on non-motorized travel in the non-elderly, but a positive effect in elderly patients. Highly mixed land use, intensive urban development, and difficulty in parking discourage non-elderly patients from traveling by car, but none of these factors have a significant effect on the elderly. Our findings shed light on the unique transportation demands for different age cohorts and inform the creation of age-specific interventions to improve overall access to health.     

Mobility in the transition to retirement – the intertwining of transportation and everyday projects

Through travel diaries and interviews with newly retired urban residents in Sweden our aim was to explore (1) mobility patterns in the transition to retirement, (2) the influence of space–time restrictions and resources on mobility and (3) the meaning and embodied experience of mobility. This time-geographic study contributes with knowledge on how mobility is influenced by individual, social and geographical contexts. Illustrated by four cases, our result show that retirement changes the preconditions for mobility and creates new space–time restrictions. To spend more time on projects that were previously carried out outside working time, such as caring for grandchildren, volunteer work and household responsibilities, influenced the informants’ demands for mobility and choice of transport mode. However, the informants have resources that can be seen as strategies to overcome space–time restrictions. Most of the informants found it important to structure the day, to some it was vital to have something to do during the day while others enjoyed the possibility to take each day as it comes. Everyday mobility was a way of forming a structure by getting out of the house, either just for a walk or for making errands. The informants’ embodied experiences of mobility influenced their choice to walk and cycle for transport for the reasons of comfort, get fresh air, or simply to get out of the house. The daily mobility pattern that was established was a result of individual preferences and resources as well as negotiations with family members. We conclude that the transition to retirement is a period when new mobility patterns are considered, evaluated and practiced.     

Private motorised urban mobility in China’s large cities: the social causes of change and an agenda for future research

The growth of private motorised urban mobility has become a key issue in relation to environmental quality in China’s cities. This paper reports on a nationwide study of the changes in car use in the 2000s, conducted in eleven large cities. This may assist us in filling the gaps in our existing knowledge, which is based on individual city cases. It is apparent that China’s large cities are embracing a new era of the automobile at an unexpected speed and scale. However, at the same time, it seems that a ‘peak’ in car use has occurred in Shanghai and Beijing, as either the absolute number of VKT per capita has dropped or its growth has slowed in these cities. The changes in urban mobility are deeply affected by social and economic transition factors. The paper provides an in-depth analysis of the effects of increasing incomes and the growing middle class, changing lifestyles and the emerging consumer society, the appearance of the e-Society and an increasingly ageing society. In particular, the growing demand for car use by the younger generation (G2), women and elderly people for the purpose of social activity has become an important force behind the increase in overall VKT. The paper concludes with a discussion of current theoretical perspectives and the issues which should be addressed in future research on the social aspects of private motorised urban mobility in China.     

Commute travel and its effect on housing tenure choice of males and females living in the urban and rural areas of Bangalore city in India

This study attempts to identify various factors influencing individual’s choice of housing tenure with emphasis on the effect of commute trips on that choice. It also focuses on the sensitivity to various factors affecting the housing tenure choice between males and females of urban and rural areas. The study is based on both exploratory analysis and estimation of statistical models using a Household Travel Survey data collected for Bangalore Metropolitan Region in year 2010. The results indicate the role of both the land use attributes and commute travel characteristics on tenure choice and the behavioural difference between males and females. The sensitivity to various attributes is also observed to be varying between the individuals living in the urban and rural areas of the city. The finding that private mode use for commuting governs the housing tenure choice of individuals suggests that promotion of urban-transport policies such as Transit Oriented Development may be an effective strategy to curb the issues related to energy consumption and emission.     

Can freeway traffic volume information facilitate urban accessibility assessment?: Case study of the city of St. Louis

In urban contexts, accessibility measures are often utilized to represent the interactions among land use, transport and people’s trips to services and other facilities. Accessibility is generally evaluated using conventional traffic measures such as travel time and distance, but traffic volume, which is a product of the travel trips induced by people’s needs, may also be positively related to accessibility. This study tests the hypothesis “can freeway traffic volume information facilitate urban accessibility assessment?” Traffic volume based accessibility models are proposed to investigate this relationship and test the hypothesis. The results indicate that the answer to this question is a qualified “yes”, as there is a statistically significant relationship between traffic volume differences and accessibility. The coefficients of the models can potentially be used as a reference to guide the urban planning process. The limitations of the proposed models can be addressed by deploying Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) traffic sensors on ramps and arterial roadways.