从逻辑与历史相统一中把握“四史”学习——论次序感、趋势感与共时感

“四史”是指导我国未来实践的理论宝库，学习“四史”有重要意义。要学好“四史”，就必须有学习“四史”的正确态度。逻辑与历史相统一作为马克思研究政治经济学时所使用的科学方法论，并不是简单的逻辑与历史相一致，而是建立在次序感、趋势感和共时感基础之上的逻辑感与历史感的三重统一。通过深入分析以三重历史感为基础的逻辑与历史相统一，可以帮助大家树立对待历史的正确态度，更有效地学习“四史”，并汲取其中的理论营养。     

关于历史传统发展的理性反思

人的生命本质的存在与展开表现为人类不断发展和进步的历程 ;在现实性上就是历史传统生成、扬弃的过程。人区别于其他一切物的根本在于人是具有“自然”、“超自然”两重生命的存在。人的超自然生命使人具有“自由自觉”的类意识 ,从而具有自我更新、自我丰富、自我发展的本性 ,这种不断的更新、丰富、发展的积淀形成历史传统。人们总在过去事物中改变过去事物 ,在现在生活中投摄来未来理想。所以 ,人的发展就是人的历史传统的发展     

新书速递

下一个倒下的会不会是华为？一部华为成长史乃一部危机管理史。本书系统阐述了华为的企业文化哲学和任正非的经营哲学——“以客户为中心”、“以奋斗者为本”、“开放”等九大要点正是华为企业经营的神秘力量，也是华为行为处事的内部逻辑。作者用最系统的逻辑与资料为我们解析了华为的过去、现在与未来!     

泰顺“新五年”思考

“十二五”时期是泰顺深入实践科学发展观、全面落实党的“十七大”提出的新的发展要求的五年，也是积极应对国内外发展环境重大变化、全面建设小康社会的关键时期。在新的历史条件下，以战略眼光审视泰顺的过去、现在和将来，开展重大问题的前瞻性研究，理清泰顺“十二五”发展的基本思路，对于科学编制“十二五”规划，推动经济社会持续健康发展具有十分重要的意义。     

"十一五"规划编剧中应关注的几个问题

“十一五”时期，是浙江全面建设小康社会和加快推进现代化进程的承前启后、继往开来的关键时期。“十一五”规划，是贯彻落实科学发展观的第一个五年规划。在新的历史条件下，以战略的眼光审视浙江的过去、现在和未来，开展对重大问题的前瞻性研究，提出经济社会发展的基本思路，对于正确制订“十一五”规划，无疑具有十分重要的意义和作用。     

杭州历史文化名城现代化城市的建设和发展探讨

杭州是国务院首批颁布的国家级历史化名城和七大古都之一。千年古城宝贵的历史资源和深厚的化积淀，是杭州过去、现在和未来社会进步的源泉，也是现代化城市建设和发展的基础。     

“中国道路”的接续探索与时代价值

“中国道路”的发展“奇迹”引起了国内外专家学者热议，有赞誉，有指责；有肯定，也有否定，呈现出多种思考与议论。针对这些热议，需要坚持“历史与逻辑”相统一的辩证唯物主义立场来认识“中国道路”演化的系统性和必然性，进而领会“中国道路”的时代价值。“中国道路”创新和丰富了世界现代化发展模式。将“中国道路”的“历史起点和逻辑起点”放在宏观时空环境中来观察分析，以期深刻揭示选择走“中国道路”的必然性；同时秉持历史唯物主义基本立场和观点，坚决批判历史虚无主义，树立“道路自信”。     

历史因素在居住区景观设计中的应用

历史因素代表着一个地区的文脉、传统，决定着这个地区的现在，预示着这个地区的未来。本文从探讨历史因素在居住区景观设计中的应用的意义开始，分析了历史因素、居住区、景观设计和应用的概念，通过对案例的分析，重点研究了历史因素在居住区景观设计中应用的三种方法：继承、发展和创新。     

人类命运共同体思想生成的历史逻辑探析

构建人类命运共同体是习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想中一项极富理论深度和战略高度的伟大构想，亦是新时代中国特色大国外交的旗帜和标杆。要想深刻理解“人类命运共同体”思想的内涵，必须溯其根脉，从历史逻辑上进行系统梳理：在中国历史与世界历史的“二史”有机统一中把握历史逻辑，在优秀文化与先进成果的“双优”根脉继承中剖析历史逻辑，在伟大复兴与百年未有的“两局”交织情境中探究历史逻辑。     

