Fuzzy Present Value Analysis Model For Evaluating Information System Projects

In this article, the economic evaluation of information system projects using present value is analyzed based on triangular fuzzy numbers. Information system projects usually have numerous uncertainties and several conditions of risk that make their economic evaluation a challenging task. Each year, several information system projects are cancelled before completion as a result of budget overruns at a cost of several billions of dollars to industry. Although engineering economic analysis offers tools and techniques for evaluating risky projects, the tools are not enough to place information system projects on a safe budget/selection track. There is a need for an integrative economic analysis model that will account for the uncertainties in estimating project costs, benefits, and useful lives of uncertain and risky projects. In this study, we propose an approximate method of computing project present value using the concept of fuzzy modeling with special reference to information system projects. This proposed model has the potential of enhancing the project selection process by capturing a better economic picture of the project alternatives. The proposed methodology can also be used for other real-life projects with high degree of uncertainty and risk.     

Risk management, project success, and technological uncertainty

In times of increased competition and globalization, project success becomes even more critical to business performance, and yet many projects still suffer delays, overruns, and even failure. Ironically, however, risk management tools and techniques, which have been developed to improve project success, are used too little, and many still wonder how helpful they are. In this paper we present the results of an empirical study devoted to this question. Based on data collected on over 100 projects performed in Israel in a variety of industries, we examine the extent of usage of some risk management practices, such as risk identification, probabilistic risk analysis, planning for uncertainty and trade-off analysis, the difference in application across different types of projects, and their impact on various project success dimensions. Our findings suggest that risk management practices are still not widely used. Only a limited number of projects in our study have used any kind of risk management practices and many have only used some, but not all the available tools. When used, risk management practices seem to be working, and appear to be related to project success. We also found that risk management practices were more applicable to higher risk projects. The impact of risk management is mainly on better meeting time and budget goals and less on product performance and specification. In this case, we also found some differences according levels of technological uncertainty. Our conclusion is that risk management is still at its infancy and that at this time, more awareness to the application, training, tool development, and research on risk management is needed.     

Autonomous Teams and New Product Development

An autonomous team is an emerging tool for new product development (NPD). With its high degree of autonomy, independence, leadership, dedication, and collocation, the team has more freedom and stronger capabilities to be innovative and entrepreneurial. Several anecdotal cases suggest that autonomous teams are best when applied to highly uncertain, complex, and innovative projects. However, there is no empirical study to test such a notion. Moreover, autonomous teams are not a panacea, and implementing them can be costly and disruptive to their parent organization. When should this powerful, yet costly tool, be pulled out of the new product professional's toolbox? This paper attempts to answer this question. The objective of this study is to explore under which circumstances an autonomous team is the best choice for NPD. Based on contingency and information‐processing theories, autonomous teams are hypothesized to be more effective to address projects with: (1) high technology novelty and (2) radical innovation. To test these hypotheses, the relative effectiveness of four types of team structures: autonomous, functional, lightweight, and heavyweight are compared. The effectiveness measures include development cost, development speed, and overall product success. Vision clarity, resource availability, and team experience are the controlled variables. The empirical results based on the data from 555 NPD projects generally support the research hypotheses. Relative to other team structures, autonomous teams are more effective in addressing projects with high technology novelty or radical innovation. The results also suggest that heavyweight teams perform better than other teams in developing incremental innovation. These results provide some evidence to support contingency and information‐processing theories at the project level. Given the importance of the development of novel technology and radical innovation in establishing new businesses and other strategic initiatives, the findings of this study may not only have some important implications for NPD practices but may also shed some light on other important topics such as disruptive innovation, strategic innovation, new venture, corporate entrepreneurship, and ambidextrous organization.     

Using mean-Gini and stochastic dominance to choose project portfolios with parameter uncertainty

Although a variety of models have been studied for project portfolio selection, many organizations still struggle to choose a potentially diverse range of projects while ensuring the most beneficial results. The use of the mean-Gini framework and stochastic dominance to select portfolios of research and development (R&D) projects has been gaining attention in the literature despite the fact that such approaches do not consider uncertainty regarding the projects’ parameters. This article discusses, with relation to project portfolio selection through a mean-Gini approach and stochastic dominance, the impact of uncertainty on project parameters. In the process, Monte Carlo simulation is considered in evaluating the impact of parametric uncertainty on project selection. The results show that the influence of uncertainty is significant enough to mislead managers. A more robust selection policy using the mean-Gini approach and Monte Carlo simulation is proposed.     

