DIRECTED SEARCH,COORDINATION FAILURE,AND SELLER PROFITS: AN EXPERIMENTAL COMPARISON OF POSTED PRICING WITH SINGLE AND MULTIPLE PRICES

We experimentally examine posted pricing and directed search. In one treatment, capacity‐constrained sellers post fixed prices, which buyers observe before choosing whom to visit. In the other, firms post both “single‐buyer” (applied when one buyer visits) and “multibuyer” (when multiple buyers visit) prices. We find, based on a 2 × 2 (two buyers and two sellers) market and a follow‐up experiment with 3 and 2 × 3 markets, that multibuyer prices can be lower than single‐buyer prices or prices in the one‐price treatment. Also, allowing the multibuyer price does not affect seller profits and increases market frictions.     

POLLUTION PERMIT SYSTEMS AND FIRM DYNAMICS: HOW DOES THE ALLOCATION SCHEME MATTER?*

I use a firm dynamics model to compare two permit allocation schemes commonly used in pollution permit systems. In the first, closing plants keep their permits, and new entrants do not get them, whereas in the second, closing plants lose their permits, and new entrants get free allowances. Calibrating the model with data from power plants participating in the U.S. program, I find that, compared to the first scheme, in the second arrangement, (i) plants stay, on average, 3.6 years longer and (ii) although the aggregate emission rate is lower, the plant distribution displays more dirty and low‐productivity plants.     

EXISTENCE OF STATIONARY EQUILIBRIUM IN AN INCOMPLETE-MARKET MODEL WITH ENDOGENOUS LABOR SUPPLY

In this article, I first study an income fluctuation problem with endogenous labor supply. Let β be the agent's time discount factor and be the constant gross rate of return on assets. For , I show that the agent's wealth either approaches infinity almost surely or converges to a finite level almost surely. For , I prove the existence, uniqueness, and stability of the stationary distribution of state variables. I then show the existence of the stationary general equilibrium in an incomplete-market model with endogenous labor supply.     

GLOBAL GAMES WITH STRATEGIC SUBSTITUTES

We study global games with strategic substitutes. Specifically, for a class of binary‐action, ‐player games with strategic substitutes, we prove that under payoff asymmetry, as incomplete information vanishes, the global games approach selects a unique equilibrium. We characterize this equilibrium profile ; players employ switching strategies at different cutoff signals, the order of which is directly determined by payoff asymmetry. We provide examples that illustrate our result and its connection with dominance solvability. We extend the global game literature, which has thus far been developed for games with strategic complementarities, to new applications in industrial organization, collective action problems, finance, etc .     

Marginal Subsidies in Tullock Contests

In a general Tullock contest, we examine a situation where a limited resource can be used to provide marginal subsidies to either player (weak or strong), or to increase the prize directly. We show that to maximize total effort, subsidizing the weak/strong player is preferred when the contest is sufficiently accurate/inaccurate. This result generalizes to n‐player lottery contests. In a lottery contest (Tullock contest with ), we derive the optimal scheme for a full range of resource: when the resource is small, it is optimal to only subsidize the weak player; when it is large, both players should be subsidized simultaneously.     

On Risk and Uncertainty,and Objective versus Subjective Probability

In this paper, we use the algebra to characterise decision‐makers’ representations of risk and uncertainty. We show that risk can be represented by objective probabilities on one part of the algebra, and that uncertainty can be represented by subjective probabilities on the other part. Decision‐makers are shown to maximise a generalised form of rank‐dependent expected utility. Their occasionally anomalous behaviour is discussed.     

Estimation of Binary Response Models With Endogenous Regressors

This paper reviews six approaches to binary response (y₁) structural forms with an endogenous regressor y₂: (i) the two‐stage least squares estimator‐like substitution approach, (ii) the control function approach, (iii) the system reduced‐form approach, (iv) the artificial instrumental regressor approach, (v) the transformed‐response instrumental variable estimator approach and (vi) the classical maximum likelihood estimator approach. The applicability of the six methods differs greatly, depending on whether y₂ is a continuously distributed random variable or a discrete transformation of a latent . We conduct a real‐data‐based simulation study, and provide an empirical illustration. Our overall recommendation is using (i) and (ii), as the others have undesirable features such as analytic complexity in (iii), computational difficulty in (iv) and (vi), and poor finite‐sample performance in (v).     

PROGRESSIVE TAXATION,ENDOGENOUS GROWTH,AND MACROECONOMIC (IN)STABILITY

In the context of a standard one‐sector model of endogenous growth, we show that the economy exhibits equilibrium indeterminacy and belief‐driven aggregate fluctuations under progressive taxation of income. When the tax schedule is regressive or flat, the economy's balanced growth path displays saddle‐path stability and equilibrium uniqueness. These results imply that in sharp contrast to a conventional automatic stabilizer, progressive income taxation may destabilize an endogenously growing macroeconomy by generating cyclical fluctuations driven by agents' self‐fulfilling expectations or sunspots.     

