货币政策规则非对称性及其在我国的检验

 基于最优货币政策规则的研究框架,本文从非线性总供给曲线和中央银行非对称偏好的角度来阐述货币政策规则中非对称性的理论形成,并利用GMM方法估计和检验了我国货币政策反应函数中的非对称性。研究结果表明非线性总供给曲线可以作为解释我国货币政策非对称反应的一种来源,更重要的是,中央银行对通胀缺口存在负向偏好,且这种负向的通胀偏好可以很好地解释我国“后金融危机时代”的通货膨胀偏差,但对产出缺口的非对称偏好并不显著。此外,不同通胀目标的稳健性研究表明,中央银行都存在负向的通胀偏好,而且该负向偏好随着通胀目标的降低而逐渐减弱。     

“大水漫灌”还是“精准滴灌”:基于时-频域动态视角下房价调控机制研究

基于时-频域动态视角采用小波分析模型,文章结合高频序列和低频数据在同一框架内研究总量货币政策、结构性信贷政策和房价波动三者之间不同时期的动态影响关系,并进一步甄别供需调控对房价的异质性影响。实证发现,作为房价调控的手段,结构性信贷要优于总量货币政策,而结构性信贷的影响机制是,中期时供给端调控存在非对称性,长期和超长期需求端优于供给端调控,这表明需求结构性信贷政策+总量货币政策工具的调控效果更佳。因此,应用价值体现在遏制房价的过程中,政府应该让"大水漫灌"式的总量货币政策用于"事前预防",而让"精准滴灌"式的结构性信贷政策用于"事后控制",在不同的时-频域中以前者为辅后者为主交替或协调使用,以此防止房地产市场泡沫累积而爆发风险。     

Pushing on a string: State-owned enterprises and monetary policy transmission in China

This paper studies whether monetary transmission in China is asymmetric. While researchers have found an asymmetric transmission in the US and other economies, China offers a specific rationale for asymmetries: the presence of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) with preferential access to financing. To study the consequences of SOEs for monetary policy transmission, we differentiate between expansionary and restrictive policy shocks and argue that SOEs generally suffer less from a policy tightening and benefit more from a policy easing. Based on sector-specific macroeconomic time series and a large firm-level data set, we provide evidence of a systematic and sizeable asymmetry in the transmission of monetary policy shocks in China. The nature of the asymmetry is consistent with the notion of explicit or implicit government guarantees of SOEs and has consequences for the adjustment of aggregate variables. In contrast to other central banks, the People's Bank of China seems able to “push on a string”.     

New Keynesian Explanations of Cyclical Movements in Aggregate Inflation and Regional Inflation Differentials

What determines the cyclical behavior of aggregate inflation and regional inflation differentials? The answer has strong implications for monetary policy and in Europe for the Stability and Growth Pact. In the United States, inflation rates move pro-cyclically, and across the Euro Area, inflation differentials are positively correlated with growth differentials. This suggests that demand shocks are the primary determinants of the cyclical behavior of aggregate inflation and regional inflation differentials. In this paper, we discuss New Keynesian explanations of these correlations, and we argue that demand shocks are either missing or inadequately modeled in the in typical New Keynesian model.     

The time-frequency analysis of conventional and unconventional monetary policy: Evidence from Japan

The effects of monetary policy on the aggregate economy is an important issue that has been addressed mainly in the time domain, and relatively little is known about how monetary policy affects the macroeconomy in the time-frequency space. With a continuous wavelet multiple coherency and partial coherency approach, this paper contributes to the literature by characterizing the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy across frequencies and over time using a monthly dataset from Japan, which is in the vanguard in the practice of unconventional monetary policy. The empirical results show that: First, interest rate changes could be largely captured by inflation fluctuations across frequencies before 1999 but only at low frequencies after 1999. Second, movements of M1 could well reflect the variations of industrial production at the scale of 2–4 years before 1999, but this relationship was reversed at the same scale after 1999. Third, changes in M2 could roughly mirror the fluctuations of inflation at the scale of 3–4 years between 1966 and 1969, and this relationship was reversed at the scale of 1–3 years between 2003 and 2007. This study indicates that in Japan conventional and unconventional monetary policy generate heterogeneous effects on the aggregate economy and the level of heterogeneity partially depends on the chosen instrument.     

Divisia monetary aggregates and money demand for Malaysia

Divisia M1 and M2 are constructed for Malaysia. Unlike M1, Divisia M2 shows significant differences in both level and growth rates from its simple sum counterpart. We also compare these Divisia measures to simple sum M1 and M2 in a money demand function. Using error correction models, we examine short-run dynamics between these monetary aggregates and money demand determinants such as inflation, domestic and foreign interest rates, financial wealth, and income. We find that Divisia M2 is the most appropriate monetary aggregate of the four candidates to track money demand in Malaysia and should be used when conducting monetary policy.     

