股票市场、金融中介与经济增长的实证研究

金融发展是影响经济增长的至关重要的因素之一,本文利用2003²013年的季度数据,通过构建联立方程模型,使用广义矩估计(GMM)方法研究了中国股票市场、金融中介与经济增长之间的关系。实证结果表明:股票市场发展并不是经济增长的原因,而经济增长促进了股票市场繁荣;金融中介的发展促进经济增长,而经济增长时由于金融中介的逆向操作往往使得金融中介的总体规模降低;股票市场发展与金融中介发展相互促进。据此,我们认为我过的金融市场还不够完善,应进一步完善体制,规范操作,促进经济协调发展。     

金融发展与经济增长:中国的经验研究

本文采用GMM估计量,把影响中国经济增长的重要变量(投资、出口、进口、人力资本、制度质量和通货膨胀)作为条件信息集,对金融发展(债券市场、股票市场和银行发展)与中国经济增长的关系及其作用机制进行了实证研究。文章发现:债券市场规模发展、银行对私人信贷扩张和股票市场流动性提高显著地促进经济增长,而股票市场规模发展和波动性扩大对经济增长具有显著的负面影响。金融发展对中国经济增长的作用机制主要是通过促进投资规模扩张,进而驱动经济增长。     

我国金融发展与技术创新相关性的实证分析

文章利用我国1995年第1季度至2007年第2季度的相关金融数据和反映技术创新的有关数据进行深入的实证分析。文章的结论主要有：第一,我国金融中介的发展与技术创新有着长期的正相关关系并且金融中介的发展对技术创新产生了促进作用;第二,我国股票市场的发展与技术创新之间也存在着长期的正相关性,股票市场的流动性对技术创新的推动作用大于扩大股市规模对技术创新的影响。     

金融发展与经济增长——基于甘肃省的实证分析

本文以甘肃省为例,运用金融发展的三个指标即经济金融化程度、证券经济化程度、保险经济化程度,对金融发展与经济增长的关系进行了实证检验,得出了甘肃经济金融化程度指标C/GDP与经济增长呈正相关关系,但金融发展与经济增长不协调,金融存在"高投入,低产出"问题;股票市场对经济增长有不显著的作用;保险业对甘肃经济增长的贡献不大的结论,并据此提出了相关建议。     

粤港澳大湾区金融发展与经济增长关系实证研究

本文通过协整分析、VAR模型、格兰杰因果检验等方法对粤港澳大湾区金融发展与经济增长关系进行实证分析,研究发现:第一,金融中介效率、保险市场发展对粤港澳大湾区经济增长存在长期促进作用;第二,金融中介效率、保险市场发展、证券市场发展是大湾区经济增长的单向格兰杰原因。     

江苏省金融发展与经济增长的实证研究——基于协整分析和误差修正模型

文章通过1992-2008年的相关数据,选取了5个指标,基于协整分析和误差分析模型进行实证分析,结果显示金融相关率促进经济增长;金融效率、保险市场发展程度与经济增长呈负相关;股票市场发展对区域经济增长作用不明显;金融发展对经济增长的长期效应大于短期.最后,针对实证结果,提出了江苏省经济增长过程中金融支持方面的对策建议.     

江苏省金融发展与经济增长关系实证研究

长三角地区,经济快速增长的同时伴随着地区金融的不断发展,规范、有效的金融体系能够有效地推动地区经济增长。文章利用长三角地区江苏省的有关年度数据进行了实证计量分析,分析的结果表明在该地区金融中介体发展促进了地区经济增长率的提高,金融中介体发展已经成为经济增长作用机制的一部分,而股票市场尚未起到对经济增长的推动作用。结合实证分析的结果,本文认为在注重地区金融发展水平量的增加的同时,要注重金融发展效率的提高,金融体制的改革与完善,最终更有效地促进地区经济增长。     

