FIRM‐LEVEL INVESTMENT AND EXPORT DYNAMICS*

This article characterizes the complementarity between exporting and investment in physical capital. We argue that new investment allows young exporters to grow faster and survive longer in export markets while reducing their vulnerability to productivity or demand shocks across markets. We structurally estimate our model using detailed firm‐level data. We find that the choice of cost structure has a large impact on model performance and the estimated costs of exporting or investment. Using detailed capital and output tariff rates, we quantify the impact of policy change on aggregate export and investment growth.     

The role of extensive and intensive margins and export growth

We investigate and compare countries' export growth based on their performance at the extensive and intensive export margins. Our empirical approach is motivated by an extension to the Melitz (2003) model of heterogeneous firms in which exporters are subject to a one-time sunk cost and also a per-period fixed cost. With imperfect information a firm may enter export markets but shortly exit when it learns its per-period fixed costs. We apply this insight to disaggregated export data and confirm that indeed most export relationships are very short lived. We then show that the survival issue is a significant factor in explaining differences in long run export performance. We find that developing countries would experience significantly higher export growth if they were able to improve their performance with respect to the two key components of the intensive margin: survival and deepening.     

Explaining the Timing of Australia's Manufactured Export Boom

Abstract
This article seeks to explain some of the recent growth in Australia's manufactured exports using a sunk cost model. It is shown that a shock to the economy can cause a sudden and permanent increase in exports. Results from a sample survey suggest that the increased export orientation of Australia's manufacturing sector may persist, even if the recent economic shocks faced by exporters are reversed .     

Austrian exporters: unique or alike? New insights and missing puzzle pieces

In this paper we provide detailed evidence on the performance of exporters compared to non-exporters in Austrian manufacturing industries based on firm-level data. The centrepiece of the study is the issue of the export premium, i.e. the size and productivity advantages of exporting firms compared to their purely domestic peers. We present evidence for the existence of sales, labour productivity and wage premia. These results are largely in line with the results found for other European countries. Furthermore we document the existence of large differences in these premia across industries and provide explanations for this finding. Our results are robust with regards to including additional firm control variables such as employment and R&D-related variables though the magnitudes of the export premia become much smaller. We also propose a new interpretation of the export premium estimation with firm fixed effects which we interpret as a result on export switchers. Finally, we employ a probit model to document the importance of sunk export costs for the decision to export.     

Big is Beautiful when Exporting

This paper starts out from the observation that the export ratios of firms (export to sales ratios) vary greatly among firms and that they are systematically higher for larger exporters. We relate the difference in export ratios to firm‐level differences in transport costs. In accordance with the data, we assume that freight rates are a function of firm‐level export volumes. We test our model using Japanese manufacturing firm‐level data. We first estimate the elasticity of the freight rate with respect to firm‐level export volumes at the sector level. When feeding these estimates back into the model, it can explain more than 50% of the variation in firm‐level export ratios.     

Productivity Performance of Export Market Entry and Exit: Evidence from Indian Firms

This paper contributes to the literature on exporting and firm productivity, focusing on export entry (efficiency), learning (post‐entry growth) and exit (inefficiency) by Indian firms. Drawing on 7000 firms during 1989–2009, our main objective is to examine the effect of exporting on firm productivity, correcting for selection bias using propensity‐score matching, which allows a “like‐for‐like” comparison between new exporters and nonexporters. Robust to different matching estimators, we find evidence of learning‐by‐exporting that new exporters acquire rapid productivity growth after entry, relative to nonexporters. We also find that (1) exporters are more productive than nonexporters; (2) productive firms tend to self‐select in entering the exporting market, and (3) least productive exporters are found to exit the export market as they experience adverse productivity effect prior to the year of exit. Our robust result on learning‐by‐exporting suggests that entering export market does appear to be a channel explaining the Indian recent growth miracle.     

Exchange rates and trade: How important is hysteresis in trade?

This paper looks at the responsiveness of a country's export supply to exchange rate changes and measures its quantitative importance by breaking down export adjustments between changes in output levels by existing exporters (intensive margin) and movements due to changes in the number of exporters (extensive margin). Using data on a representative sample of Spanish manufacturing firms, the paper finds sunk costs hysteresis in entry and exit to be an important factor in determining export market participation, but unrelated to exchange rate uncertainty. The sunk costs of entering the market appear to be much larger than the costs of exiting the market. Finally, although hysteresis exists, its effect on the responsiveness of aggregate trade volumes to exchange rate changes is quantitatively small. A 10% home currency depreciation results in an increases in export volume due to the increase in the number of exporting firms of only 1.4% of export volume.     