西方结构型通货膨胀理论及其对我国的启示

我们正面临西方国家曾经出现并已解决的结构型通货膨胀,我们需要认真研究西方结构型通货膨胀产生的历史背景、成因及其对策,借鉴发达国家治理结构型通货膨胀的对策与措施:实行紧缩性的货币政策、价格管制政策、供给管理政策、根据国际收支和国际市场的具体情况灵活变动汇率等。     

A nonlinear ARDL model of inflation dynamics in the Philippine economy

This study investigated whether global oil price changes, exchange rate, interest rate, and economic output exert symmetric or asymmetric pass-through effects on inflation in the Philippines. A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model was fitted to the observable data using quarterly observations from 1998 to 2019. Knowledge of these relationships is important in monetary policy setting in achieving targeted inflation; the Philippines adopted inflation targeting in 2002. The finding shows that world oil price shocks are still prominent and the most important determinants of inflation variations in the country. There is prima facie evidence on the short-run asymmetry of oil price changes to inflation. Exchange rate pass-through to inflation was very minimal in the short-run, and there is no long-run effect. Evidence that interest rate and demand shocks have a long-run asymmetric effect on inflation was found. These findings imply that monetary policy setting should account for the asymmetric effects of inflation determinants. Study results provide a deeper understanding of how positive and negative changes of inflation determinants affect actual inflation, which aids policymakers in achieving targeted inflation.     

Monetary Policy Committee Transparency: Measurement,Determinants, and Economic Effects

This paper studies monetary policy committee transparency (MPCT) based on a new index that measures central bankers’ educational and professional backgrounds as disclosed through central bank websites. Based on a novel cross-sectional data set covering 75 central banks, we investigate the determinants of MPCT as well as its economic consequences. We find that past inflation, institutional indicators, and monetary policy strategy are important determinants of MPCT. MPCT has a robust and significantly negative impact on inflation variability and inflation expectations, even after controlling for important macroeconomic variables and institutional transparency, as well as instrumenting MPCT in various ways. MPCT can be both a complement to and a substitute for institutional transparency.     

Structural Reform and Transparency in a Monetary Union

We assess how central bank transparency affects the incentives for labour market reform in a monetary union. We introduce transparency as affecting unemployment forecasts that provide information that the central bank has to the private sector and the governments. Under conditions of monetary policy opaqueness and inflation bias, we show that monetary union may induce more reform (as governments mitigate inflation surprises under idiosyncratic shocks), albeit to a lesser extent when inflation bias is only present at the national level. In the absence of inflation bias, central bank transparency, by eliminating inflation surprises in the face of idiosyncratic shocks, induces less reform in a currency union relative to monetary autonomy. Altogether, these results point to the need for a strong political commitment to reform so that member states benefit most from the combination of a credible and transparent single monetary policy with measures aimed at improving competitiveness and enhancing long-term growth.     

Can inflation targeting regimes be effective in developing countries? The Turkish experience

This paper examines the performance of Turkey's inflation targeting (IT) experience. We find the IT regime to be an effective framework. Our judgment is based on three broad conclusions supported by empirical analyses. First, fiscal stability is an effective tool for a successful monetary policy. Second, the overnight policy of the Central Bank of Turkey rate is a significant determinant of the changes in market lending rates, which is the preliminary step in the monetary transmission mechanism. Third, recent developments on the broader issue of the effectiveness of interest rate policy in controlling inflation through aggregate demand management and through other channels are encouraging. Based on our findings, we argue that the impact of policy rate changes on economic activity and inflation have become more predictable and changed in the direction in line with theory, improving the transmission capacity of monetary policy.     

Will the Sarb always Succeed in Fighting Inflation with Contractionary Policy?

The conventional view is that a monetary policy shock has both supply‐side and demand‐side effects, at least in the short run. Barth and Ramey show that the supply‐side effect of a monetary policy shock may be greater than the demand‐side effect. We argue that it is crucial for monetary authorities to understand whether an increase in expected future inflation is due to supply shocks or demand shocks before applying contractionary policy to forestall inflation. We estimate a standard New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with the cost channel of monetary policy for the South African economy to show that whether the South African Reserve Bank should apply contractionary policy to fight inflation depends critically on the nature of the disturbance. If an increase in expected future inflation is mainly due to supply shocks, the South African Reserve Bank should not apply contractionary policy to fight inflation, as this would lead to a persistent increase in inflation and a greater loss in output. Our estimation results also show that with a moderate level of cost‐channel effect and nominal rigidities, a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with the cost channel of monetary policy is able to mimic the price puzzle produced by an estimated vector autoregressive model.     

Inflation Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in China

This paper uses a stochastic volatility model structural break tests with unknown point, and a counterfactual simulation method to discuss the significant decline in inflation uncertainty in China over 1978-2009. We attempt to quantify the contributions of better monetary policy and smaller structural shocks （including demand, supply and policy impacts） on the reduced inflation uncertainty. Empirical results in the present paper suggest that improved monetary policy accounts for only a small fraction of the reduction in inflation uncertainty from the pre-1997 period to the post-1997 period in China. The bulk of the significant moderation in inflation uncertainty arises from smaller shocks. This finding indicates that the quiescence of inflation in China over the past decade could well be followed by a return to a more turbulent inflation era. Therefore, the use of preemptive monetary policy to anchor inflationary expectations and keep moderate inflation uncertainty is warranted.     

