A market model of analysts’ opinions to explain changes in the dispersion of opinions

The demand for and supply of analysts’ opinions in this model yield an equilibrium that demonstrates how the information content of the opinions reacts to changes in exogenous parameters. The model also shows how changes in the parameters make analysts’ opinions more or less dispersed; for example, a decline in investor risk aversion, a decrease in market volatility, and an increase in information costs can lead to analysts’ opinions becoming more similar. Recognizing how exogenous factors can affect the supply and demand of analysts’ opinions gives additional insights into questions concerning what may appear to be herd behavior by analysts and also the relationship between forecast dispersion and information content. (JEL: G29, C71)     

Empirical evidence on the effects of delisting from the National Market System

This study analyzes empirical evidence related to changes in market value and liquidity characteristics of stocks, which are delisted from the National Market System (NMS) due to an elevation of NMS listing standards. Our results are thus relatively independent of the financial conditions of the firms prior to delisting. We document significant increase in bid-ask spreads and decrease in trading volume after delisting. A significant negative stock price reaction around the delisting announcement period is also observed. Both sets of findings suggest that delisting from NMS increases a firm’s cost of capital by adversely affecting the liquidity of its stock. (JEL: G14)     

Threshold Modelling of Stock Return Volatility on Eastern European Markets.

A common finding for developed stock markets is that negative shocks entering the market lead to a larger return volatility than positive shocks of a similar magnitude. The following paper considers two emerging Eastern European Markets where the first point of investigation is whether an analogous asymmetric characteristic is reflected in emerging markets. The second point of investigation is whether the findings differ depending on the institutional microstructure of the exchange being examined. Hence, econometric techniques are adjusted and a ‘double-censored tobit GARCH’ model is developed. This paper finds that no asymmetry exists on either markets and possible reasons for this are proposed. JEL Classification: G14, G15, P21, P34. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Taking ‘Don’t Knows’ as Valid Responses: A Multiple Complete Random Imputation of Missing Data

Incomplete data is a common problem of survey research. Recent work on multiple imputation techniques has increased analysts’ awareness of the biasing effects of missing data and has also provided a convenient solution. Imputation methods replace non-response with estimates of the unobserved scores. In many instances, however, non-response to a stimulus does not result from measurement problems that inhibit accurate surveying of empirical reality, but from the inapplicability of the survey question. In such cases, existing imputation techniques replace valid non-response with counterfactual estimates of a situation in which the stimulus is applicable to all respondents. This paper suggests an alternative imputation procedure for incomplete data for which no true score exists: multiple complete random imputation, which overcomes the biasing effects of missing data and allows analysts to model respondents’ valid ‘I don’t know’ answers.     

Accounting contagion: The case of Enron

The Enron scandal offers the opportunity to assess the degree to which misleading accounting can affect connected firms and industry rivals. While the market was inept at detecting the inaccuracy of Enron’s financial statements, it swiftly punished many connected firms once Enron's faulty accounting was publicized. A cross-sectional analysis documents that the market punished connected firms that had greater exposure to Enron’s business, whose financial statements were viewed as more complex, and that had greater financial leverage. Most of the negative news indicating concern with Enron’s accounting corresponded with a significant decline in the stock prices of firms in the energy and natural gas (ENG) industry, regardless of an explicit connection to Enron. Furthermore, rival firms with direct exposure to Enron and more aggressive earnings-reporting methods also experienced more detrimental effects.     

Market reaction to large bank merger announcements in oligopolies

This paper evaluates the individual and rival stock price reactions to large bank merger announcements and subsequent regulatory rejection in an oligopoly. The results show that the announcements produce significant positive abnormal returns for the merger candidates. Regulatory obstacles and denial of the proposed mergers produce significant negative returns. Analysis of the rivals’ reactions doesn’t produce consistent significant results. This suggests that the market reactions for the merging banks results are driven by expected increases in efficiencies. The rivals’ reaction is explained by the fact that the market would remain contestable after the mergers since the offered products are homogeneous.(JEL G14, G34)     

The Obama effect

Many observers argued that Barack Obama’s candidacy in the U.S. presidential election of 2008 benefited from the financial crisis and recessionary economic conditions which voters blamed on the Republican administration. However, an empirical examination of stock price and public opinion data indicates that improvements in Obama’s electoral prospects led stock price declines and that gains by Obama were more likely to be followed by falling stock prices than by rising prices. This evidence suggests that the poor performance of the stock market in the days leading up to Obama’s victory was partly caused by, rather than causing, Obama’s success.