海上油气田区域开发经济评价思路探讨

常规油气田开发的经济评价通常以单个油气田开发建设项目作为评价单元.针对海上油气开发互为依托且高成本、高风险的特征,建议引入区域开发的经济评价思想,按照三类实用可行的开发思路,即“利用闲置生产设施”、“油气田群内联合开发”、“区域内储量滚动开发”进行项目经济评价,从而最终实现区域内每一个油气田的有效开发.文章对三种思路进行了讨论,并提出了实际工作需重点关注的事项.     

The importance of a common project management method in the corporate environment

Like so many other major companies in the world today, Ericsson runs most of its product development operations as projects. The increasing complexity of telecommunication solutions often requires that many technologies are brought together in one turnkey project, such as telephone switching, mobile radio networks, DECT radio Access and others. Competence centres within Ericsson, spread out over many countries need to work together in'cross functional' projects.
While the advantage of the project concept is obvious, carrying out projects in which various Ericsson companies participate, in different countries, can prove to be a very complex undertaking. Many such projects are running simultaneously and often compete for resources and priority with ever increasing time constraints. In order to succeed we need a common methodology for managing projects.
This methodology must provide Ericsson with a shared view on how we allocate scarce (human) resources, the roles that need to be played by all those involved in the project and the supporting line functions, the criteria to be used for decisions to be taken inside the project and in relation to other projects, and many more issues that require a common view. A shared view on project management is also a prerequisite for handling conflicts within an organization in which the project, as a working form, is predominant. Various Ericsson companies and units have achieved different degrees of maturity in their management of projects. This combined experience has produced a methodology called 'PROPS' that Ericsson uses today. The widespread use of PROPS has given Ericsson a common terminology and common perspective of projects. This contributes to shorter lead-time, time to market and time to customer. In this article is explained some of the PROPS features and how PROPS is applied.     

Perceptions of Material Resources in Innovation Projects: What Shapes Them and How Do They Matter?

Studies on the role of material resources for team performance in innovation projects have provided inconclusive results. This paper focuses on team members' perceptions of the provided material resources' adequacy to address this gap. Understanding what drives perceptions of material resource adequacy may not only reconcile conflicting results in the literature, but may also provide much‐needed guidance for project funding, so as to maximize innovation project performance. Further, the analyses in this paper differentiate between two outcome dimensions of innovation project performance, namely, the degree of new product quality and new product novelty, and thus offer a more fine‐grained analysis of the relationship between perceptions of material resource adequacy and innovation project teams' performance. The posited hypotheses are tested using a sample consisting of survey data from 121 innovation projects in the electronics industry. To avoid common source bias, data from different respondent groups, that is, team leaders, team members, and team external managers of the examined innovation projects, were used. The results of the regression analyses identify team potency and workload as socio‐cognitive drivers of innovation project teams' perceptions of material resource adequacy. Moreover, it is found that perceived material resource adequacy relates positively to new product quality, while it relates negatively to new product novelty. This paper thus provides an important step toward disentangling the ambiguity surrounding the relationship between material resource adequacy and innovation project teams' performance, showing that a key finding of cognitive psychology seems to hold also on the team level of inquiry: the significant influence of socio‐cognitive factors on perceptions. This finding paves the way for putting more attention in research on innovation and project management on cognitive aspects, in particular considering mechanisms behind the formation of team perceptions. Further, the results provide evidence for differential effects of perceived material resource adequacy on innovation project performance, depending on the indicators used for measuring the outcomes of an innovation project. This contributes necessary detail to studying the relationship between material resource adequacy and innovation project performance, which so far has produced inconclusive results, suggesting that these contradictions might result to a large degree from different operationalizations of innovation project performance. On a practical level, the findings of this paper suggest that material resource adequacy seems not to be a catch‐all variable, influencing innovation project outcomes in a uniform way. It appears to be a useful lever for influencing team outcomes depending on the desired result, which may be manipulated by shaping team variables that exert a systematic influence on perceptions of material resource adequacy.     