Endogenous Market Structures and International Trade: Theory and Evidence

Under constant elasticity of substitution (CES) preferences and Cournot (or Bertrand) competition, a larger market induces exits of domestic firms, lower prices, and larger production of surviving firms because of competition from more foreign firms, even without resorting to the selection effects of Melitz. The elasticity of the number of firms to population decreases with substitutability between goods, and it reaches 0.5 under Cournot competition with homogeneous goods: empirical evidence supports this structural relation against the unitary elasticity of monopolistic competition. The results hold also in a Heckscher–Ohlin model with imperfect competition generating inter‐ and intra‐industry trade due to comparative advantage or comparative preferences.     

Do Rising Top Incomes Spur Economic Growth? Evidence From OECD Countries Based on a Novel Identification Strategy

We investigate the causal relationship between the growth rate of top income shares and economic growth in 12 OECD economies for the period 1950–2010. To analyze patterns of short- and long-run causality, we build upon recent advances in structural-vector autoregressive modeling of non-Gaussian systems. This framework allows us to discriminate between rival transmission channels by means of dependence tests, since independent shocks are unique for a particular causation pattern. We consider the share of income accruing to the top 1 percent (1), to the next 9 percent (9), and to the top decile (10). While structural models display considerable heterogeneity across countries, mean group and pooled results strongly favor a specific transmission pattern. In particular, 1 has a long-run positive impact on economic development. This result, which is also confirmed by identified impulse-response functions, is particularly evident for the post-1980 period.     

Do they come back again? Job search,labour market segmentation and state dependence as explanations of repeat unemployment

This study investigates the causes of recurrent unemployment. Using data from the Austrian unemployment register we test the explanatory power of three different approaches which appear in the literature: job search theory, labour market segmentation and state dependence. Whereas job search theory does not seem to be able to explain anything, labour market segmentation does. However, the most powerful determinant of the risk of unemployment repetition is past unemployment history. This micro finding is not inconsistent with theories explaining the persistent high level of unemployment rates.This research was supported by the Austrian Fonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung under the project Dynamik der Arbeitslosigkeit und Beschäftigung. Special thanks for valuable comments go to M. Riese, V. Steiner, J. Stern and two anonymous referees.     

The Henderson Question? The Melbourne Institute and 50 Years of Welfare Policy

I discuss selected research contributions of the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research to 50 years of welfare policy for those of workforce age and focus particularly on the policy focus of R. F. Henderson, the inaugural director. Following the spirit of his 1960s poverty research, in the mid‐1970s, government doubled unemployment allowances in real terms and increased pensions by approximately 40 per cent. Both income support payments were to be indexed by average wage increases. At the time, unemployment was typically around 1 per cent and the pension take‐up for those of workforce age was also limited. Today, income support take‐up rates have probably increased fivefold. In response, government has adopted a ‘make work pay’ policy over the last two decades and indexed allowances for Consumer Price Index increases and allowances have fallen by 25–35 per cent, relative to community living standards. Pensions continue to be indexed by average wage changes. I address a range of questions arising from this experience, including: Why has government abandoned the Henderson recommendations?; Is there any evidence that a ‘make work pay’ policy is working?

     

Policy matters. The long run effects of aggregate demand and mark-up shocks on the Italian unemployment rate

This paper estimates a VAR including labor productivity, real wage and unemployment rate, to identify the dynamic effects of technology, demand, and mark-up shocks, respectively, on the Italian labor market. Identification is achieved by imposing recursive restrictions on the matrix of long run multipliers. Our results show that both mark up and aggregate demand shocks permanently reduce the unemployment rate. Finally, technology shocks do not significantly affect the unemployment rate in the long run. These findings convey important policy implications: expansionary aggregate demand and deregulation policies reducing the mark up permanently decrease the Italian unemployment rate.Jel classification: C32, E32, J29This paper has been produced as part of a CEPR Research Network on New Approaches to the Study of Economic Fluctuations. We would like to thank Marcello DAmato, Mario Forni, Marco Lippi and Antonio Ribba for useful comments. We are also grateful to Bernd Sussmuth for pointing out to us several significant improvements to the paper.First version received: November 2001/Final version received: October 2002     

Score manipulation,density continuity and intent-to-treat effect for regression discontinuity

Regression discontinuity (RD) is widely used in many disciplines of science to find treatment effect when the treatment is determined by an underlying running variable (‘score') crossing a cutoff or not. The main attraction of RD is local randomization around , which is, however, often ruined by manipulation on . To detect manipulation, the continuity of score density function at is routinely tested in practice. In this paper, we examine how informative is for RD, and show the following. First, for incumbency effect in election to which RD has been heavily applied, may have no information content. Second, for RD in general, the continuity is neither necessary nor sufficient for RD validity. Third, if the treatment cannot be implemented without manipulation of , then the manipulation had better be considered as part of the treatment effect, much as in ‘intent-to-treat effect’ for clinical trials. These findings call for relying less on continuity tests and, instead, thinking more about how subjects react to the treatment to modify their , how to design the treatment to lessen manipulation, and what to take as the desired treatment effect.     