Why do companies choose to go ipos? New results using data from Taiwan

We examine the determinants of IPOs in Taiwan for the period 1989 to 2000. The regulations in Taiwan permit us to identify firms that met IPO requirements but chose not to go public, allowing for comparisons of firms that choose IPOs and those do not. We find strong evidence that IPOs are not motivated by financing need, that larger and profitable firms are more likely to list equity, and that venture capital provides certification to firm credibility. Other findings provide support for information asymmetry, listing costs, liquidity, owners’ diversification desire, timing, and facilitation of M&As as factors influencing IPO decisions. (JEL G32, G15, G24)     

A bivariate causality between stock prices and exchange rates: evidence from recent Asianflu☆

This paper applies recently developed unit root and cointegration models to determine the appropriate Granger relations between stock prices and exchange rates using recent Asian flu data. Via impulse response functions, it is found that data from South Korea are in agreement with the traditional approach. That is, exchange rates lead stock prices. On the other hand, data of the Philippines suggest the result expected under the portfolio approach: stock prices lead exchange rates with negative correlation. Data from Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Taiwan indicate strong feedback relations, whereas that of Indonesia and Japan fail to reveal any recognizable pattern. %JEL classification: F300; G150     

Financial Disclosure Levels and Foreign Stock Exchange Listing Decisions

Firms are increasingly listing their shares on foreign stock exchanges. However, not all exchanges have had equal appeal. Anecdotal evidence suggests that when firms are making foreign listing decisions, they are influenced by financial disclosure requirements. As a result, regulatory authorities around the globe are weighing increasing demands for foreign capital and investment opportunities against the desire to protect domestic investors from possibly misleading foreign financial disclosures. The competitiveness of domestic stock exchanges often hangs in the balance.
This study examines a key question in this debate: whether firms' choices regarding alternative foreign stock exchange listings are influenced by financial disclosure levels. Examined are the listings of 302 internationally traded firms with at least one foreign listing, on one of nine major exchanges, as of year-end 1987. Also examined are changes in listings between 1981 and 1987, an important design feature since these changes are more likely to have been influenced by differences across countries in financial disclosure levels during this period. Financial disclosure levels are obtained from a survey of 142 experts actively involved in the foreign listing process.
Test results based on the cross-section of listings at year-end 1987 are consistent with the hypothesis that exchange choices are influenced by financial disclosure levels. However, they do not lend support to a second hypothesis suggesting that this effect should operate only for firms whose domestic disclosure levels are lower than those of a given foreign exchange. Tests based on changes in listings between 1981 and 1987 support both hypotheses. Overall, the results lend credence to concerns expressed by regulatory authorities and exchange officials that stringent disclosure levels could reduce access to foreign capital and foreign investment opportunities.     

Trade and product innovations as sources for productivity increases: an empirical analysis

Increases in total factor productivity (TFP) are commonly associated with technological innovations measured by the stock of R&D. Empirical evidence seems to corroborate this relationship. However, in trading countries like The Netherlands, productivity increases, even in industry, can also be the result of innovations in the way transactions are managed. These innovations reduce transaction costs and exploit the welfare gains from (further) international division of labour. Such innovations are only partly included in R&D data. Consequently there is not much attention for these ‘trade innovations’—as we label them—in policy. In an empirical analysis this paper compares the influence of trade innovations with the influence of the stock of R&D on TFP in The Netherlands. The regression results show that in this country trade innovations are as important for TFP as technological innovations which directly affect the efficiency of production, which we label ‘product innovations’.      

Managerial Perceptions of the Net Benefits of Foreign Listing: Canadian Evidence

This study provides some insights into managerial perceptions of the costs, benefits, and net benefits of foreign listing through a survey of Canadian firms that have listed their securities on the foreign exchanges in the U.S. and U.K. Access to foreign capital markets and increased stock marketability are perceived to be the major benefits. The SEC reporting and compliance requirements are cited as the major costs of foreign listings. Overall, benefits are perceived to outweigh costs although not significandy. Managerial perceptions of positive net benefits are strongly linked to the levels of trading volume in their firm's stock on foreign exchanges. This study is useful for managers contemplating foreign listings. Our findings indicate that the listing decision requires careful scrutiny in terms of potential costs and benefits which may depend on many firm specific factors. Firms conducting most of their business abroad and issuing a greater percentage of equity abroad are likely to have a greater appeal for foreign investors irrespective of their size and industry. While multiple listings on foreign exchanges may not imply higher foreign trading volumes, fewer domestic exchange listings are associated with higher foreign trading volumes.     

Mixture of MLP-experts for trend forecasting of time series: A case study of the Tehran stock exchange

A new method for forecasting the trend of time series, based on mixture of MLP experts, is presented. In this paper, three neural network combining methods and an Adaptive Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) are applied to trend forecasting in the Tehran stock exchange. There are two experiments in this study. In experiment I, the time series data are the Kharg petrochemical company’s daily closing prices on the Tehran stock exchange. In this case study, which considers different schemes for forecasting the trend of the time series, the recognition rates are 75.97%, 77.13% and 81.64% for stacked generalization, modified stacked generalization and ANFIS, respectively. Using the mixture of MLP experts (ME) scheme, the recognition rate is strongly increased to 86.35%. A gain and loss analysis is also used, showing the relative forecasting success of the ME method with and without rejection criteria, compared to a simple buy and hold approach. In experiment II, the time series data are the daily closing prices of 37 companies on the Tehran stock exchange. This experiment is conducted to verify the results of experiment I and to show the efficiency of the ME method compared to stacked generalization, modified stacked generalization and ANFIS.     

