住房特征价格指数编制方法与实证分析

一、引言 从理论上讲,编制商品价格指数的核心问题是控制商品品质的变动对价格的影响,以便获得单纯反映价格变动的指数。在过去编制物价指数的文献中,统计学家主要利用特征价格法（Ｈｅｄｏｎｉｃ Ｐｒｉｃｅ Ｍｅｔｈｏｄ）和重复交易法编制指数,实现对商品品质的控制。同重复交易法相比,特征价格法主要适用于编制生产技术复杂,销售价格较高的商品的价格指数。该方法是利用回归分析方法将商品的各项品质（或属性）的隐含价格从商品的总价格中分离出来,借此对商品的品质加以控制的一种方法。此方法从 Ｌａｎｃａｓｔｅｒ（ １９６６…     

关于我国房价与地价关系的实证分析

本文采用2003～2009年全国土地交易价格指数和房屋销售价格指数的季度数据作为样本,通过单位根检验、协整检验以及误差修正模型,研究地价对房价的影响程度,得到了反应房价和地价的长期回归模型,以及反应其短期关系的误差修正模型。     

城市居民住房支付能力研究——基于2000—2008我国10城市的经验数据

根据我国10个城市的中房指数推算各城市2000年-2008年期间的房价,利用国家城调队的城镇居民家庭收入和消费数据,计算各城市的房价收入比、住房可支付性指数、月供收入比,提出月供消费结余作为辅助判断指标,在此基础上分析各城市居民的住房支付能力,结果发现所有样本城市的房价收入比普遍较高,其中南京、武汉、深圳、成都和重庆五城市居民的住房支付能力比其他5个城市强,最后提出了相应的政策建议.     

住房流动性对房价指数的影响及其定量分析

目前中国城市住房市场不稳定程度较高,这不仅体现为房价的迅速变化,而且反映在交易量的大幅波动上,后者就是住房流动性的变化。有学者研究指出,以实际交易价格为基础的房价指数可能会低估住房市场的波动程度。为了更准确地把握住房市场的运行状态,本文借鉴美国MIT的相关技术,分析了住房流动性（交易活跃程度）对房价指数的影响,并尝试将流动性信息引入房价指数当中。我们发现,住房流动性对于房价指数有较大影响,且符合人们对于市场走势的直观判断,能够较好地反映市场转折点。     

包头房地产僵局:与政策博弈

7月的包头却看不到热火朝天的景象,相反,绝大多数在建项目都已经停工,工地、脚手架和塔吊上都看不到工人,只有个别楼盘里有三三两两的人在施工。有消息称,当地在建房地产项目中,停工的占90%。不久前,中国指数研究院发布了《2012年7月中国房地产指数系统百城价格指数报告》,调查数据显示:根据中国房地产指数系统百城价格指数对100个城市新建住宅的全样本调查数据,2012年7月,全国100个城市(新建)住宅平均价格为8717元/平方米,环比6月上涨0.33%,自上月止跌后再次环比上涨,其中70个城市环比上涨,30个城市环比下跌。类似房价反弹的消息不断传出,调控政策松动的猜测也随之而来。在上述100个样本城市中,三线城市包头7月房价比6月环比上涨0.7,同类城市中属涨幅较大的城市。那么,在数据之外,当地楼市究竟是怎样的呢?记者前往包头进行了调查。     

浅析英国房价指数统计方法

房地产行业问题是中国当前受到政策关注、公众关注最高的热点问题之一,而房价指数则成为政府和公众判断和决策的最重要信号。目前中国普遍承认的除国家统计局和国家发改委定期对外公布的房价指数外,非官方发布的房价指数统计并不能保证定期发布且权威性不足,房价信息来源相对单一。本文首先对英国现有的官方及非官方的房价指数进行系统性介绍,并提出三点评价房价指数的优劣标准,以供国内房价指数的编制者和使用者进行借鉴。     

二手房同比价格指数案例分析报告

现阶段国家对房地产的调控已经开始，与此同时，房地产开发商也面临着资金链断裂的难题，自从2008年万科宣布“房价拐点论”后，这场房价角逐的浪潮已经波及到了全国。如今的金融危机对国内实体经济的影响不容忽视，为了减缓影响和解决大学生就业问题，国家开始下调存款准备金率，鼓励银行对中小企业贷款，所有的这些措施都会随之影响着房价的变动。因此，我们选择了2009年二手房的房价同比指数为样本来源，旨在通过对历史数据的分析来预测未来房价的变化趋势。     

当前中国城市房价泡沫水平是不是已经过大?——基于对27个样本城市租房和购房成本比较的分析

本文通过租房成本和购房成本的比较,对全国27个样本城市的房价泡沫水平进行了测度分析.结果 表明:目前我国城市房地产价格泡沫化程度已相当严重,27个城市平均房价泡沫达126％;不同发展水平城市间房价泡沫率差别悬殊,一线城市泡沫最大,从一线城市至五线城市,平均泡沫率呈阶梯状降低.     

