共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 46 毫秒
1.
Jim Clayton David C. Ling Andy Naranjo 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2009,38(1):5-37
This paper investigates the role of fundamentals and investor sentiment in commercial real estate valuation. In real estate
markets, heterogeneous properties trade in illiquid, highly segmented and informationally inefficient local markets. Moreover,
the inability to short sell private real estate restricts the ability of sophisticated traders to enter the market and eliminate
mispricing. These characteristics would seem to render private real estate markets highly susceptible to sentiment-induced
mispricing. Using error correction models to carefully model potential lags in the adjustment process, this paper extends
previous work on cap rate dynamics by examining the extent to which fundamentals and investor sentiment help to explain the
time-series variation in national-level cap rates. We find evidence that investor sentiment impacts pricing, even after controlling
for changes in expected rental growth, equity risk premiums, T-bond yields, and lagged adjustments from long run equilibrium.
相似文献
Andy NaranjoEmail: |
2.
Patricia Fraser Martin Hoesli Lynn McAlevey 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2008,37(1):71-91
This paper studies actual (real) house prices relative to fundamental (real) house values in New Zealand for the period 1970–2005.
Utilizing a dynamic present value model, we find disparities between actual and fundamental house prices in the early 1970s
and 1980s and from 2000 to date. We model the bubble component that is related to fundamentals (the intrinsic component),
making it possible to highlight whether a bubble still exists after that component is accounted for. We then analyze any remaining
bubble to detect any momentum behavior. Much of the overvaluation of the housing market is found to be due to price dynamics
rather than an overreaction to fundamentals.
相似文献
Lynn McAleveyEmail: |
3.
Sophocles N. Brissimis Thomas Vlassopoulos 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2009,39(2):146-164
Although the close empirical relationship between the evolution of mortgage lending and housing prices is well established
in the literature, the direction of causation is less clear from a theoretical standpoint. We apply multivariate cointegration
techniques in order to address this issue empirically for the Greek economy. Our results, based on a cointegration relationship
that we identify as a mortgage loan demand equation, indicate that housing prices do not adjust to disequilibria in the market
for housing loans. This suggests that in the long run the causation does not run from mortgage lending to housing prices.
In the short run we find evidence of a contemporaneous bi-directional dependence.
相似文献
Thomas VlassopoulosEmail: |
4.
We propose two alternative models to estimate fundamental prices on real estate markets. The first model is based on a no-arbitrage
condition between renting and buying. The second model interprets the period costs as the result of market equilibrium between
housing demand and supply. We estimate both models for the USA, the UK, Japan, Switzerland, and the Netherlands. We find that
observed prices deviate substantially and for long periods from their estimated fundamental values. However, we find some
evidence that, in the long-run, actual prices tend to return to their fundamental values progressively. This result is due
to both impulse–response functions and forecast analyses. In particular, we find that using the fundamental price significantly
increases the accuracy of out-of-sample long-term forecasts of the price.
相似文献
Christian HottEmail: |
5.
J. D. Benjamin P. Chinloy G. D. Jud D. T. Winkler 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2007,35(1):95-110
The decision to work and its levels of intensity are estimated for the real estate brokerage industry where workers can set
their own hours. A three-stage model of the brokerage labor market is presented with decisions made recursively between full-
and part-time status, wage offers and hours worked. The application is to data from a cross-sectional survey of 6,842 real
estate licensees in the United States for 1999. Conditional on self-selection, an expected wage for real estate licensees
is estimated given skills and personal characteristics. That expected wage enters the supply-side equation for the number
of hours worked. The findings indicate that skills such as education, experience and licensee status are related to higher
wages, but there is a negative self-selection in wages: part-time workers have higher unmeasured skills. Schooling and experience
decreases hours worked, consistent with increasing efficiency. The resulting labor supply elasticity with respect to the wage
is 0.24.
相似文献
D. T. WinklerEmail: |
6.
Geoffrey K. Turnbull Jonathan Dombrow 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2007,35(1):57-76
This study examines how individual agents affect house selling prices and time on the market while controlling for brokerage
firm-specific effects as well as supply and demand conditions that vary by neighborhood. Firm size effects disappear once
firm specialization and agent characteristics are taken into account but geographic concentration by firms leads to higher
selling prices. For individual agents, neither sex nor selling own listings affects price or selling time, but there are gains
from partnering transactions across firms. Agents who specialize in listing properties obtain higher prices for their sellers
while those who specialize in selling obtain lower prices for their buyers. Houses nearer to other transactions of an agent
sell for higher prices. Finally, greater scale of listing and selling activity by an agent tends to lower selling price or
lengthen the time on the market.
相似文献
Geoffrey K. TurnbullEmail: |
7.
