HOW REVOLUTIONARY IS THE “NERICA REVOLUTION”? EVIDENCE FROM UGANDA

A new high‐yielding upland rice variety known as New Rice for Africa (NERICA) has been widely recognized as a promising technology for addressing the food shortage in sub‐Saharan Africa. However, there has been no on‐farm yield data to support this optimism. The present study attempts to assess the actual and potential yield of NERICA in Uganda where it has been introduced recently. We found that NERICA's yield is higher (2.5 tons) for farmers who had rice‐growing experience than those who had no previous experience (1.7 tons). These findings strongly indicate that strengthening training, extension, and other supporting systems is the key to the success of the “NERICA revolution” in this country.     

WHY IS THE TAKE-UP OF MICROINSURANCE SO LOW? EVIDENCE FROM A HEALTH INSURANCE SCHEME IN INDIA

Insurance for the poor, called microinsurance, has recently drawn the attention of practitioners in developing countries. There are common problems among the various schemes: (1) low take-up rates, (2) high claim rates, and (3) low renewal rates. In the present paper, we investigate take-up decisions using household data collected in Karnataka, India, focusing on prospect theory, hyperbolic preference, and adverse selection. Prospect theory presumes that people behave in a risk-averse way when evaluating gains but in a risk-loving way when evaluating losses. Because insurance covers losses, the risk-loving attitude toward losses might explain the low take-up rates, and we find weak empirical support for this. Households with hyperbolic preference were more likely to purchase insurance, consistent with our theoretical prediction of demand for commitment. We also find some evidence on the existence of adverse selection: households with a higher ratio of sick members were more likely to purchase insurance.     

HOW LARGE IS THE PRIVATE SECTOR IN AFRICA? EVIDENCE FROM NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND LABOUR MARKETS

In recent years, the private sector has been recognised as a key engine of Africa's economic development. Yet, very little is known about its size and characteristics. We present novel estimates for 50 African countries and show that the private sector accounts for about two thirds of total investments, four fifths of total consumption and three fourths of total credit. Countries with small private sectors include a sample of oil exporters and some of the poorest countries in the continent. Surprisingly, the size of the private sector does not appear to be significantly correlated with growth performance. Labour market data reinforce the idea of a large private sector, which provides about 90% of total employment opportunities. However, most of this labour is informal and characterised by low productivity: permanent wage jobs in the private sector account on average for only 10% of total employment. South Africa is the notable exception, with formal wage employment in the private sector representing 46% of total employment. Finally, we find evidence of negative private sector earning premiums (?13% on the average), suggesting that market distortions abound. These are likely to prevent the efficient allocation of human resources and to reduce the overall productivity of the African economies.     

IS THERE EVIDENCE OF A WAGE PENALTY TO FEMALE PART‐TIME EMPLOYMENT IN SOUTH AFRICA?

In this paper, we investigate female part‐time employment in South Africa. Using household survey data for South Africa from 1995 to 2004, we show that women are over‐represented in part‐time employment, and that the growth in part‐time work has been an important feature of the feminisation of the labour force. In contrast to many studies of part‐time work in other countries, however, we find evidence of a significant wage premium to female part‐time employment. The premium is also robust to fixed effects estimations using Labour Force Survey panel data from 2001 to 2004, where controlling for unobservable differences increases its size. The premium persists with different hourly thresholds defining part‐time employment and when we account for possible reporting errors in hours worked.     

ON THE PATH TO ECONOMIC GROWTH,DO REMITTANCES HELP? EVIDENCE FROM PANEL VARs

Despite the emergence of remittances studies, knowledge about their effect on economic development is still ambiguous. This paper investigates the impact of remittances at macroeconomic level in developing countries controlling for endogeneity problems with the use of panel vector autoregression (panel VAR). The findings suggest that remittances have a positive, albeit small, impact on economic growth even without considering the role of institutions. When institutions are included, the pattern of response remains unaltered. A distinction between low versus high remittances participation in economic activity evidences that, although the impact of remittances on growth is similar, appreciation of the exchange rate occurs in economies with high remittances participation. Finally, a distinction by geographical region reveals that Eastern European economies receive the greatest benefit from these flows, followed by the Americas and Asia; however, African economic growth does not appear to have a statistically significant impact.     

PROSPECTS FOR ‘CLOSING THE GAP’ IN SOCIOECONOMIC OUTCOMES FOR INDIGENOUS AUSTRALIANS?

Practical reconciliation' and more recently 'closing the gap' have been put forward as frameworks on which to base and evaluate policies to address Indigenous disadvantage. This paper analyses national-level census-based data to examine trends in Indigenous wellbeing since 1971. There has been steady improvement in most socioeconomic outcomes in the last 35 years; a finding at odds with the current discourse of failure. Evidence of convergence between Indigenous and non-Indigenous outcomes, however, is not consistent. For some outcomes, relatively rapid convergence is predicted (within 25 years), but for the majority of outcomes, convergence is unlikely to occur within a generation, if at all.     

IS THERE AN ASYMMETRIC BEHAVIOUR IN AFRICAN INFLATION? A NON‐LINEAR APPROACH

In this paper we test the inflation persistence hypothesis as well as model the long‐run behaviour of inflation rates in a pool of African countries using a non‐linear framework. In order to do so, we rely on unit root tests applied to non‐linear models and fractional integration. The results show that the hypothesis of inflation persistence does not hold empirically for most of the countries. In addition, the estimated models (logistic smooth transition autoregressions) are stable in the sense that the variable tends to remain in the regime (low inflation or high inflation) once reached, and changes between regimes are only achieved after a shock. The results also indicate that the effects of the shocks on inflation tend to die out; exogenous factors, i.e. supply shocks and inertia may be causing this outcome, as they play a substantial role in the determination of the inflation rates for our selected African countries.     