基于非对称通胀偏好的最优货币政策规则

与传统的L-Q货币政策分析框架相异,本文通过Linex函数,在央行损失函数中引入非对称通胀目标偏好。新的货币政策动态优化模型分析结果表明,最优货币政策规则中,名义利率对通胀的反应是非线性的,利率工具不仅对通胀水平作出反应,而且对通胀的波动性也作出反应,利率对通胀的变化还产生符号与大小上的非对称。     

Performance of Core Inflation Measures

This paper assesses the performance of core inflation measures based on the structural VAR approach. Since core or monetary inflation is not directly observable, we develop a monetary general equilibrium model that fits real aggregated European data and we use this model to generate time series for headline as well as core inflation. For five different schemes which attempt to identify core inflation within a VAR framework it is investigated whether the estimated core inflation series recover the true series sufficiently precise in order to be useful for monetary policy.     

Money demand in the West African economic and monetary union - the problems of aggregation

Regional monetary integration, financial liberalisation andthe adoption of indirect policy instruments continue to changethe conditions for monetary policy in the West African Economicand Monetary Union (WAEMU). While the identification of a stablemoney demand relationship has become a crucial element for monetarypolicy, differences in economic behaviour between Côted'Ivoire and the remaining countries may induce instabilityat the aggregate level. This paper analyses the demand for moneyfor the entire WAEMU, the six smaller member countries, andCôte d'Ivoire. A stable aggregate money demand functionis identified and interpreted in light of the results for thesub-regional estimations.     

Evidence on the Effects of Money Growth on Inflation with Regime Switching

Since the latter half of 2010, a new round of inflation has gradually been manifesting in China. The debate regarding whether excess money supply is responsible for this inflation has attracted scholars to investigate the effects of money growth on inflation. In this paper, we use correlation analysis to confirm the comovement between growth of monetary aggregates and inflation. We explore the asymmetric effects of monetary policy on inflation using the Markov regime‐switching model. The empirical results show that monetary policy can be more effective in curbing inflation in a high inflation state than in boosting the price level in a low inflation state. However, simply tightening the money supply might not be sufficient to suppress the price level. To this end, the Chinese Government should adopt other policies, such as supply stabilization policies, to help suppress the price level. Our study can help policy‐makers to determine the actual economic state and provides some policy implications for the current inflation.     

House Prices and the Stance of Monetary Policy: The Case of Korea

Abstract

This paper is an empirical investigation on whether the Bank of Korea should respond to the housing price developments in conducting monetary policy. For that aim, we construct a small scale empirical model of the Korean economy, simulate the estimated model with a set of alternative monetary policy rules, and compare the stabilization performances of those rules. There turns out to be ample room for further stabilization of inflation and output, if the central bank shifts from the historically conducted monetary policy rule to the optimal rule. The stabilization gains under the optimal rule, however, are not attributable to additional policy indicators (such as housing price inflation) the optimal rule involves. Rather, the optimal rule improves upon the historical one because the former takes a quite different reaction scheme toward the historical policy indicators. Moreover, as long as the Bank of Korea maintains appropriate reactions to the historical policy indicators, housing price inflation does not contain much extra information for further stabilization     

Political business cycles and monetary policy revisited–an application of a two-dimensional asymmetric Taylor reaction function

This paper uses two-dimensional asymmetric Taylor reaction functions for 16 OECD-countries to account for different reactions to the inflation rate and output by central banks before or after an election of the fiscal authorities in the respective country. Important for such an investigation is not only the period before or after an election takes place but also whether the inflation rate and output are below or above their target or potential value because this information shows whether the central bank systematically deviates from the Taylor rule. Using a Panel-GMM we observe that in the OECD-countries there are political business cycles in monetary policy with respect to the inflation and output response. However, the supporting time horizon differs between both exogenous indicators and state of variables.     

Structural Asymmetries and the Optimal Monetary Policy Instrument of the European Central Bank

Although the existence of differences in economic structure across European countries is well known, their implications for the conduct of the single monetary policy in Stage Three of EMU have not yet been analyzed. This paper explores the issue on the basis of a two-country, rational-expectations, stochastic model characterized by asymmetric structural equations and a general formulation for monetary policy. Only if financial shocks are the main source of instability can heterogeneity in structures be neglected. When real shocks to aggregate demand prevail, their geographical distribution and the difference in the elasticity of aggregate supply are the key factors governing the response to structural differences. When supply shocks predominate, irrespective of their geographical distribution monetary policy should lean against the wind with more determination than if countries were identical. Differences in the transmission lag of monetary policy or some concern for growth when pursuing price stabilization reduce the size of the correction in monetary policy called for by structural asymmetries.