商业银行货币流动性过剩、信贷扩张与资产泡沫

中国经济近年来呈现高增长和低通胀的基本特征，被誉为是中国经济最好的时期之一。然而，高增长和低通胀的宏观环境往往是催生资产价格泡沫的摇篮。国际经验显示，高增长低通胀环境滋生资产价格泡沫具有普遍性。20世纪主要国家资产价格大幅攀升的时期，通常也是经济周期处于高增长和低通胀的阶段。但随着通货膨胀的出现，货币当局不得不加息，最终刺破资产价格泡沫。因此，股票与房地产资产价格问题目前备受国内外关注。流动性是资产在短期内以低成本完成市场交易的能力。资产的流动性好，价格稳定，投资者的交易成本低。因而，流动性会影响投资者对资产的定价。     

货币政策应对资产价格泡沫新议

结合美国经济数据,对次贷危机前美联储信奉的“货币政策无需直接应对资产价格泡沫”的主流理论进行了反思,基于对资产价格泡沫的成本、可识别性以及应对方式的分析,笔者认为,资产价格泡沫破裂可能带来高成本,而资产泡沫可以渐进识别,中央银行应当直接针对资产价格泡沫风险采取货币政策措施,但这种直接应对不应当是机械的,其目的应当是防止...     

我国资产价格泡沫的形成机制及调控建议

当前中国经济出现了以股市和房地产为载体的资产价格泡沫。本文研究了这一资产价格泡沫的形成机制,认为其根本原因在于中国经济内外失衡,而由此产生的流动性过剩和国际资本流入则是资产价格飙升的直接原因。为避免资产价格泡沫破灭带来的严重后果,本文提出了促进消费实现经济内外均衡、转变投融资体制、完善汇率制度、加强金融监管等宏微观调控建议。     

吹大的资产价格泡沫

伴随着2009年银行信贷的超高速增长,尽管银行的充足资本率、流动性及减值准备等都很充足,但同样也推高了资产泡沫,尤其是房地产泡沫。银监会要出手制止部分银行贷款流向股市及楼市投机活动。     

当前我国流动性过剩与资产价格泡沫的关联性分析

当前我国宏观经济面临严重的流动性过剩和资产价格泡沫问题。流动性过剩对于我国经济的不利影响不言而喻,而股票价格泡沫和房地产价格泡沫更是涉及百姓财富,成为整个社会关注的焦点问题。因此,分析和解决流动性过剩和资产价格泡沫问题,就不得不剖析流动性过剩与资产价格泡沫之间的关联性,引发对我国当前流动性过剩与资产价格泡沫问题的新探索。     

上证指数泡沫的实证研究

资产泡沫作为一种经济现象,它的产生、形成和发展是有其制度根源的。货币制度、信用制度和银行制度都从不同的方面为金融泡沫的形成和发展提供了可能性。而在现代市场经济中,应当将金融泡沫看作是中性的,是不能用＂好＂与＂不好＂来作价值判断的经济现象。目前测定资产泡沫的两种检验方法,基于基本面的检验方法和与基本面无关的检验方法。由于基于基本面的检验方法有诸多的问题,所以文章重点介绍与基本面无关的检验方法,包括游程持续期检验、证据观察法检验,以此来验证我国上海股票市场是否存在资产泡沫。     

人物

樊纲 中国经济“二次探底”不会发生 “房价从来都是算资产价格,而不是消费品价格,所以我们应防范资产泡沫。”樊纲说,最近30年的历史证明,由通胀引发的危机、动荡其实很少。从日本经济泡沫破灭,到亚洲金融危机,到这次的美国次贷危机引发金融风暴,包括迪拜危机,都是资产泡沫引发的问题。     

金融自由化对资产泡沫影响探析

中国改革开放的历程已经超过40年，与日本20世纪七八十年代经济高速发展时期有很多相似的地方。例如，经济高速发展，都是出口导向型国家，同时与美国有贸易摩擦，资产市场出现泡沫。日本在泡沫经济发生之前进行了一系列金融自由化改革，直接或间接地影响了日本资产泡沫的形成，而我国目前正面临着金融自由化的问题，所以本文研究并分析了日本当时金融自由化改革对资产泡沫的影响，可以作为今后我国进行金融自由化改革的参考。     

资产价格泡沫的货币政策因素相关研究进展

资产价格泡沫与货币政策的关系近年来引起金融学术界的广泛关注。文章以资产价格泡沫产生和破灭过程中的货币政策因素为线索,回顾和梳理了相关理论进展,重点探讨了货币政策对资产价格泡沫的影响,并对该领域近几年的前沿研究进行总结和展望。     

明年 中国楼市股市难大升大降

政府希望在发展中解决问题——做实泡沫。通过转变经济增长模式,使得家庭财富日渐殷实,随着财富开始从政府和国有部门流向家庭,高悬的资产泡沫也就有了软着陆的可能。     

Safe asset shortages and asset price bubbles

We build a model economy in which a shortage of safe assets can create conditions for intrinsically useless ‘safe’ bubble assets to circulate at a positive price. Our environment features infinitely lived individuals who are not subject to credit constraints but who face uninsurable idiosyncratic production risk. Bubbly equilibria exist when safe assets offer real returns below the growth rate of the economy. Bubble assets circulate at a positive price only if they offer returns which are safe relative to production returns. These ‘safe’ bubbles reduce consumption volatility but exert a contractionary effect on the economy.     