金融发展与经济增长互动机制初探

针对金融发展理论与实证研究的分歧,引出金融发展的度量问题。本文将分歧的产生归因于两点:一是对金融发展的度量常常局限于对金融中介的度量,而忽视金融市场;二是有关金融发展指标没有考虑金融风险因素。进一步从金融生态的角度,探讨金融发展与经济增长的互动关系,建立了分析金融发展与经济增长相互关系的指标体系。     

金融中介、金融市场与经济增长:以中国为案例

本文先从金融中介与金融市场之间的关系入手,得出长期中国还不存在金融中介和金融市场排斥的作用,接着通过1992-2010年的年度经济数据实证得出,金融中介与金融市场对于中国经济有很强的促进作用.文章选取中国股市做实证研究,说明股市的规模和交易率指标对于经济增长的促进作用明显,但是换手率指标对于经济增长的作用有限.最后得出结论,推动金融市场尤其是股市的繁荣与金融中介的扩张并不矛盾,对于中国经济增长具有积极意义.     

金融中介部门发展与经济增长——基于转型国家的实证检验

通过利用25个转型国家1993-2003年的面板数据,对转型国家金融中介部门发展与经济增长的关系进行检验后发现:存贷款利差与实际GDP增长率互为因果关系;对私人部门信贷的相对增加不仅没有加速经济增长,相反在有些国家还阻碍了经济的长期增长。广义货币量的相对增加对转型国家的经济增长没有促进作用,甚至在CEE和波罗的海国家,M2占GDP的比重与实际GDP增长率之间存在显著负相关。实证结果表明,在软约束盛行的转型国家,提高金融中介部门的效率比其增加其对私人部门的信贷更有利于加速经济增长。     

Entry,information, and financial development: A century of competition between French banks and notaries

Poorly developed financial markets are widely believed to block economic growth, because only modern financial intermediaries such as banks can mobilize large amounts of financial capital at low cost. This claim is supported by cross country regressions, but the regressions assume that credit intermediation is measured accurately before modern financial intermediaries arrive. If traditional intermediaries were mobilizing large amounts of financial capital before banks or other modern intermediaries appear, then the strength of the relationship between financial development and economic growth would be cast into doubt. Using an original panel dataset from nineteenth-century France, we provide the first estimates of how much financial capital key traditional intermediaries (notaries) were mobilizing for an entire economy during its first century of economic growth, and we analyze the lending that the notaries made possible in French mortgage market. The amount of capital they mobilized turns out to be large. We then analyze the effect that financial deepening had on the notaries as banks spread and find that the banks' and notaries' services were in all likelihood complements. The implication is that the link between financial development and economic growth may therefore be weaker than is assumed.     

Financial System and Economic Growth: The Korean Experience

This paper examines the relationship between the development of financial systems and economic growth using Korea as a case study. In particular, we focus on the relative development of financial intermediaries and capital markets, and their impact on the portfolio behavior of the household and business sectors. Causality and non-nested model selection tests show that financial development in general leads economic growth and that financial intermediaries are more important than capital markets in this relationship.     

Financial Development,Market Deregulation and Growth: Evidence from China

In this paper, the relationship between finance and growth is analysed in the context of an endogenous growth model with government regulation and intervention. Our theoretical model suggests that financial intermediaries can affect the process of economic growth in several ways. Using the recent Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) techniques, we test our model in a panel data set covering 29 Chinese provinces over the period of 1990–2001. Empirical results show that financial development and government deregulation in the financial sector significantly promote China's economic growth.     