Do institutions care about market structure? A case study of listing firms

Trading by institutions on the NSYE and Nasdaq markets has grown dramatically. Yet, while listing effects for firms moving to an exchange have been studied for more than 60 years, evidence on whether listing is beneficial is mixed. This study focuses on listing effects to institutional traders by examining different factors that capture changes in block execution. Results indicate price impacts and liquidity costs decline for various types of block trades and block trade sizes, the average volume of which increases after listing.(JEL G20)     

Detecting speculative bubbles in an IT-intensive stock market

Using a battery of unit root test procedures and cointegration analysis with alternative null hypotheses we find some evidence of speculative bubbles in the Finnish stock market for monthly data on industry portfolio stock prices and returns from the 1990s. When analyzing the time series behavior of stock market prices and returns against the development of certain macroeconomic fundamentals, the bubbles seem to be present especially in the information technology (IT) prices and only during the latter half of the decade. (JEL C22, G12)     

The role of implied volatility in forecasting future realized volatility and jumps in foreign exchange,stock, and bond markets

We study the forecasting of future realized volatility in the foreign exchange, stock, and bond markets from variables in our information set, including implied volatility backed out from option prices. Realized volatility is separated into its continuous and jump components, and the heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model is applied with implied volatility as an additional forecasting variable. A vector HAR (VecHAR) model for the resulting simultaneous system is introduced, controlling for possible endogeneity issues. We find that implied volatility contains incremental information about future volatility in all three markets, relative to past continuous and jump components, and it is an unbiased forecast in the foreign exchange and stock markets. Out-of-sample forecasting experiments confirm that implied volatility is important in forecasting future realized volatility components in all three markets. Perhaps surprisingly, the jump component is, to some extent, predictable, and options appear calibrated to incorporate information about future jumps in all three markets.     

Agency costs in U.S. manufacturing: An empirical measure using X-efficiency

By adapting the concept of X-inefficiency, the deadweight cost associated with agency problems is estimated for U.S. manufacturing industry. X-inefficiency theory postulates that agent’s opportunistic behavior will lead to second-best outcomes in imperfect markets. When the methodology is applied to the 1986/87 fiscal year, thirty industries are identified as X-inefficient. The total deadweight agency cost generated by these industries amounts to some $76 million. On average, in any given industry, agency costs represent two-tenths of one percent of that industry’s annual sales.     

Self-organized criticality in a herd behavior model of financial markets

This paper explains the fat-tail distribution of asset transaction volumes and prices by a model of rational herd behavior of traders. Each trader decides whether to buy an asset by observing private information and other traders’ actions. A trader’s buying action reveals his positive private information and affects the other traders’ beliefs in favor of buying, leading to strategic complementarity. A power-law distribution emerges for the number of buying actions in a static Nash equilibrium. This model provides an economic reason as to why the stock market has to exhibit a criticality in the connectivity of the traders’ actions. I am benefited by comments from the seminar participants at University of Tokyo and the Econophysics Colloquium 2006 at International Christian University, the editors of the special issue, and particularly an anonymous referee.     

The effect of NYSE listing on a firm’s media visibility

The most frequently cited reason by corporate managers for switching their firm’s trading location from Nasdaq to the NYSE is to improve visibility. This study examines whether these perceptions about listing are real or illusory and whether firm size affects media visibility. Based on a large sample of firms that listed on the NYSE compared with a matched sample of firms remaining on Nasdaq, the results show that NYSE listing does not lead to gains in media visibility during the period immediately after listing. Over a longer period, small- and medium-sized firms experience significant gains in media visibility compared with large firms. Additional tests show that increased media coverage is attributable much more to the rapid earnings growth before listing than to listing. Therefore, managers erroneously attribute the visibility gains to NYSE listing.     

Autocorrelation,return horizons,and momentum in stock returns

In this study we examine Lewellen’s (Rev Financ Stud 15:533–563 2002) claim that momentum in stock returns is not due to positive autocorrelation as behavioral models suggest. Using portfolio-specific data, we find the autocovariance component of the momentum profit to be negative, suggesting no return continuations. However, we also find that the autocorrelations calculated from short-term (e.g., monthly) returns are quite different from long-horizon (e.g., annual) autocorrelations. While the first-order autocorrelations of 6– and 12-month returns tend to be negative, the autocorrelations across twelve lags in monthly returns of the industry, size, and B/M portfolios are in general positive. Our results show that these portfolios exhibit return continuations when returns are measured on a monthly basis. Therefore, our finding appears to be consistent with the behavioral models, which suggest positive autocorrelation in stock returns.