Reemployment wages and UI liquidity effect: a regression discontinuity approach

This paper puts together the non-distortionary liquidity effect of unemployment insurance and job match quality. We identify a big impact on subsidized unemployment duration and a small impact on wages on the job that follows the unemployment spell. Wage gains are heterogeneous and concentrated on individuals at the bottom of the pre-unemployment income distribution. The non-distortionary nature of the liquidity effect reduces the pressure on low-income workers to accept lower productivity jobs.

Joint production in teams

Consider Holmström's moral hazard in teams problem when there are n agents, each agent i has an a_i-dimensional strategy space and output is m-dimensional. We show that a compensation mechanism that satisfies budget balance, limited liability and implements an efficient allocation generically exists if and only if . Moreover, under a weak additional condition, the equilibrium implemented by this mechanism is unique in the class of pure strategy Coalition-Proof equilibria.     

OPTIMAL UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE,WITH HUMAN CAPITAL DEPRECIATION,AND DURATION DEPENDENCE*

This article introduces the possibility of a deterioration in job opportunities during unemployment into the standard optimal unemployment insurance (UI) design framework and characterizes the efficient UI scheme. The optimal program may display two novel features, which cannot be present in stationary models. First, UI transfers are bounded below by a minimal assistance level that arises endogenously in the efficient contract. Second, the optimal scheme implies a wage subsidy for long‐term unemployed workers. Numerical simulations based on the Spanish and U.S. economies suggest that both assistance transfers and wage subsidies should be part of the UI scheme in these countries.     

Estimating persistence in Canadian unemployment: evidence from a Bayesian ARFIMA

The degree of persistence in aggregate Canadian unemployment is estimated within a Bayesian ARFIMA class of models. The results conclude that unemployment exhibits persistence in the short and intermediate run. The evidence of persistence is stronger than previously reported by Koustas and Veloce (1996 Koustas, Z and Veloce, W. 1996. Unemployment hysteresis in Canada: an approach based on long-memory time series models. Applied Economics, 28: 823–31. [Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). This persistence cast a vital implication regarding disinflation policies, Based on the unemployment rate, these policies will prove very costly in terms of lost output and – if implemented – they considerably lengthen recessions.     

The endogeneity of the natural rate of growth in the regions of Italy

Following León‐Ledesma and Thirlwall (2002a León‐Ledesma, M.A. and Thirlwall, A.P. 2002a. The endogeneity of the natural rate of growth. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 26: 441–59. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]), this paper examines the hypothesis that the natural rate of growth of the Italian regions is endogenous to and positively affected by the actual growth rate. Relying on fixed‐effects and SUR estimation techniques and using annual data for the 20 Italian regions over the period 1977–2003, we find strong support for the endogeneity hypothesis suggesting that faster actual growth raises the natural rate of growth of the average Italian region by about 3–3.7 percentage points. Furthermore, in line with recent findings in the literature, our analysis provides evidence of asymmetries in Okun’s Law. In particular, the asymmetric Okun coefficient in the high‐growth regime turns out to be positive in several cases, implying the unemployment rate may become pro‐cyclical when actual growth rises above a certain threshold rate.     

Beveridge's analysis of unemployment in 1909: the reserve of labour

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to provide a rational reconstruction of Beveridge's theory of unemployment published in 1909. First and foremost, it shows that his theory of unemployment is coherent – what Beveridge refers to as ‘the reserve of labour’ represents ‘unemployment’ as a whole; unemployment is due to the imperfection of the labour market and associated friction and the organisation of the labour market is necessary. Second, it suggests that as early as 1909, a negative relationship already existed between unemployment and job vacancies and that the segmentation of the labour market and imperfect information are key factors of friction. The first part of the paper provides a reconstruction of Beveridge's theory of the reserve of labour (1909) including causes and factors of unemployment and unemployment policies. The second part shows that certain founding principles of the ‘Beveridge curve’ (Beveridge 1944 Beveridge, W. H. 1944 [1953]. Full Employment in a Free Society, London: George Allen and Unwin.  [Google Scholar] [1953]) were already to be found in his 1909 book and that links can be established between Beveridge (1909 Beveridge, W. H. 1909. Unemployment: A Problem of Industry, London: Longmans, Green and Co.  [Google Scholar]), Phelps (1970 Phelps, E. S. 1970. The new microeconomic in inflation and employment theory. The American Economic Review, 59(2): 147–60. [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Pissarides (2000 Pissarides, C. A. 2000. Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.  [Google Scholar]).