新书介绍

2008年过去了。这一年我们急于创造辉煌，急于应对挑战，急于战胜灾难，急于完成任务，每个人、每个机构都可以写出自己长长的“后忘书”。这一年又是改革开放30周年，我们对过去投入了太多的热情，但由于历史主体的缄默，我们对峥嵘岁月的回忆仅仅变成了一段怀旧的旅程。这一年我们面对着过去、面对着当下、背对着未来，就像是在倒着走进新的一年。现在我们又开始忙着对抗危机、刺激经济，充满了不安与躁动。     

混合型组织:概念与类别再探究

本文构建了"理论视角—定义逻辑"的混合型组织概念认知范式,基于理论视角将混合型组织本质的已有认知归纳为治理方式观、建构形式观和组织形态观,认为它们可以收敛于组织形态观;基于定义逻辑将混合型组织概念的已有界定方式归结为以"元素混合"为核心和逻辑起点的定义方法、以"特征介于"为核心和逻辑起点的定义方法,并结合二者形成基于元素混合的特征刻画法。在此基础上提出了具有包容性与解释张力的混合型组织元定义和反映混合型组织运行完整"画像"的操作性定义,以期引导人们走出混合型组织的"概念丛林"。本文对混合型组织既有的多种分类方法进行了批判性审视,建立了"元素特征组合—混合度"的混合型组织类别识别与判定框架,并聚焦于组织社会学领域的混合型组织类型,将组织的商业性与社会性两个维度、混合度阈值与类别结合起来,考虑最低混合强度要求,廓清了不同类别混合型组织所处的区域边界。     

Words and Numbers: Financialization and Accounting Standard Setting in the United Kingdom

How is it possible that British policymakers resisted market‐based measurement for decades while financial economic concepts of decision making and valuation still gained widespread acceptance as a justification for accounting standard setting? This study introduces the concept of “technologies of financialization” to develop the theorizing of the rise of finance in the domain of accounting. Based on a genealogical history of narrative reporting in the United Kingdom, it demonstrates how references to qualitative reporting techniques helped to address recurring crises of measurement from 1969 to 1993, and ultimately contributed to the practical acceptance of market‐based measurement in the UK standard‐setting context. The data are interpreted through a cultural economy framework that directs attention to the power of referring to financial reporting as a combination of words and numbers in sustaining its theoretical redefinition “from below”—that is, by relating it to the experience of practicing accountants rather than accounting theory. As a technology of financialization, narrative reporting made financial economic ideals of market‐based measurement, decision usefulness, and future orientation appear operable in a real‐life reporting context. Whenever measurement reached its practical limits, narratives were relied on to explain the impact of price‐level changes, frame economic decisions, and relate unobservable future cash flows to present‐day strategies and resources. The insight into how narrative reporting practices have been laced into the reasoning of capital markets for over 40 years is timely because it illustrates that narratives can also play a more encompassing role and drive the turn toward wider corporate accountability on social and environmental impacts while hard measurements in this area are still being figured out.     

The Relation between Market Values,Earnings Forecasts,and Reported Earnings*

Recently, much of the research into the relation between market values and accounting numbers has used, or at least made reference to, the residual income model (RIM). Two basic types of empirical research have developed. The “historical” type explores the relation between market values and reported accounting numbers, often using the linear dynamics in Ohlson 1995 and Feltham and Ohlson 1995 and 1996. The “forecast” type explores the relation between market value and the present value of the book value of equity, a truncated sequence of residual income forecasts, and an estimate of the terminal value at the truncation date. The analysis in this paper integrates these two approaches. We expand the Feltham and Ohlson 1996 model by including one‐ and two‐period‐ahead residual income forecasts to infer “other” information regarding future revenues from past investments and future growth opportunities. This approach results in a model in which the difference between market value and book value of equity is a function of current residual income, one‐ and two‐period‐ahead residual income, current capital investment, and start‐of‐period operating assets. The existence of both persistence in revenues from current and prior investments and growth in future positive net present value investment opportunities leads us to hypothesize a negative coefficient on the one‐period‐ahead residual income forecast and a positive coefficient on the two‐period‐ahead residual income forecast. Our empirical results strongly support our hypotheses with respect to the forecast coefficients.     