基于经济区视角下的区域金融发展与经济增长关系的实证研究——以京津冀经济区为例

本文从跨行政区的经济区的视角来研究区域金融发展与经济增长之间的关系,采用协整检验和因果关系检验对以京津冀经济区进行实证研究。检验结果显示:在京津冀经济区金融规模与金融效率对经济增长存在正相关性,但是,两者对经济增长的促进作用并不显著。金融规模与经济增长之间不具有因果关系,而经济增长与金融效率之间存在显著的单向因果关系。说明京津冀经济区的经济增长与金融深化发展遵循的是需求引致型发展模式。     

Equity,Bonds, Institutional Debt and Economic Growth: Evidence from South Africa

We examine the finance‐growth nexus in South Africa accounting for the role of bond markets, stock markets, and bank and non‐bank financial intermediaries using a vector autoregressive technique. Extant empirical literature has largely accounted for only banks and stock markets, ignoring bond market and non‐bank financial intermediaries. We find that bond market development affects economic growth in South Africa, and no similar effect is observed for the bank and non‐bank financial intermediaries and the stock market. Our finding shows that examination of individual elements of the financial system is important in understanding the unique effect of each on growth. The observation that the bond market rather than stock market, bank and non‐bank institutions promote economic growth in South Africa induces an intriguing question as to what unique roles bond markets play that the intermediaries and equity market are unable to play.     

Analyzing the Dynamic Relationships between Physical Infrastructure,Financial Development and Economic Growth in India

This paper investigates the dynamic relationships between physical infrastructure, financial development and economic growth in the case of India, using the autoregressive distributed lag and the Toda–Yamamoto causality approach for the period 1980 to 2016. A physical infrastructure index and a financial development index are constructed using the principal component analysis. The empirical results suggest that physical infrastructure has a positive effect on economic growth both in the long run and short run, whereas financial development, although significant, has a weak impact on economic growth. The causality test supports a bidirectional causal relationship between infrastructure development and economic growth, while it finds unidirectional causation running from economic growth to financial development. As India is aiming for higher growth for a sustained period, our results suggest that there is a need for government intervention in expanding the physical infrastructure and this, in turn, could lead to economic growth as well as financial sector development.     

Development of financial intermediation and economic growth: The Chinese experience

Using Chinese provincial data from 1985 to 1999 and applying recent GMM techniques developed for dynamic panels, this paper examines how the development of financial intermediation influences China's economic growth during the post-1978 reform period. Our econometric results show that China's financial intermediation development contributes to its rapid economic growth through two channels: first, the substitution of loans for state budget appropriation and second, the mobilization of household savings. Loan expansion, however, does not contribute to growth since loan distribution by financial intermediaries is inefficient. Deep financial sector reform aimed at correcting this inefficiency is desirable, and is expected to sustain China's economic development in the future.     

福建省经济增长的金融支持研究

一个地区的经济增长和金融发展之间存在密切的关系。本文在已有理论和文献的基础上,采用协整分析和格兰杰因果检验对1980年到2012年福建省经济增长和金融发展之间的关系进行研究,发现福建省经济增长和金融发展之间存在相关性,福建省经济增长和金融发展互为Granger因果关系。通过分析实证研究的结果,为福建省推动金融深化,促进福建省下一阶段的金融发展与经济增长之间保持良性互动,提供有价值的政策建议。     

贵州省农村金融发展与农村经济增长关系的实证分析

本文以农村金融与经济增长相关理论为基础,阐述贵州省农村金融发展和经济增长现状,根据1978～2009年数据,通过协整检验说明贵州省农村金融发展农村经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,并建立VAR模型来考察金融相关率变动与第一产业值之间的动态影响关系。实证分析表明,与经济增长速度相比,贵州省农村金融发展程度相对滞后,贵州农村经济增长对农村金融发展的影响要大于金融发展对经济增长的影响,农村金融发展对经济增长的促进作用不明显。     

山东省金融结构与经济增长关系实证研究

金融发展与经济增长的关系一直受到学者的广泛关注,但有关金融结构与经济增长效应的研究却相对滞后.相比较金融规模而言,金融结构更能反映金融业的功能和效率且金融结构的优化对经济增长更具有推动作用.文章基于协整理论对山东省经济增长与金融结构的关系进行了实证研究,研究结果表明:山东省金融结构与经济增长存在长期协整关系,且贷款结构与经济增长存在双向因果关系.但山东省经济增长与融资结构演进之间并不存在因果关系,银行集中度变化并未构成经济增长的原因.