We advance the real-option-based empirical analysis of commercial real estate investment in three respects. First, we test
several real option implications for real estate construction that have not been examined in the commercial real estate investment
literature. In particular and in line with the predictions of real option models, we show that the effects of real interest
rate and the expected demand growth on hurdle rent become more negative when the market volatility is greater. Second, we
use a cointegrating vector of office employment and office stock to provide a better control of the demand for new construction
than traditional indicators based on real estate prices and vacancy rates. Third, whereas the existing studies focus on the
U.S. commercial real estate markets, we study two major office markets in Asia, namely Singapore and Hong Kong. We rely on
the local stock market in the two city states to derive forward-looking measures of office demand growth expectations.
相似文献
Maarten Jennen (Corresponding author)Email: |
8.
Jaroslaw Morawski Heinz Rehkugler Roland Füss 《Financial Markets and Portfolio Management》2008,22(2):101-126
This paper addresses the question of whether shares of public real estate companies should be treated as real estate or as
equity investments. Because theoretical considerations do not suffice for making such a classification, we empirically investigate
correlation structures and cointegration relationships of private and public real estate and equity markets for the United
States and the United Kingdom. Our results suggest that public real estate stocks show similarities to the general stock market
with regard to short-term return co-movements. For long-term investment horizons, the interdependence between direct and securitized
real estate is much stronger. However, in the latter case, real estate stocks substantially lead the private property markets.
相似文献
Roland FüssEmail: |
9.
In this paper we offer direct evidence that financial intermediation does impact underlying asset markets. We develop a specific
observable symptom of a banking system that underprices the put option imbedded in non-recourse asset-backed lending. Using
a dataset for 19 countries and over 500 real estate investment trusts, we find that, following a negative demand shock, the
“underpricing” economies experience far deeper asset market crashes than economies in which the put option is correctly priced.
相似文献
Susan WachterEmail: |
10.
Domino Effects Within a Housing Market: The Transmission of House Price Changes Across Quality Tiers 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Lok Sang Ho Yue Ma Donald R. Haurin 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2008,37(4):299-316
We argue that shocks to a housing market are transmitted through the hierarchy of quality tiers within a housing market. The
result is the prediction of waves of house price changes accompanied by changes in transaction volume. Our study is related
to existing models of spatial ripple effects across housing markets. The data are from the Hong Kong housing market. The findings
from Granger causality tests strongly support the argument that domino effects within a single housing market occur in response
to external shocks.
相似文献
Donald R. HaurinEmail: |
11.
Kim Hiang Liow Kim Hin David Ho Muhammad Faishal Ibrahim Ziwei Chen 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2009,39(2):202-223
We study international correlation and volatility dynamics of publicly traded real estate securities using monthly returns
from 1984 and 2006. We also examine, for comparison, the correlations among the corresponding stock markets. A multivariate
dynamic conditional correlation model captures the time-varying correlation within the full period. We confirm lower correlations
between all real estate securities market returns than those between the stock market returns themselves. Some significant
variations and structural changes in the correlation structure happened within the sample period. We detect a strong and positive
connection between real estate securities market correlations and their conditional volatilities. We also find the international
correlation structure of real estate securities and the broader stock market are linked to each other. Our results have economic
motivations regarding the potential integration of international real estate securities markets and the possibility of including
information on changing correlations and volatilities to design more optimal portfolios for international real estate securities.
相似文献
Kim Hiang LiowEmail: |
12.
In a framework where no uncertainty arises, Arnott (J Publ Econ Theor 7:27–50, 2005) investigates a neutral property taxation policy that will not affect a landowner’s choices of capital intensity and timing
of development. We investigate the same issue, but allow rents on structures to be stochastic over time. We assume that a
regulator implements taxation on capital, vacant land, and post-development property so as to expropriate a certain ratio
of pre-tax site value as well as to achieve neutrality. We find that the optimal taxation policy is to tax capital and subsidize
properties before and after development. We also investigate how this optimal policy changes in response to changes in several
exogenous forces related to demand and supply conditions of the real estate market.
相似文献
Tan Lee (Corresponding author)Email: |
13.
Christoph Hinkelmann Steve Swidler 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2008,36(1):37-52
This paper examines the use of futures contracts to hedge residential real estate price risk. We examine whether existing
futures contacts can effectively be used to offset volatility in national house prices. Little evidence of any simple systematic
relation between national prices and futures prices is found. Since house prices are not easily replicated with a portfolio
of existing futures contracts, a further implication is that the Chicago Mercantile’s introduction of a financial asset whose
value reflects house prices will help complete the market. Nevertheless, the success of the CME’s new derivative contracts
may be limited in light of state and regional house price correlations.
相似文献
Steve Swidler (Corresponding author)Email: |
14.
Spatial Dependence,Housing Submarkets,and House Price Prediction 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Steven C. Bourassa Eva Cantoni Martin Hoesli 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2007,35(2):143-160
This paper compares alternative methods of controlling for the spatial dependence of house prices in a mass appraisal context.