Building Dynamic Capabilities in New Product Development through Intertemporal Integration

Although successful development of a given product may help explain the current success of a firm, creating longer‐term competitive advantage demands significantly more attention to developing and nurturing dynamic integration capabilities. These capabilities propel product development activities in ways that build on and develop technological and marketing capabilities for future product development efforts and create platforms for future product development. In this article, we develop a conceptual model of a dynamic integration process in product development, which we call intertemporal integration (ITI). In its most general form ITI is defined as the process of collecting, interpreting, and internalizing technological and marketing capabilities from past new product development projects and incorporating that knowledge in a systematic and purposeful manner into the development of future new products. Research propositions outlining the relationship of ITI to performance are presented. We provide specific examples of managerial mechanisms to be used in implementing ITI. We conclude with implications for research and practice. Effective management of ITI can increase new product development success and long‐term competitive advantage. This implies that management needs to engage in activities that gather and transform information and knowledge from prior development projects so that it can be used in future development projects. Project audits, design databases in computer‐aided design (CAD) systems, engineering notebooks, collections of test and experimental results, market research and test market results, project management databases, and other activities will all be important in the acquisition of knowledge from prior new product development (NPD) projects. Managers also should initiate the creation and maintenance of databases of technical and marketing information from prior projects, job performance reports, seminars and workshops related to technological issues and advances, and publication of technical journals to assist in the process of knowledge acquisition. Similarly, techniques such as assigning project managers from earlier development projects, reusing key components and technologies, and developing a company‐wide methodology for managing projects can be used to boost the application and use of knowledge.     

Evolving schemes of interpretation: investigating the dual role of architectures in new product development

Should product architectures be considered inputs to – or outputs from – new product development (NPD)? Whereas the mirroring hypothesis suggests the former, NPD stage models suggests the latter. Elaborating on these conflicting propositions, this paper analyses the relationships between product architectures and development processes in NPD projects. The analysis demonstrates how project managers use product architectures to interpret their tasks and devise appropriate responses to perceived challenges. Thus, architectures provide useful linkages between knowledge development and organisational change in R&D organisations.     

Refining the search for project success factors: a multivariate, typological approach

Although the causes for project success and failure have been the subject of many studies, no conclusive evidence or common agreement has been achieved so far. One criticism involves the universalistic approach used often in project management studies, according to which all projects are assumed to be similar. A second problem is the issue of subjectiveness, and sometimes weakly defined success measures; yet another concern is the limited number of managerial variables examined by previous research. In the present study we use a project-specific typological approach, a multidimensional criteria for assessing project success, and a multivariate statistical analysis method. According to our typology projects were classified according to their technological uncertainty at project initiation and their system scope which is their location on a hierarchical ladder of systems and subsystems. For each of the 127 projects in our study that were executed in Israel, we recorded 360 managerial variables and 13 success measures. The use of a very detailed data and multivariate methods such as canonical correlation and eigenvector analysis enables us to account for all the interactions between managerial and success variables and to address a handful of perspectives, often left unanalyzed by previous research. Assessing the variants of managerial variables and their impact on project success for various types of projects, serves also a step toward the establishment of a typological theory of projects. Although some success factors are common to all projects, our study identified project-specific lists of factors, indicating for example, that high-uncertainty projects must be managed differently than low-uncertainty projects, and high-scope projects differently than low-scope projects.     

Information styles of marketing and R&D personnel during technological product innovation projects

Abstract The research question in the present article can be phrased in the following way: what are the elements which influence the perception of the utility of information received from another function? A field study research has been conducted in 40 Belgian companies. In each company, we have studied two on-going innovation projects (one planning project, one development project). Crossfunctional communication behaviours at the R&D/marketing interface have been measured by means of mailed structured questionnaires. Three-hundred and eighty-six questionnaires have been returned. The data analyses show that there are four underlying information dimensions, i.e. the perceived relevance, the perceived comprehensibility, the perceived novelty and the perceived credibility of information. We also discuss some contingency variables (function of the message receiver, stage in the innovation process) that might moderate the impact of these dimensions. It will be shown that the interaction between source and receiver has a significant impact on the perceived credibility, the perceived comprehensibility and the perceived novelty of the received information.     

Management of development projects: how to meet corporate business goals?

Two contradictory elements affect development projects in the modern era. New advanced development projects require huge resources and long schedules. On the other hand, the resources available for development projects are decreasing, and intensive competition between companies results in increased required performance and new products which must be developed with short schedules. Development projects have a significant effect on a company's business goals, and therefore attract the attention of corporate managers. A significant part of managers' time is devoted to the control of development projects. Support tools are therefore developed and used to assist managers in controlling their projects. This paper describes a control tool to help managers make decisions on development projects. The tool described is based on Microsoft's 'Project' software package, and was developed in-house. The package performs real-time calculations and simultaneously presents several control parameters. These parameters provide a comprehensive picture of project status. The major benefits of the control tools described are: (1) The 'Project' package provides the ability to work with small and combined work packages. It allows attention to be focused on small programs as well as on entire programs. (2) It complies fully with modern decentralised computer systems consisting of a central computer, local computerised networks, parallel PCs and work stations. It provides an interactive quick response ability to follow changes in project status, which result from design changes or progress updates. The control system was implemented by RAFAEL's Missiles Division two years ago, and impressive results in terms of project efficiency were achieved. These achievements play a major role in meeting the Division's business goals. The control tools described are general and can fit a large variety of projects and companies.     