PRICE,PRODUCT QUALITY,AND EXPORTER DYNAMICS: EVIDENCE FROM CHINA

This article develops a model of heterogeneous firms that endogenously choose prices and product quality to build demand in export markets. New exporters optimally charge relatively low prices and produce low‐quality goods upon entry. Product quality, prices, and sales increase as demand grows. We structurally estimate model parameters using Chinese customs data. The estimated incentive to build future demand reduces average export prices by 0.7% and increases export sales by 4% upon entry. Endogenous demand accumulation causes estimated export prices, product quality, and sales to grow by 2.2%, 12%, and 79%, respectively, over the following five years.     

Export tightening,competition, and firm innovation: Evidence from the renminbi appreciation

This paper investigates how firm innovation reacts to changes in competitive pressure in the export market. We use the exchange rate appreciation of the renminbi during 2005–2007 as a natural experiment and exploit its differential impact on Chinese manufacturing firms with different export exposure. The appreciation reduced exports and imposed greater competitive pressure on exporters relative to non‐exporters. In response, exporters increased innovation activities more than non‐exporters. Using a difference‐in‐difference approach, we find that the research and development expenditure of exporters increased by 11% more than that of non‐exporters during the appreciation period, and the new product development of exporters increased by nearly 1.5 times more than that of non‐exporters. These results highlight the important role of competition in providing incentives for firm innovation.     

Export market participation with sunk costs and firm heterogeneity

In this article we investigate the importance of sunk costs, firm characteristics and spillovers from nearby exporters on a firm's decision to participate in exporting. The empirical analysis involves the estimation of a nonstructural, discrete choice, dynamic model with firm heterogeneity. By using panel data for Estonian companies from 1994 to 1999 we find that: (i) both sunk costs and observable firm characteristics are important determinants of export market participation; (ii) previous history matters, in that, if a firm has been exporting the previous period or the period before, it significantly increases the likelihood of the firm exporting in the current period; (iii) larger firms with high capital intensity and foreign ownership are more likely to be exporters; (iv) operating in an export-oriented industry increases a firm's likelihood of exporting.     

Does Exporting Increase Productivity? A Microeconometric Analysis of Matched Firms

Exporting involves sunk costs, so some firms export whilst others do not. This proposition derives from a number of models of firm behavior and has been exposed to microeconometric analysis. Evidence from the latter suggests that exporting firms are generally more productive than nonexporters. They self‐select, in that they are more productive before they enter export markets, but the evidence suggests that entry does not make them any more productive. This paper investigates exporting and firm performance for a large panel of UK manufacturing firms, applying matching techniques. The authors find that exporters are more productive and they do self‐select. In contrast to other evidence, however, exporting further increases firm productivity.     

Skill‐biased heterogeneous firms,trade liberalization and the skill premium

We propose a theory that rising globalization and rising wage inequality are related because trade liberalization raises the demand facing highly competitive skill‐intensive firms. In our model, only the lowest‐cost firms participate in the global economy exactly along the lines of Melitz ( 2003 ). In addition to differing in their productivity, firms differ in their skill intensity. We model skill‐biased technology as a correlation between skill intensity and technological acumen, and we estimate this correlation to be large using firm‐level data from Chile in 1995. A fall in trade costs leads to both greater trade volumes and an increase in the relative demand for skill, as the lowest‐cost/most‐skilled firms expand to serve the export market while less skill‐intensive non‐exporters retrench in the face of increased import competition. This mechanism works regardless of factor endowment differences, so we provide an explanation for why globalization and wage inequality move together in both skill‐abundant and skill‐scarce countries. In our model countries are net exporters of the services of their abundant factor, but there are no Stolper‐Samuelson effects because import competition affects all domestic firms equally.     

Entry, Expansion, and Intensity in the US Export Boom, 1987–1992

US exports grew at 10.3% per year from 1987 to 1992, far faster than the economy as a whole. This paper examines sources of the manufacturing export boom, including entry, firm expansion, and export intensity. Most of the increase in exports came from increasing export intensity at existing exporters rather than from new entry into exporting. The small role of entry relative to export intensity offers support for the importance of sunk costs in the export market. Changes in exchange rates and rises in foreign income drove most of the export increase, while plant productivity increases played a smaller role.     