“中”:一个中国政治与国际政治的联合分析

“中”的思想遍布中国悠久的传统文化,它根源于中国的自然国情,演变与丰富于中国历史发展的长期性和复杂性。对于如何定义“中”,作者在提出其基本内涵之后,从中原、中庸、中道以及“中间主义”等维度对“中”进行延伸理解,以实现较为全面和深入的概括。总结来看,“中”体现了中心、平衡、道德、全面、稳定等状态。对于“中”的表现,可以从中国地缘政治、外交及内政等历史与现实、国内与国际相联通的视角来综合把握,尤其需要对中国外交的“中”进行系统分析。同时,作者把“中”与西方的“制衡”一词进行比较,进一步体现了“中”的独特价值。如何理性看待“中”在中国内政外交中的优势和难题,其实就是如何摆正“中”的位置、逐渐走到“中”的位置进而发挥“中”的最大价值。今后,中国发展将继续在“中”的道路上前进,即通过不断改革来释放内部压力与促进更好的开放,进而保障中国特色社会主义建设“稳中有进”。中国将在不断吸收外国的先进经验和克服自身不足的道路上创造人类发展的更大辉煌。     

“一带一路”海外支点的构建与港区城建设模式的拓展

从港区城建设模式的系统范式和理论创新论证了多式联运港口支点建设的可行逻辑与协同联动可持续的发展思想,从历史实践中归纳了港区城建设模式的政府推动、企业主导、空间递进、协同联动和发展可持续的基本特征。全球支点空间格局、支点现实基础、雁型模式组团出海和建设运营模式是“一带一路”海外支点构建的关键要点。政府要鼓励和引导以全产业链为轴线的抱团出海协同形态的形成,加强港区城系统协同联动。“一带一路”海外支点的构建将联通全球区域性大市场,并主导包容性新型全球化发展。     

The Effect of Information on Uncertainty and the Cost of Capital

It is widely held that better financial reporting makes investors more confident in their predictions of future cash flows and reduces their required risk premia. The logic is that more information leads necessarily to more certainty, and hence lower subjective estimates of firm “beta” or covariance with other firms. This is misleading on both counts. Bayesian logic shows that the best available information can often leave decision makers less certain about future events. And for those cases where information indeed brings great certainty, conventional mean‐variance asset‐pricing models imply that more certain estimates of future cash payoffs can sometimes bring a higher cost of capital. This occurs when new or better information leads to sufficiently reduced expected firm payoffs. To properly understand the effect of signal quality on the cost of capital, it is essential to think of what that information says, rather than considering merely its “precision,” or how strongly it says what it says.     

坚定中国特色社会主义道路自信、理论自信、制度自信

中国特色社会主义是党和人民把马克思主义基本原理同中国实际相结合,在九十多年的艰辛奋斗、探索实践中创造、积累的根本成就,坚定中国特色社会主义道路自信、理论自信、制度自信,让人们看到了一个在长期社会主义革命和建设中锤炼得愈加成熟的马克思主义执政党的最强底气。“三个自信”源于中国特色社会主义是历史选择,基于中国特色社会主义的伟大成。坚定“三个自信”是执政党实现伟大目标的根本要求,是人民创造美好未来生活的现实保证。     

人性文化假设与转型期知识型企业人力资源管理模式

人性假设是某种文化对人本性的基本价值判断。不同文化从截然相反的人性假设出发形成了各具特色的企业人力资源管理模式。以“性善论”为基础的日本“温馨人情模式”和以“性恶论”为基础的美国“严格制度模式”都颇有启发性。根据传统文化对知识员工的熏陶和市场经济对其的影响,中国转型期知识型企业应以“混沌论”人性假设为基础建立一种“混沌管理模式”,具体表现为人力资源管理人性化、市场化和制度化。     

Between micro and macro — what economic history can learn from modern economics

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to discuss the role of economic history to modern economic theory. Taking my point of departure from the division that still haunts economic history — between micro and macro approaches — the paper argues that economic theory today is significantly different from what it was only twenty or thirty years ago. Hence, for example, the division between micro and macro has been upset in modern economics. Also the development of institutional economics, the use of concepts like “bounded rationality” or “path dependence” makes it necessary for economic historians to learn from and confront modern economic theorizing. Many economic historians criticise a version of (neo-classical) economics) that belongs rather to the past than to the present.