Explicit modeling of the error structure is characterized as a relatively fluid approach to defining housing submarkets. This
approach allows the relevant submarket to vary from house to house and for transactions involving other dwellings in each
submarket to have varying impacts depending on distance. We conclude that—for our Auckland, New Zealand, data—the gains in
accuracy from including submarket variables in an ordinary least squares specification are greater than any benefits from
using geostatistical or lattice methods. This conclusion is of practical importance, as a hedonic model with submarket dummy
variables is substantially easier to implement than spatial statistical methods.
相似文献
Martin HoesliEmail: |
15.
Ronald C. Rutherford Thomas M. Springer Abdullah Yavas 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2007,35(1):23-38
Previous research (Rutherford et al. 2005; Levitt and Syverson 2005) identify and quantify agency problems in the brokerage of single-family houses. Real estate agents are found to receive
a premium when selling their own houses in comparison to similar client-owned houses. Given the homogeneity of the condominium
market in comparison to the single-family house market, we use a large sample of condominium transactions to examine if agency
problems exist in the condominium market. Controlling for sample selection and endogeneity bias of the data, we find evidence
for a similar price premium for agent-owned condominiums. In contrast to the results for single-family houses in the same
geographic market, we find that agent-owned condominiums must stay on the market longer to receive a higher price.
相似文献
Abdullah YavasEmail: |
16.
In October 2006, the NYSE began rolling-out phase three of a four-phase plan initiate its new Hybrid trading mechanism. The
results show that this new trading platform introduced a much larger proportion of electronic transactions relative to floor
auction transactions. This migration to electronic transactions is further evidenced by a mirror shift in price discovery
from floor trades to trades marked for automatic electronic execution. In addition, the move to Hybrid trading introduced
a significant decrease in inventory control costs, as well as a noticeable increase in trade persistence. Finally, the new
trading platform has increased the speed with which orders are met, and has also decreased the proportion of executed shares
which receive price improvement.
相似文献
Yiuman TseEmail: |
17.
S. K. Wong K. W. Chau C. Y. Yiu 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2007,35(3):281-293
How shocks in one market influence the returns and volatility of other markets has been an important question for portfolio
managers. In the finance literature, many studies found evidence of volatility spillovers across international markets, as
well as between spot and futures markets. Although real estate is often regarded as a good vehicle for diversification, the
dynamics of its volatility transmission have been largely ignored. This paper provides the first study to examine volatility
spillovers between the spot and forward (pre-sale) index returns of the Hong Kong real estate market through a bivariate GARCH
model. Transaction-based indices were used so that our volatility modelling was free from any smoothing problem. Our results
showed that real estate returns exhibited volatility clustering, and the volatility of the forward market was more sensitive
to shocks than the spot market. Moreover, volatility was mainly transmitted from the forward market to the spot market, but
not vice versa.
相似文献
S. K. WongEmail: |
18.
The Dynamic Impact of Macro Shocks on Insurance Premiums 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
We develop a model that investigates the relation between insurance premiums and macroeconomic variables, including oil price,
interest rate, aggregate supply, and aggregate demand. We then use a multivariate structural vector error correction model
to distinguish the effects arising from permanent and transitory components of insurance premiums. Changes in the transitory
component indicate that our model captures key historical events. Although real shocks originating from oil price and aggregate
supply explain the behavior of insurance premiums well, we show that financial market shocks are the main driving force behind
the recent increasing volatility in insurance premiums in the U.S. market.
相似文献
Ying Sophie HuangEmail: |
19.
A recent trend in the German asset-backed securities (ABS) market is the securitization of subordinated loans and profit participation agreements (PPAs) granted to medium-sized
enterprises (MEs). This paper provides an overview of this growing market and analyzes the benefits of such transactions for
portfolio companies as well as for originators and potential investors. Simulations of 10 recent transactions indicate that
despite the relatively low interest rates charged on obligors, originators and investors can earn attractive returns at fairly
low risk. In particula, the junior tranches of these securitizations exhibit quite attractive risk-return profiles.
相似文献
Julia Hein (Corresponding author)Email: |
20.
Peter F. Colwell Carolyn A. Dehring Geoffrey K. Turnbull 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2008,37(1):1-20
Changing demographics, growing real incomes, and friendly tax laws underlie the continuing growth in demand for recreational
real estate in the US. The market for recreational property has undergone a major transformation over the past decades, with
the refinement and deepening of markets for partial property ownership vehicles. This paper represents the first to analyze
the factors underlying the demand for partial ownership interests. It develops a theory of partial ownership demand that focuses
on the roles of familiarity and location-specific human capital in mediating the consumption uncertainty associated with particular
recreation locations. Using private data from a survey of partial ownership participants, the empirical analysis yields results
consistent with the theory: factors associated with greater site-specific recreation price, like distance between the primary
residence and the recreation site and frequency of visits per week, reduce the share of ownership demanded, while factors
associated with lower consumption risk tend to increase the share of ownership demanded.
相似文献
Carolyn A. DehringEmail: |