Sunk Costs,Firm Heterogeneity,Export Market Entry and Exit: Evidence from India

This paper analyses the role of sunk costs and firm heterogeneity in firm decision to enter and exit export markets. Employing rich firm-level data on Indian manufacturing firms, the study points out that sunk costs in terms of previous export experience significantly explain entry and exit decisions of firms in the export market. The first set of analysis involves estimation of dynamic discrete choice model using random effects probit correcting for initial conditions problem. We find evidence that previous export experience (sunk costs) matters for export decision. However, importance of sunk costs is found to depreciate rapidly. Further, analysis across sub-sample of firms accounting for firm heterogeneity factors like size and product level information supports the hypothesis of sunk costs. Second set of analysis involving firm survival in export markets using discrete-time hazard models shows evidence of negative duration dependence. We observe that those firms which continue to export for few years are less likely to exit from export markets.

     

Internet use and export upgrading: Firm‐level evidence from China

This paper explores the impact of widespread Internet use on the product choices of exporters. Based on a highly disaggregated firm–product‐level data matched from the Annual Survey of Industrial Firms and China Customs Transaction Database, our baseline empirical analysis suggests that (1) Internet use (i.e., having an official website or corporate email) affects both extensive margin and quality margin of exported products; (2) exporters using Internet propone to expand their product line of export by introducing new products (cost‐reduction effect on extensive margin); (3) the average quality of exported products becomes lower after the Internet is adopted by exporters (competition effect on quality margin). Our heterogeneous analysis further shows that (1) exporters with high productivity are immune to the negative impact of Internet use on quality margin and maintain quality growth; (2) having an official website exerts larger impacts on both extensive margin and quality margin compared with only having a corporate email system. Our research sheds light on the existing literature on Internet use and firm export behaviors.     

Exporters in cross‐section: Direct versus intermediated trade

How do producers that export their goods directly differ from those that export through trade intermediaries? We take a standard model of trade with heterogeneous firms and add heterogeneity in quality to the usual heterogeneity in productivity. Modeling trade intermediaries as increasing marginal costs but decreasing fixed costs of exporting, we find that only firms with the highest quality‐adjusted productivity levels choose to export directly. Under certain parameter restrictions, the model shows that direct exporters tend to be larger and charge higher prices for their goods. In contrast to the literature, using Chinese customs data, we confirm that direct exporters do charge higher prices for their goods.     

企业出口与生产率的关系——基于中国工业企业数据的实证研究

采用1998—2007年中国工业企业数据,对出口与生产率的关系进行了再探讨,具体研究了出口企业是否具有更高的生产率、企业在做出口决策的过程中是否存在自我选择机制以及出口行为本身是否能促进企业生产率的增长。研究结果显示:当用TFP衡量生产率时,企业出口决策中存在自我选择机制,因此出口企业的生产率相对较高——这与异质企业贸易模型的预期结果一致;当用劳动生产率(人均附加值)衡量企业生产率时,则"生产率悖论"存在,即出口者的生产率反而较低;当企业刚进入出口市场时,其生产率会经历短期的快速增长,但从长期来看,出口对企业生产率增长的作用在整体上是负向的。     

FINANCIAL FRICTIONS AND NEW EXPORTER DYNAMICS

This article studies the role of financial frictions as a barrier to international trade. We study new exporter dynamics to identify how these frictions affect export decisions. We introduce a borrowing constraint and working capital requirements into a standard model of international trade, with exports more working capital intensive than domestic sales. Our model can quantitatively account for new exporter dynamics in contrast to a model with sunk export entry costs. We provide additional evidence in support of our mechanism. We find that financial frictions reduce the impact of trade liberalization, suggesting that they constitute an important trade barrier.     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXPORT STATUS AND PRODUCTIVITY IN SERVICES: A FIRM‐LEVEL ANALYSIS FOR SPAIN

This paper analyses the relationship between export status and productivity in a major service exporter, Spain, during 2001–07. I find that exporters in the services sector are 45 percent more productive than non‐exporters. This productivity premium is larger for firms that supply non‐internet‐related services than for firms that supply internet‐related services. The results show that exporters were more productive than non‐exporters before beginning to export, and also that exporting increases productivity growth; however, this positive shock vanishes quickly.     

A model of firm heterogeneity in factor intensities and international trade

Empirical evidence suggests that exporters are, in addition to being more productive, significantly more skilled‐labour intensive than non‐exporters. In a setting that captures both these features, we show that the firm selection induced by trade liberalization works along two dimensions. First, export growth increases competition for skilled labour. This leads to the exit of some of the skilled‐labour intensive firms, while benefitting unskilled‐labour intensive ones. Second, within the group of firms with the same factor intensities, the reallocation of factors is towards the exporters. We show that the increased competition for skilled labour dampens the positive effect of trade liberalization on sector‐wide TFP and real income.