A simple model approach to multi-project monitoring

The commonly recommended network approach to project monitoring and scheduling can make very useful, detailed contributions to individual projects. However, it has not yet been adequately developed to deal with a large number of projects, particularly where considerable uncertainties are involved. To try to overcome this weakness an attempt has been made to use a project model that is so simple that it can easily be handled in large numbers. Although details of individual projects are lost, considerable benefit can be obtained from analyses of the resulting, collective data. This approach has been used successfully for some time to present project programmes and progress with the work in an engineering development laboratory and is currently being extended to assist with multi-project scheduling.     

Team Design Thinking,Product Innovativeness,and the Moderating Role of Problem Unfamiliarity

Team design thinking in new product development (NPD) refers to a set of design-oriented principles that can be embedded in the everyday routines of NPD teams. We theorize that team design thinking enables NPD teams to develop more innovative products––products that are useful and novel––by reducing the routine and cognition-based inertia that constrains the team’s innovativeness. Through a study of 247 NPD projects, we investigate the relationships between team design thinking, product utility, and product novelty. Further, we also explore whether the team’s unfamiliarity with product contexts influences these relationships. Findings show that team design thinking is positively associated with useful products in both familiar and unfamiliar contexts, but that team design thinking is associated with product novelty only in familiar contexts. Findings also suggest that team design thinking can be framed as a dynamic capability that addresses routine and cognition-based inertia by expanding the organization’s knowledge resource base, particularly in familiar contexts. A key implication of this research is that team design thinking will influence product utility in a variety of situations, but its influence on product novelty will be evident primarily in familiar contexts.     

Analyzing the successful development of a high‐novelty innovation project under a time‐pressured schedule

Research has identified numerous determinants leading to the success of new product development (NPD) projects. However, which particular determinants carry more importance when developing high‐novelty projects under tight time constraints have yet to be clarified. We study the development of ECJ‐400 of Eclipse Aircraft Company, a highly innovative new jet airplane that was designed and built in a very aggressive 229‐day timetable. Through an in‐depth case analysis using interviews with members of the four companies involved in the design, manufacturing, and flight testing of the airplane, we enquire about the underlying factors that led to the successful creation of this product. Propositions were formulated and then depicted respectively through the development of a casual network diagram. Our study contributes to the NPD speed literature by highlighting the particular interrelationships between determinants that are influential toward highly novel time‐pressured NPD projects.     

Upper management control of new product development projects and project performance

While some degree of freedom and flexibility is an essential ingredient to productive cross‐functional NPD teams, upper‐managers are faced with the challenge of instituting effective control mechanisms which head projects in the right strategic direction, monitor progress toward organizational and project goals, and allow for adjustments in the project if necessary. But too much or the wrong type of control may constrain the team's creativity, impede their progress, and injure their ultimate performance. Therefore, this study examines formal and interactive control mechanisms available to upper‐managers in controlling new product development (NPD) projects, and the relationship between these mechanisms and NPD project performance. Formal output and process controls are examined which consist of the setting and monitoring of outcomes, such as goals, schedule and budgets, and of processes and procedures, respectively. This study also looks at how the effectiveness of these control mechanisms may be contingent upon the degree of innovativeness in the project and the degree to which the project is part of a broad product program. In addition, the use of formal rewards for achieving team performance as opposed to rewards for individual achievement is investigated. Lastly, interactive controls are examined which consist of upper‐managers interacting directly with project members in the development of strategy and operational goals and procedures prior to the start of the project, and upper‐managers intervening in project decision‐making. Questionnaire data are collected on 95 projects across a variety of industries. The findings suggest that while NPD projects teams need some level of strategic direction concerning the objectives to be accomplished and the procedures to be followed, upper‐level managers can exert too much control. In particular, the findings showed a negative association between the use of upper manager‐imposed process controls and project performance. The findings also indicated that the degree to which upper‐managers intervened in project‐level decisions during the project was negatively related to project performance. However, the results showed support for the notion that early and interactive decision‐making on control mechanisms is important for effective projects. In particular, early team member and upper‐management involvement in the setting of operational controls, such as goals and procedures for monitoring and evaluating the project, was positively associated with project performance. This study provides additional insight into our understanding of upper‐management support in new product development. The study suggests that upper‐managers can over control with the wrong type of controls, and suggests effective ways of implementing participative and interactive control mechanisms.     