WAS THERE A GUARANTEE EFFECT FOR THE OTTOMAN LOANS IN THE NINETEENTH CENTURY?

This study analyses the effect of formal guarantees of the British government on the performance of Turkish bonds issued in the second half of the nineteenth century. We compare the yields and prices of 11 bonds issued by the Ottoman government with different guarantees attached to each bond. Our findings indicate that the formal guarantee of the British government was significant in determining the prices and yields of Ottoman bonds. Even though the British guarantee had no effect on Ottoman institutions, practices, and fiscal fundamentals, the yields on the guaranteed loan did not move together with other Ottoman loans.     

THE ROLE OF THE HIGH COURT IN FEDERAL ARBITRATION DURING THE GREAT DEPRESSION: PRESERVING A FUTURE FOR ‘REASON AND MORAL SUASION’?

Between 1929 and 1933 the Australian federal system of conciliation and arbitration came under economic and political strain. This article reveals that arbitration proved to be an adaptable industrial relations framework for dealing with economic depression. While the monetary entitlements of workers were reduced, the legal instrumentality that conferred the wage cuts, the Arbitration Court, itself defied abolition and evolved to be a protective body. There was a subtle and previously unremarked interaction in the regulatory functions of the High Court, the Arbitration Court, and the Commonwealth Parliament characterised by the purposeful abstention of the High Court and Scullin Government and the activism of the Arbitration Court.     

CAN A RULE‐BASED MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORK WORK IN A DEVELOPING COUNTRY? THE CASE OF YEMEN

Monetary policy in Yemen is largely rudimentary and ad hoc in nature. The Central Bank of Yemen's (CBY) approach has been based on discretionary targeting of broad money without any clear target to anchor inflation expectations. This paper argues in favor of a new formal monetary policy framework for Yemen emphasizing a proactive and rule‐based approach with a greater direct focus on price stability in the context of a flexible management of the exchange rate. Although, as in many developing countries, institutional capacity is a concern, adopting a more formal framework could impel the kind of changes that are required to strengthen the ability of the CBY in achieving low and stable rates of inflation over the medium term.     

IS EAST ASIA FIT FOR AN OPTIMUM CURRENCY AREA? AN ASSESSMENT OF THE ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY OF A HIGHER DEGREE OF MONETARY COOPERATION IN EAST ASIA

This paper attempts to make a contribution to the recent search for a suitable assessment of the economic feasibility of a higher degree of monetary cooperation in East Asia. By using a structural vector autoregression approach as well as a generalized purchasing power parity approach, we find that a larger group of appropriately selected East Asian economies does satisfy the macroeconomic conditions for forming an Optimum Currency Area (OCA). The East Asian group consists of four ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand) and four Northeast Asian economies (Hong Kong SAR, Japan, Republic of Korea, and Taiwan). This finding presents a striking contrast to the existing research results whose policy recommendation has generally been that countries in East Asia should start with a smaller subgroup currency area. It is time that many East Asian economies as a region made a serious effort to pursue a higher degree of monetary cooperation among themselves for forming an OCA.     

EXPLORING THE IMPACT OF FOREIGN AID ON CORRUPTION: HAS THE “ANTI‐CORRUPTION MOVEMENT” BEEN EFFECTIVE?

Though many studies have referred to an “anti‐corruption movement” beginning in the 1990s by major international organizations, none has empirically tested its effectiveness on corruption. The data show that from 1997 onward, the impact of multilateral aid is strongly and robustly associated with lower corruption levels, while bilateral aid is shown to be an insignificant determinant. An increase in any official development assistance (ODA) pre‐1997 is associated with higher levels of corruption or has no impact at all. Using panel data from 1986 to 2006, this study reveals a more nuanced relationship between ODA and corruption than previous studies and demonstrates that when disaggregating the time periods, there are sensitive temporal effects of ODA's effect on corruption overlooked by earlier studies, and provides initial evidence of the effectiveness of the international organization anti‐corruption movement in the developing world.     

WHEN DO VERTICAL RESTRAINTS HARM COMPETITION? THE ECONOMICS‐BASED APPROACH AND ITS APPLICATION IN THE BATSA CASE

An “effects‐based” or “economics‐based” approach to competition policy requires a theory of harm that causally links a business practice and its allegedly anti‐competitive effects and also weighs anti competitive effects against the pro‐competitive effects of the practice. This implies a shift away from per se prohibitions of certain practices towards case‐by‐case analysis – a move that has been hotly debated, especially in Europe. Using a case study of the recently concluded British American Tobacco case, we study the core features of an effects‐based approach to vertical restraints. We find the approach followed in the British American Tobacco South Africa case generally consistent with an effects‐based analysis, but highlight some limitations.     

SH?RANG-SOFLĀ: THE ECONOMICS OF A NORTHEAST IRANIAN VILLAGE*

The village of Sh?-Soflā, located in the Gorgān region of northeast Iran, has had its predominantly agricultural economy revolutionized over recent years by significant increases in the percentage of cotton, tobacco, and other cash crops planted by its peasants, paralleled by a tightening of the grip of commercial capital upon the small producer. In this paper, I propose to examine the impact of these revolutionizing changes upon the structure of the agricultural economy, using the material gathered during a field study of the village of Sh?rang-Soflā carried out by the author in August of 1963.