Rational asset pricing bubbles and debt constraints

Rational price bubble arises when the price of an asset exceeds the asset’s fundamental value, that is, the present value of future dividend payments. The important result of Santos and Woodford (1997) says that price bubbles cannot exist in equilibrium in the standard dynamic asset pricing model with rational agents facing borrowing constraints as long as assets are in strictly positive supply and the present value of total future resources is finite. This paper explores the possibility of asset price bubbles under endogenous debt constraints induced by limited enforcement of debt repayment. Equilibria with endogenous debt constraints are prone to have infinite present value of total resources. We show that asset price bubbles are likely to exist in such equilibria. Further, we demonstrate that there always exist equilibria with price bubbles on assets in zero supply.     

A review of Phillips-type right-tailed unit root bubble detection tests

Recent developments on the right-tailed unit root tests of Phillips et al., which are used to date stamp the origination and collapse dates of asset price bubbles, have generated considerable interest. This paper provides a review for both empirical researchers that adopt these new econometric tools to detect the presence of asset price bubbles, and theoretical papers that extend these testing procedures. This paper also uses the psymonitor package in R to demonstrate the practical use of such tests using an example based on data for British Railway Mania of the 1840s.     

境内上市公司创业板分拆上市的价值创造机制

境内上市公司分拆上市到创业板的过程分为分拆重组和上市到创业板两个阶段。分拆前后交易成本和组织成本的变化说明分拆后企业总体的效率得到了提高。分拆后上市的价值创造机制主要体现在信息公开化程度的提高、对成长型业务资产组成长价值的重估和成长型业务独立性的建立三个方面。     

基于公允价值的政府资产与负债计价研究

本文介绍了我国政府会计中资产与负债的范畴及政府资产、负债计价的必要性,对现有政府资产与负债计价存在的局限性进行了探讨,指出在政府资产与负债计价中引入公允价值将成为未来发展趋势。     

Diagnosing housing fever with an econometric thermometer

Housing fever is a popular term to describe an overheated housing market or housing price bubble. Like other financial asset bubbles, housing fever can inflict harm on the real economy, as indeed the U.S. housing bubble did in the period following 2006 leading up to the general financial crisis and great recession. One contribution that econometricians can make to minimize the harm created by a housing bubble is to provide a quantitative “thermometer” for diagnosing ongoing housing fever. Early diagnosis can enable prompt and effective policy action that reduces long-term damage to the real economy. This paper provides a selective review of the relevant literature on econometric methods for identifying housing bubbles together with some new methods of research and an empirical application. We first present a technical definition of a housing bubble that facilitates empirical work and discuss significant difficulties encountered in practical work and the solutions that have been proposed in the past literature. A major challenge in all econometric identification procedures is to assess prices in relation to fundamentals, which requires measurement of fundamentals. One solution to address this challenge is to estimate the fundamental component from an underlying structural relationship involving measurable variables. A second aim of the paper is to improve the estimation accuracy of fundamentals by means of an easy-to-implement reduced-form approach. Since many of the relevant variables that determine fundamentals are nonstationary and interdependent we use the endogenous instrumental variable based method (IVX) to estimate the reduced-form model to reduce the finite sample bias which arises from highly persistent regressors and endogeneity. The recursive evolving test proposed by Phillips, Shi, and Yu (PSY) is applied to the estimated nonfundamental component for the identification of speculative bubbles. The new bubble test developed here is referred to as PSY-IVX. An empirical application to the eight Australian capital city housing markets over the period 1999–2017 shows that bubble testing results are sensitive to different ways of controlling for fundamentals and highlights the importance of accurate estimation of these housing market fundamentals.     

知识资产会计核算初探

知识资产是现代经济学对生产要素不断扩展内涵所赋予技术、教育、管理、信息等知识资本以"资产"的含义。体现在企业会计核算中,分别表现为技术资产、人力资产、文化资产、信息资产、土地使用权等等。会计作为一门方法论的科学,应该以其技术属性不断地适应和服务于经济社会发展的需要。本文试图通过对知识经济带给企业的知识资产的分类剖析,初步探讨对其进行会计确认、计量和核算的方法。     

基于RFID技术的研究与应用

目前很多企业和高校都搭建了ERP系统,笔者研究了常见的SAP-ERP系统,发现这个系统主要着眼于财务管理,而在实物管理上功能较弱,为满足企业和高校对资产管理的实际需要,本文基于RFID技术特点,对其在资产管理系统中的建设给予了整体解决方案和实践总结。     

企业绿色品牌资产价值评价体系的构建

随着经济全球化,企业发展有了更高的追求,消费者也对企业有了更高的要求。在这个飞速发展的市场中,人类赖以生存的自然环境日益恶劣,因此,环境的保护成为人类当务之急。在这种环境下,人们在选择品牌产品的同时更加趋向绿色安全环保,而绿色品牌资产提倡的就是一种基于人与自然环境和谐生存、共同持续发展的思想理念下的品牌资产,对于企业的发展来讲,绿色品牌资产价值的评价显得尤为重要。本文在结合前人研究品牌资产价值的基础上,针对绿色品牌的特点进行资产价值的评价,评价的结果可以帮助企业更有针对性的确立企业的战略竞争定位、核心竞争力以及企业文化。     

Asset bubbles and borrowing constraints

In this paper, we study the existence of asset bubbles in an overlapping generations economy à la Tirole [Tirole, J., 1985. Asset bubbles and overlapping generations. Econometrica 53, 1499–1528] with borrowing constraints. Deriving a condition for the existence of equilibrium paths with bubbles, we demonstrate that (i) a monetary steady state (a steady state with bubbles) is constrained dynamically inefficient, whereas capital in the monetary steady state is underaccumulating relative to the quasi-golden rule, (ii) there exists a government intervention which corrects the constrained dynamic inefficiency, and (iii) for some parameter values, such a government intervention reduces the utilities of agents with high productivity, while it increases per capita consumption.