Managing the Sources of Uncertainty: Matching Process and Context in Software Development

There is increasing interest in the literature about the notion of a contingent approach to product development process design. This interest stems from the realization that different types of projects carried out in different environments are likely to require quite different development processes if they are to be successful. Stated more formally, a contingent view implies that the performance impact of different development practices is likely to be mediated by the context in which those practices operate. This article provides evidence to support such a view. Our work examines whether projects in which the development process matches the context achieve superior performance. We focus on two sources of uncertainty that generate challenges for project teams: platform uncertainty, reflecting the uncertainty generated by the amount of new design work that must be undertaken in a project; and market uncertainty, reflecting the uncertainty faced in determining customer requirements for the product under development. We develop hypotheses for how these sources of uncertainty are likely to influence the relationships between a number of specific development practices and performance. We then test these hypotheses using data from a sample of 29 Internet software development projects. Our results provide evidence to support a contingent view of development process design. We show that in projects facing greater uncertainty, investments in architectural design, early technical feedback, and early market feedback have a stronger association with performance. The latter relationships are influenced by the specific sources from which this uncertainty stems: platform uncertainty mediating the impact of early technical feedback and market uncertainty mediating the impact of early market feedback. Our results also indicate that while greater uncertainty is associated with making later changes to a product's design, this practice is not associated with performance. Our findings suggest that managers carefully must evaluate both the levels and sources of uncertainty facing a project before designing the most appropriate process for its execution. In particular, they should explore the use of specific development practices based upon their usefulness in resolving the specific types of uncertainty faced. Importantly, these decisions must be made at the start of a project, with purposeful investments to create a process that best matches the context. Reacting to uncertainty ex‐post, without such investments in place, is unlikely to prove a successful strategy.     

Managing uncertain,complex product development in high‐tech firms: in search of controlled flexibility

This paper investigates ways of managing complexity and uncertainty in R&D simultaneously. Previous research on the subject indicates that these dimensions require different approaches, but these studies tend to provide suggestions either on managing complexity in stable industries or on handling uncertainty in less complex projects. In this paper, the two dimensions are studied simultaneously in three commercial product development projects at a firm that may be viewed as an extreme case of complexity and with multiple dimensions of uncertainty. The paper illustrates that a critical issue in this kind of high‐tech development is the search for and development of approaches that integrate and balance needs for formal organizational control with high levels of project flexibility. Four key elements of such integrated approaches are identified: hybrid formal systems, structured interaction in public arenas, transparent visual communication tools, and a system of participative reflection.     

Experience in the use of research planning diagrams in a synthetic fibres R & D unit

Abstract. This paper describes the introduction and use of the Research Planning Diagram (RPD) notation in ICI Fibres Limited. Experimenting with the approach has led to the conclusion that it is very useful for planning and controlling development projects but we do not think it serves a real purpose when applied to basic research with a high level of technical content. Support is provided for the view that the RPD notation should be used to give prominence to decisions and that it can be employed as a communications link between different functions in a business area responsible for the successful completion of a project. The paper explains how the RPD notation is used on a routine basis in the management of development projects and describes the benefits that have been derived from its implementation. An illustration is included to show how the notation has been modified to permit criteria and data, relevant to the analysis of key decisions, to be added to the diagram.     

Models in action: how management models are interpreted in new product development

This paper studies the use of product development management models. Through an interpretive research approach based on in-depth interviews with 22 middle managers in two product development organizations, five ways of conceiving projects, project management and the role of models are identified – administrative, organizing, sense giving, team building and engineering – all representing different perspectives on – and ways of using models. The findings question essentialist views of models, common in the literature, as either normative guides for action or symbolic tools decoupled from action. Instead, the study indicates a large variety in the use of models mediated by the user's conception of the situation and the model. The study highlights the communicative role of models as boundary objects, enabling coordination of and communication about different conceptions of the development task. Rather than contributing to behavioral standardization (an implicit assumption that underlies most formal models), this study suggests that models support cognitive standardization by providing a common set of concepts and a framework that may be drawn upon in making sense of complex product development projects.