中国一线城市房地产市场辐射效应研究

近年来,我国城市房地产价格呈现出一线城市房价迅速攀升与全国城市房价普遍上涨的总体格局。本文运用空间变异VAR误差修正模型,实证分析一线城市对中西部城市房屋价格是否存在一定的辐射效应,同时厘清这种影响是正向的推动作用还是此消彼长的辐射影响,进而探讨如何在有效平抑一线城市过快上涨的房价,同时避免引起中西部城市房价可能出现的某种程度的上升,为促进房地产市场稳定健康发展提出相关政策建议。     

《楼市》杭州二手房成交指数

指数说明编制对象:杭州市区二手房成交物业。特点:以实际业务为基础,采用真实成交样本进行指数计算。通过调整模型及调整系数,将成交样本标准化,降低样本差异性对计算结果的影响,提高了成交指数对市场价格行情的客观反映能力。成交指数不仅提供反映整体市场走势,亦提供分区域、分区块的实际价格行情,提高了对客户投资决策的可参考性。依据指数计算结果编制的研究报告,结合了专业研究人员对市场的理性判断分析,更能为降低投资风险,提高投资收益提供直接帮助。     

The Valuation of Real Capital: A Random Walk down Kungsgatan

This paper analyzes the temporal pattern of prices for single-family housing. We estimate models of house price dynamics using a repeat sales framework, and we use the results to test for a random walk in asset prices. For eight large samples of housing transactions, representing essentially all house sales in Sweden during a 12-year period, we reject the hypothesis that house prices follow a random walk in favor of a model of first-order serial correlation.     

Issues in measuring a monthly house price index in New Zealand

The sale price appraisal ratio (SPAR) method, which takes the ratios of the current house prices and their previous assessed values to construct an index, has been applied in New Zealand since the 1960s. This paper uses housing market transaction data for 12 cities in New Zealand (1994–2004) to develop monthly SPAR house price indices. These indices were subjected to a variety of statistical tests and benchmarked against the comparable monthly quality controlled weighted repeat sales indices. Finally, the paper provides some useful suggestions for future research based on the SPAR index and other alternative house price indices, such as the assessed value (AV) method.     

The regulatory tax and house price appreciation in Florida

Much attention was given to the soaring price of housing that took place in different parts of the country in the 1990s and the first half of the current decade. Traditional explanations for the increase include rising land values and costs of construction, but a strand of literature, popularized by Glaeser et al. [Glaeser, Edward L., Gyourko, Joseph, Saks, Raven, 2005a. Why have housing prices gone up? National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper #11129; Glaeser, Edward L., Gyourko, Joseph, Saks, Raven, 2005b. Why is manhattan so expensive? Regulation and the rise in housing prices. The Journal of Law and Economics 48(2)], has looked at the role of land use regulations and posits that complying with them imposes a regulatory tax on housing consumers. In this paper, we apply and extend Glaeser and Gyourko’s methodology in order to estimate the regulatory tax on an individual house level in a set of Florida metropolitan areas. Our novel data address some of the quality measurement concerns raised about the Glaeser and Gyourko methodology and allow us to look at the evolution of the regulatory tax over a 10-year period. We find that the tax is an important component of sales price and that as a percentage of sales price has increased in a majority of Florida’s MSAs. In addition, we decompose the overall house price increase into land, materials and regulatory components and find that increasing stringency in the regulatory environment within Florida represents a substantial portion of the run-up in house prices in most metropolitan areas.     

Alternative value estimates of owner-occupied housing: Evidence on sample selection bias and systematic errors

Numerous econometric models have used various estimates of housing value as dependent variables. The three most common measures, in order of descending popularity, have been homeowner estimates, sales price, and assessed value. Each of these measures has limitations. The use of sales price can cause sample selection bias, while owner and tax assessor estimates are subject to measurement error. This study investigates the magnitude of the selection bias associated with sales price samples, and whether the errors in owner and assessor estimates are systematically related to independent variables typically included in estimated equations. Our most important conclusion is that the use of owner estimates may cause bias in the estimated coefficients on many independent variables.     

A house price index based on the SPAR method

Within the European Union there has been a push to provide European governments and the European Central Bank with the statistics they need for monitoring the owner-occupied sector. This paper reports on the results of a project to develop a house price index for the Netherlands. From January 2008, Kadaster, the Dutch land registry office, and Statistics Netherlands began jointly publishing house price index numbers for the whole country and for some specific dwelling types and regions. A number of special institutional features of the situation in the Netherlands contributed to the choice of index construction method. The indexes are computed using the Sale Price Appraisal Ratio (SPAR) method, which utilizes the ratios of transaction prices and previous appraisal values. We describe the SPAR method, compare it with repeat sales methods and assess the reliability of the official Dutch appraisal values. Empirical results for January 1995–March 2009 are presented. The SPAR method performs well compared to repeat sales, and the results reported will be of interest to other countries that have, or could instigate, institutional arrangements similar to those in the Netherlands.     

Empirical evidence on the reaction speeds of housing prices and sales to demand shocks

This article studies the co-movement and dynamics between price movements and transactions in the housing market using data for the period 1988–2008 from Finland. While the previous related literature examines the reactions of sales and prices to an interest rate shock only, this study investigates the responses to income and debt shocks as well. The empirical estimations show that the response of prices to demand shocks is substantially slower than that of sales. The estimated reactions of sales substantially differ from those reported in the earlier literature. The reaction patterns can create the kind of strong positive co-movement between price movements and sales volume and the kind of negative correlation between price level and sales that have been found in several housing markets.     

What is the role of the asking price for a house?

This paper considers the role of the asking price in housing transactions both theoretically and empirically. Significant fractions of housing transactions involve sales prices that are either below or above asking price, which might suggest that asking price has limited relevance. However, many housing transactions involve a sales price exactly equal to asking price (a fact that has previously drawn little notice), strongly suggesting that asking price does matter. The paper develops a model where asking price is neither a binding commitment nor a ceiling, yet still directs buyer search and impacts sales price. Using novel survey data, the paper provides empirical evidence consistent with asking price playing a directing role in buyer search. Consistent with theory, this effect is stronger for more atypical houses and in bust markets.     

Daily House Price Indices: Construction,Modeling, and Longer‐run Predictions

We construct daily house price indices for 10 major US metropolitan areas. Our calculations are based on a comprehensive database of several million residential property transactions and a standard repeat‐sales method that closely mimics the methodology of the popular monthly Case–Shiller house price indices. Our new daily house price indices exhibit dynamic features similar to those of other daily asset prices, with mild autocorrelation and strong conditional heteroskedasticity of the corresponding daily returns. A relatively simple multivariate time series model for the daily house price index returns, explicitly allowing for commonalities across cities and GARCH effects, produces forecasts of longer‐run monthly house price changes that are superior to various alternative forecast procedures based on lower‐frequency data. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Do political parties matter for local land use policies?

Despite interest in the impact of land use regulations on housing construction and housing prices, little is known about the drivers of these policies. Conventional wisdom holds that homeowners have an influence on restrictive local zoning. In this paper, we contend that the party controlling local government might make a major difference. We draw on data from a large sample of Spanish cities for the 2003–2007 political term and employ a regression discontinuity design to document that cities controlled by left-wing parties convert much less land from rural to urban uses than is the case in similar cities controlled by the right. The differences between governments on the two sides of the political spectrum are more pronounced in places with greater population heterogeneity and in those facing higher housing demand. We also present evidence suggesting that these partisan differences might ultimately impact on housing construction and housing price growth.     

房价影响因素的实证分析——以青岛市为例

运用SPSS软件,以人口、人均GDP、住房销售面积和房地产开发投资为自变量,采用2000～2009年10年的数据,建立了多元线性回归模型,对青岛市房价这一因变量进行了模拟分析。模型通过各种检验,得出了影响青岛市住房价格最重要的因素是市区人口这一结论,说明青岛市有效的需求增大,是抬高住房价格十分重要的因素,这在一定层面上说明了青岛的住宅市场的价格是比较正常的价格。